Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has experienced a high-level retreat in the first two months of 2025, underperforming the market by 11.8 percentage points, ranking last among all industry indices [4][14]. - The coal price is expected to stabilize and gradually recover due to improved industrial demand, slowing production growth, and reduced import expectations [4][29]. Group 1: Coal Sector Review - In the first two months of 2025, the coal sector has declined by 10.0%, ranking 30th out of 30 in the industry indices [4][14]. - The sub-sectors of thermal coal, coking coal, and coke have seen respective declines of 15.5%, 11.4%, and 7.4% in the first two months [14]. - As of March 18, 2025, the coal sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is at 10.4 times, which is at a historical average level, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is at 1.33 times, also at a historical average [19][23]. Group 2: Coal Market Review - The growth rate of electricity consumption has dropped to 1.3% in the first two months, while non-electric demand has shown overall improvement [4][29]. - Domestic coal prices have been weak since the beginning of the year, with thermal coal prices stabilizing in March [29]. - The import growth rate of coal has decreased to 1.8% in the first two months of 2025 [4][29]. Group 3: Recent Market Dynamics - Port thermal coal prices have slightly declined, while prices in production areas have generally rebounded [4][29]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to stabilize in the short term due to inventory reductions at southern ports and coastal power plants [4][29]. - Coking coal prices have continued to decline, but demand is expected to improve as the spring construction season approaches [4][29]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The coal price is expected to find support at the bottom, with the sector's valuation and dividend advantages becoming more pronounced [4][29]. - The anticipated average coal price for 2025 may decline, but leading companies are expected to maintain stable profitability due to effective cost control [4][29]. - Key companies with robust dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, while companies with lower valuations and long-term growth potential include Xinji Energy and Yanzhou Coal [4][29].

中国神华（601088） 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·煤炭开采 黄骅港扩建点评：中国最大煤炭运输港再扩 建，中国神华煤炭行业龙头效应持续增强 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 344533 | 343074 | 351421 | 374189 | 389709 | | 同比（%） | 2.65 | (0.42) | 2.43 | 6.48 | 4.15 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 69648 | 59694 | 59662 | 60297 | 61228 | | 同比（%） | 39.06 | (14.29) | (0.05) | 1.06 | 1.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.51 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.03 | 3.08 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 10.82 | 12.63 | 12.63 | 12.50 | 12.31 | [Table_Tag] [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua [1] Core Views - The expansion of Huanghua Port, China's largest coal transportation port, enhances China Shenhua's leading position in the coal industry [8] - The expansion project aims to increase annual coal transportation capacity from 210 million tons to 260 million tons, with a total investment of approximately 5 billion RMB [8] - China Shenhua's business model is unique and rare, characterized by stable growth and high dividend yields, making it an attractive investment option [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 343,074 million RMB, with a slight decrease of 0.42% compared to 2022, and expected to grow to 389,709 million RMB by 2026 [1][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 59,662 million RMB in 2024, with a slight decrease of 0.05%, and expected to reach 61,228 million RMB by 2026 [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to remain stable at 3.00 RMB in 2024, increasing to 3.08 RMB by 2026 [1][9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12.63 for 2024, decreasing slightly to 12.31 by 2026 [1][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Qinfa, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6][10]. Core Insights - The primary factor driving the recent decline in coal prices is weak demand [1]. - In the first two months of 2025, raw coal production increased by 7.7% year-on-year, with a daily average production of 12.97 million tons [1][13]. - Coal imports for the same period reached 7.619 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [2][15]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in thermal coal imports for 2025, projecting a total of approximately 38.5 million tons, down 4.9% from the previous year [2][15]. - The report highlights a significant drop in thermal power generation, which decreased by 5.8% year-on-year in January and February 2025 [3][17]. - The crude steel production in the same period saw a decline of 1.5% year-on-year, amounting to 16.63 million tons [4][24]. Summary by Sections Production - In January and February 2025, raw coal production was 77 million tons, marking a 7.7% increase year-on-year, with an expected net increase of 55-60 million tons for the year [1][13]. Imports - The total coal imports for the first two months of 2025 were 7.619 million tons, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year [2][15]. The report predicts a stable to slightly declining trend in thermal coal imports for the year [2][15]. Demand - The report notes a 5.8% year-on-year decrease in thermal power generation, with total industrial power generation down by 1.3% [3][17]. The growth rates for other energy sources like wind and solar power were noted, with wind power increasing by 10.4% and solar power by 27.4% [3][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a focus on companies showing potential for recovery, such as China Qinfa and China Shenhua, and highlights the importance of companies engaging in share buybacks, like Pingmei Shenma [5][26].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Overweight" indicating an expectation of outperforming the overall market [2][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic coal prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels and a seasonal decline in demand, but a reduction in imports is expected to support prices [2][20]. - The report emphasizes that while thermal coal prices have decreased, coking coal prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rebound as demand increases with the arrival of the peak season [2][10]. - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are characterized by stable operations and high dividends [2][26]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - Indonesia is considering increasing mining royalties for coal, nickel, and copper, which could impact coal supply dynamics [9]. - A joint initiative by Chinese coal associations aims to control the import of low-quality coal to maintain market balance [9]. Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown a slight increase in some regions, while the overall price index remains stable [10]. - International coal prices have fluctuated, with Indonesian coal prices increasing slightly, while Australian and South African prices have decreased [11]. Inventory and Supply Chain - The average daily coal inflow and outflow at the Bohai Rim ports have increased, with total inventory decreasing slightly [20]. - Coastal shipping rates have risen significantly, indicating potential cost pressures in the supply chain [23]. Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal sector has seen a significant rebound, with the CITIC Coal Index rising by 4.97% from March 10 to March 14, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.39 percentage points [72] - Despite facing potential second-bottom pressure, the report suggests that positive signals will emerge as prices continue to decline, with a price bottom range identified between 650 to 686 RMB/ton [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the fundamental attributes of the industry and maintaining confidence amidst short-term price fluctuations [2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3,341.47 points, marking a 4.97% increase, making it the second-best performing sector [72] - The coal price dynamics show a contrast where leading coal companies have rebounded despite a drop in coal prices, indicating a market recognition of the price decline [1] Coal Price Trends - As of March 14, the price of North Port thermal coal was reported at 692 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 2 RMB/ton week-on-week [7] - The report notes that the overall supply in coal-producing regions remains stable, with minor fluctuations due to maintenance and production conditions [14] Focus Areas - The report highlights that the focus for thermal coal prices is on the recovery of terminal demand and the international coal market's pricing levels [7] - For coking coal, the report indicates that prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, with a focus on terminal demand recovery [36] Investment Strategy - The report identifies key stocks in the coal sector with "Buy" ratings, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, suggesting a positive outlook for these companies [9] - The report also mentions the potential for increased coal company buybacks, particularly highlighting Pingmei Shenma's share repurchase plan [11]

下行风险得到释放，煤炭板块触底反弹 ——煤炭开采行业周报（2025.3.10~2025.3.16） 2025 年 3 月 16 日 行业研究 投资建议：长协价格将成为现货价格的有利支撑，当前 5500 大卡现货价格接 近长协价格，预计后续下跌空间有限，考虑到 2025 年煤价中枢同比将下行， 仍建议以防守思路对待当前板块，推荐长协占比高、盈利稳定的中国神华、中 煤能源。 风险分析：经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力 度不及预期。 重点公司盈利预测与估值表 | 证券代码 | 公司名称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 投资评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 23A | 24E | 25E | 23A | 24E | 25E | 级 | | 601088.SH | 中国神华 | 37.17 | 3.00 | 2.94 | 3.06 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 增持 | | 000983.SZ | 山西焦煤 | 7.03 | 1.23 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [4][13] - The report highlights that the coal price is expected to exhibit slight fluctuations as it seeks a bottom, with a stable price expectation around 800 RMB/ton for market prices and approximately 700 RMB/ton for long-term contracts [4][13] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, dividends, and a favorable valuation outlook, suggesting significant investment opportunities [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of March 14, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 683 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][33] - The international thermal coal price at Newcastle is 73.0 USD/ton, down 1.0 USD/ton week-on-week [3][33] - The report notes a slight decline in coal prices, indicating a potential bottoming out [4][13] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 96.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [4][13] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 12.40 thousand tons/day (-3.41%), while coastal provinces have seen an increase of 1.70 thousand tons/day (+0.89%) [4][13] - The report emphasizes that the supply-demand balance is currently stable, with a long-term supply gap expected to persist [4][14] 3. Coal Inventory Situation - As of March 13, coal inventory in coastal provinces has increased by 45.20 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces have seen a rise of 29.30 thousand tons [4][13] - The report indicates that coal inventories are relatively high, which may impact short-term price movements [4][13] 4. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [5][14] - It also highlights companies with significant upside potential due to previous underperformance, including Yancoal Australia and Tianma Intelligent Control [5][14] 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.97%, compared to a 1.59% rise in the CSI 300 index [18][20] - The report notes that the thermal coal segment has risen by 4.91%, indicating strong market interest [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company's operating performance meets expectations, and shareholder confidence is reflected in increased holdings [2]. - The acquisition of Shaanxi Coal Power Group is expected to enhance profitability sustainably [4]. - The company has successfully increased coal production to offset the impact of declining coal prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.196 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.97% [4]. - The company’s coal production reached 170 million tons in 2024, up 4.13% year-on-year, and continued to show an upward trend in early 2025 [4]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects operating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 184.145 billion yuan, 165.491 billion yuan, and 168.457 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 22.196 billion yuan, 18.207 billion yuan, and 19.309 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.29 yuan, 1.88 yuan, and 1.99 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 8.8X for 2024, 10.8X for 2025, and 10.1X for 2026 [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to be 1.8 for 2024, 1.6 for 2025, and 1.4 for 2026 [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2022 to 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 6.80% for 2024 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the coal mining industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that after ten rounds of price reductions, profitability is under pressure, and there are expectations of production cuts in the coal mining sector [11]. - Downstream steel mills are currently facing low profitability, resulting in low operating rates and weak demand [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of proactive inventory reduction and price stabilization in the coal market, suggesting that the current decline in coal prices may be nearing its end [7]. Summary by Sections Downstream Demand - Downstream steel mills are experiencing low profitability, leading to low operating rates and weak demand [2][13]. Price and Profitability - Recent coking coal prices have decreased to around 1600 RMB per ton [7][13]. - Some companies report that due to continuous price reductions from coal mines and rising chemical product prices, they have not yet incurred losses, while others are at the breakeven point [7][13]. Inventory Situation - A company reported that its coking coal inventory has risen to approximately 40,000 tons, a significant increase compared to previous years, due to high operating rates in the coking industry and low operating rates in downstream steel mills [7][13]. Key Stocks - The report identifies several key stocks to watch, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, highlighting their potential for recovery and performance [7].