1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic and overseas macro - environment in China remains stable. Domestically, the approaching "Two Sessions" brings positive policy expectations that strongly support the market. Overseas, the planned visit of Trump from March 31 to April 2 and the potential Sino - US summit reduce the short - term possibility of trade risks. The risk preference of the equity market is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to continue holding long - term long positions in stock index futures [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Macro - financial Data - DRO01 closed at 1.37, down 1.71bp from the previous value; DR007 closed at 1.48, down 2.31bp [3] - GC001 closed at 1.55, unchanged; GC007 closed at 1.59, down 0.50bp [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.57, down 0.30bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50, unchanged [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.30, unchanged; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.54, down 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.79, down 2.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.05, up 1.00bp [3] - The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. The bid volume, winning bid volume were both 320.5 billion yuan. With 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal on the day was 79.5 billion yuan [3] - In February, the LPR rate remained unchanged: the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. During the week after the Spring Festival holiday (February 24 - 28), 2.2524 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Additionally, 300 billion yuan of MLF and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature on February 25 [4] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4727, down 0.19%; IF current - month contract closed at 4712, down 0.4% [5] - The SSE 50 closed at 3035, down 0.65%; IH current - month contract closed at 3035, down 0.8% [5] - The CSI 500 closed at 8557, up 0.35%; IC current - month contract closed at 8537, up 0.1% [5] - The CSI 1000 closed at 8491, up 0.76%; IM current - month contract closed at 8443, up 0.4% [5] - The trading volume of IF was 85,824, down 19.3%; the open interest was 269,977, down 4.7% [5] - The trading volume of IH was 42,698, down 19.0%; the open interest was 105,405, down 3.3% [5] - The trading volume of IC was 114,851, down 9.6%; the open interest was 290,740, down 2.6% [5] - The trading volume of IM was 145,580, down 12.6%; the open interest was 357,540, down 4.0% [5] - The turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 2.5568 trillion yuan, an increase of 75.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with electronic components, wind power equipment, communication equipment, power supply equipment, electronic chemicals, and power grid equipment sectors leading the gains, while film and television theaters, rare earths, insurance, and real estate development sectors leading the losses [5] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.15%, 3.13%, 3.80%, and 4.24% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 0.26%, - 0.32%, 0.43%, and 2.23% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 3.84%, 3.60%, 4.90%, and 5.42% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.23%, 7.95%, 8.76%, and 8.78% respectively [7]

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.38 with a 1.66 bp increase, DR007 at 1.51 with a 4.79 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.55 with a 15.50 bp decrease, GC007 at 1.59 with a 3.50 bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.02 bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.32 with a 0.77 bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.55 with a 1.29 bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.82 with a 1.42 bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.04 with a 1.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 4095 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 4000 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 95 billion yuan [4] - In February, the LPR rates remained unchanged: 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. From February 24th - 28th, 22524 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 14524 billion, 4000 billion, and 4000 billion maturing on February 24th, 25th, and 26th respectively. Also, on February 25th, 3000 billion yuan of MLF and 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature [5] Group 2: Stock Index and Futures Market - The CSI 300 rose 0.6% to 4735.9, the SSE 50 rose 0.45% to 3054.9, the CSI 500 rose 1.6% to 8527.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.52% to 8426.3. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 24812 billion yuan, an increase of 2628 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with rare earths, small metals, energy metals, real estate services, steel, non - ferrous metals, and aerospace equipment sectors leading the gains, while the film and television theater and advertising marketing sectors leading the losses [6] - IF volume was 106320 with an 8.7% increase, IF open interest was 283440 with a 6.9% increase; IH volume was 52712 with a 24.8% increase, IH open interest was 108963 with a 9.6% increase; IC volume was 126978 with a 3.0% increase, IC open interest was 298578 with a 5.7% increase; IM volume was 166542 with a 2.9% decrease, IM open interest was 372430 with a 1.9% increase [6] - The IF basis for the current - month contract was 1.50%, next - month 1.34%, current - quarter 2.67%, and next - quarter 3.60%; the IH basis was - 1.70%, - 1.00%, 0.16%, and 2.08% respectively; the IC basis was - 0.27%, 1.07%, 3.39%, and 4.40% respectively; the IM basis was 3.90%, 4.43%, 6.80%, and 7.56% respectively [8] Group 3: Real Estate Policy and Market Outlook - Shanghai launched post - holiday real - estate regulatory optimization measures, shortening the social security or tax payment period for non - local residents to buy houses in the inner - ring area to 1 year, increasing the maximum first - home provident fund loan limit from 1.6 million yuan to 2.4 million yuan, and further increasing it to 3.24 million yuan for multi - child families or those buying green buildings.