1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Steel prices have strengthened again, with clear support levels for rebar and hot-rolled coils. Social inventory has increased significantly in the past two weeks due to positive arbitrage by futures-spot traders. Steel mills have few overstocked products as inventory has shifted from mills to traders. There are expectations of production restrictions in mid-to-late August. Short-term inventory pressure is not high, but off-season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the rollover period, and the price of the October contract may fluctuate at high levels. It is advisable to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile upward trend. Globally, iron ore shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have decreased. On the demand side, steel mills' profit margins are at a relatively high level, with a slight increase in maintenance volume and a slight decline in molten iron production, which remains at around 240,000 tons per day. Steel exports remain strong, maintaining short-term resilience in molten iron production. Terminal demand shows strong performance during the off-season but weakens month-on-month. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventory has increased month-on-month. It is expected that molten iron production in August will remain high, with an average daily output of around 236,000 tons. Steel mills' improving profits support raw materials. There are also new supply-side policy expectations and production restriction expectations for Hebei steel mills before the September 3rd parade. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal futures showed a volatile upward trend, with intense price fluctuations recently. Spot auction prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and Mongolian coal prices are stable with an increase. The fifth round of coke price increases has been officially implemented, and the sixth round of price increases has been initiated. On the supply side, coal mine production has decreased month-on-month, and the market remains in short supply. Imported coal prices have rebounded this week after falling last week, and downstream users continue to replenish their inventories. On the demand side, coking plant operations are stable, and the high-level molten iron production of blast furnaces has slightly declined, with continuous downstream replenishment demand. It is expected that molten iron production in August will continue to decline slightly. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventory continues to decrease, port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mill inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices have increased, with different price levels and changes in different regions and contracts. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China is 3,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs has changed, and the profit of steel products has generally decreased. For example, the profit of East China hot-rolled coils has decreased by 23 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron production has slightly decreased, while the production of five major steel products has increased. Rebar production has increased significantly, with a 4.8% increase, and hot-rolled coil production has decreased by 2.4% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has increased by 1.7%, the rebar inventory has increased by 1.9%, and the hot-rolled coil inventory has increased by 2.5% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume has decreased by 3.5%, the apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar has increased by 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has decreased by 4.3% [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have increased, and the basis of the 09 contract has changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder has increased by 8.8 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract of PB powder has increased by 2.3 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrivals at 45 ports have decreased by 5.0%, and the global weekly shipments have decreased by 0.5%. The monthly national import volume has increased by 8.0% [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.2%, the weekly average daily port clearance volume has increased by 6.3%, the monthly national pig iron production has decreased by 3.0%, and the monthly national crude steel production has decreased by 3.9% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45-port inventory has decreased by 0.2%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has increased by 0.0%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills have decreased by 4.8% [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures have increased, and the basis and spreads have changed. For example, the 09 contract of coking coal has increased by 37 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal has changed from -158 to -150 [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of coke has increased slightly, and the production of sample coal mines has decreased. For example, the daily average production of all-sample coking plants has increased by 0.3% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly molten iron production of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.2%, and the demand for coke remains supported [7]. - **Inventory**: Coke inventory has generally decreased, and coking coal inventory has changed differently. For example, the total coke inventory has decreased by 0.9%, and the coking coal inventory of all-sample coking plants has decreased by 0.5% [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Black night trading weakened. In the short - term, steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the position transfer. It is expected that the high price will fluctuate. Previously, it was recommended to buy on dips, and current long positions can be held. Be cautious about chasing long positions due to limited release of terminal demand [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3370 to 3360 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased from 3470 to 3460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.2 to 240.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.8 to 869.2 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The rebar output increased by 10.1 to 221.2 tons, an increase of 4.8%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 7.9 to 314.9 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7 tons, an increase of 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6 tons, an increase of 2.5% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.9 to 9.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 845.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 7.4 to 210.8 tons, an increase of 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 13.8 to 306.2 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Last week, the 2509 iron ore contract showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. In the future, the pig iron output in August will remain high, but is expected to decrease slightly to around 236 tons per day on average. Unilateral trading is recommended to buy the 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased from 800.0 to 792.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.5 to - 37.0, an increase of 8.6% [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 267.3 to 2507.8 tons, an increase of 11.9%, and the global shipment volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8 tons, a decrease of 4.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 tons, an increase of 8.0% [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 19.1 to 321.9 tons, an increase of 6.3%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5 tons, a decrease of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4 tons, a decrease of 3.9% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.7 to 13712.27 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 to 9013.3 tons, an increase of 0.0%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Last week, coke and coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. There is still a possibility of further price increases for coke. For both coke and coking coal, the speculative strategy is to buy the 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to do 9 - 1 reverse spreads [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1347 yuan/ton. The coke 09 contract decreased by 14 to 1668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The coking profit of Steel Union decreased by 11 to - 54 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 5 to 1139 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 18 to 1070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6%. The sample coal mine profit increased by 22 to 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.34% [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8 tons, a decrease of 0.44%. The raw coal output decreased by 9.7 to 859.0 tons, a decrease of 1.1%, and the clean coal output decreased by 5.1 to 439.0 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1 tons, an increase of 0.4%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8 tons, a decrease of 0.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 to 907.2 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 6.7 to 112.0 tons, a decrease of 5.7%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 to 987.9 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [6].

