证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-06 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260204：商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被"错杀"？ 大宗商品市场每一轮流动性冲击和恐慌情绪急跌，在完成"清洗"高杠 杆、高风偏的超涨品种之外，部分依托于供需产业链改善逻辑的品种却也 被流动性风险"误伤"，在风险中心已渐进平息之后，被错杀和被误伤的 商品品种和板块，或再度回归各自基本面定价逻辑，迎来相比轮动式上涨 阶段更好的介入时机。 金融产品深度报告 20260203：黄金 ETF，2026 年 1 月复盘与 2 月展望 事件驱动盘点： 资产配置价值：宏观数据与政策预期在月内反复切换， 降息预期对黄金资产配置价值形成阶段性支撑，但政策不确定性上升亦 带来短期扰动。 货币价值：美元信用变化主导黄金货币属性定价，美元 指数与储备结构调整对金价形成阶段性影响，货币价值在支撑与压制之 间反复博弈。 避险价值：多区域地缘与政治风险交织抬升市场不确定 性，避险需求呈现事件驱动、脉冲式释放特征，为金价提供阶段性支撑。 商品价值：央行购金与投资端需求预期保持稳 ...

Core Insights - The collaboration between SenseTime and Dongfeng Motor has resulted in the launch of the industry's first generative intelligent driving mass production solution, aimed at addressing complex urban driving decision-making challenges and advancing intelligent driving towards a "human-centered" evolution [1][2] Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The generative intelligent driving system developed by SenseTime and Dongfeng integrates perception and decision-making processes, significantly enhancing response speed and accuracy compared to traditional systems that either separate these functions or rely on existing driving data [1][2] - This system demonstrates advanced "game theory" capabilities, effectively navigating complex scenarios such as sudden changes in lighting and dense traffic, showcasing its ability to predict the movements of surrounding vehicles and pedestrians [1][2] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The partnership is the result of a year-long collaboration, leveraging SenseTime's established expertise in intelligent driving and Dongfeng's extensive experience in mass production, thus ensuring both technological advancement and practical feasibility [2][3] - For Dongfeng, this solution establishes a sustainable foundation for evolving intelligent driving technologies, enabling the company to gain a competitive edge in the rapidly advancing automotive intelligence sector [2][3] - For SenseTime, collaborating with a leading automotive manufacturer validates the commercial value of its technology and strengthens its competitive position in the intelligent driving market [2][3] Group 3: Future Developments - The generative technology aims to bridge the gaps in existing intelligent driving solutions, paving the way for the mass production of L3/L4 level advanced driving capabilities [2][3] - The solution has undergone rigorous testing in real-world conditions and will be gradually integrated into multiple Dongfeng production models, allowing consumers to experience reliable intelligent driving services [2][3] - Future plans include enhancing the synergy between cabin and driving systems to build a sustainable intelligent driving ecosystem [2][3]

Group 1 - The upcoming third-quarter earnings report from SoftBank Group will be the first opportunity for the company to respond to reports about considering increasing its investment in OpenAI [1] - Expanding its current 11% stake could put pressure on SoftBank's credit rating, as a reported $30 billion investment increase might trigger a downgrade if the loan-to-value ratio reaches 35% [1] - To maintain the loan-to-value ratio below 25%, SoftBank may need to sell at least $15 billion in assets and secure margin loans [1] Group 2 - Following Toyota, Nissan and Honda are the next automotive companies to announce their earnings, with all three having exposure to the U.S. market [1] - A weaker yen is considered beneficial for these companies [1]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 592.58 points, a decline of 1.20%, closing at 48,908.72 points [2] - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 363.99 points, down 1.59%, ending at 22,540.59 points [2] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 84.32 points, a 1.23% drop, closing at 6,798.40 points [2] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Microsoft down nearly 5%, Amazon falling over 4%, and Tesla dropping more than 2% [6] - The performance of the "Tech Seven" index showed a decrease of 1.75% [7] - Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in data centers and chips, raising concerns among investors about profit pressures before returns materialize [7] Commodity Market Movements - Crude oil prices fell after a previous increase, with WTI settling at $63.29 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.8% to $67.55 per barrel [9] - Silver prices saw a significant drop, with a decline of 18% on Thursday, closing at $72.12 per ounce [10] - Bitcoin fell below $65,000, erasing all gains since Trump's election, marking a significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market [12][15] Economic Indicators - The number of planned layoffs in January reached the highest level for that month since the global financial crisis, while hiring intentions hit a record low [5] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose significantly, reaching the highest level since early December, reversing a recent downward trend [5]

