资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-07 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | | | | | | 20250414 | 2025 ...

今日上午9时，国新办举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预 期"有关情况。 央行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、证监会主席吴清出席发布会。 潘功胜：今年以来货币信贷呈现出数量增加、价格下降、结构优化的特征 中国人民银行行长潘功胜在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，今年以来，人民银行认真贯彻落实中央经济工作会议和《政府工作报告》部署，实施好适度宽松 的货币政策，强化逆周期调节，综合运用多种货币政策工具，服务实体经济高质量发展，为推动经济持续回升向好营造了良好的货币金融环境。从效果上 看，今年以来各项宏观金融数据都比较不错，货币信贷呈现出"数量增加、价格下降、结构优化"的运行特征。从金融市场看，一季度国内金融市场表现良 好。4月以来，尽管面临较大的外部冲击，国内的金融体系仍保持稳健，金融市场展现出较强韧性。人民银行将认真贯彻落实中央决策部署，推动经济高质 量发展，坚定不移推进高水平对外开放，积极参与国际金融治理与合作，维护以规则为基础的国际经济金融秩序。同时，统筹金融开放与安全，探索拓展央 行宏观审慎和金融稳定的功能，坚定维护中国汇市、债 ...

Group 1 - China's macroeconomic policies will become more proactive, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5% by 2025, with a strong start in Q1 2025 showing a 5.4% year-on-year growth [1] - The positive economic outlook is expected to boost market confidence, particularly in sectors closely related to macroeconomic performance such as finance, infrastructure, and consumption [1] - The People's Bank of China and other financial regulatory bodies will introduce a comprehensive financial policy package to stabilize the market and manage expectations [2] Group 2 - The onshore RMB appreciated significantly, rising nearly 600 points to its highest level since November 2024, closing at 7.2169 against the USD, which is seen as a stabilizing factor for the financial market [3] - During the May Day holiday, UnionPay and NetUnion processed 23.439 billion payment transactions amounting to 7.64 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.49% in transaction volume and 3.21% in value [4] - The significant growth in payment transactions from foreign visitors during the holiday indicates a strong recovery in domestic consumption and enhances the attractiveness of China's tourism market [4] Group 3 - Following the May Day holiday, international gold prices surged, with COMEX gold reaching $3,390 per ounce and spot gold surpassing $3,380 per ounce, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties [5] - The rise in gold prices is expected to benefit gold-related companies, enhancing their performance expectations, although it may pressure profit margins for jewelry brands unless they can maintain pricing power [5]

NO.1 央行等部门5月7日上午将介绍"金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况 国务院新闻办公室5月6日消息，国务院新闻办公室将于5月7日上午9时举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银 行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预 期"有关情况，并答记者问。 NO.2 财政部蓝佛安：有信心实现2025年的5%左右增长目标 每经记者 杨建 每经编辑 肖芮冬 ｜2025年5月7日 星期三｜ 2025年5月4日至7日，亚洲开发银行理事会第58届年会在意大利米兰举行。蓝佛安指出，中国是经济全 球化的受益者也是贡献者，近年来对全球经济增长的贡献率保持在30%左右。今年一季度GDP同比增长 5.4%，实现良好开局。中方将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心实现2025年的5%左右增长目标。 中国将继续建设国内统一大市场，扩大高水平对外开放，同世界特别是亚太成员分享中国发展机遇与红 利，携手应对时代挑战，共创亚太美好未来。 NO.3 我国首次海洋性冰川航空探测启动，调查点位海拔超过4700米 据央视新闻报道，5月6日，自然资源部中国地质调查局将在西藏昌都正式开展我国首次海洋性冰川航空 探测，以掌 ...

