Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton lacks fundamental upward drivers and is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations until there are new weather problems in US cotton - growing areas or significant changes in US trade agreements [4][16] - Domestic cotton futures follow the overall financial market sentiment. Concerns about tightening domestic cotton inventories drive the basis stronger, but if the downstream business situation deteriorates, the de - stocking momentum may slow, and the basis may not continue to rise. Cotton futures are also expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [1][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 65.16, reached a high of 66.70, a low of 64.71, and closed at 65.58, up 0.49 (0.75%). The trading volume was 131,983 lots, an increase of 48,661 lots, and the open interest was 111,792 lots, an increase of 543 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 13,305, reached a high of 13,395, a low of 13,200, and closed at 13,360, up 85 (0.64%). The trading volume was 678,385 lots, a decrease of 189,744 lots, and the open interest was 530,650 lots, a decrease of 15,282 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 19,555, reached a high of 19,690, a low of 19,415, and closed at 19,630, up 105 (0.54%). The trading volume was 19,681 lots, a decrease of 14,623 lots, and the open interest was 12,592 lots, an increase of 7,506 lots [4] 2. 基本面 2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE cotton trend**: This week, it fluctuated within a narrow range with a weak overall trend. It once rebounded by over 2% on Monday due to a weaker US dollar and a sharp rise in crude oil prices but failed to sustain the upward momentum. Favorable weather in US cotton - growing areas is conducive to catching up with the sowing progress, causing it to fall again [4] - **US cotton weekly export sales data**: As of the week ending May 29, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 24,900 tons, a 7% weekly decrease and a 2% decrease from the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts were 303,200 tons, a 25% year - on - year decline. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 71,700 tons, a 15% month - on - month increase and a 1% increase from the four - week average [5] - **Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries**: - India: Sowing in northern India is going smoothly. The domestic market price shows a differentiated trend. About 80% - 85% of the estimated sowing area in northern India has been completed, and it is expected to finish all sowing by June 10 [6] - Brazil: The domestic textile industry has grown. The 2025 season's lint output in Mato Grosso is expected to reach a record high of 2.76 million tons. From January to April 2025, Brazilian textile production increased by 13.7% year - on - year, and the industry added 8,000 jobs [6] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is low. The sowing progress in Sindh is far behind last year. The national cotton planting area is expected to reach 95% of last year's, with a preliminary estimated output of 6.5 - 7.5 million bales. The domestic market trading has slowed down, and import demand remains low [7] - Bangladesh: There are some positive news in energy and government budgets. Due to the approaching Eid al - Fitr holiday, textile enterprises' procurement pace has slowed down. The energy supply problem of textile enterprises may be alleviated, and the government has announced the next fiscal year's budget [8] - Australia: The 2024/25 lint output forecast has been raised to 1.2 million tons, an 11.1% increase from the previous forecast and about a 12% increase from the 2023/24 season [9] - **Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates**: As of the week ending June 6, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 74%, Vietnam's was 65%, and Pakistan's was 33.5% [9] 2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Zhengzhou cotton futures and basis**: From May 30, domestic cotton futures and spot prices first fell and then rose. The spot trading was relatively light, but there were large local trading volumes. Some textile enterprises and traders continued to lock in cotton spot purchases. The cotton spot sales basis showed a stable - to - strong trend [10] - **Cotton warehouse receipts**: As of June 6, there were 10,870 registered warehouse receipts and 371 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 11,241 receipts, equivalent to 472,122 tons [10] - **Downstream market**: - Cotton yarn market: The market continued to be weak, with light trading. Weaving yarn performed better than knitting yarn. Cotton yarn prices continued to decline slightly, and spinning enterprises' profits continued to deteriorate. Spinning enterprise inventories continued to accumulate, and the startup rate decreased [11] - Cotton fabric market: The off - season atmosphere continued. After the Dragon Boat Festival, weavers' production enthusiasm was low, and production was controlled. The startup rate continued to decline, and subsequent orders were weak, with inventory rising [11] 3. 基础数据图表 - The report provides 14 charts, including those related to Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton inventory, etc., but no specific data analysis in the text [13][14][15] 4. 