Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.10% while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index are down by 0.29% and 0.78% respectively [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Real Estate ETF (515060) increased by 2.05%, with the latest price at 0.748 yuan and an intraday turnover rate of 4.74% [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Chengjian Development led with a rise of 9.78%, followed by Shilianhang up 6.14%, Yingxin Development up 5.71%, New City Holdings up 5.51%, and Suzhou Gaoxin up 5.01% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - On January 7, during the "Ding Zuyu Evaluates the Real Estate Market" 2026 annual conference, industry expert Ding Zuyu indicated that the Chinese real estate sector is expected to stabilize at the bottom in 2026 [1] - This forecast aligns closely with recent industry outlooks from the China Index Academy and Yihan Think Tank [1]

辞旧迎新之际，房地产行业也迎来总结与展望。 1月7日，在"丁祖昱评楼市"2026年度发布会上，行业资深观察者丁祖昱结合产品创新实践与多 维度数据解析， 明确指出2026年中国房地产行业将迎来底部企稳。 这一判断与近期中指研究 院、亿翰智库的行业展望高度契合。 中指研究院强调，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，政策靠前发力与供求关系改善将推动市场筑 底。亿翰智库则以房企年末销售回暖数据为支撑，印证行业风险加速出清后的企稳基础。 记者丨唐韶葵 编辑丨张伟贤 土地市场方面，据CRIC数据显示，城市土地出让分化， 行业规模主要集中在60个核心城市 。 从单个城市来看，重庆与上海分列土地成交面积、金额第一。其中，重庆土地成交面积2753万 平方米，同比涨36%；上海土拍成交金额2565亿元。 央国企依然是投资主力， 拿地金额较2024年同比增20%。2025年拿地金额排名前十的企业所 拿地块高度聚焦一二线城市，一二线城市占比都在85%以上。在"以销定产"模式下，资源进一 步向少数需求活跃、市场韧性较强的核心城市集中。 不过，丁祖昱也给出了 "房地产仍是经济发展支柱" 的判断。从房地产增加值占GDP比重、商 品住房销售额 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is in a bottoming phase, with a focus on differentiation among sectors and a core strategy for recovery [1][3] - New home sales are still in a contraction phase, with a year-on-year decline of 7.8% in sales area from January to November 2025, while the decline in new residential sales area is 8.1% [4][7] - The report anticipates that the market will continue to stabilize in 2026, driven by policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting the construction of quality housing [4][30] Fundamental Analysis - New home sales remain in a contraction zone, with first-tier cities showing relative resilience. From January to November 2025, sales area in first-tier cities decreased by 7.5%, while second and third/fourth-tier cities saw declines of 16.3% and 10.2%, respectively [15][19] - The inventory level remains high, with the average de-stocking cycle for commercial housing at 10.4 months and 6.6 months for residential properties. First-tier cities experience relatively lighter de-stocking pressure [22][23] - The land market is characterized by "volume reduction and quality improvement," with residential land transactions down by 7.3% in area but with an increase in average floor price by 12.3% [40][44] Investment Themes - **Hong Kong Residential Market**: There is a recovery in residential transactions, with a 16.2% year-on-year increase in the number of sales contracts from January to November 2025. The private residential price index has risen by 3.4% since March [4][70] - **Commercial Sector**: Policies aimed at boosting consumption have led to a steady recovery in retail sales, with a 3.0% year-on-year increase from January to November 2025. Shopping center foot traffic has stabilized, showing a 14.1% increase in the first half of 2025 [4][5] - **Brokerage Sector**: The pressure to deplete new home inventory has led developers to rely more on brokerage channels, with the proportion of sales expenses attributed to distribution and agency commissions reaching 51.9% in the first half of 2024 [4][19] Market Outlook - The report forecasts that the overall market will continue to bottom out in 2026, with a projected year-on-year decline of 3% in sales area and sales amount [66][67] - New construction and investment are expected to decrease by 10% and 7%, respectively, in 2026, due to reduced land acquisition and weak sales [66][67]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate industry is expected to stabilize at the bottom in 2026, supported by policy initiatives and improved supply-demand relationships [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in transaction volume, with estimated sales in 2025 returning to levels seen in 2009, with a total transaction area of approximately 8.9 billion square meters and a transaction value of about 8.4 trillion yuan [3]. - The real estate sector remains a crucial pillar of economic development, as indicated by its contribution to GDP and housing sales figures [3]. - The annual transaction volume for new and second-hand homes is projected to stabilize between 8-9 billion square meters over the next 10-20 years, transitioning to a market dominated by existing transactions [3]. Group 2: Sales and Pricing Trends - In 2025, new home sales are expected to slightly decline, with Shanghai and Chengdu leading in transaction