本周，A股市场震荡，主要宽基指数出现了一定的分化，其中，科创50指数、创业板指数表现较 好，周涨幅均超过1.5%，上证指数、上证50指数、微盘股指数表现较差，周跌幅均超过1%。 下周一，将迎来国新办的新闻发布会，"一行一局一会"领导的出席引发了市场的期盼。 那么，大盘能重续升势吗？后市机会又在哪里？今天，达哥和牛博士就大家关心的话题展开讨论。 牛博士：你好，达哥，又到周末我们聊行情的时间。周末，大家最为关注的是下周一将举行的国新 办新闻发布会，很多人期待重磅政策，对此你怎么看？本周市场震荡，下周会有较好的表现吗？ 道达：明天的国新办新闻发布会，虽然很多人对政策比较期待，但我认为不要抱有太高的预期。这 方面，我们可以从表述来观察。 去年9月24日，国新办举行新闻发布会，在官方的预告中，其表述为"介绍金融支持经济高质量发展 有关情况"。明天的国新办新闻发布会，表述为"介绍'十四五'时期金融业发展成就"。 虽然两场新闻发布会都有"一行一局一会"领导的出席，但比较明显的是，前者重在金融支持的政策 措施，带有明显的利好预期；后者重在介绍发展成就，带有回顾总结的性质。 此外，还有两点有必要提一下。 首先，在去年9月24日 ...

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 2025 年 9 月 15 日-9 月 19 日，A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化态势，主要指数 涨跌互现。市场风格主要表现为成长占优，以创业板为代表的科技成长板块 表现相对较强；权重板块承压，大金融、资源类板块调整压力较大。市场分 歧有所加剧，周内、日内涨跌幅波动加大，部分资金在美联储降息 25bp 靴 子落地后选择获利了结，而另一些资金选择继续布局成长主线。整体来看， 我们认为"存款搬家"仍在途中，市场资金面活跃，各类资金积极入市，市 场强势的科技主线逻辑没有改变，当前应无惧市场波动，慢牛行情仍在进行 之中。 热点一：美联储 9 月降息行情提前反映，降息落地后市场波动有所加大 进入 9 月以来，在美联储公布 9 月议息会议结果前，市场提前反映降息预期， 以人工智能、半导体、固态电池为代表的成长板块加速上涨。9 月 17 日，美 联储议息会议如市场预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是美联储 2025 年的首次降息。但是，由于此前国内股市 涨幅过快过高，短期内部分资金趁着降息 25bp 利好的兑现而选择了 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with the underperforming banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Strategies - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stop here. They highlight the positive implications of the recent US-China talks and the potential for capital market reforms to accelerate, suggesting that the A/H share indices may reach new highs [2] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market is in the making, with a focus on cyclical opportunities in manufacturing and a shift from technology-driven growth to export-oriented growth as liquidity constraints ease [2] - Zheshang Securities anticipates continued consolidation in the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach and suggesting adjustments in sector allocations, particularly reducing exposure to technology and media while increasing positions in real estate and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities expects the A-share market to maintain a volatile pattern leading up to the National Day holiday, with a focus on structural balance amid potential profit-taking [4] - China Merchants Securities notes a historical pattern of financing trends around the National Day holiday, suggesting a potential rebound in market sentiment post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial Securities emphasizes a rotational investment strategy to navigate market volatility, advocating for a diversified approach across multiple sectors [6][7] - CITIC Securities highlights the clarity in market trading themes following the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery as key drivers [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of structural support from policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four main investment themes in the construction sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [11]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with stagnant performance in banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Insights - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stagnate and is expected to reach new highs, driven by favorable conditions such as a stable short-term risk outlook and potential capital market reforms [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market may be in the making, with opportunities arising from the easing of liquidity constraints and a shift towards cyclical manufacturing sectors like non-ferrous metals, machinery, and chemicals [2] - Zheshang Securities suggests a period of consolidation for the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach to investment and a focus on sectors like hard technology and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities anticipates continued market fluctuations leading up to the National Day holiday, with a tendency for funds to secure profits amid uncertainties [4] - According to China Merchants Securities, historical patterns suggest that financing activities typically contract before the holiday and surge afterward, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial rotation is emphasized by Industrial Securities, advocating for a diversified approach to investment to navigate market volatility [6][7] - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the clarity in future market trends following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of sectors like AI and essential materials [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four investment themes in the construction sector, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [10]

