本报讯 记者马玲报道 1月15日，国家外汇管理局公布了2025年12月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付 款数据。数据显示，2025年12月，银行结汇22446亿元人民币，售汇15382亿元人民币。2025年1至12 月，银行累计结汇185227亿元人民币，累计售汇171314亿元人民币。 2025年12月，银行代客涉外收入58197亿元人民币，对外付款50186亿元人民币。2025年1至12月， 银行代客累计涉外收入569405亿元人民币，累计对外付款547906亿元人民币。 按美元计值，2025年12月，银行代客涉外收入8244亿美元，对外付款7109亿美元。2025年1至12 月，银行代客累计涉外收入79725亿美元，累计对外付款76704亿美元。 按美元计值，2025年12月，银行结汇3180亿美元，售汇2179亿美元。2025年1至12月，银行累计结 汇25949亿美元，累计售汇23983亿美元。 责任编辑：袁浩 ...

美东时间2026年1月15日（周四），美股收高，在台积电财报带动下，美股芯片板块普涨。原油价格创下自2025年6月以来最大跌幅。 道指涨292.81点，涨幅为0.60%，报49442.44点；纳指涨58.27点，涨幅为0.25%，报23530.02点；标普500指数涨17.87点，涨幅 为0.26%，报6944.47点。 CME"美联储观察"工具显示，美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降息25个基点的概率为 20.8%，维持利率不变的概率为78.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.9%。 堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长施密德于周四表示反对降息。他称通胀"过热"，并警告特朗普政府的政策可能进一步推动经济增长势头。 【导读】美股收高，银行股、芯片股领涨；原油大跌，黄金白银跳水 中国基金报记者 赵刚 综合整理 芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁古尔斯比表示，在有充分证据表明就业市场稳定的情况下，美联储应将重点放在降低通胀上。 美国上周初请失业金人数为19.8万人，预期为21.5万人，前值自20.8万人修正至20.7万人。 芯片股多数上涨 香港万得通讯社报道，美国白宫发布声明，美国从1月15日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant volatility due to rising uncertainty surrounding early elections and an upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, with traders on high alert for potential currency fluctuations [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Movements and Market Reactions - The yen fell to an 18-month low against the dollar earlier this week, driven by expectations that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will call for elections to solidify his position and increase government spending [1]. - The yen briefly dropped to 159.45 and was around 158.65 on Friday morning, with the 160 level being a psychological threshold that the market is closely monitoring [4]. - The recent depreciation of the yen has raised concerns about potential market intervention by the Japanese government to support the currency, with officials focusing more on the magnitude and speed of fluctuations rather than specific levels [1][4]. Group 2: Central Bank and Policy Implications - Investors are keenly awaiting signals regarding interest rate hikes from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda in the upcoming policy decision [1]. - The last interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December did not provide lasting support for the yen, and officials are increasingly concerned about the yen's impact on inflation, which may influence future rate decisions [4]. - The lack of hawkish comments from the central bank during the last press conference led to a significant weakening of the yen, indicating the market's sensitivity to the Bank's communications [4]. Group 3: Hedge Fund Activities and Market Sentiment - Hedge funds are aggressively buying call options for USD/JPY, betting on a depreciation of the yen to around 165, which they believe would trigger substantial market intervention by Japanese authorities [4][5]. - There is a sustained demand for investment in the high-end structure of USD/JPY, with notable direct option buying and leveraged trading strategies being deployed [5]. - Data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) shows that the volume of call options traded was more than double that of put options, reflecting strong bullish sentiment towards USD/JPY [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the US stock market, particularly in the technology and financial sectors, driven by strong earnings reports and robust demand for AI-related products [2][4][6]. - Major US stock indices saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.6% to 49,442.44 points, the S&P 500 up 0.26% to 6,944.47 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.25% to 23,530.02 points [4]. - The semiconductor sector experienced significant growth, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 1.76% to reach a new historical high, driven by strong performances from companies like TSMC and ASML [4][5]. Group 2 - TSMC reported impressive earnings for Q4 2025, with revenue of $33.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, and a net profit of approximately $16 billion, up 35% [4][5]. - TSMC's gross margin reached 62.3%, indicating strong cost control and pricing power despite expansion efforts [4]. - The company plans to increase its capital expenditure budget for 2026 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, with an expected rise in revenue contribution from advanced processes [4]. Group 3 - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both released strong quarterly earnings, boosting the performance of US financial stocks [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley's Q4 2025 net revenue was $17.89 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of $4.4 billion, up 18% [7][8]. - Goldman Sachs reported Q4 net revenue of $13.45 billion, a 3% year-on-year decline, but achieved record stock trading revenue of $4.31 billion [8].

