2025年，中国金融贷款领域欺诈乱象蔓延，黑产手法加速迭代，已形成专业化、产业化、分工精细的黑色产业链 条，给金融机构带来严峻挑战。尽管监管与风控力度持续加强，但黑灰产在利益驱动下不断翻新手段，反欺诈攻 防进入体系化对抗新阶段。 2025年金融恶意欺诈舆情较2024年增长200%，监控捕获金融贷款舆情达680万条，其中恶意贷款欺诈舆情189万 条，占比28%。恶意贷款欺诈业务类型热度前三为企业贷、信用贷、房贷，公积金贷和购车贷款风险热度也较 高；主要欺诈类型以职业背债为首，占比37%，债务优化、征信修复紧随其后。风险地区分布上，省份层面广 东、四川、山东、江苏、浙江位居前五，城市层面重庆、广州、成都等表现突出。值得关注的是，2025年征信修 复风险急剧激增，下半年较2024年下半年同比涨幅达199%，年底相关政策出台后引发各方高度关注。 报告共计：36页 2025年中国信贷欺诈风险趋势报告总结 今天分享的是：2025年中国信贷欺诈风险趋势年度研究报告-威胁猎人 以情报构筑数字化安全基石 信贷欺诈产业链已形成上游、中游、下游分工明确的精细化体系，上游负责研究漏洞、提供方案与假材料，中游 对接资源、协助实施，下游 ...

本轮金价上涨的核心逻辑已超越传统通胀对冲范畴，转向对全球货币体系稳定性的深度反思。东方金诚 《黄金周报（2026.1.12–2026.1.18）》指出，多位拥有2026年FOMC投票权的美联储官员近期密集发 声，强调"央行独立性是物价稳定的基石"。费城联储主席保尔森表示，降息决策应基于经济数据而非外 部压力；明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利则直言，无论谁担任下一任主席，美联储都必须坚持集体决策 机制以抵御外界干预。 这些表态被市场解读为对特朗普政府要求大幅降息的回应。当货币政策可信度受损时，黄金作为非主权 信用资产的吸引力自然提升。与此同时，地缘政治风险急剧上升。 报告提到，特朗普政府宣布对丹麦等欧洲八国加征关税，直至达成收购格陵兰岛协议。欧洲国家开始向 格陵兰岛派遣军事人员，丹麦及其盟友也筹备联合军演。尽管未引发直接冲突，但地缘紧张局势显著推 高地缘风险溢价，促使资本流向黄金等安全资产。 作者 胡群 1月20日，国际现货黄金价格首次突破每盎司4700美元，创下历史新高。今年以来，金价接连跨越 4500、4600及4700美元三大关键心理关口，国内主流金饰品牌足金报价同步攀升至每克1450元以上。 这一波动背后， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing regulatory tightening in the financial markets, highlighting the recent actions taken by platforms like Xueqiu to curb excessive speculation and promote responsible trading practices [1][18]. Group 1: Regulatory Environment - Xueqiu has issued multiple notices, resulting in the suspension of 22 accounts, as part of its efforts to combat excessive speculation and practices such as "retail investor strategies" and "team trading" [1]. - The article suggests a shift in market sentiment towards a more performance-driven approach, especially as companies prepare for annual report forecasts [18]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article notes a significant shift in capital flow towards cyclical sectors such as real estate, building materials, consumer goods, and chemicals, indicating a potential recovery in these areas [18]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to maintain necessary levels of deficit and debt, ensuring that overall spending increases, particularly in key sectors [19][20]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The economic recovery is projected to continue into 2026, with consumption being the primary driver of growth, supported by potential monetary policy easing [8]. - Financial assets are anticipated to surpass residential assets by 2026, driven by increases in deposits, non-deposit financial investments, and stock market valuations [24][27]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The chemical industry is expected to see a reversal in supply-demand dynamics by 2026, with recent price increases in key chemicals indicating a potential recovery [30]. - The building materials sector is currently viewed as a critical area for investment, with expectations of growth driven by macroeconomic improvements and increased demand [31]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The article highlights specific sectors and companies that are likely to benefit from the current market conditions, including consumer goods and chemicals, which are showing signs of resilience and growth potential [30][31]. - The performance of stocks in the AI and semiconductor sectors is also noted, with companies like MiniMax and others in the semiconductor space gaining attention due to their innovative products and market positioning [10][37].

