出口链有哪些短期超跌及中长期机会？20250507 摘要 • 静态估算显示，利用 2018-2019 年数据计算得出关税弹性为 1.7，即中 美贸易额因关税每增加 10%而萎缩 17%。通过分析上市公司对美营收敞 口，结合营收下降与净利润下降系数 1.3，可评估各行业净利润受损情况。 • 部分行业如消费电子、厨电、工业金属和能源金属已现超跌，股价跌幅超 过净利润受损程度，估值显著下降。原因在于这些行业面临长期营收空缺， 需下调估值。 • 在维持当前 145%对等关税或更差情况下维持 125%对等关税加 20%分摊 抵消的情景假设下，各行业可能继续面临超跌风险，政策不确定性增加。 • 根据 232 调查结果，加征 25%关税（总税率达 45%）情景下，厨电、工 业金属和能源金属超跌明显，消费电子已被剔除。此为较为悲观的假设。 • 若中美谈判取得进展，关税退回至 54%水平并维持 232 调查相关品种的 豁免状态，目前超跌行业与现状相似，部分行业反弹空间较大。 • 最乐观情景下，取消 125%对等关税，仅加征 20%反倾销关税，且不新增 25%关税产品，小家电、厨电、消费电子、电池、通信设备、纺织制造及 部分工业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved total revenue of 7.375 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.190 billion yuan, up 38.55% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.932 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 58.22% year-on-year. Both revenue and net profit reached historical highs in 2024 [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 7.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.190 billion yuan, which is a 38.55% increase year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.932 billion yuan, marking a 58.22% year-on-year growth [2][3]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.24%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 533 million yuan, up 23.02% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.28% [2]. Market Demand and Product Development - The revenue growth in 2024 was driven by the continuous recovery in demand from downstream sectors such as consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and optical communications, leading to a steady increase in orders. Additionally, the company's MLCC products have made significant technological and market breakthroughs, enhancing brand competitiveness and resulting in substantial sales growth [1][3]. - The company has made progress in developing new products in the optical communication sector, driven by the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, which has altered market demand dynamics and raised performance and manufacturing standards [3]. Product Diversification - The company has gradually overcome key production technologies for MLCC, launching a diversified range of products including automotive-grade, industrial-grade, consumer-grade, and mobile terminal series, forming a relatively comprehensive product matrix that meets diverse application scenarios and customer needs [4]. - In 2024, the company developed precision ceramic components for the semiconductor sector and entered the medical field with its subsidiary successfully registering a ceramic hip joint component with the National Medical Products Administration [5]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 9.050 billion yuan, 11.160 billion yuan, and 13.552 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders projected at 2.669 billion yuan, 3.330 billion yuan, and 4.117 billion yuan for the same years. The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 24.62, 19.73, and 15.96 [6].

Monetary Policy and Financial Market - The People's Bank of China has decided to lower the re-lending rate by 0.25 percentage points, effective from May 7, 2025, with new rates for various terms set at 1.2%, 1.4%, and 1.5% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year loans respectively [1] - The total scale of ETFs in the Shanghai market has surpassed 3 trillion yuan, with over 680 products available, including stock, bond, commodity, and cross-border assets [1] - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the new rate for first-time homebuyers set at 2.6% for loans over five years, potentially reducing total interest payments by approximately 47,600 yuan for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years [1] Smartphone Market - In Q1 2025, China's smartphone market saw a year-on-year shipment increase of 9%, reaching 68.7 million units, marking five consecutive quarters of growth [2] - The growth is attributed to normalized inventory levels, steady channel expansion, and improved economic conditions following alleviated concerns in the real estate market [2] Paper Industry - The China Paper Association reported that the paper industry is expected to achieve a total profit of 52 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.23% [2] - The industry's revenue is projected to reach 1.46 trillion yuan, a 3.88% increase from the previous year [2] Investment Activities - Uber is set to invest an additional 100 million USD in WeRide, marking its largest investment in the autonomous driving sector to date [3] - The establishment of a financial asset investment company (AIC) by Industrial Bank has been approved, with a six-month timeline for completion [5] - The venture capital firm Dongfang Fuhai has applied to pilot technology innovation bonds, potentially becoming the first private investment institution to participate [5] Company Performance - Kemin Foods reported a sales revenue of 70.9 million yuan from pig sales in April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.04% [6] - Taiji Co. announced the purchase of 50 million yuan in wealth management products to enhance fund utilization efficiency [7] - Jinguang Co. and its subsidiary won multiple projects totaling approximately 258 million yuan, covering various electrical equipment and infrastructure projects [9] - Daqin Railway reported a cargo transport volume of 30.62 million tons in April, a year-on-year increase of 0.99% [10]

