光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二尿素期货价格偏弱震荡，主力05合约收盘价1774元/吨，微幅下跌0.11%。现货 | 市场再度回暖，昨日山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1740元/吨、1740元/吨，日环 | | | | | | 比分别上涨10元/吨、持平。近期尿素供应窄幅波动，昨日尿素行业日产量19.94万 | 吨，日环比减少0.26万吨，未来在气头企业复产预期下供应仍有提升预期。需求情 | | | | | | 尿素 | 绪继续分化，昨日主流地区产销率低位的仅有5%~10%，高位的40%~60%，仅个别 | 震荡 | 地区达到90%，区域间差异更加明显。短期尿素厂家出货压力可控，且需求仍有冬 | | | | 储肥支撑，再加上国际市场仍有扰动，市场将进入震荡整理阶段。后续随着春节临 | 近，市场成交趋于寡淡，供需压力或逐步体现，盘面或将承压。关注尿素供应恢复 | | | | | | 速度、现货成交氛围、印标最终结果、本周库 ...

中化新网讯 日前，国家能源集团宁夏煤业公司万吨级α-烯烃分离装置打通全流程，一次性试车成功， 产出纯度大于99%的聚合级1-己烯与纯度大于98%的1-辛烯产品，标志着我国在煤基高端化工原料分离 技术领域实现关键跨越，延伸了煤炭间接液化α-烯烃产业链，为下游聚烯烃弹性体、茂金属聚α-烯烃等 产业发展奠定坚实基础。 该项目于2019年启动。历经6年，研发团队开发出"萃取精馏/催化精馏"分离工艺，攻克了费托油深度脱 氧、同碳数烷烯烃分离及高纯度α-烯烃提纯等技术难题，完成了从单点实验到全流程工艺技术集成，形 成了具有自主知识产权的α-烯烃分离成套工艺技术。 据悉，该装置已通过中国石油和化学工业联合会组织的72小时性能考核。α-烯烃分离工艺路线流程合 理、方案可行、技术可靠。装置的成功投产，为10万吨级费托1-己烯与1-辛烯的产业化提供了核心技术 支撑。 α-烯烃是生产高端聚烯烃、高性能润滑油基础油(PAO)等产品的主要原料。长期以来，我国C6以上α-烯 烃严重依赖进口，尤其是从煤制油费托合成产物中分离聚合级α-烯烃工艺技术长期被国外垄断，严重制 约了我国α-烯烃及下游产业的发展。 图为装置现场。(企业供图) ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，幷明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而産生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 1 | 1．產量 | 萬噸 | 18.8 | 195.5 | 17.4 | 173.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2．銷量 | 萬噸 | 18.0 | 196.3 | 17.0 | 171.6 | 5.9 | 14.4 | | （四）硝銨 | | | | | | | | | 1．產量 | 萬噸 | 5.4 | 58.6 | 6.0 | 57.5 | -10.0 | 1.9 | | 2．銷量 | 萬噸 | 5.5 | 58.9 | 6.0 | 57.2 | -8.3 | 3.0 | | 三、煤礦裝備業務 | | | | | | | | | 煤礦裝備產值 | 億元 | 6.0 | 92.1 | 9.1 | 103.5 | -34.1 | -11.0 | 以上生產經營數據源自本公司內部統計，為投資者及時 ...

上述生产经营数据并不对本公司未来经营情况作出任何明示或默示的预测 或保证，投资者应注意不恰当信赖或使用以上信息可能造成投资风险。 公司将在本公告披露后适时召开月度生产经营数据说明会，具体参会事宜请 询公司投资者热线 010-82236028。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 指标项目 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 变化比率（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 月份 12 | 累计 | 月份 12 | 累计 | 月份 12 | 累计 | | 一、煤炭业务 | | | | | | | | | （一）商品煤产量 | 万吨 | 1,091 | 13,510 | 1,186 | 13,757 | -8.0 | -1.8 | | （二）商品煤销量 | 万吨 | 2,188 | 25,586 | 2,842 | 28,483 | -23.0 | -10.2 | | 其中：自产商品煤销量 | 万吨 | 1, ...