1. Overall Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an industry - wide investment rating. 2. Core Views Steel - The black futures market weakened recently. In the short - term, the steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has a low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the roll - over period, and the price of the October contract is expected to fluctuate at high levels. It was previously recommended to buy on dips, and existing long positions can be held. However, due to limited terminal demand, chasing long positions should be done with caution [1]. Iron Ore - The 2509 iron ore contract showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend last week. In the future, the average daily hot metal production in August will remain high but is expected to slightly decline to around 2.36 million tons per day. Steel prices may rise due to production restrictions, which will reduce iron ore demand but provide valuation support. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. Coke - The coke futures rebounded from the bottom last week, and the price fluctuated sharply. The fifth round of price increase has been implemented, and there may be further increases. Supply is difficult to increase due to some enterprises' losses, while demand from blast furnaces provides support. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coke contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rebounded from the bottom last week, and the spot market is generally stable and slightly stronger. The supply is tight, and the demand for replenishment from downstream is continuous. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3370 yuan/ton to 3360 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coil declined from 3460 yuan/ton to 3449 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel - making processes increased, such as the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar rising by 6 yuan/ton to 3175 yuan/ton. The profits of most regions and varieties increased, like the East China hot - rolled coil profit rising by 5 yuan/ton to 248 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The average daily hot metal production decreased slightly by 0.2 tons to 240.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The production of five major steel products increased by 1.8 tons to 869.2 tons, a rise of 0.2%. The rebar production increased significantly by 10.1 tons to 221.2 tons, a growth of 4.8%, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 7.9 tons to 314.9 tons, a decline of 2.4% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 tons to 1375.4 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The rebar inventory rose by 10.4 tons to 556.7 tons, a growth of 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 tons to 356.6 tons, a rise of 2.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The average daily building materials trading volume decreased by 0.9 tons to 9.7 tons, a decline of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 tons to 845.7 tons, a drop of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 7.4 tons to 210.8 tons, a growth of 3.6%, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 13.8 tons to 306.2 tons, a decline of 4.3% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder dropped from 819.5 yuan/ton to 816.2 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port declined from 773.0 yuan/ton to 770.0 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 267.3 tons to 2507.8 tons, a rise of 11.9%, while the global shipment volume decreased by 139.1 tons to 3061.8 tons, a decline of 4.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 tons to 10594.8 tons, a growth of 8.0% [4]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 tons to 240.3 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The 45 - port average daily desulfurization volume increased by 19.1 tons to 321.9 tons, a rise of 6.3%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 220.9 tons to 7190.5 tons, a decline of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 336.1 tons to 8318.4 tons, a decline of 3.9% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.7 tons to 13712.27 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 tons to 9013.3 tons, a rise of 0.0%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days, a decline of 4.8% [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of most coke varieties were stable or slightly decreased. For example, the 09 contract price of coke decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1668 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1734 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The average daily coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 tons to 65.1 tons, a rise of 0.4%, while the average daily production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 tons to 46.8 tons, a decline of 0.44% [6]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 tons to 240.3 tons, a decline of 0.2% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 tons to 907.2 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 3.9 tons to 69.7 tons, a decline of 5.34%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 7.4 tons to 619.3 tons [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of most coking coal varieties were stable or slightly increased. For example, the price of Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipt increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1139 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 1070 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The raw coal production of sample coal mines decreased by 9.7 tons to 859.0 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and the clean coal production decreased by 5.1 tons to 439.0 tons, a decline of 1.1% [6]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is