Performance Overview - Since 2025, the annualized excess return median for enhanced index funds is 2.82%, with the 75th percentile reaching 8.21%, significantly higher than levels from 2022 to 2024[11] - The annualized excess return median for broad-based enhanced index funds is 3%, an increase of 0.68% compared to 2024[11] - The China Securities A500 Index has shown a remarkable annualized return of 48.97% over the past year, with a total return index close to 52.65%[2] Fund Performance - The China Europe A500 Enhanced Index Fund has achieved a cumulative return of 25.94% since its establishment, outperforming the A500 Index by 7.73%[46] - The fund ranks second among eight similar A500 enhanced funds in terms of performance since inception[46] - The fund's annualized excess return is approximately 11.1%, with a 1-month and 3-month performance ranking first among peers[6] Investment Strategy - The fund employs a "active + quantitative" management model, integrating subjective research with quantitative tools to enhance alpha generation[21] - The investment philosophy is based on GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), focusing on identifying quality companies with growth potential within reasonable price ranges[31] - The fund maintains a high index tracking ratio while leveraging active stock selection to contribute diversified alpha, with a correlation of daily excess returns to similar funds generally below 0.4 over the past six months[46] Risk Factors - Key risk factors include macroeconomic downturns, increased stock market volatility, and unexpected tightening of financial regulations[5] - The fund is classified as a high-risk, high-reward equity fund, and past performance does not guarantee future results[5] Fund Composition - As of mid-2025, the fund's total scale is 4.4 billion yuan, with a stock position of 92.73%[55] - The fund is diversified across various sectors, with significant allocations to machinery, agriculture, electronics, and utilities, while underweighting sectors like non-ferrous metals and transportation[55]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the principle of price momentum, aiming to capture upward trends in industries through a diffusion index[26][27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the diffusion index for each industry based on price momentum 2. Rank industries by their diffusion index values 3. Select top industries for allocation based on their rankings 4. Adjust the portfolio monthly or weekly based on updated diffusion index rankings[26][27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable performance in certain years (e.g., 2022 with an annual excess return of 6.12%) but struggled during market reversals or concentrated market themes, such as in 2024 and 2025[26][33] 2. Model Name: GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process high-frequency volume and price data, aiming to identify industry rotation opportunities[38] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Input high-frequency volume and price data into the GRU network 2. Train the GRU model on historical data to identify patterns in industry rotation 3. Generate factor scores for industries based on the GRU model's output 4. Rank industries by their GRU factor scores and allocate to top-ranked industries[38][34] - **Model Evaluation**: The model performs well in short cycles but struggles in long cycles or extreme market conditions. It has shown difficulty in capturing excess returns in concentrated market themes during 2025[33][38] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model - **Weekly Average Return**: -1.74%[30] - **Excess Return (Weekly)**: -1.41%[30] - **Excess Return (September 2025)**: -1.88%[30] - **Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: 2.76%[25][30] 2. GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model - **Weekly Average Return**: -0.72%[36] - **Excess Return (Weekly)**: -0.38%[36] - **Excess Return (September 2025)**: -0.10%[36] - **Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: -7.78%[33][36] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Diffusion Index - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the breadth of price momentum across industries to identify upward trends[26][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the proportion of stocks in an industry with positive price momentum 2. Aggregate these proportions to derive the diffusion index for the industry 3. Rank industries based on their diffusion index values[27][28] - **Factor Evaluation**: Effective in capturing upward trends but vulnerable to reversals and underperformance in counter-trend markets[26][33] 2. Factor Name: GRU Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Utilizes GRU deep learning to analyze high-frequency trading data and generate predictive scores for industry rotation[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Input high-frequency trading data into the GRU network 2. Train the model to recognize patterns in industry rotation 3. Output factor scores for industries based on the model's predictions[38][34] - **Factor Evaluation**: Strong in short-term predictions but less effective in long-term or extreme market conditions[33][38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index - **Top Industries (Weekly)**: Non-ferrous Metals (0.978), Banking (0.968), Communication (0.946), Electronics (0.877), Automotive (0.874), Retail (0.873)[27] - **Bottom Industries (Weekly)**: Food & Beverage (0.354), Real Estate (0.46), Coal (0.487), Transportation (0.543), Construction (0.574), Building Materials (0.618)[27] 2. GRU Factor - **Top Industries (Weekly)**: Non-ferrous Metals (7.4), Petrochemicals (5.38), Coal (4.17), Steel (4.15), Building Materials (3.46), Non-banking