1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The bond market has certain pressures, and caution should be maintained [8]. - The domestic stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, and long positions can be continued to hold [10]. - The precious metal market is expected to have significantly amplified fluctuations, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for now [13]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils lack bullish drivers but are at low valuations. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities [15]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities [18]. - The coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillatory pattern in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [20]. - The ferroalloy market has an overall surplus pressure. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider the opportunity to exit long positions on rallies [24]. - The crude oil price has a basis for rising. Investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the far - month contracts [26]. - The polyolefin market price is expected to be strong in the short term, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities [28]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be in a strong and oscillatory state [29]. - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a strong and oscillatory state [32]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a strong and oscillatory state [34]. - The urea market may be in a strong and oscillatory state in the short term [36]. - The PX price center may move up, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [39]. - The PTA price will rise in tandem with PX and oil prices, and it is advisable to operate in the low - range [40]. - The ethylene glycol price may oscillate upwards, but the high inventory may suppress the short - term increase [42]. - The short - fiber market is still driven by the cost side, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [43]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate strongly [45]. - The soda ash market may have short - term emotional fluctuations, and the disk may return to reality in the future [46]. - The glass market may oscillate slightly and strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline [49]. - The caustic soda market is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [50]. - The pulp price has insufficient upward momentum, and the port inventory suppresses the pulp price [52]. - The lithium carbonate price has strong downward support, but short - term fluctuations may increase [53]. - The copper price is under pressure and oscillating [55]. - The aluminum price is running strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [56]. - The zinc price is oscillating [58]. - The lead price is weakly oscillating [61]. - The tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to controlling risks [63]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and events [65]. - For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [66]. - For palm oil, long positions can be considered to be closed [68]. - For rapeseed oil, a bullish trading idea can be considered [72]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. - The sugar price has upward pressure due to strong domestic supply [76]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [78]. - The pig price may continue to decline in the short term, and investors can wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [80]. - For eggs, investors can hold short positions in the far - month contracts [82]. - The corn and corn starch markets may follow the corn market, and investors should wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [83]. - The log market is expected to have its industry prosperity repaired, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [86]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose 3% to 155,860 yuan/ton. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance sheet is being reshaped. The domestic production in Jiangxi is still uncertain, and the supply of the ore end may be in a tight balance. The social inventory of carbonate lithium is gradually decreasing, and the price has short - term support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [53]. 3.2 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,980 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.35%. The overseas macro - environment is complex. The supply pressure at the ore end is prominent, and the electrolytic copper output increase is limited. The demand side will show a pattern of seasonal recovery and structural differentiation. The copper price is under pressure and oscillating [55]. 3.3 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.88%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output is increasing, and the inventory is expected to accumulate to a historical high. The aluminum price is running strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [56]. 3.4 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,180 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.89%. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, and the consumption is expected to improve, but the recovery speed may be slow. The refined zinc social inventory may accumulate until the middle and late stages. The zinc price is oscillating [58]. 3.5 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The production of primary lead and secondary lead is gradually recovering, but the consumption is weak. The social inventory of primary lead has accumulated significantly, and the lead price is weakly oscillating [61]. 3.6 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 1.59% to 394,100 yuan/ton. The supply side is slightly relaxed, and the demand side shows a complex picture. The refined tin inventory is decreasing, and the tin price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [63]. 3.7 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract fell 1.49% to 135,710 yuan/ton. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the real - world consumption is not optimistic, and the primary nickel market is in an oversupply pattern. Attention should be paid to relevant policies and macro - events [65]. 3.8 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 0.28% to 2,843 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract remained flat at 8,370 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean import is slowing down. