Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the agricultural sector is positive, with expectations of higher returns than the CSI 300 index by over 5% in the next six months [50]. Core Insights - Recent increases in agricultural product prices are expected to continue due to tariff countermeasures, presenting overall investment opportunities in the agricultural sector. Key investment themes include tariff countermeasures, capacity reduction, and low valuations [6][20]. - The livestock industry is experiencing stagnation in production capacity, with valuations at historical lows, indicating long-term investment potential despite potential price fluctuations [6][21]. - The poultry sector, particularly broilers, is anticipated to see price increases due to reduced imports from the U.S. following tariff impositions, alongside a steady recovery in consumer demand [9][22]. - The feed industry is showing resilience, with smaller adjustments compared to other sub-sectors, indicating a stable outlook [26]. Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock Industry - Swine prices are currently at 14.97 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.31 CNY from the previous week. The average weight of slaughtered pigs is 91.46 kg, with a processing plant utilization rate of 34.78% [14][20]. - The profitability for self-breeding farms is reported at 79 CNY per head, with a slight increase in the price of piglets to 40.9 CNY/kg [21]. - The broiler market is seeing a price increase, with the average price for broiler chicks at 3.1 CNY per chick and broiler meat at 3.75 CNY per jin [9][22]. Poultry Industry - The yellow chicken market is experiencing a price recovery, with prices reaching 10.69 CNY/kg, indicating a potential upward trend due to tightening supply [10][23]. - The animal health sector is showing signs of recovery, with increased demand for veterinary products as pig inventories rise [11]. Planting Industry - The seed industry is expected to benefit from improved policy environments, particularly for genetically modified corn and soybeans, which are projected to accelerate in commercialization [12][24]. - Recent increases in grain prices, with corn at 2290 CNY/ton and wheat at 2426 CNY/ton, are attributed to tariff countermeasures against U.S. imports, suggesting further investment opportunities in this sector [13][24]. Industry Data - The agricultural index has seen a decline of 2.14%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices, indicating a need for cautious investment strategies [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in livestock and agricultural product prices, highlighting the increase in pig prices and fluctuations in other agricultural commodities [2][3]. Livestock Prices - As of April 18, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.97 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.11%. The average price of 15 kg piglets was 37.11 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.24% [2]. - The average weight of market pigs was 128.57 kg, which decreased by 0.24 kg week-on-week. The national frozen product inventory rate was 14.88%, down by 0.06 percentage points [2]. - The recent cold wave caused disruptions in pig transportation, leading to increased prices in regions like Northeast China. The sentiment among farmers to hold onto pigs has strengthened, and there is a rise in secondary fattening and restocking activities, further supporting pig prices [2]. Agricultural Products - As of April 18, the average price of corn was 2268.04 yuan/ton, down by 0.02% week-on-week. The average price of soybean meal was 3395.14 yuan/ton, up by 3.79%, and the average price of wheat was 2427.50 yuan/ton, up by 0.23% [3]. - The corn prices are supported by the US-China tariff dispute and reduced US corn inventory. However, domestic demand remains weak due to cautious purchasing by deep processing and feed enterprises, leading to a stable acquisition price [3]. - The soybean meal prices are rising due to increased import costs and tight supply ahead of the holiday season [3]. - The price of natural rubber was 14625 yuan/ton, down by 1.35%. The market is currently in a weak balance of supply and demand, with high social inventory levels [3].

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周猪价上涨 农产品方面，本周豆粕、小麦现货价格上涨，玉米现货价格下跌 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 根据博亚和讯，4月18日全国外三元生猪均价为14.97元/kg，周环比+2.11%，15公斤仔猪均价37.11元/公 斤，周环比下跌0.24%。根据涌益咨询数据，本周商品猪出栏均重为128.57kg，周环比下降0.24kg，全国冻 品库容率为14.88%，环比下降0.06pct。上周寒潮导致北方暴雪，生猪调运受阻，屠宰企业收猪难度加大， 东北等地猪价强势上涨。养殖端惜售情绪增强，二次育肥补栏积极性提升，叠加屠宰企业冻品入库需求旺 盛，进一步支撑猪价。但从均重角度来看，涌益出栏均重连续两周下降，农业部宰后均重加速冲高，库存 拐点已逐渐清晰。 风险分析： 畜 ...

