Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the pig price is supported by both supply and demand factors as the market enters the winter consumption peak, with expectations for a gradual increase in the price center [11] - The beef cycle is expected to maintain its prosperity, with a decrease in cattle inventory and high calf prices indicating cautious expansion in the breeding sector [20] - The report highlights the acceleration of pig breeding losses and the strengthening logic of domestic pet products, recommending several companies in the pig farming and pet sectors [24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average price of pigs in China as of November 28, 2025, is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.42 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.27 yuan/kg [11] - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.22 kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.41 kg and a year-on-year increase of 2.49 kg [11] - The report notes that winter consumption favors larger pigs, leading to an increase in average weights at market [11] Weekly Views - The report states that pig and piglet prices are in a loss situation, which may accelerate the culling of breeding sows [24] - The feed sector is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [24] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [24] Market Performance (November 24-28) - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 0.17 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the agricultural index rising by 1.57% [26] - Key stocks leading the market include Jin Xin Nong (+12.60%), Yuan Fei Pet (+8.39%), and Xi Wang Food (+7.57%) [26] Price Tracking (November 24-28) - The average price of pigs is 11.19 yuan/kg, down 0.45 yuan/kg from the previous week; piglet prices are 19.19 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg [33] - The average wholesale price of beef is 66.39 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg [36] - Corn and soybean meal prices have increased, with corn futures at 2241.00 yuan/ton (up 2.66%) and soybean meal futures at 2459.00 yuan/ton (up 1.32%) [44]

Core Viewpoint - The price difference between standard and large pigs has widened, indicating an increasing demand for larger pigs in the market, particularly for making preserved meats as the winter season approaches [1] Supply Structure Changes - The number of pigs held by smallholders has decreased by 15% compared to last year, while the proportion of large pigs (over 140 kg) in total inventory has risen to 22% [2] - In the Sichuan-Chongqing region, the proportion of large pigs (300-400 lbs) in local slaughterhouses has increased by 8 percentage points to 35%, reflecting strong local demand for larger pigs [2] Supply Pressure and Market Dynamics - Despite the widening price difference, supply pressure remains, with the price difference only increasing by 0.01 yuan/kg, indicating limited market capacity to absorb large pigs [3] - As of October, pigs weighing 90-140 kg accounted for 36.22% of the inventory, up by 1.68% from last year, suggesting a significant number of standard and large pigs will be available for sale in the coming months [3] Demand Variability - National slaughterhouse operating rates have slightly decreased by 0.03 percentage points, and fresh meat sales have dropped by 0.09 percentage points, indicating insufficient consumer acceptance of large pigs [4] - While demand for preserved meats has increased in the Southwest, with orders for preserved meat in Sichuan rising by 20%, regions like Henan show a lower demand for large pigs, with only 18% of local slaughterhouse purchases being large pigs, down by 5 percentage points from last year [4] Disease Impact - Although winter is a peak period for pig diseases, the survival rate in large farms remains high at over 95% due to robust biosecurity measures, limiting the impact of diseases on overall supply [5] - The inventory of breeding sows is still 2% above normal levels, indicating that the fundamental oversupply of pigs remains unchanged [5] Price Outlook - In the short term, the supply of large pigs is expected to exceed demand by 15% in November and December, primarily due to the concentration of previously raised pigs coming to market [7] - Despite the price advantage of large pigs and the widening price difference, overall pig prices are not expected to rise significantly [7] - In the medium to long term, the market may experience a "low first, high later" trend, with high breeding sow inventory likely keeping prices around the cost line of 12-13 yuan/kg in the first half of 2026 [7]

Core Insights - The national average price for live pigs is stable at 5.65 yuan per kilogram, showing little change from the previous day, with 6 regions experiencing price increases, 4 regions seeing declines, and 18 regions remaining stable [3][4] - The lowest price for live pigs is reported in Guangxi at 5.2 yuan per kilogram, while the highest price is in Hainan at 7.2 yuan per kilogram [3] Price Trends - In the Northeast and North China regions, prices are stable with slight increases, with standard pig prices ranging from 5.5 to 5.8 yuan per kilogram [4] - In Guangdong, prices remain stable, while some low-price areas are experiencing a rebound of about 0.1 yuan [4] - Overall, after a previous decline, pig prices are showing signs of stabilization [4]