Group 1 - The overall industry selection framework focuses on resources, new productive forces, and globalization [1][2] - Resource stocks are shifting from cyclical attributes to dividend attributes due to supply constraints and global geopolitical tensions [1] - The globalization of China's manufacturing leaders is expected to enhance pricing power and profit margins, leading to market capitalization growth beyond domestic economic fundamentals [1][2] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the demand for assets and capital market reforms aimed at improving investor returns [2][3] - Recent communication between Chinese and U.S. leaders indicates a stabilization of short-term risks, while a weak dollar and overseas rate cuts favor China's monetary easing [2] - The market is anticipated to experience adjustments that present opportunities, with A/H indices likely to reach new highs [2][3] Group 3 - The current market remains in a consolidation phase, with active trading and a positive funding environment [3][4] - The key to sustaining the market's upward momentum lies in the profitability of investments, with a focus on sectors like domestic computing, innovative pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [3][4] - The market is still in a bull phase, with three main drivers for the current upward trend remaining unchanged [4][5] Group 4 - Foreign capital continues to flow into the Chinese stock market, with significant inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [5][6] - The recent decline in high-priced options indicates a cautious approach among investors regarding the upward potential of the market [5][6] - The overall sentiment remains bullish for the long term, despite short-term adjustments [5][6] Group 5 - The market is characterized by sector rotation rather than a simple switch from high to low positions, focusing on industry trends and profitability [6][9] - The emphasis is on identifying opportunities within sectors that are experiencing growth and have not been fully priced in [9][10] - The potential for low-position stocks to experience a rebound is increasing as the market transitions into the fourth quarter [10][11] Group 6 - The recovery of cash flow in export-oriented manufacturing is expected to continue, driven by anti-involution policies and global re-industrialization [11] - The valuation system for China's advantageous manufacturing sectors is likely to be systematically reshaped [11] - The main investment themes include hard currency assets, hard technology, and manufacturing benefiting from anti-involution policies [11]

Group 1: LiDAR Industry - The demand for LiDAR in the robotics market has surged, with a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in domestic sales of robot LiDAR sensors in the first half of the year [1] - Industrial robot production reached 370,000 units, while service robot production hit 8.824 million units, representing year-on-year growth of 35.6% and 25.5% respectively [1] - The Chinese LiDAR market is projected to grow to 24.07 billion yuan by 2025 and further to 43.18 billion yuan by 2026, driven by advancements in AI technology [1] Group 2: HBM Market - Samsung Electronics has received certification for its 12-layer HBM 3E product from NVIDIA, marking a significant milestone for the company [2] - This certification positions Samsung alongside SK Hynix and Micron as key suppliers in NVIDIA's HBM supply chain, with potential for exponential sales growth in the coming year [2] - The overall HBM consumption is expected to increase significantly, with a projected annual production growth rate of 105% by 2025, reaching a total output of 540,000 units [2] Group 3: Artificial Intelligence Hardware - OpenAI has partnered with Luxshare Precision to produce future OpenAI devices, including smart speakers and wearable technology [3] - The first batch of devices is expected to launch by late 2026 or early 2027, indicating OpenAI's strategic move into AI-native hardware [3] - The new products aim to replace certain smartphone functionalities, potentially capturing a market share worth trillions [3] Group 4: New Battery Technologies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to enhance the strategic layout of the new battery industry, focusing on solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries as key priorities [4] - The market for new battery technologies is anticipated to grow from $480 billion in 2025 to $780 billion by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 11% [4] - The expansion of the new energy vehicle market and energy storage capacity are primary drivers of this growth [4] Group 5: Automotive Aftermarket - The Ministry of Commerce is initiating reforms in the automotive aftermarket to stimulate consumption and innovation [5] - The focus will be on removing restrictive measures in the automotive consumption sector to unlock potential in the aftermarket [5]

Group 1 - The brokerage strategies remain positive, addressing market concerns such as high-low switching, market style in Q4, and the pace of retail investor entry [1] - The strategy team from Xingzheng emphasizes that the current market rotation is driven by incremental funds and economic advantages, focusing on identifying opportunities based on economic logic and industry trends rather than simple position switching [1][7] - The Citic strategy team highlights the importance of the globalization of leading Chinese manufacturing firms, which is expected to enhance pricing power and profit margins, leading to market capitalization growth beyond domestic economic fundamentals [1][7] Group 2 - The strategy team from招商策略 notes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September historically correlates with a higher probability of A/H shares rising in the future [4] - Historical data indicates that the market tends to be relatively flat before the National Day holiday, but risk appetite improves significantly afterward, with over 60% probability of gains in major indices during the week following the holiday [4][8] - The strategy team from广发分析 suggests that the current rise in retail investor sentiment is still in its early stages, with various indicators showing that the market is not yet experiencing significant capital outflow from savings [1][9] Group 3 - The strategy from信达 suggests that the market is likely to continue its upward trend, with the current environment favoring strong industry trends while maintaining flexibility in high-low switching strategies [8] - The analysis indicates that the market is currently in a bull phase, with expectations of increased retail investment in the coming year, supported by a favorable policy environment [8] - The strategy team from国全策略 believes that the true bull market has not yet begun, but signs of recovery in corporate earnings and the potential for a new market cycle are emerging [9]

