浮法玻璃行业产能利用率续增0.3个百分点至79.78%，日熔量达15.96万吨，均为年内新高。以煤制气和 石油焦为燃料的浮法玻璃周均利润均超百元，天然气为燃料的亏损幅度收窄，盈利改善促使企业维持高 开工率。华联期货分析认为："近期玻璃生产利润持续修复，供应呈低位小幅回升，但终端需求尚无明 显起色。"新湖期货则提示："短期宏观政策情绪降温，以及成本端煤价下杀的联动影响，盘面出现较大 回调。" 市场普遍预期，随着情绪回归理性，玻璃市场将重新进入基本面定价格局。新湖期货预计"后续将宽幅 震荡为主，临近交割月存在回归预期，近期整体偏空"。华联期货建议"暂时观望为主"，而瑞达期货则 提出"逢低布局多单，注意操作风险"的操作建议。后续需重点关注供应端产能变动、湖北区域现货市场 情况以及终端订单改善进度，特别是光伏玻璃面临的库存压力可能对整体市场产生持续影响。 南华期货指出，虽然当前玻璃市场供过于求，但随着传统旺季临近，下游加工企业可能提前备货，价格 下跌空间有限，建议观望为主。华泰期货分析称，玻璃企业已开始主动减产，8月计划检修产能占比达 15%，若减产执行到位，供需矛盾有望缓解，但短期仍将维持弱势震荡格局。 玻璃周一夜 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the black building materials market are still weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand and cost - side support need to be closely monitored [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, prices are expected to move closer to the real fundamentals, and the influence of demand - side changes on prices will gradually increase. Speculative funds are advised to be cautious, while hedging funds can take appropriate opportunities [11]. 3. Summary by Category Steel Products - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.031%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.470%), also with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. In the spot market, rebar prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased, while hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai increased [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall commodity market was weak. In terms of macro - factors, the Politburo meeting's stance on real estate remained unchanged, and export competitiveness weakened. Rebar speculative demand declined with price drops and inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil demand slightly recovered, production rose rapidly, and inventory slightly accumulated. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.96% (+7.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 94.81 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.92 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.88% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining, while non - mainstream country shipments increased and arrivals increased. The average daily pig iron output decreased, port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased. The steel mill profitability rate is high, and there is still demand support, while the supply growth is limited, and port inventory is trending downward [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rose 0.17% to close at 5972 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) fell 0.14% to close at 5674 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin also decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, market funds had significant differences, and prices fluctuated widely. In the long term, the fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are still in an oversupply situation, and future demand is expected to weaken [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8360 yuan/ton, down 1.65% (-140), with an increase in weighted positions. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 48980 yuan/ton, down 0.84% (-415), with a decrease in weighted positions [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, production in all major producing areas has increased, and cost support is limited. Although polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, the price may be weak in the short term. For polysilicon, prices are affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies, and are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 55 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased. The spot price of soda ash remained stable, and the domestic soda ash manufacturer inventory increased. The downstream demand for soda ash was lukewarm, and the supply slightly increased [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and in the long term, they will follow macro - sentiment. If real estate policies are introduced, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18]. Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: The prices of some coal and coke varieties increased, such as Shanxi Liulin low - sulfur coal up 50 yuan, and Ordos secondary coke up 50 yuan [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Shanzhou City has made significant progress in attracting investment and promoting industrial development, achieving a 27.44% year-on-year increase in actual domestic investment to 4.447 billion yuan from January to May [1] - The city has signed 179 new projects with a total investment of 27.994 billion yuan, focusing on five major industrial chains and six key industrial chains, particularly in the electronic information industry [1] - The city is actively enhancing its engagement with enterprises to understand their development directions and investment trends, assisting them in overcoming challenges related to labor, energy, and financing [1] Group 2 - Shanzhou City is leveraging opportunities from industrial transfer, particularly from developed eastern and southern regions, and is utilizing its external agencies for targeted investment attraction [2] - The city has successfully introduced several distinctive industrial projects, such as Zhongtian Yucheng and Guofei UAV, through collaboration with Nanjing and the Xi'an metropolitan area [2] - Innovative investment attraction models are being explored, including partnerships with government financing platforms and state-owned enterprise funds, to draw high-quality projects to Shanzhou [2]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks opened lower but closed higher, with all three major indices ending in the green. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.92% to 24,733.45 points, with a total turnover of HKD 234.68 billion [1] - The overall upward trend in Hong Kong stocks is considered healthy, shifting from previous risk-averse sentiment to improvements in fundamentals and positive policy expectations [1] Blue Chip Performance - New Oriental-S (02057) led blue-chip stocks, rising by 6.49% to HKD 36.58, contributing 2.7 points to the Hang Seng Index. Its revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter grew by 9.