24日周一，美股延续反弹势头，交易员加大对美联储12月降息的押注，标普500指数期货上涨0.5%。 纽约联储主席Williams上周五表态称近期降息仍有可能，为市场注入乐观情绪。欧洲斯托克50期货上涨0.8%。与此同时，比特币在经历持续抛售 后月内表现创2022年以来最差，周一延续疲软走势。印尼指标股指一度上涨 1%，创下8499.716点的历史新高。 市场关注焦点转向12月美联储政策决定，目前交易员定价降息概率已超过60%，较此前不足30%的水平大幅反弹。 美联储官员表态推升降息预期 比特币周一延续疲软，此前经历持续抛售使该代币有望创下自2022年以来最差月度表现。周日短暂反弹超4%后，这一最大加密货币周一小幅走 低，交易价格在86800美元左右。交易员关注85200美元作为关键支撑位。 标普500指数期货上涨0.5%。纳斯达克100期货上涨0.7%。 欧洲斯托克50期货上涨0.8%。 韩国首尔综指收盘跌0.2%，报3846.06点。 印尼指标股指一度上涨 1%，创下8499.716点的历史新高。 美元现货指数变化不大。 日元下跌0.2%，至156.68美元。 比特币下跌1.3%，报86807.01美元。 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices are expected to see the largest weekly decline since late June, with Brent crude trading around $64 per barrel, down approximately 8% this week, and West Texas Intermediate below $61 per barrel [1] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is anticipated to address concerns over oversupply, with expectations of returning idle capacity [1] - Preliminary signs of global supply surplus have emerged in the Middle East, with the International Energy Agency forecasting record levels of oversupply next year, partly due to the return of OPEC+ production [4] Group 2 - In September, OPEC increased its daily production by 400,000 barrels, officially ending the production cuts implemented in 2023 [4] - Concerns about a potential long-term government shutdown in the U.S. may negatively impact the economy and suppress fuel demand [4] - Despite the oversupply concerns, worries about potential disruptions to Russian supply due to U.S. intelligence support to Ukraine have limited further declines in oil prices [4]

Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - President Trump announced a new round of tariffs on various imported products, effective October 1, including 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks, 30% on imported furniture, and 100% on patented and branded drugs [1] - The announcement triggered a risk-off sentiment in global markets, with major Asian stock indices declining, particularly Japan and South Korea [1][2] - The new tariffs added uncertainty to an already tense market environment, as investors were closely monitoring upcoming inflation reports for clues on future interest rate movements [1] Group 2: Impact on Asian Markets - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell approximately 0.6% to 45,478 points, with significant declines in pharmaceutical stocks, including a 5.2% drop for Sumitomo Pharma and a 3.9% drop for Chugai Pharmaceutical [2] - The South Korean KOSPI index dropped 2.5% to 3,384.58 points, marking its third consecutive day of decline amid growing concerns over prolonged tariff negotiations with the U.S. [4] - Other markets showed weakness, with the Indian BSE Sensex index down 0.7%, while the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index managed a slight increase of 0.2% [4] Group 3: U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a three-day decline prior to Trump's tariff announcement, primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic data that raised doubts about the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts [4] - The strong economic performance has led to skepticism regarding the continuation of rate cuts, which have been a significant driver of U.S. stock market gains this year [4] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 98.36, while the euro rose by 0.1% to 1.1680 [4] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Despite the overall market downturn, oil prices rose, with Brent crude futures reaching $69.67 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude up 0.3% to $64.59 per barrel [9] - The increase in oil prices was driven by geopolitical tensions and an unexpected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, pushing benchmark prices to their highest levels since August 1 [12]

Group 1: Market Movements - The European Stoxx 50 index opened flat, while the European defense sector rose by 2.8% [1][6] - The Saudi stock market increased by 5% due to potential easing of ownership restrictions, with the banking sector index surging by 9%, marking a record high [1][6] - Asian markets saw a slight uptick, driven by Alibaba's commitment to increase AI investments, boosting Chinese tech stocks [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Geopolitical tensions have led to rising oil prices, with Brent crude nearing $68 per barrel [1][8] - Spot gold maintained a high level at $3,775 per ounce, while the dollar index rose [1][6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Disagreements among Federal Reserve officials have intensified regarding the policy outlook, with some expressing concerns over labor market risks and others focusing on inflation pressures [2] - Fed Chair Powell warned of ongoing risks in the labor market and inflation, indicating a challenging path for policymakers considering further easing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The combination of a moderate inflation report and signs of a cooling labor market has led to significant gains on Wall Street, with speculation that the Federal Reserve will implement its first rate cut of the year next week [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve Policy - The recent economic data indicates a shift in the Federal Reserve's focus towards maximizing employment, as evidenced by a significant rise in initial jobless claims, overshadowing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report [2]. - Analysts believe that while inflation data has not completely cooled, it is insufficient to prevent the Federal Reserve from addressing the weak employment outlook [2][6]. - The futures market shows a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with a 90% chance of two additional cuts later this year [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Global Impact - Asian stock markets have followed the upward trend of U.S. markets, with Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's KOSPI indices reaching historical highs, driven by optimism surrounding AI-related earnings growth [1][7]. - The Nikkei index rose by 3.7% this week, while the KOSPI index also saw significant gains [1][7]. - The anticipated easing from the Federal Reserve is influencing global capital markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices also experiencing gains [5][7]. Group 3: Divergence in Central Bank Policies - In contrast to the Federal Reserve's anticipated easing, the European Central Bank has maintained a cautious stance, keeping interest rates unchanged and indicating that its policy is in a "good position" [9]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank in December are currently low, at about 20% [9].

