投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 美联储按兵不动，铜铝震荡整理 ——铜铝周报2025.06.23 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：国内5月经济数据仍有韧性，美联储6月会议继续暂停降 | 沪铜2508合约 | | | | 息，关注中东局势和美国关税政策变化。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：从供应端来看，交易所仓单大量流出，俄罗斯低价货源 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 在市场大量销售，但市场承接能力有限。库存方面，截至6月5日周 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 四，全国主流地区铜库存为14.6万吨，环比上升0.11万吨。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：铜矿紧张预期和美国对铜征收关税预期继续支持铜价， | | | | | 但关税对经济冲击 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices declined slightly due to the low - level rebound of the US dollar, rising risks of economic stagflation in the US, intensified geopolitical conflicts leading overseas capital to flee risk assets, and the Fed's hawkish remarks delaying the interest - rate cut, lacking upward macro - drivers. Fundamentally, major global mines' disruptions continued, non - US visible inventories dropped rapidly, the LME 0 - 3 spread hit a new high this year, and domestic social inventories were low, indicating a shortage of concentrate supply gradually spreading to refined copper supply [2]. - Overall, the low - level rebound of the US dollar pressured risk asset prices, the decline in US retail sales data and the sharp rise in crude oil prices increased the risk of US economic stagflation, and the Fed's hawkish stance dampened market risk appetite. Copper prices are hard to find upward momentum in the short term. Fundamentally, the shortage of global concentrates in the second half of the year may far exceed market expectations, with a significant drop in global visible inventories and continuous depletion of LME inventories. Although the supply side provides strong support, short - term macro factors suppress copper price increases. It is expected that LME copper will show a high - level decline, but the adjustment range may be relatively limited [3][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From June 13th to June 20th, LME copper rose by $13.00 to $9660.50 per ton, a 0.13% increase; COMEX copper rose by 8.25 cents to 483.4 cents per pound, a 1.74% increase; SHFE copper fell by 20 yuan to 77990 yuan per ton, a 0.03% decrease; international copper fell by 30 yuan to 69170 yuan per ton, a 0.04% decrease; the Shanghai - LME ratio dropped to 8.07; the LME spot premium rose by $201.58 to $274.99 per ton, a 274.59% increase; the Shanghai spot premium rose by 85 yuan to 120 yuan per ton [4]. - In terms of inventory, as of June 20th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 461,393 tons. LME inventory decreased by 15,275 tons to 99,200 tons, a 13.34% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 5,151 short tons to 201,197 short tons, a 2.63% increase; SHFE inventory decreased by 1,129 tons to 100,796 tons, a 1.11% decrease; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,700 tons to 60,200 tons, an 8.47% increase [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices declined slightly last week. Overseas macro factors lacked upward drivers for copper prices, while the shortage of concentrate supply gradually spread to refined copper supply. Global visible inventories were low, supporting copper prices. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio was mainly due to the weak US dollar last week [8]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, lowered the expected US economic growth rate from 1.7% to 1.4%. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. Three European central banks cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The People's Bank of China maintained the one - year and five - year LPR rates [9]. - This week, the spot TC remained at - 45 dollars per ton. Kamo'a significantly reduced its production guidance by 150,000 tons this year. In China, the electrolytic copper output in May was 1.139 million tons, a 12.9% year - on - year increase. However, domestic smelting capacity faced a bottleneck, and some small and medium - sized smelters might cut production. Overseas deliverable supplies flowed to North America, and the domestic tight - balance pattern was hard to break. In terms of demand, power grid investment project tenders were launched, the weekly operating rate of copper cable enterprises remained above 80%, and orders of refined copper rod enterprises were abundant. The drag on demand came from the expected sharp decline in photovoltaic installation in May, while emerging markets such as data centers, artificial intelligence, and new - energy vehicles brought strong growth expectations [10]. Industry News - In May 2025, China exported 114,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 23.6% year - on - year decrease; from January to May, the cumulative export was 595,000 tons, a 25.2% year - on - year increase. In May, China imported 430,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 16.6% year - on - year decrease; from January to May, the cumulative import was 2.17 million tons, a 6.7% year - on - year decrease. In May, China imported 2.4 million tons of copper ore concentrates, a 6.6% year - on - year increase; from January to May, the cumulative import was 12.41 million tons, a 7.4% year - on - year increase. From January to May, China's