平安观点： 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 宏 2026 年 2 月 8 日 中国宏观周报（2026 年 2 月第 1 周） 二手房挂牌价恢复 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周春节临近，工业生产环比大多季节性走弱，工业品 价格指数环比回落。不过，年初以来二手房挂牌价逐步止跌，外贸港口吞 吐量及韩国、越南 1 月出口数据表现亮眼，体现外需支撑增强。 1. 工业：本周生产环比季节性走弱。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量提 升，部分化工品开工率环比提升；水泥熟料产能利用率、浮法玻璃开工率、 石油沥青开工率、钢铁建材表观需求环比回落。2）中下游方面，本周纺织 聚酯开工率、织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工率、全钢胎开工 率环比回落。 2. 地产：二手房挂牌价抬升。1）销售方面，本周（截至 2 月 6 日）30 大中 城市新房销售面积同比快速增长，去年同期基数受春节假期拖累；年初以 ...

近日，靖宇县人民法院高效化解了一起某水泥公司与某建筑公司之间的买卖合同纠纷，促成双方当场达 成调解协议并部分即时履行，实现了法律效果与社会效果的统一。 某水泥公司与某建筑公司签订买卖合同，依约供应水泥后，建筑公司却迟迟未支付货款。经双方对账确 认，建筑公司共欠水泥公司货款50万元。多次催讨无果后，水泥公司诉至靖宇法院，请求判令对方支付 欠款及相应违约金。 案件受理后，承办法官仔细查阅卷宗，认为案件事实清楚、权利义务关系明确，且双方有长期合作关 系，具备调解基础。为减轻当事人诉累，实质性解决纠纷，法官决定在开庭前组织双方进行调解。 经过近两个小时的悉心调解与沟通，双方互谅互让，最终达成一致调解意见，建筑公司当场履行了首笔 30万元的付款义务。双方当事人均对调解结果表示满意，并对法官高效、务实的工作作风给予了高度评 价。 法官提醒 买卖合同纠纷是常见的商事纠纷类型，各类经营主体在开展经济往来时，应签订规范完备的合同、保存 履约凭证等。一旦发生纠纷，应优先通过协商、调解等途径寻求解决。法院调解作为重要的纠纷解决机 制，具有程序简便、周期短、成本低、利于修复关系等独特优势，是化解商事纠纷的有效途径。 来源：靖宇县人民 ...

Primary Market - A total of 7 offshore bonds were issued by Chinese entities this week, including 6 USD bonds and 1 HKD bond, with a total issuance scale of 1.64955 billion USD [1] - The largest single issuance was 500 million USD by China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., with the highest coupon rate at 10.5% issued by China West Cement Limited [1] Secondary Market - The yield on Chinese USD bonds mostly increased this week, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD bond composite index rising by 0.14% to 252.73 [2] - The investment-grade USD bond index increased by 0.18% to 245.64, while the high-yield USD bond index decreased by 0.19% to 244.05 [2] - The real estate USD bond index fell by 0.34% to 181.23, while the city investment USD bond index rose by 0.18% to 155.1 [2] Benchmark Spread - The spread between 10-year US and Chinese government bonds narrowed to 240.4 basis points, a decrease of 2.7 basis points from the previous week [3] Rating Changes - On February 2, Fitch confirmed the long-term issuer rating of "BBB-" for Luoyang Guosheng Investment Holding Group, changing the outlook from "stable" to "negative" [5] - On February 4, Moody's assigned a first-time long-term issuer rating of "A2" to China Jianyin Investment Limited, with a "negative" outlook [5] Domestic News - The first public bond issued by the Hong Kong branch of the China Development Bank was successfully listed on MOX, totaling 5.5 billion RMB, with a 3-year bond at a coupon rate of 1.75% and a 5-year bond at 1.85% [6] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need to support the resolution of debt risks for financing platforms and to enhance financial support for key areas such as technology and green finance [7] - Since January 2026, 14 brokerages have received approval for bond issuance, totaling over 310 billion RMB [8] Offshore Bond Alerts - Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group announced a tender offer to repurchase 310 million USD of offshore bonds, with a redemption notice for all remaining bonds to be issued by February 25 [10] - Luoyang Guojin Industrial Investment Group plans to issue its first offshore bond, with a proposed amount not exceeding 200 million USD [11] - Longguang Holdings failed to repay bank loans and trust loans totaling 41.2196 billion RMB as of January 31 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, particularly focusing on price increase chains and structural economic growth [3][14]. Core Insights - The building materials sector is currently experiencing a price increase chain, with fiberglass leading the way due to a significant price rise in ordinary electronic cloth, which is expected to enhance profitability in the fiberglass sector [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Fifteen Five" plan, suggesting that March-April 2023 could see a strong start for the sector, recommending continued investment during the pre-holiday off-season [3][14]. - Key sectors to watch include electronic cloth, domestic coatings/waterproofing, domestic cement, and domestic glass, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [3][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The building materials sector is performing well, driven by price increases, particularly in fiberglass and consumer building materials, which resonate with downstream real estate data [3][14]. - The report ranks confidence in structural economic growth, external demand, and internal demand, with a focus on specific sub-sectors [3][14]. Market Performance - The building materials index decreased by 0.67% this week, with notable performances in glass manufacturing and consumer building materials [21]. - The average national cement price is reported at 342 RMB/ton, down 53 RMB/ton year-on-year, with a national average shipment rate of 24.6% [17][31]. Price Changes - The national average price for float glass is reported at 1154.49 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.69 RMB/ton [17][44]. - The report notes that the average price for electronic cloth has increased significantly, enhancing profitability expectations for the fiberglass sector [3][14]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Giant, Keda Manufacturing, and Shengfeng Cement, among others, for potential investment opportunities [3][14].

