Group 1 - The liquor industry is experiencing a strong rebound, with the major consumption index rising by 1.21% as of 11:24 AM on January 29, 2026, driven by stocks like Hainan Rubber hitting the daily limit and notable increases in Luzhou Laojiao (5.06%) and Gujing Gongjiu (4.06%) [1] - The State Council has initiated measures to boost consumption, emphasizing the implementation of special actions to stimulate consumption and cultivate new growth points in service consumption [1] - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the food and beverage sector is currently at a low point in both fundamentals and valuations, presenting significant investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a mild recovery trend [1] - The current valuation of the liquor sector is at a low point historically, with market expectations being pessimistic and a favorable chip structure, suggesting a good entry point for investments [1] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with particular focus on investment opportunities in the dairy, snacks, and catering supply chain segments [1] Group 3 - The CSI Major Consumption Index includes leading consumer stocks across various sectors, with the top ten stocks accounting for 68.63% of the index, including Yili, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye [1] - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the CSI Major Consumption Index, which encompasses essential consumer leaders from various sectors, with liquor being the largest segment at nearly 38% weight [2] - Investors can also access the consumption recovery trend through the consumption ETF linked fund (009180) [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.02% to 55.17 CNY per share, while the company faces a decline in revenue and profit year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 29, Shede Liquor's stock price increased by 2.02%, reaching 55.17 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.77 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.08%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 18.358 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Shede Liquor's stock has decreased by 1.62%, with a 1.34% increase over the last five trading days, a 3.21% decrease over the last 20 days, and a 10.13% decline over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shede Liquor reported a revenue of 3.702 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 17.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 472 million CNY, down 29.43% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Shede Liquor has distributed a total of 2.29 billion CNY in dividends, with 1.353 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shede Liquor was 114,400, a decrease of 11.81% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 13.39% to 2,908 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the second-largest is the China Securities White Wine Index A, holding 16.4538 million shares, unchanged from the previous period, while the fourth-largest, the Wine ETF, increased its holdings by 2.8963 million shares to 7.2649 million shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale prices of various Moutai products, including Feitian Moutai and Zodiac Horse Moutai, have increased across the board as of January 28, 2026, indicating a rising trend in the premium liquor market [1][2]. Price Changes - The price of 26-year Feitian Moutai (original box, 53 degrees/500ml) is reported at 1590 RMB per bottle, up 35 RMB from the previous day [1][2]. - The price of 26-year Feitian Moutai (loose bottle) is now 1570 RMB, an increase of 20 RMB [1][2]. - The 25-year Feitian Moutai (original box) is priced at 1600 RMB, also up by 35 RMB [1][2]. - The 25-year Feitian Moutai (loose bottle) is now 1580 RMB, increasing by 20 RMB [1][2]. - Prices for 23-year and 24-year Feitian Moutai (both original and loose bottles) have also seen varying degrees of increase [1]. Non-Standard Products - The Zodiac Horse classic version (loose bottle) is priced at 2650 RMB, reflecting a 120 RMB increase [2]. - The premium Moutai is reported at 2320 RMB, while "Moutai 15 years" remains stable at 4100 RMB [2]. Market Trends - The Zodiac Horse classic version has experienced a continuous price increase over three days, accumulating a total rise of 400 RMB per bottle [3]. - A previous packaging error in the Zodiac Horse classic version led to significant attention and subsequent speculation in the secondary market, driving up prices [3]. - The packaging issue has been resolved, and production has resumed as of January 23, 2026 [3].

【导读】飞天茅台、马茅价格全线上涨 本周以来，多款飞天茅台价格涨幅明显，与1月26日相比，26年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，26年飞天茅台散瓶上涨了20 元；25年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，25年飞天茅台散瓶上涨了20元。24年、23年飞天茅台原箱散瓶也均有不同程度上涨， 其中，24年飞天原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了50元。 基金君所在的一个微信群中，一位黄牛直言茅台"缺货""不够卖"。据悉，目前飞天茅台和马茅仍是较为抢手的品类。 春节临近，茅台价格持续上涨。 今日酒价显示，1月29日，26年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）报1610元/瓶，较昨日上涨20元；25年飞天茅台原箱报1620元/瓶，较昨日上 涨20元。 | 茅台飞天 | | | 2026年1月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (公众号: 今日酒价) | | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 2 26年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1590 | 1610 ↑ | | 2 26年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1570 | ...