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) up 5.59%, Lenovo Group (00992) up 4.95%, while Xinyi Glass (00868) fell by 5.87% [2] Sector Highlights - Gold stocks performed strongly due to lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, with Shandong Gold (01787) rising by 10.7% and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) up 8.89% [3] - Semiconductor stocks also saw significant gains, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) up 8.69% and Shanghai Fudan (01385) up 5.66% [4] Stablecoin Sector - The stablecoin sector continued to decline, with Yunfeng Financial (00376) down 6.91% and Guotai Junan International (01788) down 6.48%. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's new regulations on stablecoins are expected to delay the issuance of licenses until early 2026 [5][6] Notable Stock Movements - InnoCare Pharma (02577) surged by 30.47% after announcing a partnership with NVIDIA to promote a new power architecture for AI data centers [7] - Huajian Medical (01931) rose by 20.7% following a strategic cooperation agreement with BGI [8] - China Resources Medical (01515) fell by 15.58% due to a profit warning, expecting a decline of 20% to 25% in profit for the upcoming six months [9]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 重回基本面，价格大幅下行 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-08-04 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 02 PART TWO 期货及现货行情回顾 玻璃:重回基本面，价格大幅向下 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量增加。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.96万吨，比24日+0.38%。行业开工率为75%，与24日持平；行业产能利用率为79.78%，比24日+0.3个 | | | | 百分点。本周一条前期点火的产线开始出玻璃，供应量增长，下周暂无产线存在冷修或者点火计划。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 淡季需求整体承压，短期保有韧性，且随着价格向上，部分需求被刺激，产销改善。 | | 库存 | 偏多 | 库存去化明显，企业库存5949.9万重箱，环比-239.7万重箱，环比-3.87%，同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xinyi Glass reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of the year, attributed to falling float glass prices, reduced investment income from Xinyi Solar, and increased asset impairment losses [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of the year was 9.82 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.01 billion, down 59.3% year-on-year, aligning with the earnings forecast of a 55% to 65% decline [1] Market Position and Outlook - As a leading player in the float glass industry, Xinyi Glass possesses scale and cost advantages, with diversification into automotive glass expected to support long-term growth [1] - The target price for Xinyi Glass has been slightly reduced from 9.6 HKD to 9.54 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Due to the ongoing decline in float glass prices, the average selling price assumptions for float glass have been revised downwards [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted from 0.72, 0.83, and 0.93 to 0.51, 0.62, and 0.74 respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xinyi Glass (stock code 0868.HK) reported a decline in revenue and profit for the first half of fiscal year 2025 due to weak demand and market price pressures in the glass industry, exacerbated by a significant drop in new property project areas and completions [2] Financial Performance - The company recorded a revenue of RMB 9.821 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 9.7% [2] - Gross profit was RMB 3.102 billion, with a gross margin of 31.6% [2] - Net profit amounted to RMB 1.013 billion, with a net profit margin of 10.3% [2] - The company maintained a cash balance of RMB 2.033 billion and a net capital debt ratio of 14.3% as of June 30 [2] - The board proposed an interim dividend of HKD 0.125 per share, with a payout ratio of 49.2% [2] Business Strategy - The automotive glass segment experienced steady growth driven by demand for new energy vehicles, which helped offset declines in other business areas [3] - The company focuses on cost control and global production capacity to adapt to market fluctuations [3] - Xinyi Glass is deepening collaborations with leading domestic new energy vehicle companies, emphasizing the development of smart and lightweight automotive glass products [3] - The company is expanding its overseas production bases in Malaysia and Indonesia, enhancing its market competitiveness in Asia and other regions [3]

华泰证券发表研究报告指，信义玻璃今年上半年实现收入及归母净利润分别为98.2亿与10.1亿元，按年 下降11.6%及59.3%，归母净利润符合业绩预告(按年跌55%至65%)，业绩按年下滑主因浮法玻璃价格按 年下降、信义光能投资收益下滑、以及资产减值损失增加。该行认为，公司作为浮法玻璃龙头，具备规 模和成本优势，且汽车玻璃等多元化布局有望助力公司中长期发展，维持"买入"评级，目标价由9.6港 元微降至9.54港元。考虑到浮法玻璃价格按年延续下滑趋势，该行下调信义玻璃浮法玻璃销售均价假 设，将2025至2027年每股盈利预测分别由0.72、0.83与0.93元，下调至0.51、0.62及0.74元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Xinyi Glass (00868) experienced a decline of over 3% following the release of its interim results, with a current price of HKD 7.88 and a trading volume of HKD 61.54 million [1] - Xinyi Glass reported a revenue of RMB 9.821 billion for the period, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, primarily due to the continuous decline in the average selling price of float glass products [1] - The company's net profit was RMB 1.013 billion, down 59.6% year-on-year, with earnings per share of 23.25 cents [1] Group 2 - The gross profit margin for the first half of the year decreased from 34.2% to 31.6%, mainly due to the ongoing decline in the average selling price of float glass products, although this was somewhat alleviated by a reduction in average costs of raw materials and energy [1] - The interim dividend declared was HKD 0.125, compared to HKD 0.31 in the same period last year [1] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the performance of Xinyi Glass was in line with its previous forecast but slightly below expectations due to the overall weak demand in the float and architectural glass industry [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the supply side of photovoltaic glass has begun to reduce production, and under the "anti-involution" backdrop, the supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, with the company being a leading player in photovoltaic glass with significant scale and cost advantages, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the glass industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [2][3][104][105] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the glass futures price fluctuated significantly, rising first and then falling, and basically returned to the starting point at the end of the month. The market sentiment weakened after the macro - meeting, and the market returned to fundamentals. The supply slightly decreased, the national inventory continued to decline mainly due to the positive arbitrage of cash - and - carry traders, and the profits of the three production processes improved. The order situation of small and medium - sized processing plants was still poor, and the market had a pessimistic outlook on the long - term trend of soda ash. In August, it is expected that the inventory reduction speed of enterprises will slow down, and there may be a negative feedback in the market. