丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨招商蛇口（001979.SZ） [Table_Title] 周期压力集中释放，经营表现边际改善 ——招商蛇口 2025 年业绩预告点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 业绩方面，公司 2025 年周期压力集中释放，但仍实现盈利，若后续迎来景气拐点，业绩或有 较大弹性。经营方面，公司 2025 年销售规模排名提升至行业第四，拿地强度保持相对积极， 且公司发行优先股方案有序推进，资产负债表持续优化，综合竞争力有望保持行业前列。公司 表观 PE 偏高，但实际 PB 相对较低，估值修复潜力较大，维持"买入"评级。 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490522080002 SFC：BUV416 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 招商蛇口（001979.SZ） cjzqdt11111 风险提示 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 2026-02-05 公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a significant decline in net profit for 2025, with expected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 1.005 to 1.254 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 69% to 75% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 1.005 and 1.254 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 154 to 231 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 91% to 94% [1] - The decline in net profit is attributed to impairment provisions for real estate projects, reduced delivery scale of projects, and decreased investment income from joint ventures [2] - The company expects continued pressure on revenue performance in the short to medium term, with gross margins at a low point [2] Group 2: Sales and Market Position - The company achieved sales of 196 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 10.6%, but improved its ranking to 4th in the industry [3] - The average selling price increased by 16.8% to 27,371 yuan per square meter, while land acquisition amounted to 93.8 billion yuan, up 92.8% [3] - The land acquisition intensity improved significantly to 48%, with 89% of land purchases concentrated in core first and second-tier cities [3] Group 3: Financial Health and Strategy - The company maintains a low leverage level, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.0% and a net debt ratio of 55.3% as of Q3 2025 [3] - The average financing cost was 2.84%, the lowest in the industry, indicating a strong credit position [3] - The company plans to issue up to 78.405 billion yuan in preferred shares to optimize its balance sheet, with funds allocated to 11 real estate projects in major cities [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in performance if the market conditions improve, with projected net profits of 1.06 billion, 1.29 billion, and 1.93 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [4] - The potential for valuation recovery is significant if the industry experiences a turnaround, despite current high apparent PE ratios due to impairment pressures [4]

李宇嘉（广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员） 今年1月，楼市并未出现春节前季节性转淡的走势，反而是"淡季不淡"甚至创出阶段性新高。克而瑞数 据显示，2026年1月全国重点13城二手房成交面积环比上升16%，同比增长33%，相比上年月均增长 18%。热点城市热度更明显，北京二手房网签连续三个月稳定在1.4万套以上，上海二手房交易创5年同 期新高，深圳二手房中介签约创下近10个月新高。 除了交易量反弹外，1月份的楼市还有几个特征，一是并未出现过去反弹时期交易和挂牌"双攀升"的走 势，而是"交易上升、挂牌下降"的健康态势。机构统计的京沪深二手住房挂牌量相比去年12月均有不同 程度的下降。二是二手住房价格下跌的势头得到缓解。中指百城数据显示，1月二手住宅均价环比下跌 0.85%，跌幅较上月收窄了0.12个百分点。 当然，1月份新房市场表现相对弱于二手房市场。主要原因在于，开发商冲刺全年业绩结束，性价比高 的热销房源供应下降、促销有所减弱。 根据各方机构和住建部门网签数据，将一手房和二手房加总来看，一线城市总的住房交易量同比2025年 1月份，增幅在8%-12%，二线热点城市也类似，呈现整体交易稳定的态势。1月份二手房交 ...