沪籍 families buying their only new home are exempt from property tax [7] - Driven by favorable policies, the stock index is running strongly. With the expected policy benefits from the upcoming "Two Sessions", the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly. Long - term and medium - term long positions in stock index futures are recommended to be held [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index continued its narrow - range oscillation yesterday. In the short term, after a continuous adjustment, the index rebounded and entered an oscillation phase. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern. Although the domestic policy environment provides support for the index and overseas pressure factors have marginally eased, the pre - holiday market risk appetite has decreased, sector rotation has accelerated, and the daily trading volume of A - shares has fallen to the range of 2 - 2.3 trillion yuan, which means it is more difficult for the pre - holiday index to make a strong upward attack, and it is more likely to accumulate momentum for subsequent upward movement through oscillation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: The closing price of DR001 was 1.37 with a 0.49bp increase, DR007 was 1.54 with a 1.87bp decrease, GC001 was 1.52 with a 10.00bp decrease, GC007 was 1.65 with a 3.00bp decrease, SHBOR 3M was 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond was 1.31 with no change, 5 - year treasury bond was 1.47 with a 0.75bp decrease, 10 - year treasury bond was 1.79 with a 0.75bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond was 4.16 with a 6.00bp decrease [5] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 750 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, the net daily injection was 4035 billion yuan. This week, 4055 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase will mature on Friday [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The closing price of IF当月 decreased by 0.3% to 4716, IH当月 remained unchanged at 3092, IC当月 increased by 0.4% to 8342, and IM当月 increased by 0.1% to 8260. The trading volume of IF decreased by 4.4% to 62400, IH increased by 4.6% to 30833, IC increased by 7.5% to 101790, and IM increased by 0.3% to 133571. The open interest of IF decreased by 0.2% to 281980, IH increased by 0.3% to 101315, IC decreased by 0.6% to 294295, and IM increased by 0.4% to 380005 [7] - **Stock Market**: The closing price of CSI 300 decreased by 0.22% to 4713.8, SSE 50 increased by 0.03% to 3088.5, CSI 500 increased by 0.23% to 8325.8, and CSI 1000 decreased by 0.13% to 8239.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Beijing stock markets was 20012 billion yuan, a decrease of 1237 billion yuan from the previous day. Glass fiber, energy metals, small metals, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries led the gains, while cultural media, education, tourism hotels, and aerospace industries led the losses [8] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF were - 2.05% for the current - month contract, - 0.21% for the next - month contract, 2.05% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.11% for the next - quarter contract; IH were - 4.13%, - 0.94%, 0.04%, and 1.89% respectively; IC were - 8.08%, - 1.25%, 3.10%, and 4.17% respectively; IM were - 10.18%, - 0.18%, 5.29%, and 6.48% respectively [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, it is expected that stock index futures will fluctuate strongly before the Spring Festival, accumulating strength for further upward movement [6] - In the long run, in the context of low - interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds are generally abundant, and the economy is in the process of bottom - building. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of stock indices is expected to continue [6] - The strategy is to continue to hold long positions in stock indices for the medium - to - long - term [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Macro - financial Market Review - The central bank conducted 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net investment on the day was 38 billion yuan [4] - This week, 405.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will also mature on Friday [4] 3.2 Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DRO01 | 1.27 | - 0.24 | | DR007 | 1.54 | 7.68 | | GC001 | 1.57 | 28.50 | | GC007 | 1.66 | 6.00 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.00 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.31 | - 0.50 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.55 | - 0.75 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.79 | - 0.85 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 1.00 | 0.00 | [4] 3.3 Stock Index Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 rose 1.63% to 4719.1, the SSE 50 rose 1.45% to 3081.8, the CSI 500 rose 2.02% to 8311.