操作建议 - ICE cotton is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations until there are new factors. Domestic cotton futures are also expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, and the stability of cotton demand is based on low cotton prices [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton provide limited driving force, and it is expected to operate slightly weaker within a range. In the international market, due to continuous macro - disturbances and limited fundamental driving forces, ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating performance. In the domestic market, terminal demand is a major factor affecting cotton prices, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price is expected to operate slightly weaker within a range in the short term [4][11][12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Global Production Forecast**: The USDA May report predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season will be 25.651 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 710,000 tons or 2.7%. China's production is expected to be 6.314 million tons, a decrease of 653,000 tons or 9.4%, but the market believes the USDA underestimates it. Brazil's production is estimated at 3.974 million tons, a 7.4% increase; the US production is expected to be 3.157 million tons, a 0.6% increase; Australia's production is expected to be 893,000 tons, a 26.8% decrease [6][38]. - **US Drought Impact**: The area affected by drought in the US is gradually decreasing. As of May 20, 2025, the US drought - affected area accounted for 31.65% (D1 - D4 level), a month - on - month decrease of 1.60 percentage points [42][45]. - **US Planting Progress**: As of May 25, 2025, the US cotton planting progress was 52%, 4 percentage points lower than the five - year average [50]. - **China's Planting Area**: China's new cotton planting area in Xinjiang may increase slightly year - on - year, and China's cotton is still likely to have a good harvest this year [12]. - **China's Pima Cotton Sales**: As of May 22, 2025, China's cotton sales volume was 5.546 million tons, and the sales rate was 83.10%, both higher than the same period in previous years [56]. Demand - **Global Consumption Forecast**: The USDA May report predicts that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 304,000 tons or 1.2%. China's consumption is expected to be 7.947 million tons, a decrease of 109,000 tons [7][57]. - **US Retail Sales**: In April 2025, the US clothing and clothing accessories retail sales were $25.837 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [60]. - **Overseas Textile Enterprises' Operating Rates**: As of May 30, 2025, Vietnam's textile enterprises' operating rate was 65%, a week - on - week decrease of 1 percentage point; India's was 75%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; Pakistan's was 58.5%, remaining flat [63]. - **China's Retail Sales**: In April 2025, China's clothing, footwear, and textile products retail sales were 108.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; from January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The growth rate was lower than that of social retail sales [7][66]. - **Yarn and Grey Cloth Operating Loads**: As of May 30, 2025, the yarn comprehensive operating load was 55.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48 percentage points; the pure - cotton yarn mill load was 54.08%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.22 percentage points; the all - cotton grey cloth load was 49.52%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points [7][67][70]. Import and Export - **Global Import Forecast**: The global cotton import volume in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 9.759 million tons, an increase of 510,000 tons year - on - year. China's import volume is expected to be 1.524 million tons, an increase of 218,000 tons [8][71]. - **China's Textile and Clothing Exports**: In April 2025, China's textile yarn, fabric, and related product export value was $12.58 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; from January to April, the cumulative export value was $45.848 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The clothing and clothing accessories export value was $11.607 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17%; from January to April, the cumulative export was $44.62 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5% [8][81]. - **China's Cotton Imports**: In April 2025, China imported 60,000 tons of cotton, at a low level in recent years [83]. - **China's Cotton Yarn Imports**: In April 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton yarn, a slight month - on - month decrease [88]. Inventory - **US Retail and Wholesaler Inventories**: In March 2025, the US clothing and clothing accessories retail inventory was $58.329 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. The wholesaler inventory was $27.813 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46% [101]. - **Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventories**: As of May 30, 2025, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.74 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 days; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.92 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 days [102]. - **Spinning Enterprises' Inventories**: As of May 30, 2025, the spinning enterprises' cotton inventory was 33.42 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days; the cotton yarn inventory was 20.5 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.68 days [104]. - **Weaving Mills' Inventories**: As of May 30, 2025, the weaving mills' cotton yarn inventory was 8.02 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78 days; the all - cotton grey cloth inventory was 33.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 days [105]. - **China's Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of mid - May 2025, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.834 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 318,600 tons, at a low level in recent years [9]. Options - **Cotton Option Volatility**: The historical volatility of cotton options decreased month - on - month [114].