Group 1 - The supply of live pigs remains relatively loose, and due to policy guidance from the National Development and Reform Commission, large pig enterprises are reducing the weight of their marketings, which increases short-term supply pressure and leads to a significant decline in pork prices during the month [1][2] - The industry is experiencing expanded losses, with the number of breeding sows in the country entering a de-stocking phase since July, and the de-stocking trend accelerating in October, which may further elevate the price center for pigs in 2026 [1][2] - The cash flow of "low-cost+" pig enterprises is expected to improve significantly, continuously enhancing their intrinsic value [1][2] Group 2 - In October 2025, the total number of live pigs marketed by 15 listed pig enterprises reached 17.52 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 23%, primarily due to the release of capacity by leading pig enterprises [3] - The average marketing weight of pigs from nine listed enterprises decreased to 121 kg, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.9% and a month-on-month decline of 1.5% [3] - The number of piglets marketed in October 2025 was 1.44 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 144%, with the proportion of piglets in total marketings rising by 0.4 percentage points to 20% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ningxia is witnessing a significant agricultural transformation, with the "Six Special" industries driving rural revitalization and economic growth, as evidenced by the increase in primary industry value added from 33.808 billion yuan in 2020 to 45.124 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 5.8%, surpassing the national average by 1.1 percentage points [1] Group 1: Development of "Six Special" Industries - The "Six Special" industries, including cool-season vegetables, Tan sheep, and milk, have become national advantageous industrial clusters, establishing a complete industrial chain from breeding to processing and sales [2] - The cooperative model involving enterprises and universities has led to the development of specialized feed and a stable annual processing and sales volume of 5,000 Tan sheep in a village previously affected by sandstorms [2] Group 2: Digital Transformation in Agriculture - The transition from traditional farming to smart agriculture is highlighted by the use of a digital agriculture platform that enhances irrigation efficiency and crop management, significantly improving productivity [3] - Technologies such as embryo transfer have increased the good breed rate of beef cattle to 85%, and digital management systems for Tan sheep have achieved a survival rate of 96% [3] Group 3: Shared Economic Benefits - The collective income of villages in Ningxia is projected to reach 2.38 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with 85.6% of villages achieving stable operational income, and over 40% of rural residents' disposable income coming from special industries [4] - Training programs for high-quality farmers have reached 450,000 participants, contributing to the modernization of agriculture and enhancing the skill set of the workforce [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd., the largest pig farming company in China, as it re-applies for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after a previous application expired. The company aims to achieve dual listing in both A-shares and H-shares, which could enhance its market presence and capital access. Group 1: Company Overview - Muyuan Foods was listed on the A-share market in 2014 and has maintained a strong market position, being the world's largest in terms of pig production and sales since 2021, with a global market share of 5.6% as of 2024 [5][3] - The company's main business includes the entire pig farming industry chain, covering feed processing, breeding, and slaughtering, with the pig farming segment accounting for 98.7% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [5][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was reported at 1248.26 billion, 1108.61 billion, and 1379.47 billion respectively, with a notable recovery in 2025 as the revenue for the first half reached 764.63 billion [5][3] - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was 107.9 billion, with a significant increase in gross margin from 7.7% in the first half of 2024 to 19.0% in the first half of 2025, attributed to improved profitability in the pig farming business [5][3] Group 3: Shareholding and Management - The direct controlling shareholder of Muyuan Foods is Muyuan Industrial Group Co., Ltd., holding a 15.54% stake. The chairman and president, Qin Yinglin, directly holds 20.86 billion shares and has a reported salary of 3.722 million for 2025 [6][3] - Qin Yinglin and his wife collectively own 54.91% of the company, and they were ranked 16th on the 2025 Hurun Rich List with a wealth of 187 billion [6][8] Group 4: Market Expansion and Strategy - Muyuan Foods plans to use the funds from the IPO to expand into overseas markets and enhance its research and development across the entire industry chain, focusing on breeding, smart farming, nutritional management, and biosecurity [10][3] - The company recognizes the potential for growth in emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where per capita meat consumption remains low compared to developed countries [10][3] Group 5: Financial Risks - The company has shown a significant increase in net current liabilities, reaching 155.89 billion, 310.76 billion, 241.58 billion, and 166.37 billion from 2022 to mid-2025, primarily due to short-term borrowings and payables, indicating potential liquidity risks [10][3] - Muyuan Foods holds substantial biological assets, with a book value of 81.67 billion for productive biological assets and 302.21 billion for consumable biological assets as of mid-2025, which are susceptible to market price fluctuations and other uncontrollable factors [10][3]