area and value, while the average price of new homes remains stable compared to the previous year [4]. - The second-hand housing market in 30 key cities is projected to reach a record high of approximately 2.14 billion square meters in transaction area [4]. - The land market shows significant differentiation, with major transactions concentrated in 60 core cities, particularly in Chongqing and Shanghai, where land transaction area and value have increased significantly [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Signals - Inventory pressure in the housing market is expected to ease, with short-term inventory growth halting and long-term inventory stabilizing [5]. - Effective inventory of commercial housing is estimated at around 5 billion square meters, which is considered a healthy level relative to annual sales [5]. - Signs of a reversal in the second-hand housing market are emerging, with declining new listings and rental yields exceeding 3% in some core city areas [6]. Group 4: Determinants for Market Stability - Four key factors are identified as necessary for confirming the bottoming of the housing market: policy certainty, price certainty, product certainty, and supply certainty [6].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower and continued to decline, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.22% at 26,136.49 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.13% at 5,673.84 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 1.14% at 9,034.76 points [1] - Major technology stocks experienced declines, including Alibaba down 1.51%, Tencent down 1.68%, JD.com down 1.58%, Xiaomi down 1.78%, NetEase down 0.99%, Meituan down 2.78%, and Kuaishou down 2.51% [1] - The military industry stocks rose, with Aerospace Holdings increasing by over 5%, while the semiconductor sector showed strength with Meijiayin Holdings rising by over 8% [1] - Financial stocks collectively dragged the market down, with Apple concept stocks, gambling stocks, automotive stocks, and home appliance stocks all declining [1] - Three new stocks were listed today, with Jingfeng Medical-B rising over 29%, Tianshu Zhixin rising over 11%, and Zhipu rising over 11% [1] Company News - Xinyi International (00732.HK) reported a cumulative net operating revenue of approximately HKD 16.534 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 7.3% [2] - China Overseas Development (00688.HK) reported a cumulative contract property sales amount of approximately RMB 251.231 billion for 2025, down 19.1% year-on-year [2] - Greentown China (03900.HK) reported a total contract sales amount of approximately RMB 251.9 billion for 2025, a decrease of 9% year-on-year [2] - China Overseas Hongyang Group (00081.HK) achieved a contract sales amount of RMB 2.57 billion in December 2025, down 43.9% year-on-year [3] - Qinhuangdao Port Co., Ltd. (03369.HK) reported a total throughput of 433 million tons for the year ending December 31, 2025, an increase of 4.48% year-on-year [4] - China Carbon Neutrality (01372.HK) signed a tripartite strategic cooperation agreement with China Tower and China Recycled Resources to jointly create a lithium battery circular economy ecosystem [4] - Guofu Hydrogen Energy (02582.HK) entered into a pre-purchase order agreement for the hydrogen energy project in Tasmania, Australia, including electrolyzer hydrogen production equipment and hydrogen refueling station equipment [4] - Lijun Pharmaceutical (01513.HK) had its Lecanemab injection included in the priority review and approval process [5] - Kinko Services (09666.HK) received acceptance from independent shareholders for 218.6 million shares without interests [6] - CICC (03908.HK) plans to issue no more than HKD 3 billion in perpetual subordinated bonds [7] - Agricultural Bank of China (01288.HK) saw Ping An Life increase its stake in its H-shares [8] - Alibaba (09988.HK) announced an upgrade to its Gaode Map with a new "Street View" feature [8] - Agile Group (03383.HK) reported a total pre-sale amount of approximately RMB 8.57 billion as of December 31, 2025 [8] - CIMC Group (02039.HK) announced that the sale of a property project will reduce the group's net profit attributable to shareholders by approximately RMB 1.08 billion for 2025 [9] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) repurchased 3.9 million shares for HKD 149 million at prices between HKD 38.12 and HKD 38.20 [10] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) repurchased 1.023 million shares for HKD 636 million at prices between HKD 615.5 and HKD 628 [10] - Geely Automobile (00175.HK) repurchased 3.388 million shares for HKD 59.156 million at prices between HKD 17.38 and HKD 17.65 [11] - Youjia Innovation (02431.HK) saw its chairman Liu Guoqing increase his stake by a total of 50,000 H-shares [12] Institutional Insights - Guoxin Securities believes