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.26% to 8233.8 [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Beijing stock markets reached 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 106.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with only the mining and gas sectors falling [5] 3.4 Stock Index Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | Volume Change (%) | Open Interest Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4719 | 1.63 | - | - | | IF Current Month | 4723 | 1.8 | - 23.3 | - 1.9 | | SSE 50 | 3082 | 1.45 | - | - | | IH Current Month | 3084 | 1.5 | - 25.8 | - 5.2 | | CSI 500 | 8311 | 2.02 | - | - | | IC Current Month | 8322 | 2.2 | - 31.3 | - 3.7 | | CSI 1000 | 8234 | 2.26 | - | - | | IM Current Month | 8256 | 29 | - 23.0 | - 4.2 | [5] 3.5 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount | Variety | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | - 2.49% | - 0.43% | 1.66% | 2.86% | | IH Premium/Discount | - 1.96% | - 0.67% | 0.25% | 1.80% | | IC Premium/Discount | - 4.28% | - 0.04% | 3.25% | 4.29% | | IM Premium/Discount | - 8.96% | 0.13% | 5.82% | 6.89% | [7]

Group 1: Interest Rate and Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.28 with a -4.41bp change, DR007 at 1.46 with a -2.08bp change, GC001 at 1.29 with a -13.50bp change, GC007 at 1.60 with a 2.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a -0.05bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.32 with a 0.44bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.56 with a -0.69bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a -0.41bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.22 with a 1.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 4055 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week, with 3000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday and Friday respectively [4] - This week, 4055 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 750 billion, 1055 billion, 750 billion, 1185 billion, and 315 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts: CSI 300 closed at 4644 with a -0.57% change, IF current month at 4640 with a -%0.7 change; SSE 50 at 3038 with a -0.69% change, IH current month at 3037 with a -%0.9 change; CSI 500 at 8146 with no change and IC current month at 814 with a -0.%1 change; CSI 1000 at 8052 with a -0.20% change, IM current month at at 8027 with a -0.6% change [6] - The trading volume and open interest changes of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 118040 with a 1.8% change, IF open interest was at 29 with a -%1. change; IH trading volume was 55 with a 2. change, IH open interest was at 109 with a 0. change; IC trading volume was 19 with no change, IC open interest was at 31 with a -%2. change; IM trading volume was 24 with a 4. change, IM open interest was at 40 with a 1. change [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 1.33% to 4643.6, SSE 50 fell 0.93% to 3037.9, CSI 500 fell 2.68% to 8146.4, and CSI 1000 fell 2.46% to 8051.6. A - share trading volume shrank significantly due to pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment. The daily trading volumes last week were 26066 billion, 25656 billion, 25033 billion, 21943 billion, and 21635 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 6565.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - In the Shenwan primary industry index, food and beverage (4.3%), power equipment (2.2%), comprehensive (2%), transportation (1.9%), and banking (1.7%) led the gains last week, while non - ferrous metals (-8.5%), communication (-6.9%), electronics (-5.2%), steel (-3.3%), and computer (-3.3%) led the losses [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - During the US stock earnings season, the performance of the AI industry chain is under test, and US stock volatility has increased. Chip giants like NVIDIA and AMD have seen continuous stock price adjustments, and internet giants like Google and Amazon have raised market concerns due to poor profit efficiency and under - expected performance [7] - Last week, the domestic news was relatively calm, the selling pace of broad - based ETFs slowed down, indicating a significant weakening of regulatory control. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the total A - share trading volume narrowed significantly to around 2.1 billion yuan. Overseas, the increased volatility of non - ferrous metals and US technology stocks has had a significant impact on domestic non - ferrous and technology sectors [7] - In the short term, after a volume - shrinking rebound, the stock index is expected to consolidate through oscillations to accumulate strength for further upward movement. In the long run, in the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds are generally abundant, and as the economy is in the process of bottom - building, the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end. The strategy is that stock index pullbacks may be opportunities to enter long positions [7] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts for different delivery months are provided, with specific values for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [8]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it provide details on their construction or evaluation [1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios [5][6][19][28][40][49][55] - The analysis includes comparisons of indices against their historical averages, standard deviations, and