Group 1 - Asian stock markets are buoyant following weak U.S. employment data, with expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The MSCI Asia Index rises, led by Japan, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also show slight increases due to anticipated Fed actions [1] - Chinese stock markets, however, experience a decline of over 2% due to concerns over a $1.2 trillion margin financing event, prompting potential tightening of monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The bond market remains favorable as traders expect two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year [3] - Global bond yields decline in response to falling U.S. Treasury yields, with non-farm payroll data being a critical indicator for future monetary policy [3] - Gold prices have seen a drop after seven consecutive days of increases, although long-term trends indicate structural support from central banks [3] Group 3 - Brent crude oil prices fall to $67 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate drops below $64, with discussions of "oversupply" rather than "scarcity" emerging [5] - OPEC+ considers increasing production, which seems counterintuitive given the current market conditions, as supply growth outpaces demand absorption [5] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, complicate the oil market, with traders noting that oil continues to flow to China and India despite sanctions [6] Group 4 - The market shows a divergence: stock markets are buoyed by Fed's accommodative policies, gold receives support from central banks, while oil struggles under supply surplus pressures [6] - Liquidity remains a dominant force in the market, but its distribution is uneven across different asset classes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global markets, focusing on the upcoming U.S. labor market data and its potential impact on economic policies and investor sentiment. Group 1: U.S. Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, along with job vacancy data and private sector employment figures [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 10.4%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 89.6% [7] - Analysts suggest that the U.S. economy is no longer performing as strongly as in the past decade, which may justify the weakening of the dollar [7] Group 2: European Market Performance - European stock markets saw a slight increase, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.2% [2] - The CAC40 index in France remained stable after a 3.3% decline due to political and fiscal concerns [2] Group 3: Currency Movements - The offshore RMB has appreciated nearly 1000 basis points against the USD since August, and about 3000 basis points since early April [9] - Hedge funds are increasingly betting on the continued strength of the RMB against the USD, with a focus on options that could see the RMB reach 7 or higher by year-end [9] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Global benchmark Brent crude oil rose by 1% amid concerns over potential supply disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [12] - The U.S. labor market report is expected to reflect the health of the U.S. economy and test investor confidence in potential interest rate cuts [15] - The weakening dollar has made oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies, potentially increasing demand [16]

Group 1 - Oil prices have stabilized after a recent increase, with Brent crude nearing $68 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate above $63, reflecting a nearly 3% rise last week [1] - Traders are closely monitoring supply tensions and the overall sentiment in risk assets following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's indication of a potential rate cut next month [1] - The U.S. has threatened to double tariffs on all imports from India to 50% in retaliation for India's purchase of Russian oil, while Indian diplomats state that local refineries will continue to buy crude from Moscow before the tariffs take effect [1] Group 2 - Following Powell's remarks, risk assets, including commodities, are expected to potentially rise on Monday, benefiting from economic stimulus and a weaker dollar [1]

Group 1 - South Korea has committed to purchasing $100 billion worth of U.S. energy products as part of a trade agreement to mitigate the impact of a 15% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Korean imports [3][4] - The actual implementation of this energy agreement faces significant challenges, as South Korean refiners have already been gradually shifting towards U.S. crude oil sources over the years [4][5] - Data from Kpler indicates that imports of WTI Midland crude oil from the U.S. to South Korea have increased from 283,000 barrels per day in 2020 to 465,000 barrels per day projected for 2025, but total crude oil imports remain stable at 2.8 to 3 million barrels per day [4][5] Group 2 - The South Korean refining system is primarily designed to process heavier crude oils from the Middle East, making a significant shift to U.S. light crude oil challenging without impacting operational efficiency and profitability [5][6] - Major South Korean refineries, such as SK Energy's Ulsan refinery, are blending WTI with heavier crude oils from Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia to maintain full production capacity [5][6] - The current strategy for South Korea involves marginally increasing U.S. crude oil imports while maintaining traditional reliance on heavier crude from the Persian Gulf, creating a dilemma between satisfying U.S. demands and preserving the domestic energy system [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing cautious sentiment as investors' bets on an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve are cooling down, with expectations for a September rate cut dropping from 90% to 70% [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Several Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, diminishing market expectations for an immediate rate cut, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stating she would not support easing policy if a decision were required immediately [2]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that only one rate cut this year is appropriate, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid emphasizes that inflation risks currently outweigh labor market risks [2]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledges some positive inflation data but warns that it could be a temporary phenomenon, contributing to a hawkish outlook [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - Mixed economic data complicates the Fed's decision-making, with initial jobless claims increasing, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, while the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing activity has risen to its fastest pace since 2022, showcasing economic resilience [5]. - European major stock indices opened lower, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.30%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.15%, and France's CAC40 down 0.19% [5]. - The Japanese 30-year government bond yield reached a new high of 3.21%, marking the highest level since its introduction in 1999 [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Analyst Insights - Analysts warn that market expectations may be overly optimistic regarding a dovish shift from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with some predicting a cautious, data-driven stance from the Fed [6]. - If Powell maintains a neutral or hawkish position regarding a September rate cut, it could lead to further strengthening of the dollar, as investors seem to have priced in a dovish outlook [6]. - In individual stock movements, tech giant Nvidia's shares fell approximately 1.9% in alternative trading [6].