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract [2][104] Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The glass 2509 contract closed at 1102 yuan/ton last Friday, down 260 yuan week - on - week. As of August 1st, the market prices of 5mm float glass were 1240 yuan/ton in North China (down 10 yuan), 1220 yuan/ton in Central China (up 30 yuan), and 1310 yuan/ton in East China (up 30 yuan) [15] - **Basis and Spread**: As of August 1st, the difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 154 yuan/ton (up 76 yuan), the basis of the glass 09 contract was 98 yuan/ton (up 260 yuan), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 122 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan) [16] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern - **Profit**: For the natural - gas production process, the cost was 1595 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), and the gross profit was - 285 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan). For the coal - gas production process, the cost was 1171 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan), and the gross profit was 69 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan). For the petroleum - coke production process, the cost was 1109 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), and the gross profit was 111 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan) [21][25] - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass was 157,755 tons/day (unchanged), and there were 222 production lines in operation. The first - line of Gansu Kaisheng Daming with a daily melting volume of 600 tons was cold - repaired last week [27] - **Inventory**: As of August 1st, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 5,949.9 million weight - cases (down 239.7 million weight - cases). The inventory in South China was 965.5 million weight - cases (down 60.1 million weight - cases), in Southwest China was 1,133 million weight - cases (down 38.4 million weight - cases), and the inventory in Shahe factories was 160 million weight - cases (up 45 million weight - cases) [41] - **Deep - processing**: On July 31st, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.9% (down 2.9%), the order days for glass deep - processing at the beginning of August were 9.55 days (up 0.25 days), and the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 80% (down 46%) [43][44] - **Demand - Automotive**: In June, China's automobile production was 2.794 million vehicles (up 145,000 vehicles month - on - month and 287,000 vehicles year - on - year), and sales were 2.904 million vehicles (up 218,000 vehicles month - on - month and 352,000 vehicles year - on - year). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.111 million vehicles with a penetration rate of 53.3% [53] - **Demand - Real Estate**: In June, China's real - estate completion area was 41.8147 million square meters (down 2% year - on - year), new construction area was 71.8071 million square meters (down 9% year - on - year), construction area was 83.0189 million square meters (up 5% year - on - year), and commercial housing sales area was 105.354 million square meters (down 7% year - on - year). From July 21st to July 27th, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.61 million square meters (up 17% month - on - month and down 9% year - on - year). The real - estate development investment in June was 1.042416 trillion yuan (down 12% year - on - year) [61] - **Import and Export**: As of June, China's float glass imports were 281,100 weight - cases (down 4.6% year - on - year), and exports were 1.3961 million weight - cases (up 87.0% year - on - year) [63] - **Cost - Soda Ash**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1400 yuan/ton in North China (up 50 yuan), 1375 yuan/ton in East China (up 25 yuan), 1375 yuan/ton in Central China (up 50 yuan), and 1500 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). The basis of the soda ash 09 contract in Central China was 119 yuan/ton (up 234 yuan). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1256 yuan/ton (down 184 yuan) last Friday [68][73] - **Cost - Soda Ash Profit**: As of last Friday, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1300 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), with a gross profit of 57 yuan/ton (up 92 yuan); the co - production process cost was 1795 yuan/ton (up 93 yuan), with a gross profit of 107 yuan/ton (up 89 yuan) [75][77] - **Cost - Soda Ash Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 699,800 tons (down 24,000 tons week - on - week), including 398,700 tons of heavy soda ash (down 10,200 tons week - on - week) and 301,100 tons of light soda ash (down 13,800 tons week - on - week). The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 2790 (up 1835 week - on - week). As of August 1st, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons (down 68,800 tons week - on - week) [92] - **Cost - Soda Ash Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 418,300 tons (up 9200 tons week - on - week), the soda ash production - sales ratio was 109.83% (up 4.17% week - on - week), and the soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories in May were 25.8 days [100] 3. Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: The glass futures price fluctuated significantly in July. The supply slightly decreased, the inventory decreased due to positive arbitrage, and the profits of the three production processes improved. The order situation of processing plants was poor, and the market was pessimistic about soda ash in the long - term. In August, it is expected that the inventory reduction speed will slow down, and there may be a negative feedback [2][104] - **Operation Strategy**: Oscillating Weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract and the price support level at the beginning of last month [3][105]