记者｜叶麦穗 编辑｜杨希 黄金、白银势不可挡！ 1月20日，黄金、白银价格再度刷新历史新高。截至17时30分，现货黄金涨1.39%，报4734.096美元/盎 司。现货白银报95.241美元/盎司，日内上涨0.89%，年内累计涨幅超过33%。 目前白银的走势已经超过市场大部分分析师的认知，有知名机构因为做空白银，导致单笔交易损失60.6 万美元（约合人民币421.7万元）。 此前花旗预计黄金和白银的抛售规模都将在70亿美元左右，具体而言，黄金的资产管理规模AUM为338 亿美元，目标为270亿美元，白银资产管理规模AUM为129亿美元，目标60亿美元。 摩根大通在2025年12月对此次抛售规模进行了量化测算，认为白银将承受最沉重的抛售压力，该机构特 别强调，2026年白银面临的抛售压力比2025年更为显著；而黄金的抛售规模预计约占其期货市场未平仓 合约总量的3%。 不过加利认为，这些新建立的多头头寸目前较为脆弱，但在没有出现被迫抛售的情况下，市场可能需要 一个心理或技术层面的转折点才会开始平仓。 | < w | 贵金属 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅▶ | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of Shanghai as an international financial center has transitioned from a "scale expansion" phase to a "functional upgrade" phase, with a focus on enhancing its competitiveness and influence in the global financial landscape [1][7]. Group 1: Strategic Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the establishment of a global RMB asset allocation center and risk management center, highlighting the importance of deepening the interconnection between domestic and international financial markets [1][2]. - The plan includes the establishment of the Shanghai International Financial Asset Trading Platform to enrich RMB-denominated financial products and promote RMB internationalization [1][2]. Group 2: Institutional and Functional Enhancements - A key focus is on deepening institutional openness to enhance internationalization, addressing the current bottleneck of insufficient international functions [2][4]. - The plan proposes optimizing the offshore account system and promoting offshore credit and free trade offshore bond development, requiring pilot offshore financial special laws to stabilize market expectations [2][4]. Group 3: Financial Technology and Innovation - The plan prioritizes strengthening the core position of financial technology, with a focus on developing fintech and green finance, and exploring flexible regulatory sandbox mechanisms [3][5]. - It aims to integrate financial services with technology enterprises, providing comprehensive financial services throughout their lifecycle [3][5]. Group 4: Collaborative Development of the "Five Centers" - The "Five Centers" (financial, trade, shipping, technology, and cultural) need to work synergistically to break down functional barriers and achieve collaborative effects [5][6]. - The plan emphasizes the need for policy coordination and resource sharing to enhance the scale of technology finance and guide capital towards cutting-edge fields like AI and biomedicine [5][6]. Group 5: Global Resource Allocation and Risk Management - Shanghai aims to shift from scale expansion to functional upgrades, enhancing its pricing power and rule-making authority in global markets [6][7]. - The plan includes building a robust risk prevention system, utilizing technologies like blockchain for financial risk identification and management [6][7].