Financials (3.08)[34] - **Bottom Industries (Weekly)**: Comprehensive Finance (-19.42), Utilities (-13.41), Electronics (-13.18), Pharmaceuticals (-11.14), Automotive (-10.07), Consumer Services (-10.04)[34]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with significant positions in non-bank financials (11.7%), steel (11.0%), and comprehensive sectors (10.1%) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries was -0.4%, while the average return over the past month was 2.3% [3][10] - The report identifies the top-performing industries for the week as automotive (4.4%), electronics (4.4%), and electric equipment and new energy (4.1%), while the worst performers were banking (-5.6%), non-bank financials (-4.4%), and food and beverage (-3.6%) [3][10] Industry Performance Review - The report provides a detailed performance review of CITIC primary industries, indicating that the automotive sector has a year-to-date return of 34.4%, while electronics and electric equipment and new energy have returns of 48.0% and 36.0%, respectively [11] - The report notes that the composite strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 24.5% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark return of 22.2% by 2.2% [3] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying industries with a PB ratio above the 95th percentile as overvalued [12][13] - Currently, the industries triggering high valuation warnings include retail, media, computing, and automotive, with their PB ratios exceeding the 95th percentile [13] Single Strategy Rankings and Recent Performance - The report outlines the top three industries based on the high profitability tracking strategy as non-bank financials, agriculture, and steel [15][16] - The report also details the performance of various strategies, with the S2 strategy (implied sentiment momentum tracking) highlighting mechanical, electric equipment and new energy, and comprehensive sectors as the top three industries [20] Macro Style Rotation Strategy - The macro style rotation strategy identifies the top six industries based on current macro indicators as comprehensive finance, computing, communication, national defense, electronics, and media [24] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic indicators in predicting industry performance, utilizing a multi-factor approach to assess industry exposure to various macroeconomic styles [22][23]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, which is expected to create a more favorable external environment for Chinese assets, enhancing their attractiveness [2] - Multiple institutions, including Invesco and Fidelity International, express optimism about investment opportunities in non-US markets, particularly in China, Japan, and Europe, following the Fed's rate cut [2] - Emerging market equities are viewed as having good investment value, with current valuations being only one-third of developed markets, supported by a weaker dollar and easing monetary policies in the Asia-Pacific region [2] Group 2 - The easing of external constraints is expected to enhance the People's Bank of China's operational flexibility in monetary policy tools, such as MLF/LPR and structural instruments [3] - As the US economy shows signs of weakening and the Fed's independence comes under scrutiny, a gradual shift to a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated, which may lead to a significant increase in foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] - Key investment themes identified by Manulife include high-growth sectors like AI and robotics, sectors benefiting directly from liquidity easing, and industries with improving fundamentals due to policy changes, such as power equipment and chemicals [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant net inflows, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing over HKD 1 trillion in net inflows year-to-date, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a potential record high for the year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Stock Connect has reached HKD 60.8 billion, accounting for 24.5% of the overall market [4]. - In August 2025, the Hong Kong stock market recorded a net inflow of HKD 112.2 billion, marking the ninth highest monthly inflow on record [6]. - The Southbound trading of ETFs has seen an average daily trading volume of HKD 3.8 billion in the first half of 2025, setting a new semi-annual record [6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The financial sector remains the largest holding in the Hang Seng Stock Connect, accounting for 32%, followed by information technology at 20% and consumer discretionary at 16% [6]. - The healthcare sector has seen the largest increase in weight from 3% to 7% year-to-date, while consumer discretionary and information technology sectors have increased by 3 and 2 percentage points, respectively [6]. Group 3: Earnings and Growth Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market has stabilized, with positive earnings growth in the first half of 2025, showing revenue and profit growth rates of 1.9% and 4.6%, respectively [8]. - The sectors of technology, healthcare, and materials are expected to maintain high growth, while some sectors like energy and utilities are still under pressure [8]. - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see a turning point in earnings growth, with expectations for a rebound in previously underperforming sectors [8]. Group 4: Investment Trends - AI remains a key theme in the Hong Kong stock market, with internet stocks expected to benefit significantly [9]. - The demand for AI cloud services is driving revenue growth, with private cloud service providers outpacing state-owned telecom companies for the first time in four years [10].