Core Viewpoint - Baofeng Energy has shown a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, indicating strong financial performance and growth potential in the coal-to-olefins sector [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 13, Baofeng Energy's stock rose by 2.07%, reaching 19.77 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.93 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.13%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 144.98 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Baofeng Energy's stock price has increased by 0.71%, with a decline of 2.99% over the last five trading days, an increase of 11.44% over the last 20 days, and a rise of 16.84% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Baofeng Energy achieved an operating revenue of 35.55 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.95 billion CNY, which is a 97.27% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Baofeng Energy has distributed a total of 17.35 billion CNY in dividends, with 8.12 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Baofeng Energy had 65,400 shareholders, an increase of 3.70% from the previous period, with an average of 112,206 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 3.57% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 177 million shares, a decrease of 25.62 million shares from the previous period, while Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and Chemical ETF are also notable shareholders [2].

Group 1: Research Views - Urea futures prices were firm and fluctuating on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,783 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.22%. The spot market started to decline, with the market prices in Shandong and Henan regions at 1,730 yuan/ton and 1,740 yuan/ton respectively, down 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton day-on-day. The industry's supply had a narrow fluctuation, with the daily output of the urea industry at 202,000 tons, a slight increase of 18,000 tons day-on-day. There was still an expectation of further increase in the future. The demand sentiment remained cautious with obvious regional differentiation. The daily sales-to-output ratio in the mainstream regions ranged from 10% - 20% at the low end to 80% - 120% at the high end, and there was an individual region with a ratio of 200%. In the short term, there was a game between supply and demand in the urea market. The result of the Indian tender in the international market was unclear, which still had an impact on the domestic market. The futures market had reached a stage high, and the room for further increase was limited. It was recommended to treat it with a high-level fluctuation and consolidation mindset in the short term. As the Spring Festival approached, market transactions would become dull, and supply and demand pressure might gradually emerge. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of urea supply, the atmosphere of spot transactions, the final result of the Indian tender, and the overall sentiment of the futures market. The view was "fluctuating" [2]. - Soda ash futures prices were fluctuating strongly on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,239 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.31%. The quotes of spot manufacturers were mostly stable, while the quotes of traders continued to fluctuate following the sentiment of the futures market. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe region was 1,189 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton day-on-day. Fundamentally, large - scale plants in Henan and Inner Mongolia had increased their loads and resumed production, and the industry's operating rate had increased to 86.82%, with room for further improvement. The demand sentiment became more cautious, and some downstream enterprises' acceptance of the current price decreased, and their purchasing willingness weakened. In addition, there was still an expectation of water storage in the production lines of downstream float glass, which further suppressed the rigid demand level of soda ash. Overall, the soda ash futures market faced a game between fundamentals and external factors, and it was mainly in a short - term fluctuation and consolidation state. As the Spring Festival approached, the decline in rigid demand and the accumulation of enterprise inventories would continue to put pressure on the market. A bearish mindset was recommended from a medium - term perspective. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of new production capacity output, changes in downstream production capacity, macro and policy dynamics, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market. The view was "fluctuating" [2]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated widely on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,143 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.09%. The spot price strengthened again, with the average price of the domestic float glass market at 1,096 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton day-on-day. Recently, glass production lines had been continuously shut down for cold - repair, and the daily melting capacity in production in the industry was stable at around 150,000 tons. There were still plans for some production lines to undergo cold - repair before the Spring Festival, and the supply support expectation still existed. The follow - up sentiment on the demand side remained positive, and the daily sales - to - output ratio in the mainstream regions mostly remained above 100%, with an individual region at 90%. In the short term, the low supply and high - level spot transactions of glass continued to support the price - increasing mentality of glass manufacturers, but there was still a contradiction between supply and demand in the glass market, and the futures market mainly fluctuated widely. As the Spring Festival approached, the rigid demand might gradually decline, and the fundamentals would still be under pressure at that time. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production capacity, the strength and sustainability of spot transactions, and the overall trend of macro and commodities. The view was "fluctuating" [2]. Group 2: Market Information Urea - According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, on January 12, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 13,200, an increase of 350 from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 100 [5]. - According to Longzhong data, on January 12, the daily output of the urea industry was 202,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate on that day was 85.81%, a 4.55 - percentage - point increase compared with 81.26% in the same period last year [5]. - On January 12, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,730 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), Henan 1,740 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Anhui 1,740 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Jiangsu 1,740 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), and Shanxi 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, on January 12, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 4,220, a decrease of 700 from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 878; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 1,876, an increase of 200 from the previous trading day [7]. - On January 12, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were: North China, light soda ash 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,250 yuan/ton; Central China, light soda ash 1,130 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,230 yuan/ton; East China, light soda ash 1,160 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,230 yuan/ton; South China, light soda ash 1,350 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,400 yuan/ton; Southwest, light soda ash 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,300 yuan/ton; Northwest, light soda ash 890 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 860 yuan/ton [7]. - According to Longzhong data, on January 12, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.82%, compared with 84.7% on the previous working day [8]. - According to Longzhong data, on January 12, the average price of the float glass market was 1,096 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the daily output was 150,000 tons per day, unchanged day - on - day [8]. Group 3: Chart Analysis - The report presented multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources were iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][12][14][18][20][22][23]. Group 4: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has long been focused on the sugar industry research. She has participated in major projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the writing of series books of the China Futures Association. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Best Futures Analyst selection of Futures Daily and Securities Times, the "Senior Senior Analyst of Sugar" title from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and the "Best Chief Futures Analyst of Agricultural and Sideline Products" title in the 17th China Best Futures Analyst Selection of Securities Times and Futures Daily in 2024. Her futures practice qualification number is F0306200, and her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0000082 [25]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of Accounting and Finance from the University of Bristol, UK, is currently an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has participated in large - scale projects and topics of the China Futures Association and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and has won awards in authoritative media and competitions such as the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Futures Daily, and Securities Times. She won the honors of "Senior Senior Analyst of Soda Ash" and "Senior Analyst of Urea" from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from 2024 to 2025. Her futures practice qualification number is F3067502, and her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0014869 [25]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a finance master from Yunnan University, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferro - alloy. He has participated in the writing of relevant topics of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has long published articles on futures and spot websites. He won the "Senior Analyst of Textiles" title from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 and the "Best Agricultural and Sideline Product Futures Analyst" title in 2025. His futures practice qualification number is F03099994, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0021057 [25][26]. Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [28]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points and achieving a historical 16 consecutive days of gains, driven by sectors such as commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, humanoid robots, and resource stocks [1][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The current market rally is attributed to concentrated inflows from previously cautious funds, with a notable focus on thematic stocks and small-cap stocks rather than traditional allocation strategies [3][13]. - Short-term market sentiment remains high, with no signs of weakening emotional indicators, suggesting that the upward trend in thematic and small-cap stocks may continue until after the Two Sessions [3][13]. - The market is currently characterized by a high level of trading activity, with a significant increase in transaction volume, indicating strong investor confidence [16]. Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors with high cost-performance ratios, particularly those benefiting from external demand recovery, such as gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals [4][14]. - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of continued upward momentum despite potential short-term profit-taking pressures [19]. - The resource sector, particularly traditional manufacturing, is advised for increased allocation, with a focus on enhancing pricing power [3][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - February is anticipated to be a favorable period for the market, with historical data suggesting that significant trading volumes often lead to sustained upward trends [16]. - The market is expected to enter a phase of basic performance evaluation after the annual report disclosures in January, which may provide opportunities for investors to capitalize on growth potential [17]. - The overall sentiment indicates that the upward potential in the market outweighs the risks, with a focus on sectors that align with long-term growth trends, such as AI and semiconductor industries [20].

