在上周上涨之后，油价趋于稳定，交易员们密切关注供应方面的紧张局势以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威 尔上周五发表讲话暗示下月可能重新降息后风险资产的整体情绪。布伦特原油价格接近每桶 68 美元， 上周上涨近 3%，而西德克萨斯中质原油价格高于 63 美元。美国威胁要将对印度所有进口商品的关税 提高一倍至 50%，以报复印度购买俄罗斯 石油。在周三关税生效之前，印度外交官表示，当地炼油厂 将继续从莫斯科购买原油。在鲍威尔周五发表讲话暗示下月可能重新降息之后，包括 大宗商品在内的 风险资产周一可能继续上涨。原油可能会从经济活动的刺激以及美元走弱中获益。 ...

韩国承诺增购美国原油为何恐难兑现？ 这使得韩国陷入两难境地：要么通过购买无法完全消纳的美国原油来取悦其最重要的盟友，要么维持本 国能源体系的运行逻辑而承受更多贸易报复风险。实践中最可能出现的结果是，韩国炼油企业将小幅增 加美国原油采购，把多余的西德克萨斯中质原油与中东原油进行混合调配——这种折中方案虽能保障炼 厂生产平衡，却未能满足美国的预期。无论采取哪种方式，妥协的代价都相当高昂。韩国的处境令人辛 酸，同时也在提醒我们：尽管政客们欲强力达成贸易协议，却无法改写炼油行业的经济规律与运行法 则。 翻译 | 陈依然（微信部） 审校 | 张 颜（微信部） 编辑 | 陈依然（微信部） 【Oilprice网 8月23日报道】 作为美国十大贸易伙伴国之一，韩国已成为华盛顿关税政策改革中最引人瞩目的目标之一。经过数月 的"拉锯式"外交谈判，美国最终宣布自8月7日起对韩国进口商品征收15%的关税——虽较最初提议的 25%有所下调，但仍将对韩国这个亚洲第四大经济体造成冲击。作为交换条件，首尔方面同意加大对美 国项目的投资力度，并承诺采购价值1000亿美元的美国能源产品，该协议旨在缓解关税措施带来的冲 击。 然而，这项能源协议的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing cautious sentiment as investors' bets on an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve are cooling down, with expectations for a September rate cut dropping from 90% to 70% [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Several Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, diminishing market expectations for an immediate rate cut, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stating she would not support easing policy if a decision were required immediately [2]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that only one rate cut this year is appropriate, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid emphasizes that inflation risks currently outweigh labor market risks [2]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledges some positive inflation data but warns that it could be a temporary phenomenon, contributing to a hawkish outlook [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - Mixed economic data complicates the Fed's decision-making, with initial jobless claims increasing, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, while the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing activity has risen to its fastest pace since 2022, showcasing economic resilience [5]. - European major stock indices opened lower, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.30%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.15%, and France's CAC40 down 0.19% [5]. - The Japanese 30-year government bond yield reached a new high of 3.21%, marking the highest level since its introduction in 1999 [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Analyst Insights - Analysts warn that market expectations may be overly optimistic regarding a dovish shift from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with some predicting a cautious, data-driven stance from the Fed [6]. - If Powell maintains a neutral or hawkish position regarding a September rate cut, it could lead to further strengthening of the dollar, as investors seem to have priced in a dovish outlook [6]. - In individual stock movements, tech giant Nvidia's shares fell approximately 1.9% in alternative trading [6].