- The second batch of 14 Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) bond ETFs was established on September 18, 2025, with 13 products reaching the initial fundraising cap of 3 billion yuan each, and the total initial scale of the 14 products exceeding 40.7 billion yuan[14] - The STAR Market bond ETFs are expected to further increase market activity and attract more investor attention and participation as they mature[14] - The China Securities 500 Index (A500) product landscape is also expanding, with multiple A500 index enhancement products established this week, further enriching the investment tools for this index and better meeting the demand for a combination of active management and passive investment[14]

国泰海通证券 | 研究所 刘欣琦 金融组长、非银行金融首席分析师 行业核心洞察 重视配置的力量, 非银估值修复年 价值主张 我们希望能找到的好公司不仅具备确定性增 长的盈利预期,而且希望这种盈利预期是建 立在其客户好的价值体验基础上的,这样的 盈利才更具有持续性。 = (1) 2 : 11 2 21 1 年度代表作 1 . 点击下方图片 查看电话会回放详细议程 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称：重视配置的力量，看好低估值非银股机会；报 告日期：20250727；报告作者：刘欣琦S0880515050001；风险提示：权益市场大幅波动;政策落地 不及预期。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shankao Holdings experienced significant volatility, with a drop of over 70% following a period of substantial gains, highlighting concerns over concentrated shareholding and market reactions to company announcements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Shankao Holdings' stock price surged approximately 150% over the past four months before the recent decline [1]. - From April 16, 2025, to September 1, 2025, the stock price increased by 193.6%, rising from HKD 5.82 to HKD 17.09 [4]. - As of September 17, 2025, the stock price was HKD 14.80, reflecting a 154.3% increase since April 16, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Shareholding Structure - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission reported that 20 shareholders collectively hold about 1.445 billion shares, representing 24% of the issued share capital [3]. - Including two major shareholders who own 68.46%, these shareholders control a total of 92.46% of the company's shares [3]. - Only 4.54 million shares, or 7.54% of the issued share capital, are held by other shareholders, indicating a highly concentrated ownership structure [3]. Group 3: Company Actions and Market Reactions - On September 16, 2025, Shankao Holdings' stock fell by 24.22% after the company announced it was unaware of the reasons behind the stock price and trading volume fluctuations [5]. - Following the announcement of a share buyback plan, the stock price rebounded by 17.37% on September 17, 2025 [6]. - The company plans to repurchase shares at a price not exceeding HKD 17 per share, with a total buyback amount not exceeding USD 100 million [5]. Group 4: Company Overview - Shankao Holdings serves as an important overseas investment and emerging industry platform for Shandong High-Speed Group, with core business activities in industrial investment and licensed financial services [6]. - The company holds significant stakes in Shankao New Energy and Century Internet, owning 42% of the latter [6]. - Shankao Holdings is also a constituent of the Hong Kong Stock Connect and has a weight of 2.27% in the non-bank financial theme index [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent regulatory updates in the non-bank financial sector, specifically the classification evaluation of futures companies, which aims to enhance regulatory effectiveness and promote differentiated development within the industry [5][7] - The report also emphasizes the growth in the scale of equity product distribution, with significant increases in the total assets under management for various fund categories, indicating a robust market environment for fund distribution [7][8] Industry Overview - The futures company classification evaluation regulations were released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, focusing on improving the scoring system and enhancing risk management within the industry [7] - The report notes that the total scale of equity, non-monetary, and stock index funds reached 51.4 trillion yuan, 102 trillion yuan, and 19.5 trillion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 5.89%, 6.95%, and 14.57% compared to the end of 2024 [7] - The report indicates that major indices experienced varying degrees of increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.52% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.10% [7] Company Analysis - The specific company under review, Shichang Co., specializes in the research, production, and sales of automotive fuel systems, particularly plastic fuel tank assemblies [8] - The company has established itself as a "little giant" in the automotive fuel system sector, recognized for its technological advancements and strong customer relationships with major automotive manufacturers [8] - The report projects that Shichang Co. will achieve revenues of 282 million yuan, 406 million yuan, and 515 million yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, with growth rates of -3.50%, 44.24%, and 26.79% respectively [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for plastic fuel tanks, driven by the increasing production and sales of passenger vehicles in China, which are expected to reach 32.9 million units by 2025 [8]

Group 1: Industry Index Pool Construction - The report outlines the construction of an industry index pool that combines investability and representativeness, focusing on passive products tracking strong industry attributes [10][12]. - Since 2020, the scale of industry ETFs has experienced explosive growth, increasing from 85.8 billion yuan at the end of 2019 to over 310 billion yuan by the end of 2020, and approaching 900 billion yuan by August 2025 [10]. - The report categorizes various industry ETFs, highlighting that TMT, financial real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors have surpassed 100 billion yuan in ETF scale [10]. Group 2: Economic Prosperity Investment Practices - The report discusses the calculation of expected ROE growth for industries based on analysts' profit forecasts, comparing two fiscal years (FY1 and FY2) [20][21]. - It emphasizes that the FY2 grouping shows stronger monotonicity in performance compared to FY1, indicating better returns for the former [23][24]. - The backtesting period for the economic prosperity factor spans from January 1, 2018, to September 12, 2025, with a focus on marginal changes in industry index prosperity [27]. Group 3: Economic Trend Resonance Strategy - The economic trend resonance strategy combines fundamental marginal improvements with capital consensus, utilizing trend factors to quantify market sentiment [36][38]. - The constructed economic trend resonance portfolio has achieved an annualized return of 12.33% since 2018, outperforming the CSI 800 index by 11.13% [40][42]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate stands at 64%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.30 [45]. Group 4: Economic Trend and Crowding Avoidance Strategy - The strategy integrates economic trend analysis with crowding avoidance to mitigate risks associated with overheated trading [49]. - The three-dimensional strategy has yielded an annualized return of 12.80% since 2018, exceeding the CSI 800 index by 11.60% [52][54]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate is 62%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.47 [57]. Group 5: Current Industry Characteristics - As of August 2025, the report identifies industries that align with the economic trend resonance and crowding avoidance strategy, including the transportation index, home appliances, livestock, media, and oil and gas sectors [60]. - The expected growth rates for these sectors range from 1.1% to 9.6%, with varying levels of crowding and valuation metrics [60].