Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottoming process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The main contract remains weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not recommended to hold positions against the market. Set stop - losses well [4]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Summary by Related Content Spot Freight Rates and Indexes - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Tariff and Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates [3]. - On September 19, the main contract 2510 closed at 1050.5, with a decline of 6.00%, a trading volume of 32,100 lots, and an open interest of 47,700 lots, an increase of 542 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. - Qatar and Egypt will continue to mediate the Gaza conflict. Hamas disagrees to negotiate under the current situation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping stocks have experienced significant declines due to weak demand for container shipping exports from China, leading to a continued adjustment in freight rates across various routes [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026) saw a drop of 7.07%, trading at HKD 9.07 [1] - Seaspan Corporation (01308) declined by 5.61%, with shares at HKD 28.92 [1] - Orient Overseas International (00316) fell by 4.12%, priced at HKD 128.1 [1] - China COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) decreased by 3.98%, trading at HKD 13.27 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported a 14.3% decrease in the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, which is now at 1198.21 points [1] - European routes are facing weak demand growth, resulting in declining spot market booking prices [1] - North American routes have seen a decrease in demand since early September, leading to a significant drop in spot market booking prices [1] - The Persian Gulf route is also experiencing weak demand, with freight rates continuing to adjust downward [1] - The Australia-New Zealand route shows stable demand, but market rates are still on a downward trend [1] - South American routes are under pressure due to weak demand growth, causing a continued decline in spot market booking prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shipping stocks have experienced significant declines due to weak demand for container shipping in China, leading to a continued adjustment in market freight rates [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (01138) fell by 7.07%, trading at HKD 9.07 [1] - Seaspan Corporation (01308) decreased by 5.61%, trading at HKD 28.92 [1] - Orient Overseas International (00316) dropped by 4.12%, trading at HKD 128.1 [1] - China COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) declined by 3.98%, trading at HKD 13.27 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported a 14.3% decrease in the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, which is now at 1198.21 points [1] - European routes are facing weak demand growth, resulting in declining spot market booking prices [1] - North American routes have seen a decrease in demand since early September, with significant drops in spot market booking prices [1] - The Persian Gulf route is experiencing weak demand, leading to substantial adjustments in spot market freight rates [1] - The Australia-New Zealand route shows stable demand, but market freight rates continue to decline [1] - South American routes are under pressure due to weak demand growth, with spot market booking prices continuing to fall [1]

Industry Overview - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) is at 3981 points, down 8.5% year-on-year and up 0.30% month-on-month [1] - Liquid chemical domestic shipping prices are at 159 RMB/ton, down 6.31% year-on-year and stable month-on-month [1][3] - The operating rates for paraxylene (PX), methanol, and ethylene glycol are 85.3%, 79.4%, and 70.9% respectively, with PX down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, methanol down 1.8 percentage points month-on-month and 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, and ethylene glycol down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month but up 15.3% year-on-year [1][3] Express Delivery - In August, express delivery volume grew approximately 12% year-on-year, with SF Holding leading the growth [2] - The total express delivery volume for the week of September 8-14 was about 3.83 billion pieces, down 0.67% month-on-month and up 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased by 7.2% year-on-year to 7.37 RMB [2] Logistics - The chemical shipping prices remained stable, and there is a recommendation for Haichen Co. due to improved demand [3] - The CCPI and liquid chemical shipping prices indicate a challenging environment for chemical logistics [3] Aviation - In August, civil aviation passenger volume increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with Spring Airlines leading in RPK growth [4] - The average daily flight operations increased by 6.05% year-on-year, with domestic flights up 5.39% and international flights up 10.03% [4] - The Brent crude oil futures price is at $66.68/barrel, down 0.46% month-on-month and down 9.5% year-on-year [4] Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1120.23 points, down 0.5% month-on-month and down 31.6% year-on-year [5] - The BDTI index for crude oil transportation increased by 5.1% month-on-month and 28.1% year-on-year [5] - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping is at 2179 points, up 4.3% month-on-month and up 13.0% year-on-year [5] Road and Rail Ports - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.8% month-on-month and 9.2% year-on-year, with container throughput up 0.1% month-on-month and 13.5% year-on-year [6] - The total number of trucks passing through highways was 57.71 million, up 6.17% month-on-month but down 0.58% year-on-year [6] - The dividend yield of major road operators is higher than the current yield of China's ten-year government bonds [6]

