以港股为例，上周四港股情绪指数逼近70%的上限阈值，未来12个月PE估值也回到去年10月前高的水平，更遑论不断创历史新高的贵金属和韩国股市。 近期Warsh提名引发全球资产共振调整。我们统计了全球主要股指和商品今年以来的涨跌幅后发现，1月30日以来的累计调整幅度和年初以来的涨跌幅高 度负相关。 这也意味着近期亚洲股票市场、加密货币和商品等风险显著调整，表面上看是来自Warsh被提名为联储主席的流动性预期冲击，但本质上还是在此前过度 乐观和拥挤的交易背景下，部分投机资金趁利空事件而获利了结。 | 日期/时间 | 分类 | 催化领域 | 内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2月1日 | 产业 | 石油 | 欧佩克+八个产油国就产油政策举行月度会议 | | 2月1日 | 产业 | AI应用 | 百度文心/腾讯元宝分别从1月26日/2月1日开启新春5亿元/10亿元红包活动,阿里千问App 或也将加入红包大战 | | 2月2日 | 经济 | 1 | 美国1月ISM制造业PMI | | 2月3日 | 市场 | AI应用 | Palantir财报 | | 2月4日 | 市场 | AI、创新药 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in Asian stock markets, cryptocurrencies, and commodities are primarily driven by the nomination of Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman, which has impacted liquidity expectations. However, the underlying cause is the prior overly optimistic trading environment, leading speculative funds to take profits amid negative events [1][2]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - The global asset adjustment is correlated with the nomination of Warsh, with a significant negative correlation between the cumulative adjustment since January 30 and the year-to-date performance of major global indices and commodities [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market sentiment index approached the upper limit of 70%, and the future 12-month PE valuation returned to levels seen before October of the previous year, indicating a strong market sentiment [5]. Group 2: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market's rise since the beginning of the year is supported by favorable domestic fundamentals, a "New Year" policy boost, and ample liquidity, which are expected to continue driving the spring market [7]. - Key drivers for the spring market include the verification of performance improvement trends through annual report forecasts, macro data releases in February, and a surge in AI applications, which are anticipated to provide structural guidance for further market development [7]. Group 3: Catalysts and Industry Focus - A series of industry catalysts are scheduled for February, including OPEC meetings, AI application events, and significant earnings reports from major companies, which could influence market dynamics [10]. - The AI application sector is expected to see concentrated catalysts in February, with current levels of crowding deemed reasonable, suggesting an opportunity for increased focus during this fundamental gap period [12]. Group 4: Investment Themes - Investment themes to watch include high-performing technology manufacturing sectors (AI hardware, new energy, pharmaceuticals), price increase chains (oil, chemicals, construction materials), and the Spring Festival consumption chain (tourism, hotels, beverages) [10]. - Non-bank financials, particularly brokers and insurance companies, may have potential for recovery after being negatively impacted by broad ETF outflows, indicating a favorable outlook for these sectors [10].

格隆汇2月2日丨欧佩克+未就3月之后的产量政策提供指引，表明在高度不稳定的地缘政治背景下，该 联盟正保持选择开放。正如广泛预期，该联盟确认将在3月维持产量配额不变（这是为期三个月供应冻 结期的最后一个月），但未透露4月或第二季度的后续计划。DNB分析师表示，"该组织正优先考虑灵 活性而非释放信号，鉴于当前地缘政治不确定性极高，这一做法可以理解。" ...

阳光油砂(02012)发布公告，根据2026年1月13日授予的特别授权发行1.4亿股股份。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Sunshine Oil Sands (02012), announced the issuance of 140 million shares based on a special authorization granted on January 13, 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that geopolitical risk premiums are decreasing as the U.S. engages in negotiations with Iran, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices [1][3] - Brent crude oil prices fell over 7%, trading around $66 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude approached $62 per barrel [1][3] - The recent sell-off in the commodity market, particularly in metals, has also impacted oil prices, with gold prices dropping by 10% and copper prices declining over 5% [1][3] Group 2 - The tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated in January due to Iran's crackdown on protests, which previously pushed oil prices significantly higher [2][4] - The geopolitical situation raised the risk of supply disruptions in about one-third of global oil supply regions, diverting attention from the increasing oversupply in the global oil market [2][4] - Despite recent oil price increases, OPEC and its partners have approved a plan to maintain stable production levels in March, marking the final phase of a three-month production freeze [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have dropped by 5%, leading to significant pre-market declines in the stock prices of major U.S. energy companies [1] Group 1: Company Stock Performance - Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) shares fell by 3.1% [1] - ConocoPhillips (COP.US) shares decreased by 2.6% [1] - Halliburton (HAL.US) stock dropped by 4.1% [1] - Schlumberger (SLB.US) shares declined by 2.9% [1] - ExxonMobil (XOM.US) saw a decrease of 1.5% in its stock price [1] - Chevron (CVX.US) shares fell by 1.7% [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points, marking the largest single-day drop since April 7, 2025 [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.69% to 13824.35 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.46% to 3264.11 points [3] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 260.69 billion, a decrease of 255.8 billion from the previous trading day [3] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 4465 stocks declined, while only 741 stocks rose, indicating a broad market sell-off [3] - The median decline across all stocks was 2.15%, reflecting a simultaneous drop in both volume and price [3] Sector Performance - Only two sectors, electric grid equipment and the liquor industry, saw gains, with the liquor sector's core stocks performing particularly well [4] - The banking sector attempted to stabilize the market but ultimately closed down by 0.26% [4] - The most significant declines were seen in cyclical stocks, particularly precious metals, with declines in mining, coal, non-ferrous metals, steel, and oil sectors, many of which experienced drops close to 5% [4] Commodity Market Impact - The commodity market experienced extreme volatility, with gold prices plummeting to $4559 per ounce, a drop of 3.83%, and oil prices falling by 4.88% [5] - Silver prices also fell to $73.15 per ounce, down by 6.81%, indicating a chain reaction affecting related A-share sectors [5] Economic Indicators - Recent PMI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed a comprehensive decline in economic activity, with manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite business indices all falling below the "50 boom-bust line," indicating a slowdown compared to the end of last year [5] - The real estate and construction materials sectors weakened significantly, influenced by a reported loss of 82 billion from Vanke, compounding the market's challenges [5] Future Market Outlook - The current market downturn is seen as a potential opportunity for the upcoming Spring Festival market rally, with expectations for the index to form a new range-bound trading pattern [6] - The core support logic is based on the prior cooling of large blue-chip stocks under "national team" regulation, which has mitigated some risks [6] - Blue-chip valuations are at historical lows, suggesting limited downside potential for the index, as evidenced by the stable performance of major liquor stocks and the four major banks [6]

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 地缘局势驱动，油价谨慎追高 请阅读正文后的声明 月度报告 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 行业 原油月报 日期 2026 年 2 月 2 日 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图3：WTI远期曲线（$/bbl） 图4：Brent远期曲线($/bbl) 数 ...

往期推荐 腾讯"元宝分10亿"活动2月1日0点正式开启，用户最高可领万元现金红 包，官方攻略发布 亚马逊官宣裁撤1.6万个职位 当天，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格一度跌至每桶62.30美元，4月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格一度跌至每桶66.30美元，与前一交易日 收盘价相比跌幅均超过3%。 分析人士认为，随着市场对美国可能对伊朗发动军事打击的预期减弱，投资者卖出多头头寸，油价随之回调 来源：新华社 记者：刘亚南 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 受地缘政治因素影响，纽约原油期货价格2月1日开始新一周交易后出现显著下跌行情。 ...