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.11%, the ChiNext down 3.28%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 4.31% [1] - Citic Securities highlights a conflict between short-term interests and long-term value in overseas markets, driven by a heightened urgency for real economy investments and the disruptive innovation brought by AI [1] - China’s capital market has already transitioned towards real economy pricing, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements, suggesting that short-term market fluctuations should not cause anxiety [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities recommends a "light position for the holiday" strategy to mitigate risks while retaining opportunities for the post-holiday spring market, particularly in a transitional phase where policy expectations have partially materialized [2] - The focus should be on two main lines: the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the emphasis on sectors with safety margins in valuations, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, cement, and financials [2] - The second line of focus includes key areas like semiconductors, AI, new energy, military, and aerospace, which are aligned with the new production capacity logic in the domestic economy [2] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the market will maintain a structurally active and oscillating pattern, with technology sectors remaining active in the short term, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and semiconductor equipment [3] - High-dividend sectors are expected to gain traction as the market transitions from high-elasticity trading to more certain configurations post-Spring Festival, with a focus on low-valuation, stable earnings, and high dividend certainty [3] Group 4 - Guojin Securities notes that the global AI industry cycle is entering a new phase, with a shift in focus towards infrastructure investments that cannot be disrupted by AI, leading to a revaluation of physical assets [4] - Recommendations include investing in physical assets like oil, copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages such as electrical equipment and engineering machinery [4] - The consumption recovery channel is expected to benefit from capital inflows, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel re-entry, particularly in aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverage sectors [4]

Core Insights - The Red Horse strategy emphasizes a diversified and sustainable income structure, focusing on future dividend growth potential rather than just current dividend levels [4][7] - The strategy combines qualitative and quantitative methods to screen for Red Horse industries and stocks, requiring healthy cash flow, good profit quality, and low capital expenditure [4][9] - The performance of the Red Horse portfolio has significantly outperformed major indices during the backtesting period, with a cumulative return of 59.41% compared to 27.03% for the CSI 300 index [9] Red Horse Industry Screening - The screening framework for Red Horse industries focuses on sectors where long-term capital expenditure trends are declining, leading to improved cash flow [7][16] - Potential Red Horse industries are identified based on moderate net profit growth rates and declining long-term averages, while excluding industries with rapidly declining recent performance [8][32] - Emerging Red Horse industries include energy metals, special steel, cement, logistics, general equipment, automotive services, and cosmetics, among others [8][32] Red Horse Stock Selection - The selection of Red Horse stocks prioritizes companies with healthy cash flows, strong profit quality, and low capital expenditures, indicating a solid financial foundation and sustainable dividend potential [9][24] - The Red Horse portfolio is divided into two categories: the Red Horse portfolio and the Red Horse preemptive portfolio, with different rebalancing dates based on earnings report disclosures [9][37] - The Red Horse preemptive portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 70% from April 15, 2025, to January 12, 2026, outperforming other major indices [9][37]

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——基金经理个人炒股合法吗？我们调查了多家头部公募，答案出人意料 （记者 胡玲） 每经AI快讯，天山股份2月6日晚间发布公告称，公司第九届第十四次董事会会议于2026年2月6日以现 场结合视频的方式召开。会议审议了《关于2026年公司及子公司向金融机构申请综合授信及贷款的议 案》等文件。 ...

每经AI快讯，西部水泥(02233.HK)再跌近10%，月内累计跌幅超22%。截至发稿，跌8.81%，报2.9港 元，成交额3.17亿港元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

消息面上，西部水泥发布公告称，发行于2029年到期本金总额3亿美元的10.5%优先票据，所得款项净 额拟连同手头现金对公司现有债务，包括根据同步提交要约或透过赎回对2026年到期4.95厘优先票据进 行回购、赎回或偿还及用作营运资金。2026年票据于2021年7月8日发行，本金总额为2亿美元。 西部水泥(02233)再跌近10%，月内累计跌幅超22%。截至发稿，跌8.81%，报2.9港元，成交额3.17亿港 元。 ...

消息面上，西部水泥发布公告称，发行于2029年到期本金总额3亿美元的10.5%优先票据，所得款项净 额拟连同手头现金对公司现有债务，包括根据同步提交要约或透过赎回对2026年到期4.95厘优先票据进 行回购、赎回或偿还及用作营运资金。2026年票据于2021年7月8日发行，本金总额为2亿美元。 智通财经APP获悉，西部水泥(02233)再跌近10%，月内累计跌幅超22%。截至发稿，跌8.81%，报2.9港 元，成交额3.17亿港元。 ...