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry, particularly focusing on companies like CATL, EVE Energy, Sungrow Power, and others, indicating a positive outlook for high-quality development in the energy storage sector [1][2]. Core Insights - CATL's chairman emphasized that the low pricing of energy storage cells is unsustainable, suggesting a shift towards high-quality development in the industry [1]. - Panasonic plans to launch solid-state battery samples in 2026, targeting industrial applications, while SK On aims for commercial production by 2029 [2][60]. - The report highlights the recovery of offshore wind power subsidies in the Netherlands, with a budget of approximately €1 billion for next year [3]. - The renewable energy sector is set to receive significant subsidies, with the Ministry of Finance allocating ¥46.18 billion for renewable energy price subsidies [3][62]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage - CATL's chairman stated that the current energy storage system pricing is significantly below costs, indicating a need for price recovery and quality improvement in the sector [1]. - Recommended companies in the energy storage sector include EVE Energy, Sungrow Power, and others, with a focus on high-quality development [1]. Solid-State Batteries - Panasonic plans to release solid-state battery samples in 2026, focusing on high-temperature industrial applications [2]. - SK On has completed its solid-state battery pilot plant and aims for commercial production by 2029, with a focus on high energy density products [60]. Renewable Energy - The Dutch government has reinstated offshore wind power subsidies, planning to allocate around €1 billion for the next year [3]. - The report mentions a ¥46.18 billion subsidy for renewable energy prices, with solar power receiving the largest share [62]. Electric Vehicles - The report recommends CATL and other companies in the electric vehicle sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Data Centers - Microsoft is investing $7.3 billion in AI data centers, enhancing its competitive edge in AI capabilities [55][56]. - Huawei hosted a data center innovation summit, focusing on sustainable development and AI integration [57].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The solid-state battery sector is expected to reach a critical milestone for vehicle installation validation by 2027, but it must overcome three core challenges: materials, processes, and interfaces. The sulfide system faces high costs and mass production difficulties, with long-term reliability yet to be verified. The national plan aims for an energy density of 500Wh/kg by 2030, with AI technology accelerating the breakthrough of industrialization bottlenecks [21][25] - The solid-state battery is transitioning from the laboratory stage to mass production validation, with small-scale vehicle testing expected by the end of 2025 and widespread testing anticipated between 2026 and 2027. Emerging application scenarios such as low-altitude, robotics, and AI are expected to open up market space for solid-state batteries, accelerating industrialization [23] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The solid-state battery index decreased by 2.1% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, while the cumulative increase for 2025 is 48.5%. The average performance of solid-state battery-related stocks within the statistical scope was -2.2%, with all segments except aluminum-plastic film experiencing declines [4][10][11] Industry Dynamics - At the 2025 Suining International Lithium Battery Conference, experts indicated that solid-state batteries will face critical challenges in material, process, and interface technology by 2027. The sulfide system is particularly challenged by high costs and mass production difficulties [25] Company Developments - Ganfeng Lithium's subsidiary won the first prize at the "Maker China" low-altitude economy competition for its low-altitude aircraft power battery project, achieving an energy density of 320-550Wh/kg [26] - EVE Energy plans to break through solid-state battery production technology by 2026, aiming to launch a high-power, environmentally resistant, and safe solid-state battery [27] - XianDai Intelligent has achieved multiple breakthroughs in solid-state battery core processes and can provide complete solutions for sodium-ion battery manufacturing [28] - SK On has established a pilot factory for solid-state batteries, focusing on sulfide-based solid-state batteries and solid-state lithium metal batteries [30] - Panasonic aims to achieve sample shipments of solid-state batteries by 2026, accelerating the commercialization process [33]

2025 起点固态电池行业年会 暨固态电池金鼎奖颁奖典礼 首届硫化物全固态电池国际峰会议程 时间： 2025年11月8日 地点：广州 一 活动背景与意义 商业化节奏加速 : 关键节点 2026年实现规模化生产（原计划2027年），反映技术突破超预期（如电解质电导率>10 mS/cm、界面稳定性提升）。 中日技术路线趋同 : 中日企业均聚焦硫化物路线，中国 2024年专利申请量达日本三倍，但日本在基础专利仍占全球40%，显示产业化竞争白热化。 政策驱动明确 : 国内设定 2027年装车节点，企业进度普遍提前半年（如60Ah电芯2025年下线），验证政策与市场双轮驱动效应。 2、 技术商业化突破的核心价值 供应链安全重构 ： 硫化锂本土化生产可降低对日韩原材料的依赖，缓解当前 99.9%纯度产品高达200万元/吨的价格压力，推动电解质成本向100美 元/kg目标迈进。 终端应用场景拓展： 高安全性（针刺测试不起火）特性使其适用于航空、军工等特殊领域； 400Wh/kg高能量密度版本（预计2028年）将解决电动汽 车续航焦虑。 生产工艺革新： 干法电极工艺与硫化物电解质膜的集成，可减少传统液态电池涂布、注液等环节， ...