1月29日，古井贡酒涨5.14%，截至发稿，报132.45元/股，成交5.52亿元，换手率1.04%，总市值700.13 亿元。 资料显示，安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司位于安徽省亳州市古井镇古井产业园，成立日期1999年3月5日， 上市日期1996年9月27日，公司主营业务涉及白酒、啤酒、葡萄酒、酿酒设备、包装材料、玻璃瓶,酒 精、饲料、油脂、饮料,高新技术开发、生物技术开发、农副产品深加工的生产与销售等。主营业务收 入构成为：白酒业务98.27%，其他1.40%，酒店业务0.33%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，华商基金旗下1只基金重仓古井贡酒。华商消费行业股票（004189）四季度增持4700股，持 有股数9200股，占基金净值比例为6.85%，位居第三大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约5.95万元。 华商消费行业股票（004189）成立日期2017年3月15日，最新规模1780.42万。今年以来亏损1.96%，同 类排名5384/5551；近一年收益0.94%，同类排名4197/4285；成立以来亏损22.05%。 华商消费行业股票（004189）基金经理为崔志鹏。 截至发稿，崔志鹏累计任职时间2年28 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Luzhou Laojiao increased by 5.19%, reaching 118.80 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.778 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.04%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 174.867 billion CNY [1] - Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. is located at No. 71, Nanguang Road, Luzhou City, Sichuan Province, established on May 3, 1995, and listed on May 9, 1994. The company's main business involves the production and sales of Luzhou Laojiao series liquor [1] - The revenue composition of Luzhou Laojiao includes 91.45% from mid-to-high-end liquor, 8.20% from other liquor, and 0.34% from other income [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Luzhou Laojiao, Huatai-PB Fund's Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) reduced its holdings by 532,100 shares in the third quarter, now holding 12.5959 million shares, which accounts for 0.86% of the circulating shares [2] - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) was established on May 4, 2012, with a latest scale of 422.258 billion CNY. Year-to-date return is 1.99%, ranking 4476 out of 5551 in its category; the one-year return is 26.78%, ranking 2889 out of 4285; and since inception, the return is 120.49% [2] - The fund manager of Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF is Liu Jun, who has a cumulative tenure of 16 years and 244 days, managing total assets of 550.928 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 193.73% and the worst being -45.64% [2]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The Baijiu industry is undergoing significant adjustments due to the "Golden September and Silver October" policy, leading to a decline in mid-to-high-end consumption scenarios. The industry is expected to face its most challenging period in 2025, with a potential bottoming out in 2026-2027, contingent on macroeconomic recovery and consumer spending revival [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - The Baijiu market is shifting towards stock competition, with leading companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, Laojiao, and Fenjiu expected to increase their market share, while smaller enterprises face increasing pressure [1][3]. - The demand for sauce-flavored Baijiu remains optimistic despite the impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" policy, with Moutai's products, such as Feitian Moutai, showing increased opening rates [1][4]. - Moutai is implementing strategies such as introducing new products (e.g., Moutai 1,935) and price reductions to stabilize performance and improve product cost-effectiveness, which is expected to enhance terminal opening rates and reduce channel inventory [1][5]. Challenges and Opportunities - The sauce-flavored Baijiu segment is facing challenges due to the absence of government consumption scenarios, but the overall demand remains strong, supported by Moutai's leadership [4][6]. - The industry is experiencing a phase of quality-driven development, with head companies maintaining stable or slightly increased production capacity while smaller firms are reducing output [4][6]. Moutai's Recent Developments - Moutai has undergone significant changes, including personnel adjustments and a drop in Feitian Moutai prices from over 3,000 yuan to around 1,499 yuan, which has helped regain market control and alleviate consumer panic [7][8]. - The company plans to expand production by 19,800 tons, but the pace has slowed to 2,000 tons per year, extending the original five-year expansion plan to ten years [10]. Performance Expectations - Moutai's performance in 2026 is expected to be stable, with no significant fluctuations anticipated despite some product price reductions impacting profits [9]. - The company is expected to maintain a balance between volume and price for its key products, with a focus on stabilizing Feitian Moutai sales [16]. Other Companies to Watch - Attention should also be given to companies like Jinsha, Zhenjiu, and Fenjiu, with Zhenjiu currently in a transitional phase and facing challenges in achieving explosive growth [11][12]. - The performance of non-listed companies such as Xijiu and Langjiu is relatively positive, although they face specific challenges [23]. Market Dynamics - The channel profit and inventory situation for Baijiu companies indicate that while Langjiu is performing better than Xijiu, the latter is under significant pressure due to its state-owned management structure [24]. - The upcoming Spring Festival in 2026 is expected to see a 10% increase in Moutai's sales, aided by the "Love Moutai" platform, which facilitates easier access to genuine products [25][26]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the Baijiu industry, focusing on Moutai's strategies, market dynamics, and the overall outlook for the sector.