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range; the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly, and it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [66]. 3.9 Palm Oil - The palm oil futures price rebounded. The Malaysian palm oil inventory in February is expected to decline. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level. Long positions can be considered to be closed [68]. 3.10 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures closed higher. China has adjusted the tariff policy on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels. For rapeseed oil, a bullish trading idea can be considered [70]. 3.11 Cotton - The domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, and the overseas cotton market fluctuated slightly. The new - season global cotton is expected to have reduced production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The domestic cotton supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. 3.12 Sugar - The domestic Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly, and the overseas raw sugar oscillated weakly. India has revised its production forecast, which is bullish for the market. The domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and the price has upward pressure [76]. 3.13 Apple - The apple futures rose to a new high, and the spot market was stable. The current inventory is low, and the quality is poor compared with previous years. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [78]. 3.14 Pig - The main pig futures contract fell 0.18% to 11,140 yuan/ton. The supply pressure in the short term is still large, and the price may continue to decline. Investors can wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [80]. 3.15 Egg - The main egg futures contract rose 1.28% to 3,396 yuan/500kg. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Investors can hold short positions in the far - month contracts [82]. 3.16 Corn & Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.34% to 2,384 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.33% to 2,696 yuan/ton. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and the supply pressure needs to be released. The corn starch may follow the corn market [83]. 3.17 Log - The main log contract closed at 800.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.19%. The wood transportation is affected, and the industry prosperity is expected to be repaired. The log price is at a relatively high level, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 economic work is focused on improving quality and efficiency, with most risk assets rebounding. Overseas, attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, while domestically, focus on the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1]. - Overseas consumption confidence is recovering, industrial orders are showing a mixed trend, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. In the US, consumer confidence is rebounding, and core capital expenditure remains resilient, supporting industrial metals. However, policy discussions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing risk premiums [1]. - The 2026 Government Work Report has five key points: a slightly lower economic growth target, stable fiscal and monetary policies, expanding domestic demand as a key task, highlighting the "dual - carbon" goal, and continuing the "anti - involution" work. Relevant equity and commodity assets in new and old infrastructure, consumption, and green transformation are worth noting [1]. - In terms of asset allocation, the focus is on structure, and it is necessary to distinguish whether conflicts spill over. If the war does not expand, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles have relative advantages; if the conflict expands, risk assets will be under pressure, while precious metals and energy will see an increase in safe - haven premiums. Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are overweight, bonds are neutral with short - term bonds preferred, equities focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore is underweight in the black sector, and the energy and chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomy - In February, US consumer confidence rebounded, indicating consumption resilience and limiting the space for "recession trading." In December, the total factory orders declined, but excluding transportation, they increased. Non - defense capital goods (excluding aircraft) continued to expand, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, which supported industrial metals [1]. - Policy discussions around the Wash nominee are intensifying, and the risk premium is affecting the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. Coupled with the intensification of the US - Iran situation and Israeli air strikes on Iran, the Middle East situation is heating up, pushing up energy and safe - haven premiums [1]. Domestic Macroeconomy - The 2026 Government Work Report has five key points: a slightly lower economic growth target is in line with the requirement of improving economic quality and efficiency; fiscal and monetary policies are generally stable; expanding domestic demand may be the key task this year, with new and old infrastructure and consumption upgrading as the main focuses; the "dual - carbon" goal remains prominent, and the demand for green transformation - related commodities is broad; the "anti - involution" work will continue, aiming to ensure economic quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [1]. Asset Views - If the war does not expand further and energy production, transportation, and the passage of the strait are not substantially affected, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles still have relative advantages. If the conflict expands and affects global risk appetite, risk assets will be under pressure in the short term, equities and industrial metals will face pressure, and the safe - haven premiums of precious metals and energy will further increase [1]. - Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are recommended to be over - allocated, bonds are generally neutral with short - term bonds preferred, equities focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black sector is under - allocated, and the energy and chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices [1]. Market Conditions of Various Varieties - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all expected to fluctuate. Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical conflicts and other factors [1][4]. - **Shipping Sector**: Container shipping on the European route is expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical uncertainties [4]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as cost, production, and policy affecting the market [4]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as supply concerns, the US dollar index, and geopolitical conflicts influencing the prices [4]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with geopolitical situations and supply - demand relationships being the main influencing factors [4][5]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Oils, protein meals, and other agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as trade, weather, and policies affecting the market [5]. Market Fluctuations - **Financial Market**: On March 5, 2026, the CSI 300 futures rose 0.7%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures rose 0.33%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.02%. The US dollar index fell 0.27% [7]. - **Industry Index**: On March 5, 2026, the machinery industry index rose 1.46%, the electronic industry index rose 2.01%, and the national defense and military industry index rose 0.51% [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 4, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 1.45%, and COMEX gold rose 0.54% [10][11]. - **Domestic Commodities**: On March 5, 2026, the container shipping on the European route fell 9.78%, domestic gold fell 0.08%, and domestic crude oil rose 0.51% [12][13].

Group 1: Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - CME Group reduces margin requirements for precious metals, with the initial margin for COMEX 100 gold futures dropping from 9% to 7% and for COMEX 5000 silver futures from 18% to 14%, effective after the close on March 6, 2026 [11] - The Polish central bank governor proposes selling gold reserves to fund defense spending, which may further weaken gold prices. However, due to geopolitical risks, there is still demand for gold allocation. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities during price corrections [12] - Short - term precious metals are expected to be weak, with silver weaker than gold [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Fed officials are optimistic about the labor market, making short - term interest rate cuts unlikely and causing the US dollar index to rise [15] - It is recommended that the US dollar will rise in the short term [16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% - 5% [17] - A - shares have risen with the improvement of global risk appetite, but the situation in Iran is unclear, and overnight European and American stock markets have resumed their downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [18] - It is recommended to hold a low - position long - strategy for stock index futures and wait and see [19] 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran is ready to deal with US ground operations and refuses to negotiate with the US, increasing short - term geopolitical risks. If the conflict persists, inflation may rise, and the Fed's rate - cut rhythm may be suppressed. The US stock market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [22] - It is recommended to wait and see for the US stock market [23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations and 23 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The Government Work Report is slightly positive for the bond market. Bond prices are expected to rise in mid - and early March, but attention should be paid to the risk of imported inflation [24][25][27] Group 2: Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Seaborne coking coal port spot prices are stable. Supply has recovered rapidly after the holiday, but terminal demand has not started significantly. Spot prices are weak, and the market is in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to policy changes and downstream resumption of work [28][29] 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Government Work Report deploys real - estate policies for 2026. The economic growth target and macro - policy intensity are in line with market expectations, with limited incremental space. The inventory of five major varieties has increased, and the fundamentals of finished products are under pressure. However, due to low valuation and cost support, prices are expected to be in a volatile bottom - seeking state [30][31] - It is recommended to adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to undervalued opportunities [32] 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market is weakly stable. Overseas coal prices have risen, but the domestic market is not affected, and there is a large gap between domestic and foreign prices. Considering high terminal power - plant inventories and seasonal decline in daily consumption, domestic coal prices are expected to be difficult to rise in the short term [33][34] 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazil's Natal Port will start iron - ore export business in 2028. The high inventory of finished products restricts the rebound of raw materials. Ore prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to external conflicts [35] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its forecast of Argentina's soybean and corn production. Brazil exported 7.114 million tons of soybeans in February, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The USDA will release a monthly supply - and - demand report on March 10. CBOT soybeans provide strong cost support for soybean meal, but the domestic supply - and - demand situation is not optimistic [36][37][38] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The price of palm oil has the potential to rise if diesel prices remain high, but attention should be paid to risks and avoid excessive chasing [39] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are oscillating strongly. Low inventory in ports, slow release of farmers' selling pressure, and tight high - quality grain sources support prices. However, there are risks of concentrated selling of ground - stored grain in the Northeast, weak demand from downstream industries, and potential disturbances from wheat auctions. It is recommended to trade along the trend and not chase high prices [40][41] 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Bahrain Aluminium declares force majeure, and overseas demand has decreased significantly, with many transactions at a discount. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43][44] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Zulu lithium - tantalum project's flotation plant construction is progressing smoothly. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are intertwined. In the short term, it is recommended to take a bullish view, but beware of order - cutting if power demand recovers less than expected [45][46][47] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME 0 - 3 lead is at a discount, and domestic social inventory has increased. It is recommended to consider buying on dips from a unilateral perspective and wait and see from an arbitrage perspective [48][49] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME 0 - 3 zinc is at a discount, and domestic inventory has increased. Zinc prices are expected to enter a stage of volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see from a unilateral and monthly - spread arbitrage perspective and adopt a medium - term positive cross - market arbitrage strategy [50][51] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - MMG's Khoemacau copper mine starts its second - phase expansion. Copper smelting processing fees are at a historical low. Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic and cross - market positive arbitrage opportunities [52][54][55] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The "14th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes the development of artificial intelligence. The short - term supply of tin ore is gradually easing, but the supply is concentrated and vulnerable in the long term. Tin prices are under macro - level pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream purchasing and macro - situation changes [56][59][60] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The inventory of LPG ports in China has increased. The LPG market is oscillating widely. Attention should be paid to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz [61][62] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - Kuwait and Bahrain cut refinery capacities. If the Strait of Hormuz situation eases, the high - sulfur cracking spread may fall sharply. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly output of styrene has decreased slightly. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the overall trend of styrene is bullish. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the conflict and the spread of credit risks [64][65][66] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash manufacturers' inventory has continued to increase. In the medium term, a bearish view is recommended, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [68][69] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float - glass manufacturers has continued to accumulate. The glass market is under pressure, and the rebound space is limited [70][71] 2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - A container ship was hit by a shell. The near - month and far - month contracts of the European line have different trading logics. It is recommended to consider shorting on rallies for the near - month contract and focus on shorting the far - month contract [72][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral, with carbon - neutral policies controlling capacity expansion, domestic supply approaching the ceiling, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market. The macro - short - term sentiment is changeable. The basis shows a premium on the futures, and the inventory of SHFE aluminum has increased. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is downward. The main position is net long but with a decrease in long positions. In the long - term, carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and be bullish for aluminum prices. In the short - term, aluminum prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. - There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand. Bullish factors include carbon - neutral capacity control, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and interest rate cuts. Bearish factors are the unoptimistic global economy suppressing downstream consumption due to high aluminum prices and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion, domestic supply is near the ceiling, downstream demand is not strong, real - estate remains weak, and macro - short - term sentiment is changeable, evaluated as neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 25,120, the basis is 305, with a premium on the futures, evaluated as bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE aluminum inventory has increased by 58,646 tons to 355,986 tons compared to last week, evaluated as neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is downward, evaluated as neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long positions are decreasing, evaluated as bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry, being long - term bullish for aluminum prices. Due to changeable macro - sentiment, aluminum prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: The global economy is not optimistic, high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot Price**: Shanghai's yesterday's spot price was 70,770, down 375; Nanchu's was 70,690, down 450; today's Shanghai Yangtze River spot price was 70,870, down 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai's inventory was 70,798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; LME inventory (daily) was 74,750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; SHFE inventory (weekly) was 136,300 tons, an increase of 29,728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table of aluminum shows that from 2018 - 2023, there was a supply shortage in most years, with shortages of 47.61, 68.61, 14.2, 29.98, and 4.31 million tons respectively. In 2020, there was a surplus of 1.3 million tons, and in 2024, it is expected to have a surplus of 15 million tons [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall MPOB report is slightly bearish, with inventory data exceeding expectations. However, the current export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month-on-month increase, and as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2][3][4]. - The prices of oils and fats are in a range-bound consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the export and price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeds expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month-on-month increase, and as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. Neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,570, with a basis of 200, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. Bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. Bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700 [2]. Daily Viewpoints - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the supply pressure will decrease in the future. Neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,050, with a basis of -20, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. Bearish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, but the 20-day moving average is downward. Neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. Bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400 [3]. Daily Viewpoints - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the supply pressure will decrease in the future. Neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,040, with a basis of 551, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. Bullish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. Bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased. Bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stocks-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil production season is affected by tremors [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 6 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 伊朗称并未封锁霍尔木兹海峡，供应链扰动缓解担忧，有色品种集体回落， 但日内消息变化较多，尾盘再度小幅拉升，有色品种涨跌互现，沪铝继续领涨， 沪锡领跌。沪锌收一长上影线阴柱，主力收于 24520 元/吨，缩量减仓，资金 持续流出。国内两会召开期间华北地区环保限产收紧，下游消费恢复缓慢，本 周社会库存继续窄幅录增，高库存弱需求压制，现货贴水低位运行，沪市对 04 贴水 80，津市较沪市报贴水 10，广东对 04 贴水 115。后市需关注两个核心 变量：一是中东冲突时长超预期变化，通胀推高冶炼能源成本，有色板块情绪 可能反复，锌价跟随波动；二是国内下游复工进度及库存去化节奏，若 3 月中 旬后去库不及预期，旺季成色验证不足，锌价将面临情绪退潮与基本面压力的 双 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news has a limited positive impact on the expected price of the steel market. In terms of fundamentals, as time passes, the low steel production will conflict with the warming spring demand. It is expected that there may be an inflection point from weak to strong after the first ten - day period of March. Although the 4 - year - 10 - month decline cycle may be approaching the end, the subsequent rebound path is still unclear, and investors or operators need to prepare for long - term market fluctuations [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On March 5, the prices of individual rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rebounded. The rebar prices in Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, and Chongqing rose by 10 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil prices in Jinan, Fuzhou, and Nanning rose by 10 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract rose, with the J value slightly rebounding, and the K and D values continuing to rise. The daily KDJ indicator of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J value continuing to decline, the K value slightly falling back, and the D value continuing to rise. The daily MACD red bar of the rebar 2605 contract has been expanding for 2 consecutive trading days, and the daily MACD green bar of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract has been narrowing for 7 consecutive trading days [8] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: On March 5, it was reported that Iran has promised to ensure the safe passage of Chinese ships based on the long - term energy cooperation between China and Iran. There were also reports that China may urge enterprises to suspend signing new refined oil export contracts. On February 28 (local time), the US and Israel launched a military strike on Iran, seriously affecting the Hormuz Strait, an important energy transportation route, and causing a significant increase in international crude oil prices. Some steel mills in the Tangshan area have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the Two Sessions, requiring them to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with the blast furnace load to be independently reduced by no less than 30% [9][10] - Fundamentals: Two weeks after the Spring Festival, the weekly output of the five major steel products returned to a low level, the steel mill inventory reached a peak and then declined, the social inventory continued to increase significantly, and the steel mill and social inventories reached new highs since mid - April 2024 and mid - May 2024 respectively. The weekly demand has rebounded from the lowest level since late February 2024 and returned to the pre - Spring Festival level [10] - Raw materials: One week after the Spring Festival, the port iron ore inventory rebounded again and approached the record high since December 2015 set on February 6. The steel mill's iron ore inventory naturally fell back to a 23 - day available level. The shipment volume of imported iron ore in the past 4 weeks decreased by 2.6% month - on - month, and the arrival volume decreased by 15.2% month - on - month. It is expected that the arrival volume will continue to decline for 1 - 2 weeks. The steel mill's iron ore inventory has been basically flat after two consecutive weeks of decline from the high since early February last year, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. From February 23 to the end of February, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume rebounded to the normal level of 15.6 - 19.9 tons, but the steel mill's coking coal inventory has significantly declined in the past week, giving back all the increases since late November last year, and the coking plant's coking coal inventory has also significantly declined, hitting a new low since mid - October last year [10] 3.2 Industry News - The 2025 government work report proposed 109 major projects in 6 aspects in the "Outline (Draft)" to promote the implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" goals. It also proposed the main expected development goals for 2026, including an economic growth rate of 4.5% - 5%, a target for the urban surveyed unemployment rate of around 5.5%, over 12 million new urban jobs, a consumer price increase of around 2%, and a reduction of about 3.8% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP [12][13] - The 2025 government work report also mentioned measures for the real estate market, such as controlling the increment, reducing the inventory, and optimizing the supply of commercial housing, reforming the housing provident fund system, and promoting the construction of "good houses" [13] - The Shanxi delegation to the 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress plans to put forward suggestions in 8 aspects, including promoting the high - value utilization of coal and creating a national important energy and raw material base [13] - Middle East oil producers are facing production cuts due to the Iran war blocking the main export artery, and Iraq has been forced to cut production on a large scale. Morgan Stanley warns that other countries may follow suit in a few weeks [13] - The US new 15% "global import tariff" is expected to take effect this week [13] - In February, Mongolia's ETT exported 221.74 tons of coal through two ports. In February 2026, Russian railways transported 1358.8 tons of export coal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.59%. From January to February, the cumulative transportation volume of export coal was 2773.