cumulative copper product output was 9.537 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase [12]. - India's Adani copper smelter started processing ore last week. Its initial annual capacity is 500,000 tons, expected to expand to 1 million tons by 2028. It may take 18 months to reach full production, and it needs about 1.6 million tons of copper concentrates per year to operate at full capacity. This year, the gap between the smelter's required concentrates and actual supply may reach 1.2 million tons, the largest in at least a decade [13]. - Vale's Bacaba copper project in Brazil obtained a preliminary environmental permit. It is expected to produce about 50,000 tons of copper per year on average during an eight - year operation period, starting production in the first half of 2028. Vale plans to invest about $290 million in the project. After the news, Vale's New York - listed stock rose 3.4% to $9.77, with a market value of about $42 billion [14]. - Last week, the processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 400 - 650 yuan per ton, a 50 - 80 yuan per ton increase. The increase was due to the upward shift of the domestic copper premium center after the contract change and the recovery of terminal demand after the copper price decline. In the East China market, the transaction improved, but the overall delivery progress was not ideal due to poor downstream operation. In the South China market, the transaction changed little, and downstream cable enterprises mostly purchased recycled copper rods [15].

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd. is progressing with a plan to issue shares to acquire a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining Co., Ltd. and raise supporting funds through share issuance to China Aluminum Corporation and China Copper Corporation [1][2] - The transaction is structured as a share issuance for asset acquisition and fundraising, and upon completion, Liangshan Mining will become a subsidiary of Yunnan Copper [1][2] - The transaction is not expected to constitute a major asset restructuring or lead to a change in the actual controller of the company [2] Group 2 - The company’s stock was suspended from trading on May 13, 2025, due to the planning of this transaction, and resumed trading on May 26, 2025, after the relevant announcements were made [2] - As of the date of the announcement, the auditing and evaluation of the target assets involved in the transaction have not been completed, and further board and shareholder meetings will be held to review related matters [3][4] - The company will adhere to relevant regulations and timely fulfill information disclosure obligations as the transaction progresses [3][4]

Group 1 - The event titled "Capital Market Serves High-Quality Development of Ningbo's Private Economy" was held to implement the new "National Nine Articles" and enhance the capital market's role in supporting private economic development [1] - 11 industry institutions and 8 representatives from private enterprises participated, discussing risk management and the use of futures and derivatives to mitigate risks [1] - Challenges faced by private enterprises, especially small and medium-sized ones, in utilizing futures tools include lack of expertise, weak risk management awareness, and internal system deficiencies [1] Group 2 - Representatives from futures institutions suggested enhancing investor education and training, and improving risk management systems for enterprises [2] - Local representatives expressed the need for collaboration among financial associations, industry associations, and research institutes to address challenges and promote high-quality development of key industrial clusters in Ningbo [2] - Commodity service providers shared insights on integrating finance and industry, managing market risks, and ensuring stable business operations [2] Group 3 - Ningbo Jintian Copper Industry Group has relied on long-termism and steady operations, with profit growth driven by continuous investment in technology and product value enhancement [3] - The company has utilized futures as a risk management tool since the 1990s, implementing hedging principles to lock in processing profits and control risks [3] - The event facilitated communication and consensus on empowering the private economy through the capital market, aiming for deeper collaboration and innovative tools to support private enterprises in a volatile market [3]

【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,690 | 0.40% | 78610 | -0.10% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,651 | -0.20% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 34,479 | 3,870 | 137,220 | 1,023 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,333 | 598 | 291,000 | -1,972 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 47,014 | -7,527 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 107,350 | -200 | 49.53% | -1.23% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 | | 105.96 | 122.77 | -16.81 | | | 保税区仓单 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 俄罗斯货源并不被普遍认可 流动货源仍相对偏紧 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-06-17，沪铜主力合约开于 78640元/吨，收于 78570元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.03%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 78,600元/吨，收于 78,560 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.04%。 