Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's recent financial performance shows mixed results, with strong growth in AI and cloud sectors but significant declines in overall revenue and net profit, raising concerns among investors about its e-commerce business [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the second fiscal quarter, Alibaba reported revenue of RMB 247.795 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1]. - Adjusted EBITA fell sharply by 78% to RMB 9.073 billion [1]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 20.99 billion, down 52% year-on-year [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 10.352 billion, a decrease of 72% compared to the previous year [1]. Business Segment Performance - The cloud intelligence group generated revenue of RMB 39.82 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34% [1]. - AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters [1]. Market Reaction - Alibaba's stock price fell over 2% during trading, closing down 1.77% at HKD 155, with a trading volume of HKD 9.88 billion [1]. - Concerns regarding the e-commerce business have increased, particularly after management indicated potential short-term fluctuations in customer management revenue and profits due to intensified competition and user investment [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][5] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY2026Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 10.4 billion yuan, down 72% [1] - The e-commerce segment shows steady growth in monetization rates, with a stable market share in food delivery and potential for improvement in profitability [1][5] - The cloud business exceeded expectations with significant revenue growth driven by strong demand in the AI cloud market, indicating a promising outlook for future growth [1][5] Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for FY2024 to FY2028 are 941.2 billion yuan, 996.3 billion yuan, 1,062.5 billion yuan, 1,168.7 billion yuan, and 1,285.6 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 6%, 7%, 10%, and 10% [2][8] - **Adjusted EBITA**: Expected adjusted EBITA for FY2026 is 117.2 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 32% compared to FY2025 [2][8] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Forecasted Non-GAAP net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 are 106.9 billion yuan, 166.6 billion yuan, and 201.8 billion yuan respectively, with a notable decline of 32% in FY2026 [2][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 5.63 yuan for FY2026, with a PE ratio of 25.5 [2][9] Stock Performance - The stock has shown an absolute performance of 20% over the past 12 months, with a relative performance of -9.8% [4] Valuation - The target price is set at 185 HKD per share, with the current stock price at 158 HKD, indicating potential upside [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W (03690) experienced a significant stock price increase, rising nearly 7% in early trading and currently up 5.85% at HKD 104, with a trading volume of HKD 7.823 billion. This movement is influenced by Alibaba's CFO comments regarding a reduction in investment in Taobao Flash Sales, indicating a potential "temporary truce" in competition [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Meituan is set to hold a board meeting on November 28 to approve its quarterly performance [1]. - Citic Securities previously reported that Meituan's food delivery business losses are expected to peak in the current quarter, with competition intensity easing and subsidies returning to rational levels [1]. - It is anticipated that Meituan's food delivery market share will recover, with losses in the food delivery unit economics (UE) expected to be halved [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Alibaba's CFO indicated that the company's investment in Taobao Flash Sales will reach its peak in the September quarter, with a significant reduction expected in the next quarter due to improved efficiency and unit economics [1]. - The long-term outlook for Meituan's food delivery business includes substantial profit potential from international expansion, which may enhance the company's valuation flexibility [1].

格隆汇11月26日｜澳大利亚家居电商Temple & Webster股价暴跌33%，因销售额未达预期。 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba reported its Q2 FY2026 financial results, showing a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 20.99 billion yuan, down 52% year-over-year [1] Group 1: Revenue Breakdown - Alibaba's China e-commerce segment generated 132.6 billion yuan in revenue, up 16% year-over-year [1] - The International Digital Commerce segment achieved 34.8 billion yuan in revenue, a 10% increase year-over-year [1] - The Cloud Intelligence segment reported 39.8 billion yuan in revenue, growing 34% year-over-year [1] - Other segments saw a revenue decline of 25%, totaling 62.97 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Instant Retail Performance - Instant retail revenue reached 22.9 billion yuan, marking a 60% year-over-year growth, driven by the launch of Taobao Flash Purchase [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Alibaba's China e-commerce business fell to 10.5 billion yuan, a significant 76% decline year-over-year due to heavy investments in instant retail and user experience [2] - The unit economics of Taobao Flash Purchase improved significantly since October, with losses per order halved compared to July and August [2] Group 3: AI Cloud Business - Alibaba Cloud's revenue was 39.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 34% year-over-year increase, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [3] - Capital expenditures for AI and cloud infrastructure totaled approximately 120 billion yuan over the past four quarters, with a quarterly spend of 31.5 billion yuan, up 80.1% year-over-year [3] - The CEO indicated that the company is actively expanding its AI infrastructure and may increase investments if current growth rates continue to outpace server deployment [3]

