1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The supply of crude oil is expected to be in excess in the medium - to - long term, and there is a high probability that it will be pressured to around $60. For other chemical products, their market trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal demand [1][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.69%, Brent dropped 1.52%, and SC dropped 0.70% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, providing some support, but there is a large probability of supply excess in the medium - to - long term, which may push the price down to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased in August. The U.S. crude oil net imports decreased, and exports increased. OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while diesel inventory increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [480 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 18, the PG main contract closed at 4466 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil supply is in excess, and the demand from the chemical industry has weakened. The supply and inventory have increased, which is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7188 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price has continued to fall. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase next week, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term weak oscillation. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of [7150 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6926 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan [21]. - **Basic Logic**: High - level maintenance cannot offset high - level expansion. The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price is weak. The cost of propylene is high, suppressing processing profits. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price is at a premium. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4923 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a high level. The cost support from thermal coal has improved. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The export is expected to weaken [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices have little change at home and abroad. The demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has led to a short - term increase in load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6620 - 6720] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 closed at 4648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low. The supply pressure has increased due to new device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices. The market has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for single - side trading; pay attention to the opportunity to expand the PTA processing fee for arbitrage [2]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. The market has expectations for the peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, providing some support. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, showing a weak oscillation [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold high - level short positions, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [4235 - 4280] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The device maintenance of methanol has increased, and the supply - side pressure is expected to improve. The demand has slightly improved, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The cost support is stabilizing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2328 - 2370] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The short - term supply is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, while the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2]. Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: The U.S. natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, causing the price to weaken. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand and the winter gas storage, which provides some support [4]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has rebounded due to geopolitical disturbances, but the supply is in excess. The asphalt supply - demand is generally loose, and the valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Basic Logic**: The production and sales in some regions are okay, and the spot price has increased. The supply is under pressure, and the terminal demand is still weak [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to peak - season demand support, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks. The supply is expected to be loose after the end of summer maintenance [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to slight demand improvement, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].

Company Overview - Yao Pi Glass is located in the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone and was established on November 23, 1993, with its listing date on January 28, 1994 [1] - The company specializes in the production and sales of transparent float glass, colored float glass, and deep processing products [1] - The revenue composition includes automotive processed glass (38.72%), building processed glass (35.22%), float glass (32.77%), and other (1.70%) [1] Stock Performance - As of September 19, Yao Pi Glass's stock price increased by 2.30%, reaching 7.11 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 6.647 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 32.58%, with a 2.01% increase over the last five trading days, 8.72% over the last twenty days, and 24.02% over the last sixty days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the most recent appearance on July 4, where it recorded a net buy of -34.6869 million CNY [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yao Pi Glass reported a revenue of 2.618 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.81%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 86.366 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.92% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 1.533 billion CNY, with 44.876 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders is 42,300, a decrease of 7.64% from the previous period [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include the China Securities Shanghai State-owned Enterprise ETF, holding 2.8038 million shares, which is a decrease of 311,700 shares compared to the previous period [3] Industry Context - Yao Pi Glass operates within the building materials sector, specifically in glass manufacturing, and is associated with concepts such as renewable energy, solar energy, energy conservation, photovoltaic glass, and BYD concepts [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest price, profit, and inventory data of glass and soda ash, as well as the production and sales situation of glass [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From September 11th to September 18th, the prices of 5mm glass plates from different manufacturers showed various trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1144 to 1155, and that from Wuhan Changli increased from 1060 to 1100 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG05 contract price decreased by 14 from 1342 to 1328 on September 18th compared to September 17th, and FG01 contract price decreased by 26 from 1234 to 1208 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased by 4.1 to 241.2 on September 18th compared to September 17th, while the profit of South China natural - gas glass remained unchanged at - 188.1 [1]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe factories had fair production and sales, but Shahe traders had poor sales at low prices. Hubei factories raised prices and had good transactions, while the middle - stream in Hubei had poor sales [1]. - **Production and Sales Rates**: Shahe's production and sales rate was 108, Hubei's was 95, East China's was 101, and South China's was 100 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From September 11th to September 18th, the prices of heavy and light soda ash from different regions also changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased by 20 from 1230 to 1210 on September 18th compared to September 17th [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05 contract price decreased by 18 from 1418 to 1400 on September 18th compared to September 17th, and SA01 contract price decreased by 28 from 1334 to 1306 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased by 33.8 to - 144.6 on September 18th compared to September 17th, and the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased by 33.1 to - 119.0 [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: Factory inventories decreased significantly, while delivery warehouse inventories increased significantly, resulting in a slight overall increase in inventory [1].

