相关报告 | 1、中东冲突升级、美再加征关税,美联储还能降 | | --- | | 息吗? ——宏观周报(第8期)——2025.06.13 | | 2、降息当月为何贷款偏少？——金融数据速评 | | (2025.5) -- 2025.06.13 | | 3、美国核心 CPI 会连续走低吗?——美国 CPI | 点评(2025.5) -- 2025.06.12 2025年06月16日 消费强地产弱分化加剧,货币财政或将先后加码 -- 经济数据点评(2025.5) 投资要点: > 社零增速回升创阶段新高,家电通讯补贴效果强化。5月社会消费品 零售总额同比增长 6.4%,较前月回升 1.3个百分点,创 2024年以来阶段性 新高。家电通讯两大类消费补贴效果再度得到强化是主要推升因素,当月 家电音像、通讯器材同比分别增长达 53.0%和 33.0%,增速分别较前月上行 达 14.2 和 13.1个百分点。房地产市场再度趋弱导致对后地产链条耐用品消 费的持续拖累,汽车尽管同样享受以旧换新补贴但同比1.1%第二个月低位 徘徊,建筑装潢材料、家具同比增速分别下滑 3.9、1.3个百分点;此外油 价走低亦拖累石油制品同比跌幅 ...

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus forecast of 5.7%[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations and up 1.3 percentage points from April[10] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7% from January to May, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous period[18] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to May rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while real estate investment fell by 10.7%[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate new construction area was 22.8%, with completed area down by 17.3%[22] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in industrial added value from January to May[6] Policy Implications - The importance of stabilizing domestic demand is emphasized, especially with external uncertainties remaining high[30] - Active fiscal policies are being accelerated, with government bond financing continuing to grow significantly[30] - The government is focusing on measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumer spending[30] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation and a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S.[30]

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 社零增速回升创阶段新高，家电通讯补贴效果强化。5 月社会消费品 零售总额同比增长 6.4%，较前月回升 1.3 个百分点，创 2024 年以来阶段性 新高。家电通讯两大类消费补贴效果再度得到强化是主要推升因素，当月 家电音像、通讯器材同比分别增长达 53.0%和 33.0%，增速分别较前月上行 达 14.2 和 13.1 个百分点。房地产市场再度趋弱导致对后地产链条耐用品消 费的持续拖累，汽车尽管同样享受以旧换新补贴但同比 1.1%第二个月低位 徘徊，建筑装潢材料、家具同比增速分别下滑 3.9、1.3 个百分点；此外油 价走低亦拖累石油制品同比跌幅扩大 1.3 个百分点。限额以上必需品、必 需品占比较高的限额以下商品零售、餐饮收入同比分别增长 9.6%、5.3%、 5.9%，分别较 4 月上行 0.7、1.3、0.7 个百分点，显示必需品和餐饮等服务 消费增长稳健。 固定投资增速降至年内新低，房地产和传统基建是两大拖累。5 月固 定资产投资同比 2.7%，连续第二个月回落 0.8 个百分点，降至年内增速新 低。房地产开发投资同比-12.0%，跌幅较前月扩大 ...

宏观点评 20250616 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 经济叙事的三重分化——5 月经济数据点评 2025 年 06 月 16 日 ◼ 具体来看，5 月经济各领域表现如下： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《工业生产淡季不弱，"抢出口"有所 放缓》 2025-06-15 《"抢进口"与服务部门衰退冲击令美 国 5 月 CPI 环比不及预期》 2025-06-15 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 5 月经济仍然具有韧性。供给端，5 月工业增加值同比+5.8%，服务业生 产指数同比+6.2%，分别比上月下降 0.3 个点、提高 0.2 个点，供给侧工 业小幅走弱、服务业小幅走强，整体大致跟上月持平。需求端，社零同 比+6.4%，比上月提高 1.3 个点；固定资产投资累计同比 3.7%，比上月 下降 0.3 个点（推算当月同比从 3.6%降至 2.9%）； ...