据巴西247新闻网4月17日报道，巴西农业部长卡洛斯.法瓦罗当日表示，在美国近400家屠宰场被取消对 华出口资格后，巴西打算成为中国牛肉需求的替代供应国。他强调，巴西无意在中国市场完全取代美 国，但认为中国市场仍有增长空间。他还强调，巴西是世界上农业扩张能力最强的国家之一。(环球网) ...

罗牛山（000735）公告，2024年第一季度营业收入8.94亿元，同比下降35.54%。净利润1.1亿元，同比 增长128.81%。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a divergence in the data for breeding sows, with a 0.96% decrease in the breeding sow inventory at the end of Q1, marking the end of three consecutive quarters of increase. This indicates a potential shift in production capacity [1][2] - Despite the recent increase in pig prices, the report suggests that the downward trend in prices may be difficult to reverse in the future due to increased supply from rising breeding sow inventories and piglet numbers [1][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the official start of production capacity reduction, which could present investment opportunities in companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group [1][3] Summary by Sections Breeding Sow Inventory - As of the end of Q1, the national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.39 million heads, a decrease of 390,000 heads or approximately 0.96% from the previous quarter, ending a trend of increases observed from Q2 to Q4 of the previous year [2] - Third-party monitoring data shows mixed results, with some reporting increases while others indicate a decrease, suggesting a more accurate reflection of actual production capacity trends [2] Pig Prices - Post-Spring Festival, pig prices have remained stable, fluctuating between 14.5 to 14.7 yuan per kilogram, with a brief increase to 15 yuan per kilogram around mid-April, which was stronger than market expectations [3] - The report attributes the stability in prices to factors such as low frozen product inventories and increased market demand, although it warns that the overall trend may still be downward due to rising supply [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that may benefit from the anticipated changes in production capacity, specifically highlighting Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group as key investment opportunities [1][3][8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: April 17, 2025 [2] - Core View: The supply of pigs tends to increase, demand is weakening, and the market is in a state of loose supply and demand. However, the active entry of secondary fattening in the short - term has intercepted part of the supply and boosted the spot price. The futures contracts show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [8] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 16th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and fluctuated downwards, closing in the negative. The highest was 14,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,275 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,253 lots to 160,482 lots [7] - Spot: On the 16th, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 14.90 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] Pig Market Analysis - Demand Side: The utilization rate of pig fattening pens is rising slightly. Due to low fattening costs and favorable fat - standard price differentials, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased recently. As the weather warms, some farmers are replenishing their stocks. Terminal demand is gradually weakening, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased. On April 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 135,900 heads, a decrease of 2,200 heads from the previous day and 1,000 heads from a week ago [8] - Supply Side: The planned sales volume in April is 23.16 million heads, a 3.67% increase from the actual slaughter volume in March and a 7.13% daily increase. In the short - term, the slaughter of farmers has decreased slightly, and the slaughter weight has declined slightly [8] - Overall Market: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and the supply - demand relationship is loose. However, the active entry of secondary fattening in the short - term has intercepted part of the supply and boosted the spot price. Futures contracts are at a discount to the spot. Near - term contracts (2505/2507) are weak due to the off - season demand, while the far - term 2509 contract is strong due to expected growth in demand and rising feeding costs [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to Yongyi's tracking and research data, in the week of April 10th, the weekly slaughter volume of the sample was 1.5005 million heads, a decrease of 30,700 heads or 2.01% from the previous week. The average daily slaughter volume of the daily sample was 138,836 heads, a decrease of 1,391 heads or 0.99% from the previous week [9][11] Group 4: Data Overview - On April 10th, the average market price of 15 - kg piglets was 659 yuan/head, unchanged from the previous week [18] - As of April 10th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 170 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened with purchased piglets was 161 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 19 yuan/head [18] - As of April 10th, the expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 13.32 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.08 yuan/kg. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter was 15.23 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.3 yuan/kg [18] - In the week of April 10th, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.81 kg, a decrease of 0.08 kg or 0.06% from the previous week [18]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In Q1 2025, the supply of live pigs was higher than that in 2024 but lower than the same period in 2023. The increase in pork production due to higher slaughter weights compensated for the supply shortage in terms of headcount, resulting in a slightly higher pork supply than in Q1 2023. Weight remains an important variable driving the supply side of live pigs this year and should be closely monitored [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Production Data**: In Q1 2025, the output of pork, beef, and poultry increased by 1.2%, 2.7%, and 5.1% respectively, while mutton output decreased by 5.1%. Milk output increased by 1.7%, and egg output decreased by 0.1%. The total output of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry was 25.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [3] - **Inventory and Slaughter Data**: At the end of Q1 2025, the inventory of live pigs was 417.31 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. In Q1 2025, the number of slaughtered live pigs was 194.76 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3] - **Output Calculation**: Based on the pork output of 15.83 million tons in Q1 2024, the pork output in Q1 2025 was estimated to be about 16.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and an increase of 0.75% compared to Q1 2023 [3]

