Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3600 points on July 23, with a current increase of 0.16%, driven by strong performance in financial stocks such as brokerages and insurance [1] - The A500 ETF (512050), which tracks the CSI A500 Index, is experiencing a five-day upward trend, with real-time trading volume exceeding 3.7 billion yuan, making it the top performer among similar products [1] - The CSI A500 Index employs a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading stock selection, covering all 35 sub-industries, and is overweight in new productivity sectors like AI, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy [1] Group 2 - As of July 22, 329 A-share listed companies have announced plans for mid-term profit distribution for 2025, indicating a trend towards frequent dividends and high dividend yield companies gaining favor among investors [2] - Analysts expect that the overall performance of A-share listed companies will improve in the first half of 2025, particularly in high-concentration industries such as upstream resources, AI, and non-bank financial sectors [2] - Recent increases in A-share trading volume suggest that outside funds are entering the market, with the index reaching new highs, potentially leading to a continued upward trend in the index [2]

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 7 月 21 日 002938.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 47.46 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 33.3 54.7 67.9 26.3 相对深圳成指 25.1 47.4 56.4 3.4 发行股数 (百万) 2,318.05 流通股 (百万) 2,306.78 总市值 (人民币 百万) 110,014.70 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 1,004.54 主要股东 美港实业有限公司 66.17% (30%) (18%) (6%) 7% 19% 31% Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 鹏鼎控股 深圳成指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 7 月 18 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《鹏鼎控股》20250411 《鹏鼎控股》20241031 《鹏鼎控股》20240815 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨 ...

Group 1 - The current price recovery in China may reshape the global demand cycle, output cycle, profit distribution, and capital flow [2][12] - The global advantage of China's output system is reflected in asset pricing, leading to a systematic PB (Price-to-Book) adjustment, with Chinese assets expected to rise rapidly and the RMB (Renminbi) likely to appreciate [2][12] - Focus is on non-bank financials, low PB stocks, Hang Seng Technology, and military industry, while paying attention to long-term bonds and micro-market risks [3][12] Group 2 - In June, China's exports showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, improving from 4.7% previously, and exports to the US saw a significant month-on-month increase of 32.44% [11][12] - The report indicates a broad recovery in commodity prices in China, suggesting a potential restructuring of globalization, moving away from the previous US-dominated profit monopoly [12] - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.84% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.53% [13][15] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [19][31] - The healthcare sector outperformed, with significant gains in cancer treatment concepts and biopharmaceuticals [18][31] - High-end manufacturing sectors showed strong relative performance, while financial and real estate sectors faced declines [31][32] Group 4 - The report highlights a divergence in foreign capital index futures positions, with IC turning into a net short position and IF expanding its net short position, while IH remained stable [41][42] - The onshore and offshore RMB swap yields have declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing the yields of Chinese bonds and swaps [45][46] Group 5 - Upcoming key focus includes the US M2 money supply and new home sales data [47][49]

Group 1 - The performance of A-shares is expected to benefit from overseas expansion, which is a strong indicator of exceeding expectations in earnings [1] - The market is transitioning to seek new scenarios as the mid-year earnings forecast season comes to an end [2] - A-shares are anticipated to show a slight upward trend in July, supported by stable export conditions and potential breakthroughs in technology sectors [3] Group 2 - The domestic economic recovery path is becoming clearer, with factors such as anti-involution policies and the relative advantage of A-shares compared to other markets [2] - The equity market is likely to maintain a strong oscillating trend due to positive signals from domestic policies and improving earnings in certain sectors [4] - Key investment areas include technology growth sectors, traditional cyclical industries benefiting from policy changes, and financial sectors with high dividend yields [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from sustained high demand in AI and HPC sectors, leading to a projected increase in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [3][8] - The company aims to optimize its product structure and enhance high-end production capacity, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5][8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at RMB 177.07 billion, RMB 223.07 billion, and RMB 278.44 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 36.29 billion, RMB 50.66 billion, and RMB 64.92 billion [5][7] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 32.7% in 2025, 26.0% in 2026, and 24.8% in 2027 [7][11] - The company anticipates a net profit of RMB 16.50-17.50 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.63%-53.40% [8] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Bijiing (British Virgin Islands) Holdings Limited, holding 19.33% of the shares [2] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance with a 26.5% increase year-to-date and an 85.0% increase over the past 12 months [2]

Market Overview - The three major stock indices in China collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3516.83 points, up 0.37% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10873.62 points, up 1.43% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2269.33 points, up 1.76% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The electronic components sector led the gains, with companies like Mankun Technology hitting the daily limit of 20% increase, and Shengyi Electronics rising over 13% [4] - The CPO concept showed strong performance throughout the day, while the military equipment sector was also active, with companies like Zongheng Co. and Chenxi Aviation seeing significant increases [5][6] - Conversely, the precious metals sector experienced declines, with Shandong Gold dropping over 2% [7] Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed a net inflow into sectors such as electronics, computers, and communications, while there was a net outflow from public utilities, real estate, and coal sectors [8] - Specific stocks like Changshan Beiming and Runhe Software saw net inflows of 2 billion yuan and 925 million yuan, respectively [9] - On the outflow side, companies like China Electric Power and Sunshine Power faced sell-offs of 444 million yuan and 397 million yuan, respectively [10] Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities noted that overseas liquidity remains volatile, with a short-term rebound in the US dollar, leading to limited domestic opportunities in July [12] - CITIC Securities highlighted that mid-year performance reports could drive market sentiment towards technology sectors [13] - Galaxy Securities mentioned that the large financial sector is entering a phase of rotation and adjustment [14]