周五（6 月 13 日），美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌 1.79%，标普 500 指数跌 1.13%，纳指跌 1.3%。万得美 国科技七巨头指数跌 1.02%，英伟达跌超 2%，脸书跌逾 1%。中概股普遍下跌，文远知行跌近 8%。 新闻精要 | 1. 用中长期规划指导经济社会发展是我们党治国理政 | | --- | | 的一种重要方式 | 2. 国常会：部署中国(上海)自由贸易试验区试点措施 复制推广工作 3. 央行发布 5 月金融数据 国内市场综述 低开低走 弱势整理 周五（6 月 13 日）大盘低开低走，弱势整理。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3377 点，下跌 0.75%；深成指收于 10122.11 点，下跌 1.1%；科创 50 下跌 0.51%；创业 板指下跌 1.13%，万得全 A 成交额共 15040 亿元，较 前一日有所上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 4 个行业收涨，其中 石油石化、国防军工、电力及公用事业涨幅居前，而 综合金融、传媒及纺织服装则跌幅较大。概念方面， 油气开采、天然气及航运精选等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指全线收跌，大型科技股普跌 风险提示 1.稳增长力度 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite recent market volatility due to geopolitical tensions, the overall market trend remains upward, with expectations for significant gains in the coming months [1][3][6] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach a target range of 6050 to 6150 points, with a year-end target of 6650 points, suggesting a strong bullish sentiment [2][3] - The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to reach around 22000 points, with the QQQ ETF target price estimated at approximately 540 USD [2] Group 2 - The technology sector is anticipated to continue its upward trend, having been the strongest performing sector recently, with significant improvements in company earnings [6][10][14] - There is a notable rotation of funds back into the technology sector, while the healthcare sector is experiencing outflows due to regulatory pressures [13][14] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with many investors still skeptical about the sustainability of the current rally, despite a 20% rebound from recent lows [16] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken further in the coming months, with projections indicating a potential drop to around 93 or 94 on the dollar index [8][9] - This dollar weakness is viewed as a strategic move to boost exports and may benefit emerging markets and commodities [9][12] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are forecasted to perform well, with a target price of 3800 USD for gold by October [10][12] Group 4 - The market is likely to experience a period of consolidation and minor corrections, particularly around August, which aligns with historical seasonal trends [4][6] - The overall market breadth and momentum indicators suggest that the market is not facing substantial challenges in the near term, maintaining a positive outlook [2][16] - The current economic environment, characterized by potential fiscal issues and expectations of interest rate cuts, is favorable for precious metals and industrial metals [12][10]

据悉，北控集团作为市属国企，高度重视履行社会责任和服务乡村振兴，与延庆、密云、怀柔的6个村 开展结对帮扶工作，用好驻村第一书记。下一步，北控集团还将继续画好助农帮扶"同心圆"，在农业产 业、文旅产业等方面，推进资源共享、区域联动的发展新格局，奋力谱写京华大地乡村振兴新篇章。 据介绍，此次系列活动共设计了4大板块，6次活动，通过多元载体，展现冬奥遗产如何赋能乡村发展， 让奥运精神与乡土文化深度交融。系列活动既是对十年间乡村振兴丰硕成果的深情礼赞，也是对奥林匹 克精神"更快、更高、更强——更团结"的生动诠释，以文化振兴助力产业振兴。 北控集团选派至前黑龙庙村的第一书记刘旭东表示，本次夏季村晚得以圆满完成，离不开派出单位北控 集团的大力支持与鼎力协助。在冬奥会申办成功十周年这一时点，通过一系列活动将冬奥遗产与乡村振 兴紧密结合，以文化振兴为有力抓手，积极推介延庆区及北控集团的特色农产品和丰富的文旅资源，为 乡村振兴注入了强大动力，也为冬奥遗产的赛后可持续利用提供了新的思路与范例。 新京报讯（记者曹晶瑞）6月14日下午，"冬奥荣耀十年路 乡村振兴新征程"系列活动启动仪式暨五村联 办夏季村晚在延庆奥林匹克园区举办。新京 ...