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.76%. From January to February 2026, the freight volume of the Russian railway company's transportation network was 1.74 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%, and the coal transportation volume was 52.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7% [13] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data charts on various aspects of the steel industry, including the weekly output of five major steel products, the steel mill inventory, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and May contracts, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [15][21][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The policy strength in the government work report on the day did not exceed expectations, but profit - taking orders and the rebound of the A - share market suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to decline slightly [8]. - In the fundamental aspect, the PMI in February was affected by the Spring Festival and weakened. Although the high - frequency economic indicators after the Spring Festival showed a fast resumption of production, and overseas export demand was still strong, and the implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" might boost the real - estate market in the "Golden March" season, the first - quarter economy might continue to perform well, which would dampen the market's loose expectations. The visit of Trump at the end of March might push up market risk appetite and suppress the bond market. However, the unclear situation between the US and Iran in the short term was expected to support the demand for hedging, and the policy strength and government bond supply during the Two Sessions were lower than expected, so the adjustment space of treasury bond futures should be limited. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data from January to February [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **当日行情**: The policy strength in the government work report did not exceed expectations, and profit - taking orders and the A - share rebound suppressed the bond market, leading to a slight decline in treasury bond futures [8]. - **利率现券**: The yields of major - term interest - rate spot bonds in the inter - bank market fluctuated within a narrow range. The change in the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond was within 1bp. By 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250022 was reported at 1.785%, down 0.2bp [9]. - **资金市场**: At the beginning of the month, the inter - bank capital market was loose. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open market on that day was 29.75 billion yuan. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated around 1.27%, the 7 - day capital interest rate fluctuated around 1.42%, the medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated around 1.56 - 1.58% [10]. - **结论**: The first - quarter economy might continue to perform well, which would dampen the market's loose expectations. The visit of Trump at the end of March might push up market risk appetite and suppress the bond market. However, the unclear situation between the US and Iran in the short term was expected to support the demand for hedging, and the policy strength and government bond supply during the Two Sessions were lower than expected, so the adjustment space of treasury bond futures should be limited. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data from January to February [11][12]. 3.2行业要闻 - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress opened in Beijing. The government work report put forward this year's main expected development goals, including an economic growth rate of 4.5% - 5%, a target of around 5.5% for the urban surveyed unemployment rate, over 12 million new urban jobs, a consumer price increase of around 2%, and other goals. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposed 20 main indicators in 6 aspects and 109 major projects [13][14]. - The government work report proposed to control the increment, reduce inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions, explore multiple channels to revitalize the stock of commercial housing, and encourage the acquisition of stock commercial housing for affordable housing. It also proposed to deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system and further play the role of the "guaranteed delivery" white - list system to prevent debt default risks [14]. 3.3数据概览 - **国债期货行情**: The report provided trading data of treasury bond futures on March 5, including information such as the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6]. - **货币市场**: Although not detailed in the text, it mentioned data sources related to the money market, such as SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, bank - pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and inter - bank deposit - pledged repurchase interest rate changes [32][33]. - **衍生品市场**: It mentioned Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) [37].