现货情况： 铜：谨慎偏多 总体而言，本周国内长单价格仍在谈判之中，现货TC价格仍处于低位，不过下游精铜杆企业反馈订单持续走低。 未来需求展望仍存较大不确定性。但在地缘因素复杂，美联储持续存在降息压力的情况下，铜品种的类贵金属属 性或许也会从中受益。故操作上目前仍然建议以逢低买入套保为主，买入区间在77,000元/吨至77,500元/吨。 套利：暂缓 期权：short put @ 77,000元/吨 据 SMM 讯， 昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对当月2507合约报升水180-升水300元/吨，均价报价升水240 元/吨，较上 一交易日涨210元/吨；SMM1#电解铜价格为78620~78810 元/吨。早盘，沪期铜2507合约窄幅波动，于78420-78560 元/吨波动； ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The strong spot price of LME copper supports the copper price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 78,380 with a daily decline of 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 78,560 with a night - session increase of 0.23%. The closing price of LME copper 3M electronic trading was 9,670 with a daily decline of 0.26%. The trading volume and open interest of both SHFE and LME copper decreased compared with the previous day [1] - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE copper inventory was 54,541, an increase of 7,490 from the previous day, and the LME copper inventory was 107,550, an increase of 225. The LME copper注销仓单比 was 50.77%, a decrease of 1.71% [1] - **Spread Data**: The LME copper premium, spot - to - near - month futures spread, and near - month to continuous - first contract spread all increased compared with the previous day. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash, and the spread between SHFE copper continuous - third contract and LME 3M decreased [1] b. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Trump claimed to have full control of Iran's airspace, warned of exhausting patience, and called on Iran to "unconditionally surrender", and was reported to have met with the national security team in the White House situation room and considered possible strikes against Iran [1] - **Industry News**: In April, the copper production of Codelco in Chile increased by 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons. The western area of Kakula Mine restarted mining operations on June 7, 2025. The Condor - Teck copper project in Peru obtained environmental approval. Ivanhoe Mines revised the 2025 production target of Kamoa - Kakula Joint Mine to 370,000 - 420,000 tons of concentrate copper, a 28% reduction from the target set in January [1][3] c. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Group 1: Company Overview - North Copper Industry Co., Ltd. specializes in the mining, beneficiation, smelting, and processing of copper metals, covering the entire copper industry chain [2] - Main products include cathode copper, gold ingots, silver ingots, copper alloy strips, and rolled copper foil, with by-products such as sulfuric acid, sponge gold, and sponge palladium [2] - Cathode copper production capacity is 320,000 tons/year, sulfuric acid capacity is 1.22 million tons/year, copper alloy strip capacity is 25,000 tons/year, and rolled copper foil capacity is 5,000 tons/year [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue was 24.107 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 613 million yuan [3] - In Q1 2025, the operating revenue reached 6.838 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 371 million yuan [3] - The increase in Q1 2025 performance was driven by market price influences and improved gross margins for main products, including cathode copper and precious metals [3] Group 3: Production and Supply Chain - The company produces approximately 44,000 tons of copper concentrate from its own mines and sources an additional 7,000-8,000 tons from its controlling shareholder, Zhongtiaoshan Group [3] - Remaining copper concentrate is sourced from imports and domestic purchases [3] - There are currently no plans for expanding smelting capacity [3] Group 4: Project Development - The copper strip and foil project has completed its first phase and is in trial production, with a customer certification cycle ranging from 2 months to over 1 year depending on application and product requirements [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [6] - Option investment rating: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic long - term contract prices are still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. Downstream refined copper rod enterprises report a continuous decline in orders, and future demand outlook is highly uncertain. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data 1.1 Futures Quotes - On June 16, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 77,910 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 78,550 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the night - session was 78,640 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 78,650 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] 1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, in the morning, the offer of iron peak copper with a premium of about 200 yuan/ton was quickly snapped up. Subsequently, the premium of market supplies was 230 - 280 yuan/ton. The supply of high - quality copper remained tight with a premium of 330 - 350 yuan/ton. The premium of BMK, BOR, etc. was 160 - 180 yuan/ton. Due to the contract change, most holders were reluctant