Group 1 - Oil prices in Asia fell due to OPEC+ agreeing to significantly increase production, raising concerns about global oversupply [1] - Brent crude oil prices dropped to around $69 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude approached $67 per barrel [1] - OPEC+ approved an increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 2 - Short-term demand fluctuations do not alter the long-term logic of the aviation industry, suggesting a contrarian investment approach in aviation [2] - The Chinese aviation industry has a long-term growth logic, with expectations for ticket price marketization and a recovery in supply-demand dynamics [2] - The aviation supply has entered a low growth phase, but the medium-term growth trend remains stable, with oil price declines benefiting profitability recovery [2] Group 3 - Relevant Hong Kong stocks in the aviation sector include China National Aviation (00753), Southern Airlines (01055), and Eastern Airlines (00670) [3] - Private jet manufacturer mentioned is Cirrus (02507) [3]

Group 1 - International oil prices have seen a slight increase due to optimistic trade sentiments, with traders closely monitoring the progress of negotiations between the US and its trade partners, as well as the upcoming OPEC+ meeting [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the sustainability of the recent price increase may be short-lived, especially with OPEC+ expected to agree on a significant increase in supply quotas for August [1][2] - The latest data indicates a weekly increase in US crude oil inventories by 3.8 million barrels, marking the first weekly rise since May [1][2] Group 2 - The market is currently focused on the OPEC+ meeting, which is anticipated to have a major impact on oil production levels for August, leading to cautious trading behavior ahead of the long weekend in the US [2] - Despite the increase in US crude oil inventories, the storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, has seen a decline in inventory for the fourth consecutive week, reaching the lowest level for this time of year since 2014 [2] - Market indicators show strong signs, with ongoing heatwaves and the US driving season boosting demand, as evidenced by the Brent crude near-term price spread of $1.19 per barrel [2]

Group 1 - Despite the implementation of tariffs by President Donald Trump, inflation shows signs of cooling, but ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly Israel's attacks on Iran, pose risks to oil prices and inflation, potentially hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [1][3] - Oil prices surged approximately 6% on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate reaching $72.11 per barrel and Brent crude at $73.46 per barrel, following Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] - The recent consumer and producer price index data released earlier in the week was below expectations, raising hopes for greater interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year, but these hopes diminished after the escalation of conflict [1][2] Group 2 - Iran has retaliated with drone strikes and has canceled new talks with U.S. officials regarding sanctions relief in exchange for concessions on its nuclear program, indicating a potential for prolonged conflict in the region [2] - Analysts suggest that if Israel were to target Iran's oil production and export facilities or if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike by $20 per barrel or more, significantly impacting inflation [3] - A rise in oil prices to between $80 and $100 per barrel could increase inflation rates in developed markets by 1.0 percentage point, leading to cautious monetary policy from central banks, including the Federal Reserve [3]

Core Points - The article discusses the impact of tariff uncertainties on the market, highlighting a slight increase in the US dollar and mixed performance in European stock indices [1][5] - A legal challenge to Trump's tariff agenda has been reported, with a US appellate court reinstating the tariff policy, providing the Trump administration with some relief [1][2] - Concerns about "stagflation and tariffs" are causing a decline in market risk appetite [1][2] Market Performance - European stock indices opened mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.02%, while the German DAX rose 0.1% and the UK FTSE 100 increased by 0.24% [3][5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield remained stable at 4.41% [4][5] - The S&P 500 futures showed little change, while the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.1% [5] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index increased by 0.21% to 99.54 points, while the euro fell by 0.2% against the dollar to 1.1349 [5][8] - Gold prices decreased by 0.5% to $3,295.62 per ounce, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 0.2% to $60.79 per barrel [5]

Group 1 - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi downplayed the prospects of breakthroughs in nuclear negotiations with the U.S., stating that no formal proposals have been received, leading to an increase in oil prices [1] - Brent crude oil rose over 1% to above $65, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to above $62, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical news [1][3] - The International Energy Agency reiterated that global production growth is expected to exceed demand growth this year and next, potentially leading to oversupply in the market [1] Group 2 - Westpac Banking Corp's Robert Rennie indicated that a potential agreement could increase Iranian exports by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day, which is not significant, maintaining a price range of $60 to $65 for Brent crude in the coming weeks [2] - Israeli attacks on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen have raised concerns about broader regional conflicts, contributing to rising oil prices [2] - Oil prices have increased for the second consecutive week due to easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, despite a decline of over 10% this year due to trade uncertainties and OPEC+ production increases [2]