【导读】"股份回购+大摩唱多"，泡泡玛特逆市大涨超9%！恒瑞医药（600276）新药临床试验获批 1月20日，港股延续调整态势，恒生指数收盘跌0.29%，报26487.51点；恒生科技指数跌1.16%，报5683.44点；恒生中国企业指数跌0.43%，报9094.76点。 大市全日成交2377.7亿港元，高于上一交易日的2256.9亿港元。 恒生指数成份股中44只上涨，41只下跌，其中，药明康德（603259）跌4.13%，比亚迪（002594）股份跌3.67%，舜宇光学科技跌3.25%。 涨幅方面，泡泡玛特涨9.07%，中国人寿（601628）涨4.31%，华润置地涨3.71%，领涨蓝筹。 成交额突出个股方面，腾讯控股成交额达146.38亿港元，跌1.48%；阿里巴巴成交额为88.68亿港元，跌0.44%；小米集团成交额为80.45亿港元，跌2.74%， 公司于1月19日回购400万股，回购金额1.46亿港元，但整体市场流动性紧张拖累股价表现。 港股其他涨跌幅较大个股有：易通讯集团涨112.3%，获折让约15.08%提现金要约，控股权易主，成交额达842.73万港元；CMON涨30.2%，公司拟按每股 0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices, with silver's performance exceeding market expectations, leading to substantial losses for short-sellers like TD Securities [1][3]. Group 1: Current Market Performance - As of January 20, gold reached $4734.096 per ounce, up 1.39%, while silver was priced at $95.241 per ounce, up 0.89%, with a year-to-date increase of over 33% [1][2]. - TD Securities faced a loss of $606,000 from a short position in silver, marking their second significant loss due to shorting silver in recent months [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The Bloomberg Commodity Index's rebalancing has been fully absorbed by the market, with new long positions emerging that offset approximately $7.5 billion in outflows [3][4]. - Analysts predict that silver will face significant selling pressure in 2026, with estimates suggesting a $7 billion sell-off, while gold's sell-off is expected to be around $2.1 billion [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite recent losses, TD Securities maintains that the silver market is overbought, with potential catalysts for a market correction, such as changes in import tariffs on silver [5]. - Analysts from various institutions express optimism for silver's long-term prospects, citing its dual role as a financial and industrial asset, with potential price targets reaching $100 per ounce [8][9]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch a new 100-ounce silver futures contract in February 2026 to meet growing retail demand, enhancing market accessibility [10][11].

每经AI快讯，中粮资本1月20日晚间发布公告称，公司第六届第六次董事会会议于2026年1月20日在北 京以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于公司控股子公司中英人寿发行资本补充债券的议案》等文件。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"一周干完一年的活"，一款AI编程工具让硅谷程序员集体"上瘾"！科技公 司CEO：一辈子钻研的技能被它一次性解决，让人兴奋又恐惧 （记者 王瀚黎） ...

1月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，1年期LPR报3.0%，5年期以上LPR报 3.5%，均与上月持平。至此，LPR已自2025年6月起连续8个月保持稳定。东方金诚王青团队认为，这一 结果符合预期，短期内货币政策将以观察为主，但二季度伴随外部环境变化，政策性降息并引导LPR下 调的可能性显著增加。 对于1月LPR报价保持不变的原因，东方金诚王青团队分析认为主要有两方面直接因素。首先，政策利 率的稳定是核心前提。年初以来，央行7天期逆回购利率保持平稳，这直接决定了LPR报价的定价基础 未发生改变。其次，商业银行的定价动力不足。尽管市场利率如1年期AAA级银行同业存单到期收益率 保持稳定，银行在货币市场的融资成本变化不大，但在当前商业银行净息差处于历史最低点的背景下， 报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 从更深层次来看，LPR的持续稳定反映了2025年我国宏观经济展现出的较强韧性。出口持续偏强、以高 技术制造业为代表的新质生产力快速发展，成功支撑经济顶住外部波动压力，顺利完成全年增长目标。 这使得下半年货币政策具备了较强的定力，无需通过频繁调整LPR来调节总需求。 尽管2025年四季度受 ...

责任编辑：秦艺 1月20日金融一线消息，自然资源部、住房城乡建设部发布关于进一步支持城市更新行动若干措施的通 知。通知提到，健全多元化投融资方式。加大中央预算内投资等支持力度，通过超长期特别国债对符合 条件的项目给予支持。中央财政要支持实施城市更新行动。地方政府要加大财政投入，推进相关资金整 合和统筹使用，在债务风险可控前提下，通过发行地方政府专项债券对符合条件的城市更新项目予以支 持，严禁违法违规举债融资。落实城市更新相关税费减免政策。鼓励各类金融机构在依法合规、风险可 控、商业可持续的前提下积极参与城市更新，强化信贷支持。完善市场化投融资模式，吸引社会资本参 与城市更新，推动符合条件的项目发行基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs）、资产证券化产 品、公司信用类债券等。 1月20日金融一线消息，自然资源部、住房城乡建设部发布关于进一步支持城市更新行动若干措施的通 知。通知提到，健全多元化投融资方式。加大中央预算内投资等支持力度，通过超长期特别国债对符合 条件的项目给予支持。中央财政要支持实施城市更新行动。地方政府要加大财政投入，推进相关资金整 合和统筹使用，在债务风险可控前提下，通过发行地方政府专项债 ...