to sell at low prices. Thousands of tons of Russian copper arrived over the weekend, with a premium of 100 - 120 yuan/ton for transactions. It is expected that today's spot premium will start above 200 yuan/ton [2] 1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian officials signaled their intention to end hostilities and resume nuclear - project negotiations. They are willing to return to the negotiation table as long as the US does not join the air strikes. The weekend's geopolitical conflicts did not affect the transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil price did not rise further, and the Fed's attitude towards interest - rate cuts remained cautious, with the US dollar gradually stabilizing [3] - **Domestic Aspects**: In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [3] 1.4 Mining End - The open - pit mining project of the Canon Copper Mine of Vientiane Mining, a subsidiary of Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., officially started. It is the first large - scale copper project restarted since 2021, marking Vientiane Mining's return to the "gold - copper parallel" era. After the project is put into production, it will become another important profit point [4] 1.5 Smelting and Import - According to Mysteel, the spot trading volume of electrolytic copper of 53 domestic trading enterprises was 2.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.30 million tons or 12% from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased, the market quotes varied on the delivery day, and the downstream's purchasing sentiment was low, and the trading activities of trading enterprises also declined [4] 1.6 Consumption - According to Mysteel, the order volume of 31 domestic copper rod production enterprises was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.36 million tons or 55.77% from the previous trading day. Among them, the order volume of refined copper rods was 0.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.39 million tons or 63.29%, and the order volume of recycled copper rods was 0.27 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons or 14.24% [5] 1.7 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 7,150 tons to 107,325 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,782 tons to 47,051 tons. On June 16, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 14.77 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons from the previous week [5] 2. Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [6] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [6] - **Option**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper is rated as "High-level consolidation, bearish in the future" [1] - The recommended strategy is to "Wait and see for now, and short later" [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market is trading the weakening of the US economy, with signs of economic decline emerging. Although the copper fundamentals currently have some support, they are showing signs of weakening. The market's trading logic has changed again, and concerns about overseas miners suppressing long-term processing fees are relatively strong, reinforcing the long position's bet on copper shortage. In the short term, the downside space for copper prices may be limited, and they are expected to remain at a high level. However, due to weakening demand and lack of macro confidence, it is difficult for copper prices to continue rising [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The open-pit mining project of the Canon Copper Mine of WANXIANG MINING CO., LTD., a subsidiary of Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., has officially started. This is the first large-scale copper mine project restarted since the suspension of copper mining in 2021, marking that WANXIANG MINING has entered the era of "simultaneous development of gold and copper" again. After the project is put into production, it will become another important profit growth point for WANXIANG MINING [2] Variety Logic Macro Perspective - The US CPI data is lower than market expectations, and the market starts to trade the weakening of the US economy. In terms of non-farm employment, although it is higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast, the short-term employment diffusion index has declined, indicating that although the employment market is still strong at present, there is a high risk of decline in the future. At the same time, the revised US GDP still shows negative growth, and overall, the economic weakening has begun to emerge [2] Fundamentals - **Supply Side**: The import copper concentrate processing fee of smelters is -$43.91 per dry ton, and the spot processing fee has stabilized but is still in a deep inversion state. Overseas miners are seeking to negotiate with Chinese smelters to lower the long-term processing fee, and smelters are under great pressure. Attention should be paid to whether there will be production cut actions in the future [2] - **Demand Side**: The production of copper rods, copper tubes, etc. has reached the high level of the same period in previous years, but the downstream is gradually entering the off-season [2] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see, and short copper later [2][3]