2、国内05合约的最终走向如何？05合约转为主力后，市场更加关注未来的动向。从期货结构看，05合约相 比01合约大概贴水100元/吨，主要是因国产糖供应在3月左右会达到最大，进口糖压力则从5月开始大幅增 加，因此05合约的压力是最大的，因此05合约后续跌至极低的价格也是存在可能性的。 2、国际市场会重新站稳15美分吗？上周国际原糖价格再度出现大幅下跌，不过周五出现大阳线，最终仍收于 15美分以下。 由于巴西糖的出口成本在15.2美分，当前糖价已经连续3次冲上该价格后被压制。整体看利多 （如泰国甘蔗收购价极低）的影响更多体现在远月，因此近月的糖价预计反弹高度也是十分有限，预计后期 15.2美分的博弈仍将持续。 中国巴西糖进口量 source： 海关总署,南华研究,同花顺 吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 巴西中南部累计糖产量季节性 source： Unica,南华研究 万吨 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 ...

南华期货LPG2026年年度展望 ——供给韧性延续，需求承压加深 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章、核心观点 观点总结 2025年内盘LPG价格呈现宽幅震荡的格局，整体价格重心下降，价格波动加剧。展望26年，我们认为需要重 点关注以下几个方面： 1）供应端：预期明年整体供应依然有韧性。中东明年虽然暂时OPEC+增产放缓，但仍有多个气田相关项目 将投入运营，预期LPG供应仍有增长趋势；美国产量在疲软的原油价格影响下，预期增速放缓，但出口终端 仍持续扩张，对出口量形成正向驱动。 2）需求端：中印作为亚洲LPG需求的主要增长引擎，增速预期也将放缓。在中国，化工行业持续低迷的利润 水平抑制了相关需求；印度方面，民用领域的普及率已逐渐接近饱和，化工需求增长相对缓慢，同时其港口 基础设施仍存在一定限制。另外，韩国裂解产能的整合退出情况也需要持续关注。 综合来看，在供应保持韧性而主力需求增长放缓的背景下，2026年全球LPG市场可能继续呈现价格重心 ...

Major Announcements - Jinshi Resources plans to acquire 15.71% equity in Noah Fluorine Chemical for 256.94 million yuan, becoming the second-largest shareholder, which aligns with its strategy to extend into high-value fine fluorine chemical sectors [4] - Victory Energy's stock has seen a significant increase of 77.22% over six consecutive trading days, leading to high volatility and potential rapid decline risks due to deviation from its fundamental business [2] - Sanxiang Impression confirms normal operations and states there are no undisclosed significant matters despite recent stock price fluctuations [3] Corporate Developments - Zaiying Pharmaceutical has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, pending approvals from regulatory bodies [5] - Nanhua Futures' overseas subsidiary has been approved as a trading and clearing member of IFSG and ICSG, enhancing its trading capabilities [6] - Xihua Technology is set to list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on December 23, 2025, with an initial public offering of 100 million shares [7] Financial Transactions - Jindalai plans to invest 30 million yuan in Zhongke Hongtai, acquiring a 10% stake, focusing on the medical robotics sector [8] - Xiamen Tungsten has redeemed 280 million yuan in principal and earned 2.75 million yuan from structured deposit products [9] - *ST Dongyi's restructuring plan has been approved by the court, allowing the company to enter the execution phase of its restructuring [10] Market Reactions - Wan Tong Development's major shareholder has had 364 million shares frozen due to loan disputes, affecting 19.28% of the total share capital [10] - Zhenghai Magnetic Materials won an international arbitration case, which will positively impact its current operating performance [11] - Shandong Heda received a favorable ruling in the U.S. on anti-dumping and countervailing duties, which will reduce tax liabilities and positively affect its financial performance [11] Regulatory Updates - Aihong Pharmaceutical's product APLD-2304 has received acceptance for medical device registration in the EU, targeting bladder cancer diagnostics [12] - Keli'er has terminated a strategic cooperation agreement due to changes in market conditions, with no significant impact on its operations [12] - Health元's subsidiary has received approval for clinical trials of a new drug targeting depression, marking a significant development in the KCNQ2/3 drug market [13]