盘面上，CPO概念全天强势，军工装备板块活跃，医药、消费电子、钢铁板块涨幅居前；贵金属板块低 迷，地产、银行、燃气、电力股跌幅居前。 7月17日，三大股指集体收涨，沪指报收3516.83点，涨0.37%；深成指报收10873.62点，涨1.43%；创业 板指报收2269.33点，涨1.76%。沪深两市全天成交额1.54万亿，较上个交易日放量973亿。全市场超 3500只个股上涨，超1600只个股下跌。 盘面上，CPO概念全天强势，军工装备板块活跃，医药、消费电子、钢铁板块涨幅居前；贵金属板块低 迷，地产、银行、燃气、电力股跌幅居前。 | 板块名称 | | 涨幅♣ 主力净量 主力金额 | | 板块名称 | 涨幅合 | 主力净量 | 王力金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元件 | +4.64% | 1.95 | +26.95 Z | 贵金属 | -1.01% | -1.67 | -5.51 乙 | | 兵装重组概念 | +4.22% | 2.04 | +7.747 | 保险 | -0.71% | -0.02 | +8580万 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" theme has gained significant attention in the A-share market, with various sectors such as steel, photovoltaic, and building materials experiencing substantial growth due to policy-driven changes aimed at reducing disorderly competition [3][5][10]. Market Performance - As of July 17, A-shares opened lower but quickly turned positive, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%, led by sectors like innovative drugs, PCB, consumer goods, and photovoltaics [1]. - In the past month, the photovoltaic equipment index increased by 15.55%, while the overall market saw nearly 3,000 stocks rise [7][9]. Sector Analysis - The "anti-involution" theme has led to significant gains in various sectors, with the steel, building materials, and electric equipment industries seeing increases of over 8% in the last 18 trading days [2]. - Key indices reflecting this trend include the circuit board index up by 3.74%, and the glass fiber index up by 20.21% [2][9]. Policy Impact - The Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1 emphasized the need to build a unified national market and regulate low-price competition, which is expected to guide the "anti-involution" policy across key industries [5][10]. - The current phase of the "anti-involution" market is characterized as a policy-driven expectation stage, with potential for further development depending on the implementation of policies and capacity clearance [3][18]. Investment Opportunities - Investment firms are increasingly focusing on sectors involved in the "anti-involution" theme, particularly those with historically low valuations and significant potential for recovery [12][13]. - Key sectors identified for investment include traditional industries like steel and cement, as well as emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [10][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" market could evolve through three stages: initial policy-driven expectations, followed by resource price increases, and finally, sustained high prices [3][18]. - The current market is still in the expectation phase, and future developments will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation and the recovery of corporate profits [18].

Market Overview - On July 15, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.56% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.73%[3] - The total trading volume in both markets exceeded 1.61 trillion yuan, showing a week-on-week increase[1] Investment Strategy - The current market is in the early stage of a rally, characterized by slow rises and sharp declines, with a focus on weight stocks to attract investors[1] - Investors are advised to switch to dividend stocks or hold quality stocks during corrections, avoiding arbitrary adjustments to their portfolios[2] Fund Flow - On July 15, the Shanghai Stock Exchange saw a net outflow of 13.505 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange experienced a net inflow of 18.733 billion yuan[4] Economic Data - China's GDP for the first half of 2025 grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4%[5] - Fixed asset investment rose by 2.8% year-on-year, totaling 248.654 billion yuan, while retail sales increased by 5.0% to 245.458 billion yuan[5] Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics predicts a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year, supported by stable economic growth and effective demand expansion policies[8] Industry Developments - The 11th batch of national drug procurement is expected to start soon, with preparations underway[9] - Inner Mongolia is focusing on developing hydrogen energy equipment manufacturing in key cities[10] ETF Market - The ETF market has seen a surge in new issuances this year, with the number of newly established ETFs and their fundraising exceeding the total for the entire year of 2024[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 11.98 billion to 12.60 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.79% to 60.62%. The estimated net profit for Q2 2025 is around 7.41 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 158%, with revenues projected at approximately 83 billion yuan, a growth of about 29% [1] - The competitive landscape for FPC (Flexible Printed Circuit) is strengthening, driven by increased demand for high-density designs in AI terminals, AR/VR, and foldable screens. The company is expected to gain market share as it secures more orders from major clients, leading to rapid growth in FPC value and revenue [2] - The automotive and server markets present significant growth opportunities. The company is accelerating the development and commercialization of automotive PCB products and has achieved mass production of radar computing boards and domain control boards, collaborating with several domestic Tier 1 manufacturers [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 40.87 billion, 46.58 billion, and 51.99 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 14%, and 12%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.495 billion, 5.296 billion, and 6.059 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 24%, 18%, and 14% respectively [4][5] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 20, 17, and 15 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4]