Core Viewpoint - Recent rebound in cotton prices is primarily influenced by substantial progress in high-level economic talks between China and the U.S., although macroeconomic uncertainties and favorable weather conditions for the new crop year may limit the extent of price increases [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Factors - The high-level economic talks on May 10-11 resulted in significant tariff reductions, boosting market sentiment and leading to a rebound in cotton prices [1] - G7 finance ministers discussed imposing tariffs on small packages from China, with China's apparel exports to G7 countries (excluding the U.S.) accounting for 19.2% of total exports, which could significantly impact cotton demand [1][2] Group 2: Market Demand - Downstream enterprises reported a surge in shipments to the U.S. following the tariff reductions, but the overall demand remains weak due to several factors, including previous stockpiling and the cancellation of the small package tax exemption [2] - The 24% tariff suspension is temporary (90 days), creating uncertainty in global trade dynamics, which makes enterprises cautious about new orders [2] Group 3: Production Outlook - New cotton planting is nearly complete, with initial weather conditions being favorable, leading to optimistic expectations for increased production in Xinjiang [2] - The cotton production in Xinjiang is projected to reach a ten-year high, which may exert strong upward pressure on prices and limit the current rebound [2][3]

在村民努尔海的600亩棉田，智能化植保设备正在进行叶面喷施作业。"技术人员提前两周就来讲解病 虫害防治方案，现在每天能处理600亩地，比人工效率提升10倍。"努尔海坦言，从播种时的精量点播 到现在的机械化田管，全程科技赋能让棉农尝到甜头。据了解，该镇今年棉田机械化中耕率达100%， 配套推广的生物防治技术覆盖率超80%。 "种子落地，田管跟进。我们建立了'技术人员包村、村干部包户'的双包联机制。"大河沿子镇党委委员 仝军介绍，全镇已组建12支田管服务小队，针对不同地块制定"个性化"管理方案。目前全镇化调作业 完成率达90%，中耕进度过半，预计5月20日前全面完成苗期管理关键环节。下一步将重点推进病虫害 绿色防控，通过性诱剂、杀虫灯等物理防治手段，实现农药使用量同比减少20%的目标。 据悉，大河沿子镇棉花种植面积占精河县40%以上，近年来通过构建"良种繁育+全程机械化+科技服 务"产业体系，棉花单产和质量水平位居全疆前列。此次田管行动的高效推进，不仅为年度丰收奠定基 础，更成为当地农业现代化发展的生动注脚。 当前正值棉花田间管理关键期，新疆精河县大河沿子镇抢抓农时推进"早化调、早中耕"田管策略，全 镇21万亩棉 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Cotton prices fluctuate with market sentiment. The domestic cotton spot market has light trading, while the cotton yarn market has fair transactions and slightly rising prices. The cotton fabric market has slightly improved, but overall orders are still insufficient, and export orders have limited improvement. ICE cotton continues to decline, lacking upward momentum in the short term [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,390 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.19%, and CY2507 closed at 19,620 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41%. ICE cotton 07 closed at 65.14 cents/pound with a daily decline of 0.53%. The trading volume of CF2509 decreased by 35,159 lots to 245,332 lots, and the trading volume of CY2507 decreased by 1,999 lots to 4,054 lots [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,243 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan. The 3128B index was 14,577 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, with a 20 - yuan change compared to the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,060 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan change [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of cotton spot is still light, and most spot basis prices are stable. Different grades of cotton in Xinjiang have different sales basis prices, and the cotton outbound freight by truck has little change [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The transaction of pure cotton yarn is fair, the price is slightly rising, the inventory of spinning mills has decreased, but the profit has deteriorated. The transaction of cotton fabric has slightly improved, some orders have returned, but overall orders are still insufficient, and export orders have limited improvement [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton continued to decline last Friday. The weather in the US cotton - growing areas is good, and the market is concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. There is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [3]. Trend Intensity The cotton trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [5].

眼下，新疆生产建设兵团第七师胡杨河市170万亩棉花出苗显行，长势喜人。一片片绿油油的棉花苗， 仿佛给田野铺上了绿色的地毯，一派生机勃勃的景象。 为切实提高棉花种植质量，促进棉花增产增收，一二六团农业和林业草原中心工作人员和各连队"两 委"每天深入地头为种植户提供全方位的技术服务，特别是对早中耕、早封土、适时化学调控等方面进 行详细讲解，督促各连队开足马力、加快推进，将各项关键技术落实到位，为实现棉花"五月蕾"夯实 基础。 一二六团农业和林业草原中心技术人员黄北京说："目前，我们加快中耕封土进度，为下一步棉花出壮 苗打下良好的基础。" 今年，一二六团种植棉花13万亩，随着"早播、早管、早促"全链条举措落地，一二六团正以精细化春 耕为全年农业提质增效夯实基础。 一三〇团3连"两委"魏红光说："我们三连今年计划棉花种植面积是19157亩，目前，大部分棉田都是两 叶一心，可以达到一类苗状态。从5月1日开始，我们连每天投入12辆封土机，进行棉田封土，计划5月 15日全面结束。封土对棉花苗长势有保湿保温作用，可以促进棉花根系发展，避免出现大小苗情况， 也利于后面的化调工作开展。" 截至目前，一三〇团播种的29万余亩棉花已 ...