南华期货棉花2026年度展望 ——紧平衡预期下风帆待举 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 观点概要 观点：当前新年度疆棉丰产落地，国内商业库存迅速回升，短期上方尚有供应与套保压力，但在上年度低库 存的现实基础与新年度低进口的未来预期下，国内新年度整体供应增幅缩窄，而下游国内纺纱产能扩张，新 疆纱厂维持高负荷运行，棉花刚需消费提升，内需在宏观政策支持下呈温和增长的态势，同时中美关税的下 调有利于我国纺服出口的恢复，国内棉花消费得到支撑，新年度国内棉花供需预期偏紧，棉价重心有望上 移，关注明年新疆目标价格补贴政策是否调整，新季疆棉面积尚存变数。 预测区间：郑棉13500-15500元/吨附近 风险提示：全球宏观环境、中美关税政策调整、纺企订单情况、疆棉种植政策 .. ... 郑棉价格走势图 source： 郑商所,南华研究 元/吨 1月 5月 9月 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 12000 14000 16000 18000 郑棉收盘价与国内棉花库存走势 source： wind,南华研究 元/吨 期货收 ...

东证衍生品研究院金工首席分析师：李晓辉（CTA） 金工策略周报 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：常海晴（股指期货） 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号： Z0022032 股指期货量化策略 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：常海晴（股指期货） 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 ★股指期货行情简评： 市场上周震荡，市场风格偏向大盘，上证50收涨。分行业看，金融板块贡献了上证50和沪深300主要的涨幅，电子、电力设备贡献了中证500和中 证1000主要的跌幅。 各品种成交环比上行，IF、IC、IM基差走强。(股指期货基差=期货收盘价-现货收盘价) ★股指期货基差策略推荐： 各品种基差走强，IH升水，IF维持浅贴水、IC、IM贴水收敛。当前股指期货上的套保需求依然以空头为主，预计IC、IM的深度贴水格局仍将维持， 建议关注跨期正套的交易机会。展期策略推荐多近空远。 ★股指期货套利策略跟踪： 跨 ...

南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 李欣彤 广州报道 周内（12月15日至12月19日），本周期货市场整体震荡，板块间走势分化。能源化工表现突出，贵金属 延续强势，农产品普遍走低。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周下跌0.50%、原油下跌2.66%；黑色系板块，焦煤周 上涨9.02%、铁矿石上涨2.28%；基本金属板块，沪锡周上涨3.07%、沪铜下跌1.04%、沪铝上涨0.10%； 贵金属板块，沪金周上涨1.01%、沪银上涨3.26%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周下跌1.58%、生猪下跌0.03%、 豆粕下跌1.95%、棕榈油下跌3.19%。 交易行情热点 热点一：PX、PTA期货价格逆势大涨 中信建投（601066）期货能化高级分析师李思进认为，尽管市场存在终端需求走弱的预期，但本周聚酯 产销放量，下游企业开工负荷保持稳定，叠加较高的装置检修数量，PTA基本面表现尚可。 紫金天风期货能化负责人刘思琪也印证了这一判断。她表示，从短期基本面来看，近两周PX和PTA供 需变化不大，整体表现尚可。其中，PTA主流供应商的检修时间预计持续至年后，季节性累库压力不 大；聚酯库存压力同样可控，叠加生产成本大幅反弹，聚酯产销近 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：宏观水温舒适；白银：稳步爬升 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：960-1000元/克、14500-16000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落0.22%，伦敦银回升1.98%。金银比从前周的66.6回落至65.9，10年期TIPS回升至1.92%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.16%（2年期3.48%），美元指数录得98.7。 ◆ 本周贵金属价格继续上行，周五再度创出新高，COMEX白银突破67美元/盎司，沪银触及15769元/千克，COMEX黄金则是再摸 4409美元/盎司高位。宏观层面本周进一步释放压力，非农数据失业率出现明显回升，同时CPI显著回落，使得利率进 ...