根据KBA(德国联邦汽车运输管理局)最新发布的数据，比亚迪2026年1月份在德国售出2629辆新车，远 高于2025年同期的235辆，同比增长10.18倍。在2025年，比亚迪在德国的乘用车注册数量达到23306 辆，相较于2024年的2891辆增长超7倍。 在英国，据SMMT(英国汽车制造商与贸易商协会)数据，比亚迪1月份新能源汽车注册量达4021辆，同 比增长149.13%。 这是比亚迪海外销量增长的一个缩影。目前比亚迪新能源车已遍布全球6大洲、110多个国家和地区，海 外市场全面开花，并推动欧洲、拉美、亚太等主要区域的新能源汽车渗透率提升，同时更高的盈利能力 使海外业务成为公司持续高速高质增长的新引擎。 比亚迪（002594）股份有限公司(以下简称"比亚迪")在海外市场保持攻势。 2025年，比亚迪海外年销量首次突破100万辆，同比增长超140%，推动中国汽车出海再创新高。进入 2026年，这一增速不减。根据比亚迪近日公布的2026年1月份产销快报，公司1月份出口新能源汽车合计 10.05万辆，相较于2025年1月份6.63万辆的海外销量，增长幅度超过50%。 "海外销量的增长将进一步巩固比亚迪在全球新 ...

天眼查资料显示，湖北鸣利来合金钻具股份有限公司，成立于2009年，位于黄冈市，是一家以从事汽车 制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本4298万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，湖北鸣利来合金钻具股份有 限公司参与招投标项目54次，财产线索方面有商标信息2条，专利信息71条，此外企业还拥有行政许可 16个。 国家知识产权局信息显示，湖北鸣利来合金钻具股份有限公司取得一项名为"一种D2材料刀圈的热成型 工艺"的专利，授权公告号CN116765303B，申请日期为2023年7月。 来源：市场资讯 湖北和利来精密锻造科技有限公司，成立于2014年，位于黄冈市，是一家以从事金属制品业为主的企 业。企业注册资本118万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，湖北和利来精密锻造科技有限公司参与招投 标项目2次，专利信息34条，此外企业还拥有行政许可1个。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 ...

Group 1: Heavy Truck Industry Outlook - The heavy truck market in China sold 1.145 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27% [2] - Exports accounted for 341,000 units, reflecting a growth of 17.4% [2] - The industry is experiencing a balanced development of multiple energy sources, including diesel, natural gas, and new energy [2] Group 2: Electric Power Energy Product Layout - The demand for electric power equipment in data centers is rapidly expanding due to advancements in AI technology [4] - The company has established comprehensive energy solution capabilities and has successfully delivered projects in various regions [4] - Future efforts will focus on leveraging delivery, product performance, and product mix advantages to expand strategic customer bases [4] Group 3: New Energy Powertrain Development - The company is accelerating its layout in new energy and technology sectors, focusing on pure electric power systems, fuel cells, and hybrid technologies [5] - The aim is to meet diverse market demands across different regions and application scenarios [5] - The company plans to capitalize on opportunities in the new energy sector by utilizing its full industry chain advantages [5] Group 4: Shareholder Return Outlook - The company is committed to optimizing its profit structure and enhancing long-term competitiveness [6] - Plans include high-frequency cash dividends and share buybacks to improve shareholder returns [6] - The company will consider shareholder expectations and market conditions to maintain a proactive and stable return policy [6]