央行、金融监管总局、证监会三部委定于5月7日9点举行联合发布会， 此次会议是否会推出影响市场走向的重磅新政，成为各界热议焦点。 上一次三部委集体亮相引发市场波动。 2024年9月24日 ，央行、金融监管总局、证监会三部委联合发布预期内的货币政策，包括存量房贷利率调整 等，市场高开后回落。随后发布超预期的政策，为证券基金和保险业提供互换便利工具，以及对上市公司及其控股股东的增持回购给予再贷款支持 等，市场开始大幅上涨， 上证指数收涨4.15% // 降准 降息越来越近？ // 5 月 6 日 晚间中国新闻网预告： 国务院新闻办公室将于 5月7日（星期三）上午9时举行新闻发布会 ，请 中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管 理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况 ，并答记者问。 这次新闻发布会 是否会公布降准降息相关信息，广受市场关注 。 央行副行长邹澜4月28日在国新办新闻发布会上表示： 将根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况， 适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕 ，发挥好货币政策工具箱总量和结构双重功能，创 设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业、稳增长的重点领域精准发力，做好金融支 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report Group 2: Report's Core View - The report predicts that in April 2025, new loans will reach 800 billion yuan, and social financing will be 1.5 trillion yuan. By the end of April, M2 will reach 323.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 7.4%; M1 (new caliber) will have a year - on - year increase of 2.1%; and the social financing growth rate will be 8.8% [2]. - Throughout the year, new loans are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing will expand significantly year - on - year, social financing will increase year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may first rise and then fall, with an end - of - year rate of around 8.3% [3]. - The bond market may fluctuate in Q2. High - tariff shocks are expected to cause the economic growth rate to decline in the second quarter, but the decline may be better than the bond market's expectations. The bond market should focus on the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations. It is recommended to conduct credit risk - taking to obtain coupons, and there may be no trend - based opportunities in the bond market in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - In April, new loans may increase slightly year - on - year. It is estimated that new loans in April will be 800 billion yuan, with individual loans decreasing by 10 billion yuan, corporate credit increasing by 70 billion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans increasing by 20 billion yuan [3]. - Due to the weak new loans in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2024, new loans in the next few quarters may increase year - on - year [3]. M1 and M2 - The new - caliber M1 growth rate is expected to rebound in April, and the M2 growth rate will rise slightly. The new - caliber M1 growth rate in April is expected to be 2.1%, with a month - on - month increase; the old - caliber M1 growth rate is - 0.2%, also with a month - on - month increase. The M2 growth rate in April is expected to be 7.4%, showing a slight increase [3]. Social Financing - The social financing growth rate may rebound significantly in April. It is predicted that the social financing increment in April will be 1.5 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase, mainly from credit, government bonds, and corporate bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of April is expected to be 8.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month [3]. Bond Market - The bond market may fluctuate in Q2. If an agreement is reached between China and the US to reduce tariffs to the beginning - of - the - year level in the next six months, the high point of the 10 - year treasury bond yield this year may still reach 1.9%, and the economy in 2025 is still expected to stabilize. Since tariff negotiations are difficult and may not succeed in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate in the second quarter [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Interest Rate Bond Monthly Report for May: Focus on Opportunities Related to Spread Compression" [1] - Analyst: Liu Lu, Zheng Zichen - Date: May 6, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Since April, global trade uncertainties have intensified, leading to increased risk aversion and asset volatility. Gold prices have risen significantly, while US stocks, bonds, and the dollar have faced pressure. In China, bonds have risen, and the stock market has shown resilience. The current variables in the bond market mainly come from external environment changes and the sequence and intensity of domestic growth - stabilizing policies. It is recommended to hold bonds and wait, and also pay attention to structural valuation opportunities such as the relatively high variety spread of local bonds and the term spread of ultra - long - term treasury bonds, as well as the valuation advantages of 5Y credit bonds, 5Y Agricultural Development Bank bonds, and 7Y National Development Bank bonds [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory PART1: US Dollar Assets are Impacted, and the Domestic Bond Market Finds a New Oscillation Anchor 1.1 Overseas - **US Dollar Assets Volatility**: In April, overseas funds flowed out of the US, causing pressure on US stocks, bonds, and the dollar. Domestic institutional leveraged trading liquidation further exacerbated the volatility of US bonds. The US soft data weakened in April, and then consumer sentiment recovered. Gold strengthened, challenging the safe - haven asset status of the US dollar [10][11] - **Fed's Stance**: The Fed maintains a wait - and - see attitude. Policy uncertainty in the US remains high. Powell waits for the situation to become clearer, while some Fed officials have different stances, with Waller being relatively dovish [12][15] 1.2 Domestic - **Market Review**: In April, the 10 - year treasury bond yield quickly dropped by 15BP and then oscillated around 1.65%. The total amount of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts did not materialize, but the funding rate dropped by 20BP. The stock market briefly declined and then slowly recovered [16] - **Fundamentals**: High - frequency data in April showed overall oscillation, and most commodity prices declined, except for agricultural products [22][24] - **Institutional Behavior** - Big banks' bond - allocation strength has weakened since March, and the net bond - buying scale in April was lower than the seasonal level [31][33] - Rural commercial banks sold short - term bonds and bought long - term bonds in the past two weeks, increasing their duration bets [36][38] - Funds mainly bought credit bonds and reduced duration in the past two weeks, betting on spread trading [40][43] - Insurance companies' bond - buying scale returned to the seasonal level as yields slightly declined in April. They still favored local government bonds due to the high local bond - treasury bond spread [45][50] - Wealth management products increased their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit. The scale decline in March was slightly larger than the seasonal level [52][53] PART2: How Does Deposit Interest Rate Cut Affect the Bond Market? 2.1 Regularity of Large Banks' Deposit Interest Rate Cuts - Since 2022, large banks have cut deposit interest rates 1 - 3 times a year, with the shortest interval being 3 months. Each deposit interest rate cut is accompanied by an LPR cut (usually the deposit interest rate cut comes first, with an interval of less than 2 months). In most cases, the OMO rate is also cut, but the order is not fixed. The decline of 1 - 2Y deposit interest rates is similar to that of OMO and LPR [55] 2.2 Impact on the Bond Market - Interest rate cuts rarely affect the bond market trend alone. When credit - easing policies are concentrated, the funding price is more likely to rise. The 1 - year treasury bond follows the funding price, and its decline is often greater when the funding is loose. The 10 - year treasury bond yield usually declines shortly after the interest rate cut, except when the funding price tightens significantly [57] 2.3 Expectation of Future Cuts - There is a probability of a new round of large - bank deposit interest rate cuts in the second quarter, which may open up room for the central bank to cut interest rates. This is in line with the central bank's concern about the net interest margin and historical patterns [59] PART3: Bond Market Strategy 3.1 Supply Pressure and Policy Expectation - The supply of government bonds in May is large, and there is a certain probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut. The variables in the bond market mainly come from external environment changes and domestic growth - stabilizing policies. Factors that may drive the bond market out of the oscillation in the second quarter include fundamental data, incremental monetary policy implementation, and stock market performance [62][63] 3.2 Bond Market Strategy - It is recommended to focus on opportunities related to spread compression. The variety spread of local bonds and the term spread of ultra - long - term treasury bonds are relatively high. 5Y credit bonds, 5Y Agricultural Development Bank bonds, and 7Y National Development Bank bonds also have certain valuation advantages [4][67]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," which have exceeded market expectations, leading to substantial volatility in financial markets. The average tariff rate for all imported goods in the U.S. has risen to 27%, with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching 146.2% [1][6][20] - The economic effects of tariffs are characterized by "stagflation," with debates surrounding the relative strength of stagnation versus inflation. Tariffs are expected to peak in their impact on inflation and economic growth within 3-4 quarters, with early inflation rates rising more steeply [2][20][74] - The article highlights that if tariff levels remain unchanged, the probability of a U.S. economic recession may significantly increase, with a potential shift from "stagflation" to "recession" starting in the third quarter of the year [20][74] Group 2 - The typical recession path in the U.S. involves overheating, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, credit tightening, and subsequent economic downturns. The current economic structure does not align with historical recession patterns, as private capital expenditure has not shown significant contraction [3][25][34] - The labor market and consumer spending are crucial to the U.S. economy, with rising unemployment rates being a necessary condition for recession. However, without external shocks, increases in unemployment may be temporary [4][44][32] Group 3 - Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. financial markets have experienced significant turmoil, with notable pressure on liquidity. The refinancing pressures in the short term are a primary concern, but the transmission from liquidity shocks to systemic financial pressure remains manageable [5][49][50] - The article emphasizes that while short-term systemic risks in the U.S. financial market should not be overstated, long-term risks related to the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve should be monitored [49][74]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the bond market should focus on the funding situation. The central bank's operations are uncertain, and the level of funding rates is the core variable for whether bond market interest rates can continue to break downward [4]. - The credit bond market sentiment is stable, and the allocation rhythm should be maintained. The new issuance volume decreased significantly in the week of April 28 - May 4, with a large net outflow. Yields generally declined, and spreads showed different trends [4]. - For convertible bonds, operations can gradually become more active. The convertible bond market is stabilizing and showing signs of a rebound. If the equity market sentiment improves, the demand for convertible bond allocation will continue to be released [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1 Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking 1.1 Interest - rate Bonds - In May, the bond market should focus on the funding situation. The 10 - year Treasury bond has moved from the right to the left of the [1.6% - 1.9%] range. The net supply of government bonds in May may reach about 1.7 trillion, bringing uncertainty to the funding situation. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cooled during the May Day holiday, adding uncertainty to the central bank's monetary policy [4][9]. 1.2 Credit Bonds - From April 28 to May 4, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 112 billion yuan, a 79% decrease compared to the previous period due to the May Day holiday. The total repayment was 197.3 billion yuan, also a significant decrease, resulting in a net outflow of 85.3 billion yuan. Yields generally declined, and spreads showed different trends. The turnover rate decreased, and high - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds [4][11]. 1.3 Convertible Bonds - Last week, the equity market showed mixed performance. The convertible bond market declined slightly, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index falling 0.07%. The convertible bond valuation is stabilizing and showing signs of a rebound. Operations can be more active [4][13]. 1.4 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, important data to be released include China's April Caixin Services PMI, April CPI, the US May interest - rate decision, and the Eurozone's April Services PMI [14]. 1.5 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest - rate Bonds - This week, the estimated issuance of interest - rate bonds is 565.1 billion yuan, which is relatively high compared to the same period. Treasury bonds are expected to be 391 billion yuan, local bonds 74.1 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds about 100 billion yuan [14][16]. 2 Interest - rate Bonds Review and Outlook 2.1 Central Bank's Operations and Funding Situation - During the month - end, the central bank increased reverse repurchase operations, with a total net injection of 735.8 billion yuan in the open - market operations for the week [19]. 2.2 Strong Willingness to Hold Bonds for the Holiday - Before the holiday, the PMI data and the funding situation were generally stable, and the enthusiasm for holding bonds for the holiday was high, which contributed to the decline in interest rates, especially for longer - term and high - duration bonds [34]. 3 High - frequency Data - Commodity prices mostly declined. On the production side, the operating rates were divided. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales remained positive, while land transactions decreased. Export indices declined. In terms of prices, crude oil prices decreased, copper and aluminum prices increased, and coal prices were divided [45]. 4 Credit Bonds Review 4.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, downgrades of bond or issuer ratings in the domestic market from April 28 - May 4, but there were overseas rating downgrades of some companies [64][65]. 4.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds decreased significantly, with a large net outflow. The cost of issuing high - grade bonds increased slightly, and the frequency of issuing new AA/AA - grade bonds remained low [4][68]. 4.3 Secondary Trading - Credit bond valuations declined slightly. Short - term spreads narrowed, while medium - and long - term spreads widened passively. The turnover rate decreased, and high - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds [4][73].

Group 1 - The 2025 Yangtze River Delta Local Financial Management Roundtable Conference focused on "Technology Finance" and discussed optimizing regional collaborative innovation ecosystems [1] - Since the first financial roundtable in 2014, the financial offices of the three provinces and one city have promoted market co-construction and regulatory innovation [1] - Financial resources are increasingly gathering in the field of technological innovation, with several cities approved for establishing technology financial reform pilot zones in 2022 [1] Group 2 - Jiangsu is building a financial service system covering the entire lifecycle of technology enterprises, with significant growth in new loans and social financing scale [2] - Shanghai is leveraging its international financial center status to create a comprehensive investment ecosystem and enhance financial support for technology innovation [2] - Hangzhou is focusing on a comprehensive financial support strategy for technology innovation, integrating various financial elements [2] Group 3 - Hefei is enhancing technology financial services and focusing on key areas such as core technology breakthroughs and the transformation of scientific achievements [3] - Jiaxing is introducing specialized technology insurance to provide precise risk protection for technology enterprises [3] Group 4 - The Yangtze River Delta is reshaping industrial height through financial concentration, with significant contributions from leading industries such as integrated circuits and biotechnology [4] - The region has a high concentration of national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises and accounts for a substantial share of A-share listed companies [4] - A collaborative framework agreement was signed among Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hefei, and Jiaxing to promote coordinated technology financial reform [5] Group 5 - The five cities aim to become demonstration zones for technology financial cooperation and innovation over the next five years, enhancing their unique financial functions and industrial positioning [5]