that the Hong Kong stock market's recovery has begun, driven by a weaker US dollar and improved domestic liquidity, suggesting a focus on AI and PPI [13] - Galaxy Securities anticipates continued active trading in the Hong Kong market due to multiple positive factors, predicting an overall upward trend [14] - Everbright Securities shares a similar view, noting that domestic policy support and a weaker dollar may lead to further upward movement in the Hong Kong market [14] - Dongwu Securities suggests that the Hong Kong market is entering a period of upward fluctuation, emphasizing the importance of dividends as a base and capitalizing on the technology growth trend in the first half of the year [14] - Industrial Securities recommends a proactive approach to investing, indicating that the Hong Kong market may start a spring offensive led by the Hang Seng Tech Index [14]

Industry Overview - Concerns on the expansion of mid - stream AI technology [1] - Upstream: Liquefied natural gas and international crude oil prices fluctuate slightly; nickel prices rise significantly [3] - Mid - stream: PX chemical product's operating rate increases, while other chemical products have low operating rates; power plant coal consumption rises [3] - Downstream: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities recover; the number of domestic flights increases [3] Industry Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other eight departments issued the Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing", aiming to achieve safe and reliable supply of key core AI technologies by 2027, with the industry scale and enabling level ranking among the world's top [1] - The People's Bank of China will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on January 8, 2026, with a term of 3 months, to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [1] Key Data (Prices and Indices) | Industry | Indicator | Price/Index (1/7) | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2248.6 yuan/ton | - 0.06% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.6 yuan/kg | 3.45% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8530.0 yuan/ton | - 0.40% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15770.5 yuan/ton | 1.42% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.0 yuan/kg | 2.05% | | | Spot price of copper | 103571.7 yuan/ton | 2.49% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24284.0 yuan/ton | 3.77% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 24160.0 yuan/ton | 7.42% | | | Spot price of nickel | 151183.3 yuan/ton | 13.46% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17593.8 yuan/ton | 0.93% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3241.7 yuan/ton | 0.26% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of iron ore | 817.8 yuan/ton | 0.14% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3505.0 yuan/ton | 0.86% | | | Spot price of glass | 12.8 yuan/square meter | 0.39% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 15941.7 yuan/ton | 3.91% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 754.7 | 0.37% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 57.1 dollars/barrel | - 1.42% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 60.7 dollars/barrel | - 1.03% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3230.0 yuan/ton | - 2.18% | | | Coal price | 796.0 yuan/ton | - 0.38% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 5126.8 yuan/ton | 1.60% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6500.0 yuan/ton | 1.88% | | | Spot price of urea | 1730.0 yuan/ton | - 0.14% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1214.3 yuan/ton | - 0.93% | | Real estate | Cement price index (national) | 135.6 | - 0.04% | | | Building materials composite index | 115.6 points | 0.03% | | | Concrete price index (national) | 90.4 points | 0.00% | [34]

Core Insights - The Dubai real estate market is expected to enter a critical transformation phase in 2026 after a period of rapid growth [1] - In the first half of 2025, the transaction volume exceeded 431 billion dirhams, marking a 25% year-on-year increase [1] - The delivery of approximately 120,000 new homes may lead to a mild market adjustment, with increasing differentiation across different regions [1] - Enhanced regulations, the pilot of real estate tokenization, and infrastructure development are anticipated to be new variables influencing the market [1] - The focus of real estate is shifting from short-term trading to long-term asset allocation [1]

Core Insights - The report by Sotheby's International Realty highlights the increasing influence of crypto assets on the global luxury real estate market [1] Group 1: Impact of Crypto Assets - Crypto assets are increasingly being used in high-end residential transactions in regions such as Dubai, New York, and California [1] - Regulatory changes may allow crypto assets to be included in mortgage qualification criteria [1]

