Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound of the US dollar does not indicate a trend reversal but rather a short-term reaction to geopolitical tensions and market conditions[6] - The dollar's rebound began on June 13, following the Israeli attacks, but has limited sustainability due to unchanged oil supply levels[12] - The market is currently experiencing crowded trades against the dollar, which may lead to short-term pressure on previously leading currencies and markets like Europe and Japan[21] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US economy shows resilience, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted to 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, while unemployment rates are projected to rise to 4.5%[31] - Inflation expectations have been revised upwards, with PCE inflation projected at 3.0% for 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[31] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the June meeting, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year[28] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, have contributed to market volatility and risk premiums in oil prices, with a $10 premium observed in crude oil prices[12] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, impacting risk appetite and commodity prices, necessitating close monitoring of developments[39]

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector experienced a partial recovery in the afternoon, with significant gains in specific stocks, particularly Keli Co., which surged over 10% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Keli Co. saw a notable increase, rising over 10% in the afternoon trading session [1] - Other companies such as Junyou Co. and Shandong Molong approached their daily limit up [1] - Tongyuan Petroleum, Shouhua Gas, and Beiken Energy also experienced rapid price increases [1]

Group 1 - The A-share oil and gas extraction service sector experienced a short-term surge, with Keli Co., Ltd. rising over 10% [1] - Huai Oil Co., Ltd. saw an increase of over 9% [1] - Other companies such as Tongyuan Petroleum and Beiken Energy also followed the upward trend [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong oil and gas stocks are experiencing a significant rally, with Shandong Molong (00568.HK) rising over 100% [1] - Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033.HK) has increased by more than 7% [1] - Other companies such as Shengli Pipeline (01080.HK) are also seeing gains [1]

第一财经记者从中国海油（600938.SH）方面了解到，中国海油旗下全资子公司CNOOC Hong Kong Holding Limited日前与哈萨克斯坦能源部及哈萨克斯坦国家石油天然气公司（KazMunayGas，简称"哈国油"）签署了 Zhylyoi区块油气勘探与生产合同。此次合作标志着中国海油首次布局哈萨克斯坦上游油气开发领域。 合同规定，Zhylyoi区块勘探期第一阶段为9年，CNOOC Hong Kong Holding Limited和哈国油分别拥有Zhylyoi区 块50%的权益。双方将成立联合作业公司，共同担任作业者。 Zhylyoi区块部分位于哈萨克斯坦阿特劳地区，部分位于里海哈萨克斯坦海域，面积约958平方公里。据哈国油初 步评估，该矿区的石油储量可能超过1.85亿吨。 公开信息显示，中国海油与哈国油在今年4月30日签署了关于该项目的联合活动协议和融资协议。中国海油将在地 质勘探期间提供融资支持。此次双方合作的地质勘探工作计划包括，在三维地震勘探方面，对400平方米区域开展 现场工作并做数据处理和解释，对400线米区域的二维历史数据进行处理，同时分阶段实施钻探工作，先钻探一口 2000米 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.31% [1] - The total market turnover reached 100.26 billion yuan, an increase of 53.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2900 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The military industry, diversified finance, solid-state battery, and CPO concept stocks led the gains, while innovative drugs, oil and gas extraction, and complete automobile sectors experienced declines [4] - The military sector saw a significant surge, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit, including Zhongguang Fanglei (300414) and Juyi Suoju (002342) [4] - The diversified finance sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like Ruida Futures (002961) and Hongye Futures (001236) also hitting the daily limit [4] - Solid-state battery concept stocks were active again, with Zhonglun New Materials (301565) hitting the daily limit and several others also performing well [4] Notable Stocks - The strongest performing stocks included: - 6 consecutive limit-up: Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928) [5] - 5 consecutive limit-up: Xintonglian (603022) [6] - 4 consecutive limit-up: Jida Zhengyuan (003029) [7] - 3 consecutive limit-up: Hongye Futures, Heli Tai (002217), and others [8] Hot Sectors - The military sector ranked as the top hot sector with 17 stocks hitting the daily limit and 10 stocks on consecutive limit-up streaks [9] - The new energy vehicle sector followed, with 15 stocks hitting the daily limit [10] - The Huawei concept sector also showed strength, with 13 stocks hitting the daily limit [11] Sector Insights - In the diversified finance sector, 40 institutions have been approved to provide virtual asset trading services, including Tianfeng Securities and others [14] - The military sector may see increased speculation due to geopolitical tensions, as comments from former President Trump suggest potential conflicts between Israel and Iran [15] - The solid-state battery sector is gaining attention with the launch of the vivo X Fold5, which features advanced battery technology [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China is advancing the establishment of a product carbon footprint management system, focusing on key sectors such as coal, electricity, oil, gas, steel, cement, petrochemicals, and transportation, aiming to enhance the carbon footprint accounting standards and factor research [1][6]. Group 1: Carbon Footprint Management System - The carbon footprint of a product encompasses the total carbon emissions generated throughout its entire lifecycle, from raw material acquisition to disposal, serving as a crucial indicator of a company's and product's green and low-carbon level [2][5]. - As of 2024, over 70 national standards for carbon footprint accounting are in development, alongside more than 100 group standards for specific sectors, addressing the urgent need for carbon footprint accounting in various industries [1][2]. Group 2: Government and Industry Initiatives - The government is integrating carbon footprint requirements into procurement standards, promoting green procurement practices that emphasize environmental protection and resource conservation [2][3]. - Major e-commerce platforms are encouraged to display product carbon footprint information, with initiatives like Alibaba's "88 Carbon Account" and JD's "Green Plan" aimed at promoting low-carbon consumption [3][5]. Group 3: Financial Innovations - Financial institutions are innovating in carbon footprint management, with products like "Carbon Number Loan" aimed at supporting small and micro enterprises in green transformation by linking loan rates to carbon footprint levels [5][6]. - In 2024, significant loans were issued based on carbon footprint metrics, including a 20 million yuan loan for a car rental company and a 29 million yuan loan for a cable manufacturing enterprise, demonstrating the financial sector's role in incentivizing low-carbon practices [5][6]. Group 4: Future Directions - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to enhance the carbon footprint accounting standards and factor research, focusing on key sectors and aiming for international recognition of domestic standards [6][7]. - There is an emphasis on local and industry enterprises to innovate in carbon footprint management and certification, with a goal to establish a comprehensive carbon footprint management system [6][7].