percentile rankings over the past 1 and 5 years, providing insights into valuation and market sentiment [32][43][45][54] - Key indices analyzed include the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, CSI All Share, and ChiNext Index, with detailed metrics such as risk premiums, PE-TTM values, dividend yields, and net asset ratios provided for each index [13][19][32][45][54][58] - The report highlights the relative valuation and investment attractiveness of these indices based on their historical positioning and current market conditions, but does not delve into specific quantitative factor or model construction [43][45][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the stock index was weakly volatile in the morning and rallied significantly in the afternoon, with the Shanghai 50 leading the gains driven by the coal and real estate sectors. The macro news was calm, precious metal prices rebounded, and market sentiment improved. In the short - term, it's necessary to focus on whether the panic caused by overseas liquidity tightening can be effectively alleviated. After the volume - shrinking rebound, the stock index is expected to consolidate through oscillations. In the long - run, in the context of low interest rates and "asset shortage", domestic market funds are generally abundant, and as the economy is in the bottom - building process, the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rates and Bond Market - Interest rates: DR001 closed at 1.32% with a 0.32bp increase; DR007 at 1.49% with a 0.57bp decrease; GC001 at 1.48% with a 12.50bp decrease; GC007 at 1.57% with a 3.50bp decrease; SHBOR 3M at 1.58% with a 0.13bp decrease; LPR 5 - year at 3.50% unchanged [3]. - Bond yields: 1 - year treasury bond at 1.30% with a 0.01bp decrease; 5 - year at 1.51% with a 0.25bp decrease; 10 - year at 1.81% with a 0.15bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.28% with a 1.00bp decrease [3]. - Central bank operations: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 3775 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 3025 billion yuan. This week, 17615 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 7000 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - Stock index futures prices: IF当月 closed at 4699 with a 0.9% increase; IH当月 at 3072 with a 1.3% increase; IC当月 at 8321 with a 0.3% increase; IM当月 at 8230 with a 0.2% increase [3][5][10]. - Stock index prices: The CSI 300 rose 0.83% to 4698.7; the SSE 50 rose 1.14% to 3069.2; the CSI 500 rose 0.15% to 8299.1; the CSI 1000 fell 0.02% to 8207.1 [5]. - Trading volume and open interest: IF volume decreased by 21.8%, open interest by 5.6%; IH volume by 17.5%, open interest by 6.9%; IC volume by 18.1%, open interest by 2.9%; IM volume by 11.4%, open interest by 0.5% [5][10]. - Market turnover: The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 623 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - Industry performance: Most industry sectors rose. The coal, photovoltaic equipment, airport, glass fiber, mining, and real estate development sectors led the gains, while the precious metal, cultural media, gaming, internet service, and semiconductor sectors led the losses [5]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis - IF basis: - 0.06% for the current - month contract, 0.90% for the next - month contract, 1.94% for the current - quarter contract, 3.01% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IH basis: - 1.75% for the current - month contract, - 0.69% for the next - month contract, 0.30% for the current - quarter contract, 1.71% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IC basis: - 6.03% for the current - month contract, - 1.45% for the next - month contract, 2.71% for the current - quarter contract, 3.78% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IM basis: - 6.36% for the current - month contract, 0.38% for the next - month contract, 5.33% for the current - quarter contract, 6.27% for the next - quarter contract [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index rebounded strongly yesterday, but the market trading volume shrank. The market sentiment gradually recovered with the rebound of overseas precious metal prices, and the stock index oscillated upward in the afternoon and closed at the intraday high. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the panic caused by the tightening of overseas liquidity is effectively alleviated. It is expected that the stock index will mainly consolidate after the shrinking - volume rebound. In the long run, in the context of low - interest rates and "asset shortage", the domestic market funds are still relatively abundant, and the stock index's medium - and long - term upward trend is not expected to end as the economy is in the process of bottom - building [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32 with a - 4.73bp change, DR007 at 1.50 with a 0.69bp change, GC001 at 1.60 with a - 18.00bp change, GC007 at 1.61 with a - 3.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a - 0.30bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.30 with a - 0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57 with a - 0.75bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.81 with a - 0.40bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.29 with a 3.00bp change [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The CSI 300 rose 1.18% to 4660.1, the SSE 50 rose 1.05% to 3034.6, the CSI 500 rose 3.11% to 8286.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.93% to 8209.1. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2565.8 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 4.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally rose, with shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, small metals, glass fiber, engineering machinery, communication equipment, and aerospace sectors surging, while only the banking, insurance, and brewing industries declined [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 rose 1.6% to 4658, IH当月 rose 1.0% to 3033, IC当月 rose 4.3% to 8296, IM当月 rose 3.8% to 8213. IF trading volume was 141,785 with a - 25.9% change, IF open interest was 311,044 with a - 0.9% change, IH trading volume was 63,934 with a - 28.4% change, IH open interest was 114,505 with a - 4.0% change, IC trading volume was 221,446 with a - 23.4% change, IC open interest was 327,164 with a - 0.5% change, IM trading volume was 257,636 with a - 16.1% change, and IM open interest was 405,518 with a - 2.1% change [5]. - **Futures Basis**: IF basis was 1.16% (current - month contract), 1.24% (next - month contract), 2.02% (current - quarter contract), 2.90% (next - quarter contract); IH basis was 1.26% (current - month contract), 0.42% (next - month contract), 0.83% (current - quarter contract), 1.84% (next - quarter contract); IC basis was - 2.36% (current - month contract), 0.46% (next - month contract), 3.14% (current - quarter contract), 3.72% (next - quarter contract); IM basis was - 1.02% (current - month contract), 2.58% (next - month contract), 5.82% (current - quarter contract), 6.33% (next - quarter contract) [7]. Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a bid volume, winning bid volume of 105.5 billion yuan. 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan for the day [3]. - This week, 1761.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. From Monday to Friday, 150.5 billion yuan, 402 billion yuan, 377.5 billion yuan, 354 billion yuan, and 477.5 billion yuan will mature respectively. In addition, 700 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1] 2. Data Source and Selection - The closing price data are from the previous Friday, and the weekly changes are the changes in the closing prices of the previous Friday compared with those of the Friday before last. Data sources include wind and Guotou Futures [1][2] 3. Market Data 3.1 Commodities - **Positive Growth**: Silver closed at 27941.00 with a weekly increase of 11.92%; crude oil at 470.80 with a 6.54% increase; gold at 1161.42 with a 4.10% increase; palm oil at 9240.00 with a 3.70% increase; PVC at 5063.00 with a 2.89% increase; copper at 103680.00 with a 2.31% increase; aluminum at 24560.00 with a 1.11% increase; methanol at 2320.00 with a 0.96% increase; and soybean meal at 2767.00 with a 0.58% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: Coking coal at 1155.50 with a - 0.13% change; iron ore at 791.50 with a - 0.44% change; rebar at 3128.00 with a - 0.45% change; glass at 1056.00 with a - 0.75% change; corn at 2271.00 with a - 1.26% change; ethylene glycol at 3913.00 with a - 2.10% change; live pigs at 11220.00 with a - 2.98% change; PTA at 5270.00 with a - 3.27% change; and polysilicon at 47140.00 with a - 7.06% change [2] 3.2 A - shares - **Positive Growth**: The SSE 50 closed at 3066.50 with a 1.13% increase; the CSI 300 at 4706.34 with a 0.08% increase; and the Hang Seng Index at 27387.11 with a 2.38% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The CSI 500 closed at 8370.52 with a - 2.56% change [2] 3.3 Overseas Stocks - **Positive Growth**: The FTSE 100 closed at 10223.54 with a 0.79% increase; the S&P 500 at 6939.03 with a 0.34% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23461.82 with a - 0.17% change; the French CAC40 at 8126.53 with a - 0.20% change; and the Nikkei 225 at 53322.85 with a - 0.97% change [2] 3.4 Bonds - Chinese 2 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.39 with a - 0.86bp change; 10 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.82 with a - 1.81bp change; and 5 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.58 with a - 2.7bp change [2] 3.5 Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate closed at 1.19 with a 0.19% increase; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.97 with a - 0.36% change; and the US dollar index was 97.12 with a - 0.40% change [2] 4. Commodity Views 4.1 Macro - financial Sector 4.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Abundant liquidity in Q1, central bank's structural interest - rate cuts, upward - revised corporate profit expectations, improving fundamentals, ongoing core drivers of the spring market, and capital flowing into low - valuation sectors [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Sharp decline in precious metals, nomination of Waller for Fed Chair increasing hawkish expectations, decline in January's manufacturing PMI, insufficient economic demand, and profit - taking in the capital market [3] 4.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations, increased capital flowing back to the bond market due to stock market uncertainties, good primary - market demand for bonds, and geopolitical risks increasing risk - aversion sentiment [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Uncertainties around the Spring Festival, supply pressure of government bonds in 2026, and the need to observe the impact of allocation forces on market demand and pricing [3] 4.2 Energy Sector 4.2.1 Crude Oil - **Strategy Views**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impact of the US cold wave on production, OPEC+ suspending production increases until the end of Q1, and a weak US dollar trend [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Forecast of oversupply in 2026 by IEA and EIA, non - OPEC countries' continuous production expansion, potential over - production in Venezuela, high geopolitical premium in current prices, and weak terminal demand [4] 4.3 Agricultural Products Sector 4.