Report Information - Report Title: Goldtrust Futures Daily Newsletter - Date: March 6, 2026 [1] - Investment Advisory Team Members: Yao Xinghang, Zhou Zhutao, Wang Jingzheng, Zhang Zhaoju, Zhong Zhumin, Lin Jingwei, Diao Zhiguo, Yang Yanlong, Cheng Wei [26] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The current core drivers of the crude oil price increase are the Middle East conflict and the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium term, the price will depend on the supply-demand situation and the pace of geopolitical easing [2]. - A-share market opened higher in the morning,冲高 in the morning and fell back in the afternoon, showing a rebound trend. Technically, the small cycle at the 5-minute level is approaching the end, and it is expected that there will be a need for adjustment after the morning rally tomorrow [5]. - Gold showed a volatile trend during the day, and although it rebounded at the end of the session, there are signs of weakness in the short term [9]. - For iron ore, the supply is expected to be loose in the medium and long term, and the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a volatile market [11][12]. - For glass, it should be regarded as a wide-range volatile market. The daily melting is slightly reduced, and the factory inventory is accumulating during the seasonal off-season. The resumption of work progress of deep processing after the festival needs to be concerned. Technically, the recent trend is unclear [14][15]. - For methanol, about 60% of China's 14 million tons of imported methanol comes from Iran, and the influence weight of Iranian goods on the disk pricing is about 50%. Therefore, any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [17]. - For pulp, the trading sentiment in the spot market is average, the port inventory in China continues to accumulate, and it takes time to digest the inventory after the festival. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the local inversion phenomenon of double-offset paper and coated paper is serious. The futures disk has shown a range-bound consolidation trend recently [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Short-term (1 month): Geopolitical premium dominates, with WTI ranging from $72 to $78 and Brent from $78 to $85. The key variables are the navigation of the strait and the escalation of the conflict. If the situation eases, the premium will quickly decline; if the blockade intensifies, Brent may reach $90. OPEC+ will maintain production cuts in March and slightly increase production in April, with short-term supply being tight and low inventory providing support [2]. - Medium-term (2 - 3 months): The supply-demand fundamentals will return to the dominant position. In Q1 2026, the global supply surplus reached its peak, with a daily surplus of about 2.9 million barrels and an annual surplus of 2.3 - 3.7 million barrels. Only China and India have moderate growth in demand, while Europe and the United States are stagnant, and the weak manufacturing restricts the upward movement. If the geopolitical situation eases, the oil price center will move down to $65 - $75; if the conflict continues, the high-level fluctuations will intensify [2]. - Trading strategy: Strictly control stop-loss in the short term and buy on dips [3] A-share Market - The A-share market showed a rebound trend today. Technically, the small cycle at the 5-minute level is approaching the end, and it is expected that there will be a need for adjustment after the morning rally tomorrow. The morning rally tomorrow is a good opportunity to short [5] Gold - Gold showed a volatile trend during the day, and although it rebounded at the end of the session, there are signs of weakness in the short term [9] Iron Ore - The supply from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm, and the mine production capacity is in the release cycle in the medium and long term, so the supply is expected to be loose. On the demand side, steel mills resume production after the festival, but the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a volatile market [11][12] Glass - The daily melting is slightly reduced, and the factory inventory is accumulating during the seasonal off-season. The resumption of work progress of deep processing after the festival needs to be concerned. Technically, the recent trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a wide-range volatile market [14][15] Methanol - China imports about 14 million tons of methanol annually, accounting for slightly more than 10% of the total consumption (domestic production is about 92 million tons). About 60% of this 14 million tons of imports comes from Iran, and the influence weight of Iranian goods on the disk pricing is about 50%. Therefore, any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [17] Pulp - The trading sentiment in the pulp spot market is average, the port inventory in China continues to accumulate, and it takes time to digest the inventory after the festival. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the local inversion phenomenon of double-offset paper and coated paper is serious. The futures disk has shown a range-bound consolidation trend recently [19]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report outlines the main expected targets for development in 2026, including an economic growth rate of 4.5%-5%, an urban survey unemployment rate of around 5.5%, and a consumer price increase of about 2% [1] Economic Policy - The proposed fiscal deficit rate for this year is around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year [1] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan to support infrastructure and new development projects [1] Commodity Market Overview - In the futures market, domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with significant increases in crude oil, caustic soda, and pure benzene, while silver, aluminum, and gold experienced notable declines [1] Key Commodities Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose by 1.25% due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, including attacks by Israel and the U.S. and retaliatory strikes by Iran, affecting oil transport routes [2][10] - Iraq has reduced its daily oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels, with potential for further cuts due to storage capacity issues [2][10] Methanol - Methanol prices fell by 1.39%, with domestic coal-to-olefins (CTO) operating rates decreasing to 78.14%, influenced by maintenance at certain facilities [3][11] - Coastal methanol inventories reached 1.4133 million tons, up 1.04% from the previous period and 35.76% year-on-year [3][11] Financial Market Insights Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices declined, with a market turnover of 2.41 trillion yuan, indicating a shift from expectation-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics [9] - The focus is on sectors with strong earnings certainty, while speculative stocks may continue to struggle [9] Government Bonds - The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 1.79%, supported by a net liquidity injection from the central bank [10] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to bolster demand for government bonds as a safe haven [10] Industry News - The upcoming National People's Congress is set to emphasize expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with a focus on technological innovation and support for the private economy [6][7]