Macro Analysis - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of easing, with guidance indicating three rate cuts within the year, aligning with the Fed's dual mandate framework that emphasizes employment risks [2] - The fourth quarter's rate cut is likely to be more of a "preventive cut" rather than a "recessionary cut," which is favorable for risk assets [2] Fiscal Data - In August, improvements in PPI have led to a rapid increase in corporate income tax, positively contributing to overall tax revenue [3] - Government debt supply is increasing, and with accelerated fiscal spending, there is potential for improvement in infrastructure investment [3] - Public budget revenue is progressing faster than expenditure, indicating a focus on effectively utilizing fiscal funds in future policies [3] Industry Research Steel Industry - The steel sector's ROA is at a low level since 2010, with PB_LF still having a 6.67% gap compared to the average since 2013, indicating potential for investment [5] - Companies in the steel sector are prioritizing investor returns, with a commendable overall dividend level; key recommendations include Baosteel, Ordos, and CITIC Special Steel [5] Construction Industry - Qihang Group's float glass business saw volume increase but price decrease, leading to revenue decline, while photovoltaic glass business experienced significant growth in both production and revenue [6] - The forecast for Qihang Group's net profit for 2025-2027 is maintained at 1 billion, 800 million, and 1.06 billion respectively, with a "buy" rating [6] Cement and Chemical Industry - Qingsong Jianhua, a leader in the Xinjiang cement industry, faced significant declines in revenue and profit in H1 2025, prompting a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [8] - The company’s chemical business profitability remains under pressure, with new net profit forecasts of 350 million for 2025 and 380 million for 2026 [8] Internet Media - Baidu's net cash flow remains healthy, with its business model validated in Wuhan, and Kunlun chip shipments exceeding expectations [9] - The AI ecosystem's value is viewed positively, with revised Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 18.2 billion, 20.5 billion, and 23 billion respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance of Qibin Group for the first half of 2025, indicating a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, suggesting a mixed outlook for the company amidst market challenges [4]. Group 1: Float Glass Business - In H1 2025, the float glass business generated revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, while sales volume increased by 7% to 52.21 million weight boxes [5] - The average price of float glass dropped by 29% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 500 million yuan and a gross margin of 17.8%, down by 10.6 percentage points [5] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization due to government policies, but the float glass industry faces challenges from high fixed costs and low price elasticity, resulting in ongoing price declines [5] Group 2: Photovoltaic Glass Business - In H1 2025, the photovoltaic glass business achieved revenue of 3.2 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, with sales of photovoltaic glass processing sheets reaching 26.672 million square meters [6] - The demand for photovoltaic glass surged due to policies promoting distributed photovoltaic power generation, with new installed photovoltaic capacity reaching 212 GW, a 107% increase year-on-year [6] - However, as the initial surge in demand subsides, the industry faces challenges of oversupply and intensified price competition, leading to a rapid decline in photovoltaic glass prices [6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The risk of unilateral tariff increases in the US has subsided, and consumer confidence has rebounded from its low point in Q2, indicating that the most dangerous phase for the US economy may have passed [4] - With consumption accounting for nearly 70% of US GDP, the stabilization of consumer spending suggests that the US economy is unlikely to experience a sharp downturn [4] - The current interest rate cut cycle is more preventive in nature, rather than reactive [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - As of September 10, 2025, the narrow credit bond market has 12,837 active industrial bonds with a total outstanding scale of 14.48 trillion yuan, covering 29 primary industries [4] - More than half of the industries have seen a year-on-year increase in net profit margins, while most industries have experienced a year-on-year increase in interest-bearing debt [4] - Industries such as textiles and media have shown strong short-term debt repayment capabilities, and over half of the industries have achieved a year-on-year increase in operating cash flow [4] Group 3: Steel Industry Analysis - The average return on assets (ROA) for the rebar sector is at its lowest level since 2010, with the price-to-book ratio (PB_LF) still having a 6.67% gap compared to the average since 2013 [5] - Currently, 12 rebar companies have a PB_LF of less than 1, and 11 companies in the steel sector have a dividend yield of over 3% [5] - The completion of ultra-low emission transformations in the industry is expected to further increase the dividend payout ratio for rebar companies [5] Group 4: Company-Specific Reports - Qingsong Jianhua reported a 14% year-on-year decline in revenue, with net profit down 49% in H1 2025, indicating pressure on both volume and price in its cement business [7] - Qibin Group's H1 2025 revenue decreased by 7%, but net profit increased by 10%, with significant growth in photovoltaic glass sales [7] - Baidu maintains a healthy net cash flow, achieving breakeven in the Wuhan region, and its self-developed chips and AI ecosystem are expected to enhance its valuation [7]