李宇嘉（广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员） 当然，1月份新房市场表现相对弱于二手房市场。主要原因在于，开发商冲刺全年业绩结束，性价比高 的热销房源供应下降、促销有所减弱。 由此，这有利于二手房和新房、刚需和改善的良性循环。受益于此，加上节后追求"开门红"业绩，新房 市场也将在春节后惯性回暖。但要注意的是，尽管有的城市二手房挂牌量有所下降，但其中有季节性撤 牌（春节后再挂牌）的因素。同时，即便挂牌量回落，但整体挂牌规模依旧在历史高位，二手房交易依 旧存在议价空间（只是议价空间收窄，降价卖房仍是主流）。 对新房市场来说，节后交易回升是确定性的，但置换链条循环的问题，还是要引起重视。以上海为例， 2025年200万总价以下的二手房交易占比上升，但200万到1000万总价中间各个价格段的交易占比都在下 根据各方机构和住建部门网签数据，将一手房和二手房加总来看，一线城市总的住房交易量同比2025年 1月份，增幅在8%-12%，二线热点城市也类似，呈现整体交易稳定的态势。1月份二手房交易超预期， 显示楼市预期开始好转。 同时，在2025年下半年以来这一轮调整后，很多区域二手住房价趋于友好。比如，广州天河北部分老旧 小区二 ...

Group 1 - The company New Xunjie is a subsidiary of Suzhou New District High-tech Industry Co., Ltd., established on October 13, 2021, with a registered capital of 20 million yuan [1] - New Xunjie will receive capital increases of 780 million yuan and 520 million yuan from its shareholders through a debt-to-equity swap, which will raise its registered capital to 1.32 billion yuan [1][5] - The project site for New Xunjie is located in Changzhou, covering an area of 87,492 square meters, with a phase one sales rate of 92.70% as of December 31, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The board of directors approved the capital increase proposal with a unanimous vote of 9 in favor, with no opposition or abstentions [2] - The valuation report indicates that New Xunjie's total equity value is assessed at -267.19 million yuan, with an increase of 14.20 million yuan compared to the book value, resulting in a 5.05% appreciation [5] - The capital increase will optimize New Xunjie's capital structure, reduce its debt ratio, and enhance its risk resistance without significantly impacting the company's cash flow [5]

（来源：天津日报） 针对业主的投诉，南开区房地产市场服务中心相关工作人员回复，日兴雅苑项目对外出售的底商已于 2025年1月3日依法取得了《天津市商品房销售许可证》。获批销售房屋的可售范围不包含小区内园林景 观部分（即市民诉求中的亲水平台），亲水平台属于小区公共部位，为全体业主共有。开发企业也向服 务中心承诺，出售的房屋均不包含小区园林景观部分。 该工作人员称，亲水平台作为公共部位，产权归全体业主，未来购买底商的买家同样作为小区业主，也 有权享用公共区域，但"不能独享"。此前在一些房产中介的宣传材料中，确实发现了夹带"底商独享亲 水平台"等不准确表述的情况，目前相关视频等资料已被要求下架。 记者手记： 新建小区的规划承诺，直接关系到购房者的信任与市场的健康秩序。亲水平台"一景双卖"的风险警示开 发商，在追求商业利益的同时，绝不能模糊公共配套与专属权益的边界。规划图纸上的"共享美景"若在 现实中悄然缩水，损害的不仅是业主的切身权益，更是市场诚信的基石。这要求监管部门将关口前移， 强化从规划审批到销售承诺的全链条闭环监督，确保开发商的宣传与交付标准、公共产权的界定始终清 晰一致。 业主李先生介绍，在购置房产时开发 ...