他半开玩笑的说，"有一种说法是，没有航运，这个世界的一半会饿死，另一半会冻死"，以形象解 释国际航运的重要性。 9月18日，在2025世贸组织公共论坛中，国际航运领域的专家探讨了目前行业最关心的诸多话题， 从国际贸易规则，到碳减排，以及数字科技给航运领域所带来的新发展机遇。 国际航运公会（ICS）副秘书长Simon Bennett呼吁公众多一些对航运行业的关注。他解释说，2024 年，目前126亿吨重的全球货品都是通过海运集装箱运输，占全球货物贸易总量的九成，全球货品贸易 总价值的六成，约合40万亿美元。 在此之外，碳稅和监管框架的统一也是海运产业很关心的话题。 Tan Hung Seng大使认为，当下贸易和可持续已经是两个内在高度互联的话题。 "目前欧洲所采取的CBAM，即计划与明年开始实施的'欧盟碳边境调整机制'，就是在这种趋势下 应运而生。"Tan Hung Seng大使说，"减碳话题已经是公共板块和私人板块共同认可的趋势，新加坡也 是坚定的支持碳减排和可持续发展。然而，减碳需要一个国际性的统一框架，也要考虑到对企业运营成 本的影响。在CBAM实施的过程中，就要考虑到这机制是否和每个欧盟国家国内的政策相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR) has proposed comprehensive sanctions against the Chinese shipping industry, which may lead to significant disruptions in the global shipping market [3]. Group 1: USTR Sanctions Proposal - The USTR plans to impose high port fees on Chinese shipping companies, shipbuilders, and any shipowners with Chinese shipbuilding orders starting from October 14, 2025 [3][4]. - This action is perceived as an escalation of the U.S. systematic suppression of the Chinese shipping industry [3]. Group 2: COSCO's Response - COSCO Shipping Container Lines has communicated to its customers that while the new fees may pose challenges, the company remains confident in its U.S. route network and will continue to provide reliable and high-quality logistics solutions [4]. - The company emphasizes its commitment to adapting its product structure to meet the evolving demands of the U.S. market while maintaining competitive freight rates and surcharges [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the decline in the stock price of China Merchants Energy Shipping Company, which fell by 5.01% to 12.13 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 282 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.66%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 57.87 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on July 26, 1996, and listed on May 23, 2002, is primarily engaged in the transportation of crude oil and refined oil, as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes: foreign trade crude oil 44.88%, domestic crude oil 13.64%, LNG transportation 10.69%, foreign trade refined oil 9.88%, domestic refined oil 9.49%, foreign trade ship leasing 8.06%, chemical transportation 1.37%, LPG transportation 1.21%, domestic ship leasing 0.54%, and others 0.24% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund has a significant position in China Merchants Energy, with the Qianhai Kaiyuan Value Strategy Stock Fund (005328) holding 371,700 shares, accounting for 7.71% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The Qianhai Kaiyuan Value Strategy Stock Fund was established on December 22, 2017, with a latest scale of 49.78 million CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 21.62%, ranking 2336 out of 4222 in its category, and a one-year return of 47.44%, ranking 2079 out of 3813 [2] - The fund manager, Qin Xuan, has been in position for 5 years and 140 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 49.78 million CNY, achieving a best return of 16.84% and a worst return of -18.76% during the tenure [3]

降息周期开启，周期有何投资机会？20250921 摘要 BDI 指数在历史降息周期中显著上涨，当前干散货运价仍处底部。关注 招商轮船、海通发展等标的，以及在新兴市场具有成长性的嘉友国际。 降息利好新兴市场基建和消费，推动资金流入。看好极兔速递在新兴市 场电商爆发期的发展潜力，尤其是在东南亚和拉美地区。 美元贬值及人民币升值利好航空板块，带来汇兑收益。推荐华夏航空、 港股中的国航、东航、南航，以及 A 股中的吉祥航空和春秋航空。 游轮运价近期大幅上涨，供需关系反转是主因。OPEC 恢复产量， VLOC 游轮交付量减少，美国制裁影响供给。推荐具备游轮和干散货双 重优势的招商轮船。 8 月通达系快递单票价格上涨，9 月涨价区域扩大至全国 90%件量份额 区域，快递行业反内卷成功，业绩有望改善。推荐圆通、申通及极兔速 递。 美联储降息打开国内降息空间，中美关系缓和利好风险偏好。化工行业 PPI 降幅收窄，景气度见底。关注烯烃（宝丰能源、卫星化学）、涤纶、 有机硅（新安股份、三友化工、东岳硅材）和农化（亚钾国际、东方铁 塔）子板块。 市场对有色金属板块看多，预计下周将交易降息预期。铜和黄金预计领 涨，关注紫金矿业、中国 ...

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (71.62%), Gree Power (69.26%), and COSCO Shipping Energy (69.07%) [1] - Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (68.69%) saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +135.49 billion, +36.19 billion, and +12.40 billion respectively [1] - Xiaomi Group-W, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong, and Tencent Holdings experienced the largest decreases in holding amounts, with reductions of -19.37 billion, -18.72 billion, and -10.39 billion respectively [2] Group 1: Top Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding of 99.41 billion shares, representing 71.62% [1] - Gree Power (01330) has a holding of 2.80 billion shares, representing 69.26% [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has a holding of 8.95 billion shares, representing 69.07% [1] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Alibaba-W (09988) saw an increase of +135.49 billion in holding amount, with an increase of +85.16 million shares [1] - Meituan-W (03690) experienced an increase of +36.19 billion, with an increase of +34.04 million shares [1] - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) had an increase of +12.40 billion, with an increase of +20.13 million shares [1] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a decrease of -19.37 billion in holding amount, with a decrease of -34.16 million shares [2] - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) saw a decrease of -18.72 billion, with a decrease of -68.81 million shares [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) experienced a decrease of -10.39 billion, with a decrease of -1.62 million shares [2]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Istanbul Bridge" container ship by Hai Jie Shipping marks the establishment of a new Arctic fast shipping route from China to Europe, significantly reducing shipping time and enhancing logistics efficiency for exports from Fujian Province [1] Group 1: Shipping Route Details - The new Arctic fast shipping route is the first direct shipping line from Fujian Province to Europe, completing the journey in just 19 days, which is 7 days faster than the China-Europe Railway Express and over 20 days faster than the traditional Suez Canal route [1] - The route connects major Chinese ports including Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Fuzhou, and Ningbo directly to key European hubs such as Felixstowe in the UK, Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Hamburg in Germany, and Gdansk in Poland [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - This shipping line provides customized fast shipping services for enterprises in the Fuzhou port hinterland, facilitating exports to Europe and supporting the upcoming Christmas trade season as well as the supply of raw materials for European chemical and construction industries [1] - Hai Jie Shipping has designated the Jiangyin Port area of Fuzhou Port as the sole port of call for this route in Fujian Province, creating a "polar shortcut" for inland manufacturing enterprises to benefit from the time efficiency of the Arctic shipping line [1]