Macro Economic Group - The report indicates that the US PPI remained stable in September, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 0.1%, slightly below the expected 0.2% [5] - Retail sales in the US showed a disappointing performance in September, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, indicating a weakening consumer spending momentum [5][6] - The report highlights a "K-shaped" recovery in consumer spending, with a decline in auto sales attributed to the expiration of electric vehicle tax credits, alongside a soft job market and low consumer confidence [6] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-share rating to "Sell," lowering the lithium price forecast for the second half of 2026 by 14% to $9,500 per ton due to weak downstream market feedback and slowing inventory replenishment [12] - The report predicts a 12% shortfall in global lithium capacity relative to demand in the second half of 2025, transitioning to a 10% surplus by the second half of 2026 [12] - The report remains optimistic about mid-term lithium demand and price stability, citing a projected 46% growth in energy storage battery demand in 2026 [12] Consumer Group - Bilibili reported Q3 total revenue of 7.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.8%, with adjusted net profit soaring by 233% to 786 million yuan [14][15] - The company achieved a GAAP operating profit of 354 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 66.7 million yuan in the same period last year, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [15] - Advertising revenue grew by 23% year-on-year to 2.57 billion yuan, becoming the core growth engine for the company, while gaming revenue declined by 17% to 1.51 billion yuan due to high base effects from the previous year [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rise in demand for warm products due to a nationwide cold wave, leading to a consumption peak in the "warm economy" [1][2] - The "Warm Season" promotional event launched by Fenqile Mall offers significant discounts on essential winter products, including down jackets, snow boots, and heating appliances, with subsidies on core products reaching up to 1,000 yuan [1] - Fenqile Mall's supply chain ecosystem supports a comprehensive consumer service system, covering various categories to meet the public's winter needs [1] Group 2 - The increase in the "warm economy" reflects a rise in basic livelihood consumption demand, as evidenced by the recent Double Eleven shopping festival, where total online sales reached 1.7 trillion yuan, although daily sales dropped significantly compared to 2022 [2] - During the Double Eleven period, Fenqile Mall reported a 237% year-on-year increase in livelihood consumption transaction volume and a 384% increase in order numbers, with staple foods and daily necessities leading in sales [2] - The company focuses on public essential consumption needs by continuously optimizing its supply chain and enhancing user experience, thereby injecting more convenience and warmth into livelihood consumption [2]

2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.78%报 4126.3 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.50%报 51.08 美元/盎司。美联储理事主张大幅降息，强化市 场宽松预期。俄乌冲突现缓和迹象，但西方长期介入仍存不确定性。美国财政赤 字扩大加剧美元信用担忧。 3. 伦敦基本金属涨跌参半，LME 期镍涨 1.50%报 14920.00 美元/吨，LME 期锡涨 0.83%报 37695.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 0.55%报 10832.50 美元/吨，LME 期锌跌 0.02%报 2999.50 美元/吨，LME 期铅跌 0.13%报 1981.50 美元/吨，LME 期铝跌 0.39%报 2801.00 美元/吨。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准 ...

Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W (3690.HK) experienced a significant intraday increase of 7%, reaching HKD 105.2, influenced by Alibaba's positive updates on its Taobao Flash Sales business [1] Group 1: Alibaba's Business Updates - Alibaba's CEO of the China e-commerce division, Jiang Fan, reported substantial progress in unit economic efficiency (UE) optimization for Taobao Flash Sales, with average losses per order halved since July and August [1] - The proportion of non-tea drink orders has risen to over 75%, and the average order value has seen double-digit growth on a month-over-month basis [1] - Jiang indicated that the first phase of scale expansion for Taobao Flash Sales has concluded, and the business is now entering a second phase focused on efficiency optimization [1] Group 2: Financial Projections and Strategy - Alibaba's CFO, Xu Hong, noted that the third quarter marked a peak in investment for the Flash Sales business, with expectations for a significant reduction in overall investment in the next quarter due to improved efficiency and stable scale [1] - The company will dynamically adjust its investment strategy based on the competitive landscape of the market [1] - Analysts suggest that Alibaba's statements may indicate a "temporary truce" in competitive strategies [1]

Group 1 - Lion Group Holdings (02562) rebounded over 16%, with a year-to-date decline of nearly 80%, currently trading at 5.66 HKD, with a transaction volume of 333 million HKD [1] - The Singapore National Artificial Intelligence Strategy (AISG) is undergoing a significant strategic adjustment, shifting from the Meta model to Alibaba's Tongyi Qwen open-source architecture in its latest Southeast Asian language model project, indicating a key expansion of Chinese open-source AI models globally [1] - Lion Group Holdings, based in Singapore, is an e-commerce solutions platform under Alibaba for Southeast Asia [1] Group 2 - As of November 5, Lion Group Holdings' shareholders deposited stocks into Morgan Stanley Hong Kong Securities, with a market value of 1.291 billion HKD, accounting for 32.27% [1] - On November 21, shareholders deposited stocks into Citibank, with a market value of 428 million HKD, accounting for 15.16% [1]