如果仅用一个词来展望2026年的房地产市场发展，仍应是"转型"。 2026年，我国房地产转型路径更加明晰。我们将加快构建房地产发展新模式，积极推进城市更新，以更 大力度推动"好房子"建设。房地产发展进一步回归到满足人民对美好居住生活需要的初心和使命，房地 产发展新动能在转型中逐步形成。 着力稳定房地产市场 我国房地产市场正在经历深度调整，已经由需求旺盛转变为结构性供大于求，新建住房需求不可能回到 过去高峰时的规模。我们要准确把握房地产市场供求关系的重大变化。 也应该看到，我国新型城镇化仍在持续推进，城市存量优化调整也有广阔空间，人民群众对高品质住房 充满期待，房地产高质量发展仍然有较大潜力。二手房交易占比上升是今后一个时期的趋势，应把新房 市场和二手房市场作为一个整体来看待。 房地产发展将牢牢抓住让人民群众安居这个基点，处理好当前和长远、顶层设计和因城施策、市场和保 障、租赁和购买、增量和存量、促发展和防风险的关系，坚持政策完善和改革创新并举，确保新旧模式 转换平稳有序。 2025年底召开的中央经济工作会议强调着力稳定房地产市场，为促进房地产市场平稳健康发展、防范化 解房地产风险提供了方向指引。 着力稳定房地 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600683 证券简称：京投发展 公告编号：临2026-011 京投发展股份有限公司股票交易风险提示公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要提示： ● 公司股票于2026年2月2日、2月3日、2月4日连续三个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%， 根据《上海证券交易所交易规则》的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动。公司于2026年2月5日披露了 《京投发展股份有限公司关于股票交易异常波动的公告》（临2026-010）。2026年2月5日，公司当日股 票价格以涨停价收盘，鉴于公司股票连续多日涨幅较大，敬请广大投资者注意交易风险，理性决策，审 慎投资。 ● 公司主营业务、生产经营情况以及经营业绩与前期披露的信息相比未发生重大变化。公司预计2025年 年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-123,000万元至-102,500万元。 ● 公司不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息，不存在影响公司股票交易价格异常波动的重大事项。 ● 公司敬请广大投资者注意二级市场交 ...

Group 1 - The core objective is to ensure stable and healthy development of the real estate market in the region by 2025 through various initiatives aimed at guaranteeing housing delivery, promoting consumption, enhancing quality, and strengthening safeguards [1] - A dedicated task force has been established to ensure timely completion of housing delivery tasks, with a "double supervision" mechanism to enhance accountability among local authorities and enterprises [1] - To stimulate housing consumption, a series of supportive policies have been introduced, including a total of 330 million yuan in subsidies for housing purchases and an increase in personal housing provident fund loan limits from 800,000 yuan to 1.2 million yuan, benefiting over 6,400 households [1] Group 2 - The focus is on improving housing quality for residents, with a joint initiative from multiple departments to enhance residential standards, emphasizing safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence [1] - By 2025, over 3,300 units of affordable housing are planned to commence construction, with a priority system established to meet the housing needs of low- and middle-income families [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Suzhou New District High-tech Industry Co., Ltd., is planning to increase capital in its subsidiary, Changzhou Xinjunjie Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., through a debt-to-equity swap to optimize its capital structure and reduce the debt ratio [2][6]. Group 1: Investment Overview - The subsidiary, Xinjunjie Company, was established on October 13, 2021, with a registered capital of 20 million yuan, and is primarily owned by Suzhou Xinchai Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. with a 60% stake [2]. - The capital increase will involve a total of 130 million yuan, with Suzhou Xinchai contributing 78 million yuan and Changzhou Lujin Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. contributing 52 million yuan [2][10]. - After the capital increase, the registered capital of Xinjunjie Company will rise to 132 million yuan, while Suzhou Xinchai's ownership percentage will remain at 60% [2]. Group 2: Financial and Valuation Details - The valuation report from Jiangsu Tiandi Heng'an Real Estate Asset Appraisal Co., Ltd. indicates that the total equity value of Xinjunjie Company is -26,719.18 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 1,420.02 million yuan from the book value, resulting in a 5.05% appreciation [9]. - The agreed capital increase price is set at 1 yuan per registered capital [9]. Group 3: Impact on the Company - This capital increase is expected to enhance the capital structure of Xinjunjie Company, lower the debt ratio, and improve its risk resistance capabilities [9]. - The debt-to-equity swap will not involve new cash contributions, thus not significantly impacting the company's cash flow [9].