Group 1 - The recent improvement in market liquidity has driven the A-share market's rise, with a notable increase in margin trading balance by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume [2][8] - Historical data indicates that similar market conditions have occurred six times in the past decade, with a high probability of continued strength in the A-share market over the next 10, 20, and 250 trading days following such volume increases [9][12] - However, there are signs of structural overheating, particularly in the commercial aerospace index, which has seen a significant increase in turnover rate and trading volume share, indicating a need for fundamental support for such rapid trading concentration [2][9] Group 2 - The negative impact of AI on the U.S. employment market is becoming evident, with December's non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and a cumulative reduction of 340,000 jobs in sectors heavily affected by AI [3][15] - The ongoing concerns about a prolonged interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve are alleviating fears of a second inflation wave, benefiting commodity prices as the demand-supply gap becomes more pronounced [3][23] - The geopolitical tensions are altering inventory behaviors among market participants, leading to increased stockpiling and a significant rise in copper and silver inventories since 2025 [24][27] Group 3 - Domestic policies aimed at reducing "involution" are being implemented, with industrial PPI showing a positive trend, indicating a shift from price drag to support for corporate revenues [4][35] - The recent regulatory focus on the photovoltaic industry has raised concerns about the commitment to anti-involution policies, but the overall direction remains focused on improving corporate profitability through reasonable policy guidance [4][40] - The market is expected to see improvements in corporate earnings as the anti-involution policies take effect, with a focus on preventing monopolistic practices while fostering innovation [4][42] Group 4 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that the ongoing liquidity improvements and fundamental changes will drive future performance [5][43] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery [5][43]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on key tasks to drive economic development in the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, aligning with the central government's strategic positioning and promoting high-quality economic growth. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The Corps aims to focus on eight key tasks to enhance economic work and provide clear action guidelines [1] - Emphasis on maintaining social stability and implementing a comprehensive risk management system to prevent major accidents and ensure economic safety [1] - The strategy includes optimizing the consumption environment and enhancing urban-rural commercial networks to stimulate consumer activity [2] Group 2: Investment and Infrastructure - The Corps promotes a "project-first" approach to direct investments towards infrastructure, public welfare, and industrial upgrades [2] - There is a focus on utilizing central budget investments and special bonds to support key projects [2] Group 3: Innovation and Industry - The article highlights the need for innovation-driven development to build a modern industrial system, with a focus on digital and intelligent transformation of traditional industries [4] - Support for collaboration between enterprises and research institutions to overcome technological bottlenecks and enhance competitiveness [4] Group 4: Reform and Governance - Continuous reform efforts are necessary to address development challenges and enhance market vitality, including streamlining administrative processes [5] - The article stresses the importance of supporting private enterprises and improving communication between government and businesses [5] Group 5: Open Economy - The Corps aims to expand high-level openness by leveraging various trade platforms and enhancing infrastructure connectivity with surrounding regions [6] - Focus on optimizing export structures and increasing the scale of key product exports [6] Group 6: Social and Environmental Responsibility - The article emphasizes the importance of green development, promoting clean energy and sustainable agricultural practices [8] - There is a commitment to improving public services and ensuring that development benefits the population, particularly in employment and healthcare [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [70]. Core Insights - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported at 18,043, 14,171, and 14,478 CNY/ton respectively, with TDI showing a week-on-week increase of 59 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for ethane, propane, and coal are 1,165, 4,172, and 520 CNY/ton respectively, with ethane decreasing by 85 CNY/ton and propane increasing by 45 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,213, 1,724, 3,787, and 2,546 CNY/ton respectively, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 34 CNY/ton and urea increasing by 12 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for animal nutrition products such as VA and VE are 62.5 and 54.9 CNY/kg respectively, with no significant changes [2]. Summary by Sections Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 18,043, 14,171, and 14,478 CNY/ton respectively, with TDI showing a week-on-week increase of 59 CNY/ton [2][16][20]. Oil, Coal, and Olefins Sector - Ethane and propane average prices are 1,165 and 4,172 CNY/ton respectively, with ethane decreasing by 85 CNY/ton and propane increasing by 45 CNY/ton [2][24][31]. - The average price for polyethylene is 6,800 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 30 CNY/ton [2]. Coal Chemical Sector - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,213, 1,724, 3,787, and 2,546 CNY/ton respectively, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 34 CNY/ton and urea increasing by 12 CNY/ton [2][40][48][49]. Animal Nutrition Sector - The average prices for VA, VE, solid egg amino acid, and liquid egg amino acid are 62.5, 54.9, 17.6, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with no significant changes [2][56][62].