Group 1 - The TMT industry has shown signs of recovery since late May, with a potential for a comprehensive rebound in the sector and its sub-sectors [1] - The performance of the dividend theme has weakened in June, with the probability of the CSI Dividend Index outperforming the CSI 300 dropping to 31%, significantly lower than in May [1] - Key dividend sectors such as banking, transportation, utilities, and coal have low probabilities of outperforming, with the transportation sector below 20% in June [1] Group 2 - Historical analysis indicates that the CSI Dividend Index has outperformed the CSI 300 in June due to favorable industry fundamentals and market downturns in previous years [2] - Current market conditions lack new industry logic or significant market fluctuations, suggesting that dividend assets may face headwinds in June [2] - New consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are currently experiencing high market enthusiasm, but there is a risk of overcrowding, leading to a potential need for portfolio adjustments [2] Group 3 - The market sentiment for the TMT sector is currently at a low level, positioned at the 15th percentile over the past year, indicating potential for a catalytic phase [3] - Events such as the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference and Huawei Conference may serve as catalysts for the TMT sector, with the R2 model being a potential trigger point [3] - The performance of sub-sectors related to AI computing in Q2 is expected to support future trends, enhancing the attractiveness of the TMT industry amidst challenges in the dividend and new consumption sectors [3]

中东局势动荡对资产价格有何影响？20250615 摘要 5 月出口增速受工作日减少影响，实际增速或达 15.8%，中美日内瓦会 谈后部分订单释放，但全球制造业 PMI 回落至 49.6%，贸易需求放缓。 对美出口降幅明显，但对欧盟和非洲出口增速提升。 高新技术产品和装备制造业出口表现强劲，劳动密集型产品出口负增长， 集成电路出口未受关税影响。进口受房地产和海外需求影响下滑，但稳 增长政策带动部分产品进口维持高位。 短期内，6 月出口增速有望维持高位，受益于中美会谈后的新订单。长 期来看，全年出口可能承压，但多元化市场战略有望对冲美国关税的负 面影响。 中东局势动荡对国内市场影响相对有限，但需关注其短期波动及长期结 构性变化。历史数据显示，中东冲突对 A 股和港股市场整体影响有限， 短期内市场呈现窄幅震荡。 短期内，中东局势对各行业影响不显著，长期来看，若冲突持续，资源 品和运输业红利板块可能受益。风险偏好回落将使公用事业、银行、家 电等红利板块表现较好。 Q&A 当前我国出口的现状和未来展望如何？ 根据最新的 5 月进出口数据，5 月我国出口同比增长 4.8%，增速较 4 月回落 3.3 个百分点，但整体来看 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The environmental sector index increased by 0.26%, while the public utility sector index decreased by 1.19%, indicating a divergence in performance [7] - The report highlights the ongoing pilot projects in hydrogen energy, aiming to support the entire chain of hydrogen "production, storage, transportation, and utilization" [11] - The report emphasizes the need for market-oriented measures in electricity management, particularly in cross-provincial emergency dispatching [11] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - The National Energy Administration has initiated hydrogen energy pilot projects to promote clean energy consumption in various sectors [11] - The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed a management method for cross-provincial electricity emergency dispatching to ensure power supply safety [11] Market Performance Review - The environmental sector has shown a cumulative increase of 6.01% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices [7] - The report notes that the coal price remains low, with Qinhuangdao's 5500 kcal thermal coal price at 620 CNY/ton, a significant drop from previous highs [23][24] Industry Data Tracking - As of June 13, 2025, the water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir is 150.66 meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [25] - The report tracks the price of polysilicon, which has decreased to 35 CNY/kg, reflecting ongoing price adjustments in the market [40] Key Industry Events - The report discusses the implementation of various policies aimed at promoting hydrogen energy and carbon emission reduction across different provinces [54][55]