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Concerns about drought in Argentina, strong short - term Brazilian basis, inventory reduction before the festival, and relatively strong spot prices [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Expected high soybean production in Brazil, high future arrivals, decline in US soybean prices, weak demand from the breeding industry, and a 70% year - on - year increase in domestic commercial inventory [4] 4.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector 4.4.1 Copper - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Potential US interest - rate cuts, supply disruptions in global copper mines, weakening copper concentrate processing fees, and long - term growth in copper consumption [5] - **Bearish Logics**: Concerns about Fed's tightening policies after Waller's nomination, weakening sentiment due to precious - metal decline, increasing global visible inventory, and profit - taking before the Spring Festival [5] 4.5 Chemical Sector 4.5.1 Soda Ash - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Macro - policies to counter deflation and involution, industry's willingness to stabilize prices, and pre - festival downstream procurement before the cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaic glass [5] - **Bearish Logics**: New production capacity increasing supply pressure, low - price and rigid - demand procurement by downstream, high enterprise inventory, and oversupply in the photovoltaic glass industry [5] 4.6 Precious Metals Sector 4.6.1 Gold - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Long - term trend of de - dollarization, repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and central banks' long - term gold - buying behavior [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Nomination of hawkish Waller for Fed Chair, increased margin requirements by exchanges, and profit - taking from previous speculative trading [6] 4.7 Black Sector 4.7.1 Coking Coal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical tensions increasing energy commodity premiums, downstream winter - storage replenishment, and expected supply contraction due to pre - festival mine closures [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Lack of fundamental support for price increases, low auction transaction rates, high Mongolian coal imports, and low steel - mill iron - water production [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of expected tightening of overseas liquidity, the US dollar index rebounded significantly. Yesterday, all non - ferrous varieties in the domestic commodity market hit the daily limit down, triggering an overall adjustment of risk assets. The stock index dropped significantly due to the linkage between commodities and the stock market and concerns about overseas liquidity tightening [6]. - The current A - share market is dominated by capital and policy. About 70 billion yuan flowed out of broad - based ETFs from January 15th to 27th, presumably due to Central Huijin's reduction to cool the market. The redemption of broad - based ETFs weakened last Thursday and Friday. In the short term, the policy is expected to take flexible measures to support the market. In the long run, the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.36 with a 3.65bp increase; DR007 at 1.49 with a - 10.20bp change; GC001 at 1.78 with a 17.50bp increase; GC007 at 1.64 with a 3.00bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a - 0.01bp change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury at 1.30 with a 0.50bp increase; 5 - year treasury at 1.57 with a - 0.10bp change; 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a 0.10bp increase; 10 - year US treasury at 4.26 with a 2.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 75 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 75.5 billion yuan. This week, 1.7615 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases are due to mature, and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 4016, the CSI 300 dropped 2.13% to 4606, the SSE 50 declined 2.07% to 3003, the CSI 500 decreased 3.98% to 8037, and the CSI 1000 fell 3.39% to 7975. The decline of stock index futures was greater than that of the underlying indexes, and the discount widened, indicating a rapid cooling of market sentiment. The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 2.6069 trillion yuan, a decrease of 255.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors fell, with only power grid equipment and the brewing industry rising [5]. - **Futures Performance**: The trading volume of IF increased by 6.8% to 191,408, and the open interest decreased by 5.6% to 313,881; IH trading volume rose 15.9% to 89,283, and open interest decreased by 2.5% to 119,304; IC trading volume increased 16.4% to 289,004, and open interest decreased by 5.9% to 328,769; IM trading volume rose 11.3% to 307,100, and open interest increased by 1.3% to 414,250 [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: The report provides the premium and discount rates for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [7].