见闻财经日历 WSCN Economic Calendar w 华尔街见闻 | 时间 | | 内容 | 预期 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12月22日 周一 | | | | | | 数据 | 09:00 | 中国 12月五年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR) | | 3.5% | | 09:00 | | 中国 12月一年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR) | | 3% | | 事件 | 待定 | 十四届全国人大常委会第十九次会议12月22日至27日在京 举行 | | | | 待定 | | 华为举行nova15系列及全场景新品发布会 | | | | 12月23日 周二 | | | | | | 数据 | 21:30 | 美国 10月耐用品订单环比初值 | -1.5% 3.2% | 0.5% | | 21:30 | | 美国 三季度实际GDP年化季环比修正值 | | | | 23:00 | | 美国 12月里士满联储制造业指数 | | -15 | | 事件 | 08:30 | 澳洲联储公布12月货币政策会议纪要 | | | | 待 | | 美国政府将在12月23日发布三季度 ...

印象大红袍(02695)：香港公开发售获3397.48倍认购 每股发售价3.6港元 【新股上市】 南华期货股份(02691)：香港公开发售获1.91倍认购 每股发售价12港元 明基医院(02581)：香港公开发售获6.28倍认购 每股发售价9.34港元 华芢生物-B(02396)以下限定价 香港公开发售获791.95倍认购 【财报数据】 顺丰控股(06936)11月速运物流业务、供应链及国际业务合计收入为271.73亿元，同比增长7.85% 重庆钢铁股份(01053)拟向华宝投资发行10亿元股份 中国有色矿业(01258)进一步收购哈萨克斯坦SM Minerals 55%股本 持股比例增至70% 青岛港(06198)拟投资66.15亿元建设董家口通用码头工程 青岛港(06198)拟投资建设董家口集装箱码头一期工程 项目投资估算为约90.97亿元 远大医药(00512)用于诊断前列腺癌的创新在研放射性核素偶联药物TLX591-CDx中国 III 期临床研究成 功达到主要临床终点 【重大事项】 中国神华(01088)拟约1335.98亿元向控股股东收购资产并募集配套资金不超过200亿元 全产业链布局再 升级 中国 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The overall futures market experienced fluctuations with a divergence in performance across sectors during the week of December 15 to December 19, with energy and chemical sectors performing well while agricultural products generally declined [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil decreased by 0.50% and crude oil fell by 2.66%, while the black series saw coking coal increase by 9.02% and iron ore rise by 2.28% [1] - Precious metals maintained strength with gold rising by 1.01% and silver increasing by 3.26%, while agricultural products like eggs and palm oil saw declines of 1.58% and 3.19% respectively [1] Group 2: Polyester Market Dynamics - PX and PTA futures prices surged, reaching new highs not seen in three months, with PX hitting a peak since March and PTA surpassing 4900 yuan/ton [3] - The PTA market is experiencing a de-stocking trend, with a stable supply-demand balance and expectations of limited inventory pressure, supporting price increases [3][4] - The polyester industry maintained a weekly output of 155.72 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 86.9%, indicating stable supply conditions [3] Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices are fluctuating near historical highs, with optimistic market expectations for future price increases, as Goldman Sachs predicts a rise to 4900 USD/oz by 2026 [5] - Global gold supply increased by 3% year-on-year to 1313 tons in Q3, while demand surged, leading to upward pressure on gold prices [5] - The core factor influencing gold prices is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with recent rate cuts providing macro support for gold price increases [6] Group 4: U.S. Labor Market Insights - The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and a total of 7.83 million unemployed individuals [8][9] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, primarily in healthcare, construction, and social assistance, while transportation and federal government jobs decreased [8] - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5%, indicating a return of residents to the labor market, although the unemployment rate still rose due to challenges in job placement [9] Group 5: Inflation Data and Economic Implications - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, lower than the 3% increase in September, but the data is viewed cautiously due to issues arising from a government shutdown [10][11] - The core CPI also increased by 2.6%, but economists remain skeptical about the sustainability of this trend due to data collection challenges [10] - The Federal Reserve faces complex decisions balancing price stability and full employment, with future policy directions likely to be sensitive to upcoming economic data [11]