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong rebound, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) rising by 1.07% as of the latest report [1] - Major liquor stocks are seeing significant gains, with Luzhou Laojiao up over 4%, and Kweichow Moutai and Gujing Gongjiu both rising over 3% [1] - The latest public fund report shows that Kweichow Moutai remains a top holding, reflecting its resilience and the confidence it brings to the liquor industry during adjustment periods [3] Group 2 - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low valuation, with the PE ratio of the underlying index for the Huabao ETF at 19.09, which is in the 1.37% percentile of the last decade [3] - Analysts suggest that the food and beverage sector is positioned for significant investment value due to low valuations and improving fundamentals, with CPI showing a mild recovery [4] - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with a significant portion also allocated to beverages, dairy, and seasoning sectors [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai continues to rise, with the 25-year Feitian bottle price returning to the 1600 yuan mark, driven by seasonal demand and company policies to control supply [1][4]. Price Trends - As of January 28, 2026, the wholesale prices for various Moutai products have increased, with the 26-year Feitian original box priced at 1590 yuan (up 35 yuan), and the 25-year Feitian original box at 1600 yuan (up 35 yuan) [1][2]. - The 23-year and 24-year Feitian products also saw price increases, with the 23-year original box now at 1820 yuan and the 24-year original box at 1750 yuan [2]. Market Dynamics - The classic version of the Zodiac Horse Moutai has experienced a price increase for three consecutive days, totaling a rise of 400 yuan per bottle, influenced by previous packaging errors that led to speculation in the secondary market [3]. - Retail prices for Feitian Moutai have reportedly risen to around 1700 yuan per bottle, with significant demand observed due to the upcoming holiday season [3]. Company Strategy - Industry expert Xiao Zhuqing noted that the recent price increases are largely due to Moutai's proactive measures to control supply and stabilize prices, particularly in light of seasonal demand during the Spring Festival [4]. - Moutai's strategy includes pausing shipments and reducing non-standard products to stabilize market sentiment, indicating a focus on policy intervention rather than purely market-driven demand [4]. Stock Performance - Despite the rising prices of Feitian Moutai, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) has been underperforming, with a notable decline of over 6% during a nine-day losing streak, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion yuan [7][8]. - Analysts from CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan suggest that the white liquor industry may stabilize and recover, with expectations for steady sales during the upcoming Spring Festival [7].

Summary of Key Points Industry Overview - The report discusses the premium liquor industry, specifically focusing on the sales and pricing of the 53-degree, 500ml Feitian Moutai liquor, which has seen a significant price increase due to favorable demand during the Spring Festival season [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The price of Feitian Moutai has risen to approximately 1600 RMB per bottle, reflecting a strong demand driven by the Spring Festival [1][2]. - There is a noted shortage of inventory in some direct sales stores of Moutai, indicating a supply constraint in the market [1][2]. - Only customers who successfully purchase through the iMoutai platform are guaranteed to have access to the product, highlighting the competitive nature of the current market [1][2]. Additional Important Information - The increase in price and inventory shortages may suggest potential investment opportunities or risks within the premium liquor sector, particularly for companies like Moutai that are heavily influenced by seasonal demand [1][2].