工商银行东莞分行方面介绍，该行始终聚焦金融"五篇大文章"，借助资金流信息平台，探索推动其在供 应链金融、科创金融等场景的深度应用。通过扩大覆盖面、加大宣传推广力度，并强化贷前审核、贷中 评估及贷后管理等关键环节的应用，提升服务能力，转变服务方式，创新服务产品；通过数据赋能打破 银企信息壁垒，支持信贷资金精准直达中小微企业。 采写：南都记者 唐国轩 东莞工行方面介绍，东莞市群奥电子有限公司（以下简称"群奥电子"）是资金流信息平台上线以来我行 的首批受益企业。作为专注电容电阻研发、生产、销售的国家高新技术企业，群奥电子连续三年保持纳 税信用A级企业资质。但因企业存在产业链上下游客户地域分散、有效抵质押物不足、营业收入跨银行 账户结算以及进项抵扣导致纳税基数偏低等客观因素，传统授信模式下基于结算流水、纳税金额及工资 代发等维度的评估体系流程繁琐、成本高昂，导致企业长期面临融资难、融资贵的问题。 "依托资金流信息平台，我们的供应链交易资金流数据可实时验证，并作为可信信息直接提供给银行， 节省了银行实地尽职调查的时间。"群奥电子财务负责人表示，"资金流信息平台上线后，我们的融资审 批周期大大缩短，需要提交的申请材料也相 ...

中国质量新闻网讯 近日，广东省肇庆市市场监管局联合人民银行肇庆市分行进一步加大金融支持科技 成果转化应用力度，针对专利（技术）入股这一重要的科技成果转化方式，创新推出"技术入股贷"融资 模式，并指导协调工商银行肇庆分行于近期成功落地全国首笔以专利技术为质押的"技术入股贷"600万 元。 下一步，肇庆市市场监管局与人民银行肇庆市分行将在推广"技术入股贷"实现增量扩面基础上，持续创 新推广更多专利等知识产权成果转化融资模式，促进科技成果加快转化为新质生产力，推动"科技—产 业—金融"良性循环。（余艺琳） "技术入股贷"融资模式以"技术入股+知识产权质押融资"为主要内容，鼓励银行针对企业通过转让股权 方式获得的专利等知识产权，将相应股权的价值作为知识产权价值评估重要依据，向企业发放知识产权 质押融资的一种贷款模式。该模式实现科技型企业股权和债权融资的有效融合，让技术要素真正成为可 定价、可增值的资本要素，有效丰富了知识产权内部评估路径，拓宽了科技型企业融资渠道。 肇庆市市场监管局与人民银行肇庆市分行积极深化合作，深入了解企业融资需求，充分发挥技术入股企 业在知识产权等技术方面的优势，建立技术入股企业名录（共37家） ...

Group 1 - The government of Danjiangkou has actively coordinated land issues for companies, leading to the completion of new facilities such as R&D centers and medical endoscope optical component factories in 2023 [1] - The city of Zhenjiang has been continuously improving its business environment since 2021, with a focus on creating a market-oriented, legal, and international business climate [1] - Zhenjiang's comprehensive credit index for January to February 2023 is 91.39, ranking eighth among 261 prefecture-level cities in China [1] Group 2 - The expansion project of Jiangsu Lichangrong High-Performance Materials Co., Ltd. has commenced, with an annual production capacity of 45,000 tons of electronic-grade isopropanol, primarily supplying major semiconductor companies [2] - The project faced challenges in energy-saving review procedures, which were resolved through direct communication with local government and industry experts [2] Group 3 - Zhenjiang has implemented measures to accelerate the construction and operation of major projects, achieving an investment of 17.03 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2023, exceeding the planned schedule by 2.9 percentage points [3] - A total of 165 new projects have been initiated, with a completion rate of 70.3% [3] Group 4 - The "white list" system for administrative inspections has received positive feedback from businesses, aiming to reduce unnecessary regulatory burdens [4] - Jiangzhou Auto Parts Co., Ltd. successfully obtained a 20 million yuan loan from a local bank to support its expansion in the electric vehicle sector [4] Group 5 - Zhenjiang's financial support mechanisms for small and micro enterprises have resulted in over 21,600 companies receiving credit totaling 110.41 billion yuan and loans amounting to 85.48 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2023 [5] Group 6 - The establishment of a "direct communication" service mechanism between government and enterprises has facilitated the resolution of operational challenges, such as the swift opening of a new cinema after resolving lease issues [6] - The city has appointed 52 new business environment supervisors to enhance service delivery and responsiveness to enterprise needs [6]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) by A-share listed companies is on the rise, driven by the need to expand global markets and restructure value amidst global economic adjustments and industry chain reconstruction [1] Group 1: Acquisition of Core Technologies - Acquiring core technologies is a primary goal for many listed companies engaging in overseas M&A, allowing them to enhance technical capabilities, product value, and industry influence [2] - Companies can quickly gain new technologies and enter new markets, exemplified by Lingyun Optical Technology's investment in PhotonicX AI to access next-generation optical communication technologies [2] Group 2: Expanding Overseas Markets - Overseas M&A serves as a crucial strategy for companies to overcome geographical limitations and reshape market presence, with 2,405 A-share companies reporting foreign revenues exceeding 10 million yuan in 2024 [3] - For instance, Jinko Power Technology's acquisition of a 50% stake in UAE's Sweihan Holding aims to enhance its brand influence in the Middle East and tap into renewable energy projects [3] Group 3: Resource Integration and Industry Ecosystem Reconstruction - Many companies view overseas M&A as a means to integrate key resources globally, forming complementary advantages and building a more efficient and competitive industry ecosystem [4] - This ecosystem reconstruction can lower production costs, improve operational efficiency, and enhance innovation capabilities, positioning companies favorably within global supply chains [4] - Supportive policies from the government, such as the recent financial measures to facilitate cross-border M&A, further stimulate the overseas M&A market for listed companies [4] - The shift from "scale chasing" to "value leading" in overseas M&A activities indicates a focus on high-quality acquisitions, with expectations for continued growth in this area [4]