supported by the stable coking plant operation and the high - level but slightly declining hot metal production [6]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 6.8 tons to 112.0 tons, a decline of 5.7%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 tons to 987.9 tons, a decline of 0.5%, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.9 tons to 808.7 tons, a rise of 0.6% [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index, which has shown significant growth over various time frames, indicating a positive trend in the energy sector [1][3] - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index has increased by 7.72% in the past month, 16.91% in the past three months, and 5.04% year-to-date [1] - The index is composed entirely of securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a base date of December 31, 2004, set at 1000.0 points [1] Group 2 - The composition of the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index includes 41.24% in fuel refining, 32.35% in integrated oil and gas companies, 24.10% in coal, 1.57% in oilfield services, and 0.74% in coke [1] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2] - Adjustments to the index samples occur in response to special events affecting sample companies, such as mergers or changes in industry classification [2]

Core Viewpoint - The high dividend sectors in the Hong Kong stock market have long-term investment value under the current liquidity easing environment, driven by stable earnings in banks and improved supply-demand dynamics in midstream material industries [1] Group 1: High Dividend Sectors - High dividend stocks continue to attract low-cost capital inflows due to declining non-standard investment returns [1] - The banking sector maintains stable profitability and dividend levels, contributing to the attractiveness of high dividend stocks [1] - The PPI stabilization expectations enhance the profitability recovery of companies in the midstream materials sector, such as coke and rebar [1] Group 2: Insurance Sector - The insurance sector shows a strong trend towards concentration among leading companies, with improved performance certainty driven by long-cycle assessments and interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914), which selects 30 liquid stocks with high dividend yields [1] - The index primarily covers traditional high dividend sectors such as banking, ports, and highways, while also including industrial metals and telecom operators [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF linked A (022274) and C (022275) [1]

黑色建材日报 2025-08-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3231 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。当日注册仓单 93491 吨, 环 比增加 4235 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.8167 万手，环比减少 24402 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3440 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 70915 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 142.8587 万手，环比减少 31588 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3470 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability, with a recommendation to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆★, implying a certain bullish trend [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, suggesting a certain bullish trend [1] Core Views - The overall steel market has complex supply - demand relationships. With the "anti - involution" influencing the trading floor, the market sentiment is cautious after sharp fluctuations [2] - Iron ore is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term due to factors such as supply recovery, stable demand, and macro uncertainties [2] - Coke is expected to rise in the short term, with its price being significantly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [3] - Coking coal is likely to see continued destocking in the short term, with high volatility and limited downside space, and caution is advised when chasing up [5] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: This week, apparent demand and production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The overall market sentiment is cautious after sharp fluctuations, and the trading floor is mainly influenced by the "anti - involution" [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Demand dropped significantly, production declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. The overall demand in the downstream industries is weak, and the trading floor is affected by the overall commodity market trend [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are expected to increase seasonally in August, domestic arrivals have increased month - on - month, and port inventories have stabilized with no obvious pressure to accumulate in the short term [2] - Demand: Terminal demand is weak due to weather, but steel mills have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the demand for iron ore replenishment still exists. Future policy - driven production cuts need to be monitored [2] - Macro: There are still uncertainties in overseas trade, and the bullish sentiment from domestic "anti - involution" has cooled down. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level consolidation [2] Coke - Supply: The sixth round of price increase is pending, production has slightly decreased, and overall inventory has continued to decline slightly [3] - Demand: Downstream molten iron production remains high during the off - season, and traders have good purchasing intentions [3] - Market: The price is significantly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and it is expected to rise in the short term with high volatility [3] Coking Coal - Supply: Production has slightly increased, the spot auction market has improved, and overall inventory has decreased month - on - month, with production - end inventory dropping significantly [5] - Demand: Downstream molten iron production remains high during the off - season [5] - Market: The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with high volatility and limited downside space in the short term. Caution is needed when chasing up [5] Silicon Manganese - Supply: Weekly production has been increasing, but the rate is lower than expected. Manganese ore prices have slightly increased this week, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [6] - Demand: Molten iron production remains above 240, and the demand is relatively high. In July, supply exceeded demand, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline [6] - Market: The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [6] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply has slightly increased, and the market trading volume is average, with on - balance - sheet inventory slightly increasing [7] - Demand: Molten iron production has slightly decreased but remains above 240. Export demand is around 30,000 tons, and the secondary demand has slightly declined. Overall demand is acceptable [7] - Market: The price follows the trend of silicon manganese and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [7]

从资金流向上来看，当日焦炭板块主力资金净流出4713.26万元，游资资金净流出902.33万元，散户资金 净流入5615.58万元。焦炭板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，8月7日焦炭板块较上一交易日下跌0.96%，安泰集团领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3639.67，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于11157.94，下跌0.18%。焦炭板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600792 | 云煤能源 | 3.87 | -0.51% | 19.52万 | > 7507.55万 | | 600725 | 云维股份 | 3.29 | -0.60% | 10.92万 | 3585.99万 | | 000723 | 美锦能源 | 4.61 | -0.65% | 41.50万 | 1.91亿 | | 601011 | 宝泰隆 | 2.76 | -0.72% | 25.42万 | 6997.75万 | | 600740 | 山西焦化 | 4.05 | -0.98% | 23.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - In the short term, as the anti - involution sentiment cools down, the pricing logic of coking coal and coke returns to fundamentals. The supply of coking coal is affected by the "over - production inspection" policy and pre - parade restrictions in September, while the cost support for coke remains. On the demand side, steel mills have high profits and no production cuts, with rigid demand remaining high. For coking coal, the price is expected to run in a wide and strong range of 1030 - 1300. For coke, the price is expected to run in a wide and volatile range of 1600 - 1800 [5][83] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Frequent market news amplifies market sentiment. Policies such as the coal production inspection notice issued by the National Energy Administration in 2025 and the "276 - workday production plan" of Wanjie Coal Industry have affected the market [8][9] - **Coal Supply**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal increased year - on - year, but the daily output of sample mines decreased month - on - month. Although coal mine profits have improved and there is a possibility of increased production, the impact of the "over - production inspection" policy and pre - parade restrictions needs to be continuously monitored [10] - **Coking Coal Imports and Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal decreased year - on - year but increased slightly month - on - month. The import volume of Mongolian, Australian, Russian, and Canadian coking coal all increased marginally [16] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of sample mines and ports decreased, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises increased. The inventory has shifted downward, and the coking coal price is supported [26] - **Coke Supply**: From January to June 2025, the coke output increased year - on - year. As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of independent coking enterprises remained flat, while that of steel enterprises decreased slightly. Affected by the rising price of coking coal, the profit of coking enterprises has shrunk, and the market supply has tightened marginally [35] - **Coke Imports and Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of coke decreased year - on - year. Global economic slowdown and other factors suppress the export demand for coke, but the impact on the domestic market is small [44] - **Coke Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total coke inventory decreased, with the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreasing significantly, that of steel enterprises decreasing slightly, and that of ports increasing. The inventory has shifted downstream, and the market has shifted to on - demand procurement [47] - **Iron Element Demand**: As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of molten iron by steel enterprises remained high, and the consumption of five major steel products was at a low level in recent years. The inventory of five major steel products was in the process of destocking. Although some steel mills had short - term maintenance, the overall production willingness of steel mills did not decline significantly [56] - **Iron Element Terminal Demand**: From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased year - on - year, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment increasing and real estate development investment decreasing. High - temperature and rainy weather and weak capital improvement restricted the recovery of demand. The apparent demand for rebar in August is expected to decline [64] - **Basis and Term Structure**: Recently, the coking coal and coke futures have fluctuated at low levels. The basis of coking coal and coke has fallen from high levels. For both, the contango structure has steepened, and cross - month arbitrage can conduct reverse arbitrage. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage entry opportunities when the basis strengthens [74]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].