"干播湿出"技术，即在播种前棉田无需进行冬灌或春灌，直接整地后铺设地膜、滴灌带并播撒棉花种 子，待达到适宜出苗温度时，通过膜下滴灌的方式少量滴水，使膜下土壤墒情满足棉花种子的出苗需 求。 "干播湿出"技术已在多来提巴格乡广泛铺开，众多棉农从中获益，多来提巴格乡吉格代力克巴格村的 种植户罗先群便是其中之一。随着棉花田间管理工作的稳步推进，她对自家310亩棉花的丰收满怀信 心。 种植户罗先群说："以前春灌费时费力，成本还高，自从用了'干播湿出'技术，不仅节水，出苗率还 高。" 5月9日，在新疆巴楚县多来提巴格乡吉格代力克巴格村的棉田，绿油油的棉苗正茁壮成长，田间地头 处处洋溢着生机与希望。今年，巴楚县各乡镇大力推广"干播湿出"棉花种植管理技术，为棉花丰收筑 牢根基。 在推广"干播湿出"技术的过程中，多来提巴格乡积极引导棉农转变种植观念，提升科技意识。通过组 织现场观摩活动，让棉农直观感受新技术的优势，充分激发他们应用新技术的积极性与主动性。 如今，这一技术在多来提巴格乡吉格代力克巴格村应用成效显著。采用"干播湿出"技术后，每亩棉田 可节水约150立方米，极大提升了水资源利用效率。同时，凭借精准把控滴水时间与水量， ...

中新网乌鲁木齐5月6日电(陶拴科) "世界棉花看中国，中国棉花看新疆"的生动表述，深刻揭示了新疆在 全球棉花产业中的关键角色。棉花不仅是新疆农民的主要经济来源，更是推动区域经济发展的重要支柱 产业。 随着科技的进步与产业结构的优化，新疆棉花产业正以崭新的姿态，助力当地经济发展，为全国乃至全 球的棉花市场注入强劲动力。 新疆棉花产业正迎来发展新机遇，在政策护航、科技赋能、市场调节的三重驱动下，新疆棉田从"劳动 密集型"转向"技术密集型"。 统计数据显示，2024年，新疆棉花种植面积为3671.9万亩，较上年播种面积稳中有升，全程机械化率超 97%，机采率突破90%。种植成本由传统模式1800元/亩下降至"智慧棉田"的1300元/亩。 应对墒情差异打出"组合拳" 4月以来，随着气温回暖，土壤墒情好，新疆棉花播种工作自南向北迅速展开。 新疆北部的塔城地区乌苏市车排子镇康苏瓦特村通过多种方式，积极推广农业新机械与新技术在棉花播 种中的应用。该村党支部书记龚成江介绍说："今年，我们引入了侧封土播种技术，并采用5米宽的薄膜 进行播种，这种模式不仅节水效果显著，还能实现一膜4行和一膜6行的多行播种。此外，加宽的薄膜设 计有 ...

Group 1 - Xinjiang has achieved significant advancements in cotton planting, particularly with over 99% mechanization in sowing [1] - The success is attributed to high-standard farmland construction, land transfer, technological support, and increased policy support [1] - The integration of high-standard farmland and smart agricultural machinery has improved land utilization and facilitated mechanized sowing [3] Group 2 - In Yili County, the promotion of high-standard farmland has transformed fragmented land into larger, more organized fields, enhancing efficiency for mechanized sowing [3] - Local farmers, such as Kurban Abulait, have benefited from land transfer and machinery subsidies, leading to increased income, with earnings exceeding 300,000 yuan annually [3][5] - The establishment of new professional farmers through training programs is accelerating agricultural modernization [5] Group 3 - The Aksu region has also achieved full mechanization in cotton sowing, utilizing large intelligent sowing machines equipped with BeiDou navigation technology [5][6] - These machines significantly enhance sowing efficiency, allowing farmers to complete sowing of over 400 acres in a single day [6] - The Aksu region has deployed 9,700 advanced agricultural machines during the spring sowing period, improving both the speed and quality of cotton planting [8]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector in Yili County, Xinjiang is experiencing modernization through the adoption of technology and the cultivation of new professional farmers, leading to increased productivity and income for local farmers [1][2][3] Group 1: Technological Adoption - Over 1.1 million acres of cotton in Yili County are entering the sowing period, with young farmers utilizing smart agricultural machinery to enhance productivity [1] - The use of unmanned high-power cotton sowing machines equipped with Beidou navigation systems is being implemented, showcasing advancements in precision agriculture [1][2] - The cooperative employs various sowing techniques such as "dry sowing and wet emergence" and "precision sowing" to improve efficiency and reduce resource consumption [1][2] Group 2: Economic Impact - A farmer in Yili County reported an income increase to over 300,000 yuan annually due to the combination of land leasing and agricultural machinery rental [1] - The establishment of the Xinjiang Bazhou Qiangsheng Agricultural Cooperative has led to the leasing of 18,000 acres of land, providing additional income opportunities for local villagers [2] Group 3: Workforce Development - Yili County is focusing on creating a new generation of professional farmers who are knowledgeable in technology and management, aiming to attract and train young individuals in agriculture [2][3] - The local government is enhancing training programs and promoting the application of technology to cultivate a skilled workforce that can effectively manage modern agricultural practices [3]