Group 1: Overview of Yihe New District - Yihe New District is experiencing significant industrial vitality, with a focus on "intelligent manufacturing" and innovation-driven development [2][10] - The district aims to achieve an industrial output value of 89.29 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 10% [2] Group 2: Gree Electric - Gree Electric's new manufacturing base in Yihe New District is the largest intelligent manufacturing project in Northern China, with a production capacity of 325,000 air conditioners and a revenue of 479 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 164% year-on-year increase [3][4] - The base integrates industrial robots and smart warehousing, achieving over 90% automation in the production process [3] Group 3: Yuanshun Technology - Yuanshun Technology has transformed from a small workshop to a smart factory, targeting an annual output value of 3 billion yuan, with a new investment of 1.2 billion yuan planned for 2024 [5][7] - The company has received multiple accolades for its advancements in digital and intelligent manufacturing, including partnerships with Fudan University for industrial robotics [5][6] Group 4: Jinli Hydraulic - Jinli Hydraulic's new project has turned previously idle land into a productive site, with an expected annual output value increase of 3 billion yuan [8][9] - The district has implemented innovative land management strategies, resulting in a significant increase in land supply and efficiency, with 6,621 acres of land allocated for industrial use in 2024 [9] Group 5: Overall Industrial Transformation - The transformation of traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing is evident in the Yihe New District, with various companies adopting advanced technologies such as AI and 5G [6][10] - The district's comprehensive reforms, including land revitalization and financial support, are driving the growth of industrial clusters and enhancing overall productivity [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, but faced a decline in net profit and profitability margins, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability despite increased sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.084 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 42 million yuan, down 28.01% year-on-year [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 28 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 47.36% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 15.71%, a decline of 8.49 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin stood at 4.01%, down 3.88 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cost Control - The company demonstrated effective cost control with the following expense ratios: - Sales expense ratio: 3.10%, down 0.30 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Management expense ratio: 5.08%, down 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] - R&D expense ratio: 4.56%, up 0.67 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Financial expense ratio: 0.25%, down 0.84 percentage points year-on-year [2] Global Expansion and Capacity Layout - The company is actively pursuing product innovation and category expansion, particularly in the automotive sector, with products like automotive inductors and power supplies gaining market recognition and driving revenue growth [3] - The company has successfully established production bases in Huainan, China, Malaysia, and Thailand, enhancing its capacity for overseas market expansion [3] - Ongoing construction of facilities in the United States and Mexico is progressing as planned, further strengthening the company's global capacity layout [3] Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of 5.833 billion yuan, 6.865 billion yuan, and 7.677 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.75%, 17.68%, and 11.83% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 390 million yuan, 498 million yuan, and 618 million yuan, with growth rates of 33.24%, 27.82%, and 24.10% respectively [4] - The company anticipates further growth in overseas revenue and a recovery in profitability, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

·震荡市有望涌现结构性机遇券商5月配置看好三大方向 中国证券报 展望5月A股市场表现，多位业内人士认为，A股大概率会在区间内波动，市场预计呈现震荡修复态势， 并以结构性行情为主，风格上有望回归科技成长；配置方面，内需消费和科技成长继续作为值得关注的 重点配置方向，红利资产作为应对冲击的防御性资产仍有一定配置空间，黄金等"安全类资产"若出现调 整，则可能构成中期较好的布局机会。 ·中国资产走强 A股风险偏好有望提升 五一假期期间，中国资产走强，恒生指数上涨1.74%，恒生科技指数涨逾3%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数累 计涨近3%。分析人士认为，海外市场反弹，港股上扬，A股市场有望迎来节后开门红。年报和一季报 业绩落地，叠加关税冲击逐渐减弱，A股市场风险偏好有望提升。 ·车企花式优惠手段多新车型供给丰富 新华财经北京5月6日电四大证券报内容精华摘要如下： "五一"假期，记者实地探访了北京、杭州等多个汽车销售门店注意到，车企纷纷推出花式促销活动，包 括限时尾款直减、赠送辅助驾驶系统使用权益、赠送充电服务权益等。车企花式优惠活动，叠加以旧换 新政策，部分车型综合优惠超过5万元。业内人士指出，政策组合效应将持续释放，车企新品 ...