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. has re-submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after the initial submission expired, aiming for a dual listing in both A-shares and H-shares [2][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Muyuan Foods is the largest pig farming company in China and has maintained the top position globally in terms of pig production capacity and output since 2021, with a global market share of 5.6% as of 2024 [4][5]. - The company's main business includes the entire pig farming industry chain, covering feed processing, pig breeding, and slaughtering [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 124.83 billion yuan, 110.86 billion yuan, and 137.95 billion yuan, respectively, with a revenue of 76.46 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.79 billion yuan reported for the first half of 2025 [5]. - The gross profit margin improved from 7.7% in the first half of 2024 to 19.0% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to better margins in the pig farming business [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The IPO funds are intended for expanding overseas markets, enhancing technology research and development across the entire industry chain, and focusing on breeding, smart farming, nutritional management, and biosecurity [6]. - The company aims to leverage its leading position to capitalize on the growing meat consumption trends in developing countries, particularly in Southeast Asia [6]. Group 4: Debt and Asset Management - The company has shown significant changes in its debt structure, with net current liabilities reaching 15.59 billion yuan, 31.08 billion yuan, 24.16 billion yuan, and 16.64 billion yuan as of the end of 2022, 2023, 2024, and mid-2025, respectively [7]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company held biological assets valued at 8.17 billion yuan for productive assets and 30.22 billion yuan for consumable assets, which are subject to fluctuations due to market prices and other uncontrollable factors [7].

高空近月或反套 生猪周报 2025/11/29 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内猪价震荡回落，后期跌幅扩大，周内养殖端出栏积极，气温偏高不足以支撑大规模腌腊进行，后半周出栏节奏加快，周内交 易均重继续小幅回升，散户出栏占比扩大，肥标差明显下滑；具体看，河南均价周落0.34元至11.36元/公斤，周内最低11.36元/公斤，四川均 价周持平于11.3元/公斤，周内最高11.5元/公斤，广东均价周持平于11.36元/公斤；南方规模场出栏进度仍慢，整体供应充沛，不过月底月初 存在缩量可能，或短时支撑猪价，需求端处缓慢爬坡期，但短时增量仍较难对冲供应增幅，预计下周猪价整体偏弱为主，阶段性不乏反弹可能。 ◆ 供应端：10月官方母猪存栏为3990万头，环比回落1.1%，仍比正常母猪保有量多2.3%，去年以来母猪产能的持续增加，或 ...

Core Insights - The average wholesale price of pork in China has decreased to 17.83 yuan/kg as of November 28, down 0.4% from 17.91 yuan/kg on November 21 [1] - The average price of live pigs (external three yuan) has also declined to 11.28 yuan/kg, a 3.6% drop from 11.7 yuan/kg on November 21 [1] Price Trends - The average price of pork this week is 17.88 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from last week's average of 17.93 yuan/kg [1] - The weekly average price of live pigs is 11.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous week's average of 11.66 yuan/kg [1] Market Dynamics - The average trading weight of live pigs has slightly decreased to 124.62 kg, down 0.1% week-on-week [3] - There is an increase in the supply of live pigs as farmers accelerate the outflow of heavier pigs, while slaughterhouses are increasing their procurement of pigs from smallholders [3] Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in December, with a potential for short-term price increases due to reduced outflow plans from some farming groups [5] - However, overall supply remains abundant, which may lead to downward pressure on prices despite a slight increase in slaughter volumes [5] Long-term Projections - The industry anticipates that the supply of live pigs will remain high in the first half of next year, with production performance improvements and stable epidemic conditions [4] - Price pressures are expected to continue into the off-season, with potential recovery in the second half of next year as production capacity decreases [4]

证券时报·数据宝统计，德康农牧在港交所公告显示，11月28日以每股74.000港元至75.967港元的价格回 购6.55万股，回购金额达491.00万港元。该股当日收盘价75.200港元，上涨0.74%，全天成交额3274.76 万港元。 自11月25日以来公司已连续4日进行回购，合计回购54.45万股，累计回购金额4045.89万港元。 其间该 股累计下跌1.25%。 今年以来该股累计进行8次回购，合计回购79.76万股，累计回购金额5906.38万港元。（数据宝） 德康农牧回购明细 | 日期 | 回购股数（万股） | 回购最高价（港元） | 回购最低价（港元） | 回购金额（万港元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.11.28 | 6.55 | 75.967 | 74.000 | 491.00 | | 2025.11.27 | 6.97 | 74.757 | 73.350 | 517.75 | | 2025.11.26 | 15.19 | 75.150 | 71.900 | 1109.80 | | 2025.11.25 | 25.74 | 76.150 | ...