2026年开年，存款市场迎来重要变化。曾作为银行"揽储利器"的大额存单，利率持续下行，部分中小银 行3个月期产品利率首次跌破1%，正式进入"0 字头"区间。 大额存单短期限产品利率跌破1%，成为近年来首次出现的市场现象。 这一变化，不仅正在改写储户对于"高息存款"的旧有认知，更推动整个理财市场迎来资产配置的重构浪 潮。 根据中国货币网公开信息，今年已有超40家银行发布2026年第一期大额存单发行公告。在"期限"和"利 率"两个方面都有明显不同于往年的变化。 记者登陆部分银行手机银行App看到，在大额存单转让专区，投资者可选择购买其他人正在转出的大额 存单，但并不支持所谓"定向转让"的操作。 市场普遍关注，未来大额存单市场走势如何？ 以往相较于国有大行在利率上有所优势的中小银行，在今年开年的新发产品中，也没有表现出"应有 的"优势。 例如，云南腾冲农商银行、隆阳农商行在1月初发行的期限3个月大额存单，利率均为0.95%。淮北农村 商业银行针对机构发行的3个月期单位大额存单，起存金额高达1000万元，利率也仅1%。 这意味着，从利率上看，大额存单新发行产品利率与普通定期存款差距进一步拉平。存款利率下行趋势 在进入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development Bank plans to invest over 290 billion RMB in 2025 to support the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Group 1: Investment Focus - In 2025, the National Development Bank will focus on key areas such as infrastructure, international industrial cooperation, trade, and financial collaboration [1] - The bank will utilize various financial products and services, including RMB financing windows and special loans for the Belt and Road Initiative, to support significant projects and smaller community-focused initiatives [1] Group 2: Strategic Goals - The bank aims to enhance "hard connectivity" in infrastructure, "soft connectivity" in rules and standards, and "people-to-people connectivity" among the countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1] - The International Financial Department of the National Development Bank will leverage its comprehensive financial service advantages to strengthen traditional cooperation and gradually expand into emerging areas [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses various dividend yields of different indices and ETFs, highlighting the performance of low volatility and high dividend yield funds in the Chinese market [1][3][7] - The S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF has a dividend yield of 5.60%, while the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity ETF has a yield of 4.76% [1][7] - The China A500 Low Volatility Dividend Index has a yield of 4.49%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Value Index has a yield of 4.29% [2][3][7] Group 2 - The article provides a comparison of various financial metrics, including the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.50% and the 1-year LPR at 3.00% [3][7] - It also mentions the yield of 30-year government bonds at 2.27% and the rental return rates in major cities, such as Tianjin at 2.36% and Shanghai at 1.95% [3][7] - The article notes that the yields and rates are based on data as of December 31, 2025, and are subject to change [3][7]

每经记者｜刘嘉魁 每经编辑｜陈柯名 廖丹 凌晨点外卖次数过多，银行卡竟被风控冻结。一套基于机器学习的风控系统，正让寻常消费行为与电诈特征在深夜的支付路口狭路相逢。 日前，一名网友在社交平台展示了一张带有反诈中心公章的解封证明，其"可疑交易说明"一栏写着"主要是晚上凌晨点外卖次数较多被风控"。这位网友调 侃道："没玩梗，是真的，盖章之后解开了。" | | C-C-C-G | | --- | --- | | 联系地址 | S | | 人联系方式 | | | 1 交易说明 | →面上临上海量占外实,以前身之散入行。 | | 中心审核意见 是否建议解除管 | | | 控) | | | 心审核人(签章) | 联系方式 官 | | | 注:此表一式两份,银行(金融机构)开户网点、公安机关反 | 图片来源：某社交平台 金融消费者如何降低被"误伤"的概率？万一被管控，如何高效解决？银行业研究人士表示，银行的风控系统主要是通过机器学习模型，识别与已知电信诈 骗等非法活动相似的可疑交易模式。金融消费者要注意避开敏感交易特征、保持信息真实有效、远离风险账户等。 消费者被"误伤"： 风控模型难以精准识别"可疑"外卖 类似上述网友的案 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a mixed performance in the U.S. stock market, with major indices showing slight gains, while large banks reported disappointing fourth-quarter earnings, leading to declines in bank stocks [1][3]. - The Dow Jones increased by 0.6% to 49,442.44 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.26% to 6,944.47 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.25% to 23,530.02 points [1]. - Goldman Sachs and Nvidia were notable gainers, with Goldman Sachs rising over 4% and Nvidia increasing by more than 2% [1]. Group 2 - U.S. six major banks announced over $140 billion in dividends and stock buybacks in 2025, surpassing the previous record set in 2019 [1]. - JPMorgan Chase repurchased over $30 billion in stock, marking the highest record for Wall Street banks and more than three times its buyback amount from two years ago [1]. - Despite the strong buyback trend, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reported declines in profits, with Wells Fargo's stock dropping by 4.7% and Citigroup's by 3.3% [1][3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 货币政策结构性降息，大类资产震荡调整 ——中信期货晨报20260116 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-01-15 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 炉深300期货 | 4746.6 | 0. 09 | 0.06 | 3. 19 | 3. 19 | 3. 19 | | | 上证50期货 | 3108 | -0.36 | -0. 85 | 2.74 | 2.74 | 2. 74 | | | 中证500期货 | 8206. 8 | 0. 03 | 2.1 | 11. 46 | 11. 46 | 11. 46 | | | 中证1 ...