浮法玻璃业务：均价显著下滑，销量同比增长。25H1，公司浮法玻璃业务实现收入28 亿元，同 比-24%，销售各种优质浮法玻璃原片5221 万重箱，同比增加339 万重箱（同比+7%），由此推算浮法 玻璃均价同比-29%；实现毛利润5 亿元，毛利率17.8%，同比-10.6pcts。25H1，国家继续出台稳楼市政 策，积极支持地产项目及时竣工及交付，为市场注入稳定预期，房地产市场目前仍处于筑底阶段，但改 善迹象已逐渐浮现，市场信心得到一定程度的修复。浮法玻璃在产产能在15 万吨/日以上波动，全国平 板玻璃产量5.14 亿重量箱，虽然产能、产量同比有所收缩，但整体仍处于高位。供需失衡带来行业库存 增加，深加工订单承压，叠加浮法玻璃行业刚性生产、高固定成本、低调节弹性的特征，导致浮法玻璃 产品价格持续震荡下行，产品毛利率呈下降趋势。 光伏玻璃业务：产销量同比大幅增长，收入两位数增长。25H1，公司光伏玻璃业务实现收入32 亿元， 同比+11%，销售光伏玻璃加工片26672 万平方米，产销量同比大幅增长。25H1，《分布式光伏发电开 发建设管理办法》等政策推动的光伏抢装潮，带来光伏玻璃短期内需求增加及价格阶段性上涨， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qibin Group (601636.SH) [5] Core Views - In H1 2025, Qibin Group reported revenues of 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10% to 890 million yuan [1] - The float glass business experienced a significant decline in average prices, with revenues dropping by 24% to 2.8 billion yuan, despite a 7% increase in sales volume [2] - The photovoltaic glass segment saw a substantial increase in both production and sales, with revenues rising by 11% to 3.2 billion yuan, driven by policy support and a surge in demand [3] Summary by Sections Float Glass Business - Revenue decreased by 24% to 2.8 billion yuan, with sales volume increasing by 7% to 52.21 million weight boxes, leading to a 29% drop in average price [2] - Gross profit was 500 million yuan, with a gross margin of 17.8%, down 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The market is stabilizing due to government policies supporting real estate projects, although the float glass industry faces challenges from high fixed costs and low price elasticity [2] Photovoltaic Glass Business - Revenue increased by 11% to 3.2 billion yuan, with sales of photovoltaic glass reaching 26.67 million square meters [3] - The domestic installed capacity of photovoltaic systems grew by 107% year-on-year to 212 GW, driven by policies promoting distributed photovoltaic development [3] - Despite the growth, the industry faces challenges of oversupply and declining prices as the initial demand surge subsides [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Qibin Group of 1 billion yuan, 800 million yuan, and 1.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The company is expected to maintain a stable revenue trajectory with slight fluctuations in profit margins due to market conditions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Fuyao Glass experienced a decline in stock price, dropping by 5.03% to 17.92 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 536 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.54%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 41.985 billion CNY [1] - Fuyao Glass Group Co., Ltd. is located in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, and was established on June 24, 1998. It was listed on February 15, 2019. The company's main business includes the research, production, and sales of photovoltaic glass, float glass, engineering glass, and household glass, as well as the mining and sales of quartz for glass and EPC photovoltaic power station engineering construction [1] - The revenue composition of Fuyao Glass is as follows: photovoltaic glass accounts for 89.76%, power generation income 3.16%, engineering glass 3.14%, other (supplementary) 1.98%, household glass 1.58%, float glass 0.36%, and mining products 0.01% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, data shows that one fund under Dacheng Fund has a significant position in Fuyao Glass. Dacheng Shengshi Selected Flexible Allocation Mixed A (002945) held 361,800 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 5.43% of the fund's net value, ranking as the eighth largest holding [2] - The estimated floating loss for Dacheng Shengshi Selected Flexible Allocation Mixed A (002945) today is approximately 343,700 CNY. The fund was established on December 20, 2017, with a latest scale of 101 million CNY. Year-to-date return is 21.66%, ranking 4209 out of 8172 in its category; the one-year return is 48.48%, ranking 3498 out of 7980; and the return since inception is 133.7% [2]

Company Overview - Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Zibo, Shandong Province, established on December 31, 1999, and listed on August 15, 2002. The company primarily engages in the production and sales of float glass, online coated glass, and ultra-white glass [1] - The main business revenue composition includes glass (67.75%), soda ash (31.18%), and other (1.07%) [1] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Jinjing Technology reported a revenue of 2.394 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -96.27 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 135.04% [2] - The company's stock price has decreased by 9.55% year-to-date, with a 5.76% decline over the last five trading days and a 0.20% decline over the last 20 days. However, there was an 8.10% increase over the last 60 days [1] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 94,600, with an average of 15,110 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 0.14% from the previous period [2] - The company has distributed a total of 999.2 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 205 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) as the fourth largest shareholder, holding 9.223 million shares, an increase of 1.7352 million shares from the previous period. Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fifth largest shareholder, holding 8.0615 million shares, a decrease of 350,810 shares [3]