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 6 月 26 日 期指：金融题材支撑，偏强震荡 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3960.07 | ↑1.44 | | 3617.3 | | | | | | IF2507 | 3935 | ↑1.68 | -25.07 | 565.1 | 48249 | ↑5145 | 71641 | ↑2775 | | IF2508 | 3925 | ↑1.79 | -35.07 | 4 3 | 3682 | ↑1578 | 4093 | ↑2183 | | IF2509 | 3922.8 | ↑1.93 | -37.27 | 711.7 | 61056 | ↑3521 | 139245 | ↑6129 | | IF2512 | 3890.6 | ↑1.94 | -69.4 ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲能源巨头壳牌(Shell Plc) 否认《华尔街日报》关于其正积极洽谈收购总部位于 伦敦的油气领域最大规模竞争对手之一英国石油公司(BP.US) 的相关媒体报道。"这只是进一步的市场猜 测，目前我们并未进行任何谈判。"壳牌的一位发言人表示。 如果正式将英国石油在美国丹佛的页岩子公司 BPX 纳入壳牌的业务版图，某种程度上可弥补壳牌于 2021年将二叠盆地业务出售给康菲石油公司，随后错过二叠纪石油行业大繁荣的遗憾。当时的上游业务 主管萨旺(Wael Sawan)如今已是壳牌首席执行官。 受该报道称英国石油公司正在与壳牌积极进行早期收购磋商影响，周三英国石油股价在纽约盘中交易一 度大涨超10%。此后涨幅大幅收敛，截至周三美股收盘，仅剩约 1.6% 的股价升幅。 多年以来业绩欠佳、再加上激进维权股东埃利奥特投资管理公司(Elliott Investment Management)的介 入，英国石油管理层一直在承受巨大的经营改革与业绩增长压力。今年2月，新任首席执行官穆雷·奥金 克洛斯宣布"战略重置"，但市场反应平淡，分析师和投资者质疑该能源公司能否在缩减清洁能源业务以 及提高油气产量的同时大 ...

Group 1 - The ETF market opened with mixed performance, with the Bank ETF Index Fund (516210) leading gains at 7.83% [1] - The Kweichow Moutai ETF (588210) increased by 1.90%, while the Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) rose by 1.87% [1] - The Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF (159202) experienced the largest decline, dropping by 9.94%, followed by the CSI 800 ETF (159800) which fell by 2.5% [1] - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF (513350) decreased by 1.58% [1]