来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】4月15日，牧原股份发布公告称，为深入推进国际化战略，打造国际化资本运 作平台，公司拟发行境外上市外资股（H股）股票并在香港联合交易所有限公司（香港联交所）主板挂 牌上市。 （图片来 源：上市公司公告） 公告显示，牧原股份将充分考虑现有股东的利益和境内外资本市场的情况，在股东大会决议有效期内 （即经公司股东大会审议通过之日起24个月或同意延长的其他期限）选择适当的时机和发行窗口完成本 次发行并上市。目前，公司正积极与相关中介机构就本次发行并上市的相关工作进行商讨，除本次董事 会、监事会审议通过的相关议案外，其他关于本次发行并上市的具体细节尚未确定。 牧原股份在公告中提醒广大投资者，本次发行并上市能否通过审议、备案和审核程序并最终实施具有重 大不确定性，请关注后续公告，注意投资风险。 公开资料显示，牧原股份的主营业务为生猪的养殖销售、生猪屠宰，主要产品包括商品猪、仔猪、种猪 及白条、分割品等猪肉产品。截至2024年末，公司已有养殖产能约8100万头/年，共投产10家屠宰厂， 屠宰产能2900万头/年，所有屠宰生猪均来源于公司自有养殖场。 2024年，牧原股份实现营业收入137 ...

金融界4月15日消息，牧原股份发布公告，将于2025年5月20日召开年度股东大会，网络投票同日进行。 股权登记日为5月12日，当日收市后持有牧原股份股票的投资者可以参与投票。 1、《关于 <公司董事会2024年度工作报告> 的议案》 2、《关于 <公司监事会2024年度工作报告> 的议案》 3、《关于 <公司2024年年度报告及摘要> 的议案》 4、《关于 <公司2024年度财务决算报告> 的议案》 5、《关于 <公司2025年度财务预算报告> 的议案》 6、《关于公司2024年度利润分配方案及2025年中期分红规划的议案》 7、《关于公司2025年度董事薪酬方案的议案》 8、《关于公司2025年度监事薪酬方案的议案》 9、《关于聘任公司2025年度审计机构的议案》 10、《关于修订 <公司章程> 的议案》 11、《关于公司发行 H 股股票并在香港联合交易所有限公司上市的议案》 12、《关于公司发行 H 股股票并在香港联合交易所有限公司上市方案的议案》 13、《关于公司转为境外募集股份有限公司的议案》 14、《关于公司前次募集资金使用情况报告的议案》 15、《关于公司发行H股股票募集资金使用计划的议案》 16 ...