Core Viewpoint - SAIC Motor Corporation has achieved impressive sales growth in 2025, driven by a strong product lineup and innovative technologies, positioning itself as a leader in the domestic automotive market [1][6][25]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In 2025, SAIC Motor sold 4.507 million vehicles, marking a 12.3% year-on-year increase [1]. - In January 2026, the company continued its momentum with wholesale sales of 327,000 vehicles, a 23.9% increase year-on-year, and retail sales of 363,000 vehicles [1]. - The sales of SAIC's self-owned brands reached 214,000 units, up 39.6%, while new energy vehicle sales hit 85,000 units, also up 39.7% [1]. Group 2: Product Launches - SAIC is set to launch several new models, including the Roewe i6, MG's new electric coupe, and multiple models from the IM brand, enhancing its product portfolio [2][9][11]. - The company is focusing on the high-end new energy market with the IM LS9 Hyper version and the IM LS8, which feature advanced technologies [11][13]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - SAIC has invested over 150 billion yuan in electric and intelligent technologies, resulting in nearly 26,000 effective patents across various platforms [18]. - The company emphasizes technological innovation as a key driver for its product success, with features like semi-solid batteries and advanced hybrid systems [16][21]. Group 4: User-Centric Approach - SAIC's strategy revolves around understanding user needs, offering promotions and services that enhance the customer experience [22]. - The company has initiated a "Know Cars Better" campaign to provide comprehensive support for users, including purchase incentives and service guarantees [22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company aims to continue its strong performance in 2026, focusing on the commercialization of key technologies such as solid-state batteries and digital platforms [25].

Group 1 - The store involved in the incident with two middle school girls issued an apology and stated it would implement thorough reforms following the wrongful detention of the girls, who were suspected of shoplifting [1][5] - The incident occurred on February 2, when the girls were detained for 20-30 minutes after the store received a video alert from headquarters, leading to a confrontation with the girls' parents and police involvement [7] Group 2 - Meituan announced a $717 million acquisition of Dingdong Fresh, with the deal allowing Dingdong to withdraw up to $280 million from its group while ensuring a minimum net cash of $150 million [7] - Dingdong's founder emphasized that the company's core competitive advantages would remain intact post-merger, and the business and team would continue to operate stably [8] Group 3 - Xiaomi announced a reduction in the safety mileage threshold for its assisted driving feature from 1,000 km to 300 km to help users gradually familiarize themselves with the technology [11] - Tencent Games released a notification limiting gameplay for minors during the winter vacation period, allowing only 15 hours of playtime over 29 days [12] Group 4 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission initiated an investigation into the actual controller of Beiliqingsong, Ma Xuejun, for suspected market manipulation, although it is stated that this will not significantly impact the company's operations [15] - Sony raised its full-year operating profit forecast to 1.54 trillion yen, up from a previous estimate of 1.43 trillion yen, following a strong performance in the third quarter [24] Group 5 - Volvo reported fourth-quarter revenue of 94.4 billion Swedish Krona, down from 112.1 billion Swedish Krona year-on-year, with operating profit also declining [25] - NIO projected an adjusted operating profit of between 700 million to 1.2 billion RMB for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its first quarter of adjusted operating profit [26]

Core Viewpoint - Liu Tao, co-CEO of Zhiji Auto, publicly apologized to Tesla for previous comments made regarding a traffic accident involving a Tesla vehicle, acknowledging that his earlier statements were incorrect based on new evidence [3]. Group 1 - Liu Tao's apology was issued on social media, where he clarified that his previous comments about a significant traffic accident in Chaozhou on November 17, 2022, were based on limited information at the time [3]. - The accident was later determined not to be caused by Tesla's brake failure, according to the traffic police's responsibility identification and related judicial appraisal [3]. - Liu Tao expressed regret for the negative impact his premature statements had on Tesla, emphasizing the importance of verifying facts before making public comments [3].