Group 1: Strategy Research - The report highlights a differentiated macroeconomic environment, with significant growth in tourism and cultural sectors during the New Year period, alongside notable increases in inbound and outbound travel demand [2][9] - The technology hardware and certain industrial raw materials continue to see price increases, driven by trends in the AI industry and tight supply in chemical and non-ferrous materials [2][9] - The real estate and durable goods sectors remain under pressure, with weak demand in the real estate construction chain [2][9] Group 2: Tourism and Travel - During the 2026 New Year holiday (January 1-3), daily cross-regional personnel flow in China reached 198 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with daily inbound and outbound travel averaging 2.205 million, up 28.6% year-on-year [3][10] - Domestic daily tourism participation and revenue increased by 5.2% and 6.3% respectively compared to the 2024 New Year holiday, with average spending per person rising by 1.1% [3][10] - The improvement in tourism demand is attributed to optimized service supply and the implementation of vacation policies, as well as enhanced inbound travel policies [3][10] Group 3: Downstream Consumption - The price of live pigs increased by 3.9% as of December 28, driven by improved downstream demand due to New Year stocking [4][11] - In 30 major cities, the transaction area of commercial housing decreased by 26.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 31.8%, 14.0%, and 45.5% respectively [4][11] - The average daily retail of passenger cars fell by 12% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in the automotive circulation industry [4][11] Group 4: Technology and Manufacturing - The electronic industry remains buoyant, with AI infrastructure investments driving growth; as of January 2, the average spot prices for DRAM memory (DDR3, DDR4, DDR5) increased by 2.6%, 6.0%, and 7.1% respectively [5][12] - Chemical raw material prices are showing mixed performance, with PX prices rising by 6.4% while PTA prices fell by 0.3%; lithium carbonate prices increased by 5.9% due to supply concerns [5][12] - Coal prices stabilized with a 0.9% increase, while industrial metal prices continued to rise due to supply disruptions and expectations of interest rate cuts [5][12] Group 5: Company Announcements - The report discusses Zhongxin Co., Ltd. (603091) planning to establish a wholly-owned manufacturing base in the U.S., with an investment of up to $36 million for a project producing 20,000 tons of pulp molded tableware annually [13][14] - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting EPS of 3.32, 5.65, and 7.37 yuan for 2025-2027, and sets a target price of 99.68 yuan, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [13][14] - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain resilience and expanding its overseas production capacity to adapt to market demands [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a short-term pullback, particularly affecting leading tech stocks, with the Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) declining by 2.54% while seeing a net inflow of 272 million yuan during the dip. The fund's size reached a historical high of 13.305 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance and Composition - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) and its linked funds passively track the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index, with major holdings including Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Xiaomi Group, which collectively account for over 78% of the top ten weighted stocks [3][4]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include Tencent Holdings (15.42%), Alibaba-W (14.50%), and Xiaomi Group (13.11%), indicating a strong concentration in leading tech companies [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Institutional Insights - Southbound capital showed a net inflow of 9.178 billion yuan, with Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group receiving significant increases in investment, amounting to 1.955 billion and 1.633 billion HKD respectively [4]. - Recent reports highlight the surge in revenue for Kuaishou's AI mobile platform, with daily income increasing by 102% compared to December 2025, positioning Kuaishou as a leader in generative AI [5]. - Citigroup and JPMorgan have identified Tencent Holdings and Alibaba-W as core AI concept stocks, with positive outlooks on their AI development and cloud revenue growth [5]. - Industry analysts suggest that leading internet companies in China are poised for a resurgence, driven by the deepening of AI applications and potential upward revisions in profit expectations and valuations [5][7].