1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors, with short - term trends being volatile and on the stronger side, but the upside space is subject to various constraints. Multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, cost support, and policy expectations drive the prices out of the previous trading range, and attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: For soybean meal, short - term is bullish, and medium - term is bearish. Brazil's slow soybean harvesting, shipping, and sales lead to a shift in selling pressure, and although the expected area of new US soybean crops increases, cost support is strong. For rapeseed meal, short - term is bullish, and medium - term is bearish. Short - term import of rapeseed is limited, and domestic inventory is low, but supply is expected to ease marginally after March [4]. - **Demand**: For soybean meal, short - term is neutral, and long - term is bearish. There is still rigid demand support due to a large breeding inventory base, but attention should be paid to the expected decline in long - term demand. For rapeseed meal, short - term is bearish, but there is a seasonal rebound expectation in aquaculture demand from April to June, and the expanding price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may divert some soybean meal demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Soybean meal inventory in domestic ports and oil mills is still at a high level, and the physical inventory days of feed enterprises are decreasing. Rapeseed meal inventory in major regions has decreased weekly, and low inventory supports near - month prices [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expanding. Market concerns about supply from March to April drive the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal to strengthen. Rapeseed meal mainly follows the trend of soybean meal, and the expanding spot price difference is conducive to the consumption substitution of rapeseed meal [4]. - **Profit**: For soybean meal, short - term is bullish. Although costs have risen, soybean meal prices have increased, and crushing margins have improved. For rapeseed meal, it is neutral, and crushing margins have recovered this week [4]. - **Valuation**: Soybean meal is in the lower - middle range of historical valuations and is sensitive to positive factors. Rapeseed meal is at a relatively low level, and there is room for valuation repair [4]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. The Middle East conflict has pushed up oil and global logistics costs, bringing risk premiums to agricultural products. US biodiesel policy expectations support US soybean demand. Sino - Canadian trade relations have eased, and China has suspended the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal [4]. - **Investment Views**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile and on the stronger side in the short term. However, the upside space of rapeseed meal may be limited. Attention can be paid to the price difference arbitrage opportunities between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. It is recommended to operate cautiously and guard against high - volatility risks [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile and on the stronger side, and operate cautiously. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. Pay attention to policies and weather [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Global Soybean and Rapeseed Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios**: In March, the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 period was raised. The Canadian rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio was lowered [31][39]. - **US Soybean Situation**: US soybean domestic crushing margins are at a high level, but export sales progress is slow [45][54]. - **Brazilian Soybean Situation**: The Brazilian soybean harvesting rate is shown in the report, and there are also data on soybean CNF premiums and import soybean gross margins [61][63]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and feed enterprise inventories are declining. There are also data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports, inventory, oil mill operating rates, and crushing volumes [73][86]. - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: The cost - performance of soybean meal has declined. There are data on feed monthly output, livestock and poultry farming profits, and production capacity [94][100].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 东北供应偏紧支撑盘面，关注政策与宏观扰动 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-03-16 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:东北供应偏紧支撑盘面，关注政策与宏观扰动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 东北产区售粮进度已超七成，基层余粮压力有限，供应偏紧格局是当前行情核心支撑。但华北、西北地区余粮仍较多，且质量偏差的粮源可能在高价下形成 | | | | 潜在供应。同时，需关注年后进口谷物逐步到港、小麦政策性投放增加（已提高至50万吨/周）以及市场预期的陈化稻谷拍卖等潜在替代与政策粮源供应。 | | | | 饲用需求：生猪、蛋禽存栏仍处高位，产能去化不明显，为饲用需求提供大基数支撑，饲料企业维持刚需补库。深加工需求：深加工企业玉米库存低位，存 | | 需求 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - Soybean oil may still have potential upside due to the US biodiesel policy, and Dalian soybean oil may continue to rise after breaking through 8,400 [1]. - Palm oil may face downward pressure as the MPOB report is released and concerns about production growth in March increase [1]. - Rapeseed oil futures may be supported by the escalation of the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories [1]. Cotton - US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation pattern, and domestic cotton prices may maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with strong long - term demand from spinning mills [2]. Sugar - The international sugar price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction in India's production and the decrease in Brazil's sugar - making ratio. Domestic sugar prices are supported by policy expectations and the overall strength of commodities, but the weak sales data in February and the significant increase in inventory may limit the upside [3]. Red Dates - The red date market in the 25/26 production season still has an oversupply situation, with slow inventory reduction. The cost of warehouse receipts supports the futures price [4]. Apples - The apple futures price has fallen from its high due to the cooling market sentiment. The spot market shows a "west - strong, east - weak" pattern, and the low inventory in cold storage supports the futures price [6]. Corn - In the short term, the increase in corn sales and the substitution of wheat may put pressure on corn prices, but the low inventory of downstream enterprises and the need for replenishment will support prices, and the market will remain in a high - level consolidation [9]. Meal - The US soybean price is supported by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, biodiesel expectations, and China's procurement expectations. The domestic meal basis has strengthened, and the futures price is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation [11]. Pigs - The large - scale slaughter of large pigs, the weak demand in the off - season, and the low enthusiasm for secondary fattening may lead to the futures and spot prices continuing to bottom out [14]. Eggs - In the short term, the supply of eggs may decline slightly, and the demand may improve slightly with the approach of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The egg price is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [16]. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 13, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.45% to 8,990, the futures price of Y2605 increased by 0.67% to 8,690, and the basis of Y2605 decreased by 5.66% [1]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The US soybean oil futures were supported by rising crude oil prices and optimistic biofuel demand. The palm oil was affected by weak exports and potential production growth in March. Rapeseed oil was affected by the war in the Middle East and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories [1]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.64% to 15,415, and the price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton at the factory increased by 0.19% to 16,704 [2]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The USDA balance sheet adjusted global production and consumption. The domestic market was affected by the issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas, and spinning mills' demand for cotton was strong in the long term [2]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.57% to 5,447, and the spot price in Nanning increased by 0.37% to 5,490 [3]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The expected reduction in India's production and the decrease in Brazil's sugar - making ratio supported the international sugar price. The domestic sugar market was affected by policy expectations and weak sales data in February [3]. Red Dates - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of red dates 2605 increased by 0.17% to 9,095, and the spot price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates remained unchanged at 9,210 [4]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The red date market in the 25/26 production season had an oversupply situation, with slow inventory reduction [4]. Apples - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of apple 2605 increased by 0.14% to 9,998, and the basis decreased by 6.35% to - 1,525 [6]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The apple spot market showed a "west - strong, east - weak" pattern, and the inventory in cold storage decreased, which supported the futures price [6]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the basis of corn increased by 41.67% to 34, and the price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.42% to 2,386 [9]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The supply of corn in the Northeast increased, and the demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises was affected by wheat substitution. Policy factors also had an impact on the market [9]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased by 2.44% to 3,360, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 2.42% to 3,128 [11]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The US soybean price was supported by multiple factors, and the domestic meal basis strengthened. The market was also affected by factors such as oil mill shutdowns and import costs [11]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of live pigs 2605 increased by 0.18% to 11,150, and the spot price in Henan increased by 1% to 10,150 [14]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The large - scale slaughter of large pigs, weak demand in the off - season, and low enthusiasm for secondary fattening affected the market [14]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of egg 04 increased by 0.12% to 3,275, and the spot price of eggs in the producing area decreased by 0.58% to 3.10 [16]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The supply of eggs may decline slightly due to factors such as molting and high prices of culled chickens. The demand may improve slightly with the approach of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the macroeconomic expectations are leading, with continuous increases in agricultural product prices, and a reversal of the pig cycle is anticipated [4] - The report emphasizes the need for high-quality development in the industry, suggesting that companies with cost advantages and those that connect with farmers may enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [7] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector saw a 2.0% increase this week, entering a phase of negative net cash flow, with potential for accelerated capacity reduction [6] - Prices have dropped below the cash cost for excellent producers, with the latest pig price at 10.07 yuan/kg as of March 13, 2026, indicating significant cash flow pressure on the breeding side [6][18] - The central government's policy emphasizes comprehensive capacity regulation, aiming to protect farmers' rights while stimulating enterprise innovation [6][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.6 yuan/kg, showing a 1.4% increase week-on-week but a 2.2% decrease year-on-year [20] - The report notes that the avian influenza outbreak in France may lead to a reduction in imported breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [20] - The report suggests focusing on companies with improving ROE and sustainable growth, such as Yisheng and Shengnong Development [20] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group, which plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to over 50% from 2025 to 2027, and aims for a global sales target of 100 million tons by 2050 [21][22] - The domestic industry is expected to recover, with improved management and capacity utilization leading to potential profit growth [22] 4. Pet Industry - The competitive landscape in the pet industry is shifting towards product quality, with brands focusing on addressing pet owners' pain points [23] - The report anticipates a recovery in performance starting from Q2 2026, driven by a reduction in export pressures and a favorable domestic market outlook [23][24] 5. Agricultural Products - The report indicates that macroeconomic factors are driving agricultural product prices upward, with crude oil prices rising significantly due to geopolitical tensions [25] - It suggests focusing on commodities like white sugar, rubber, and soybean meal, as well as related companies benefiting from rising grain prices [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market is volatile and weak. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy for stock index futures, while the domestic equity market may be more resilient than overseas ones. For bond futures, the short - term logic is inflation, and the curve is likely to remain steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [14][15]. - For steel and ore, short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points, and the previous short - straddle strategy should be held. For iron ore, the short - straddle strategy should be maintained, and the 05 - 09 positive spread should take profits around 35 [16][18]. - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips from the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. Be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by the further fermentation of energy sentiment [20]. - For soda ash and glass, the current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory changes and the macro - environment. Zinc should be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset, and short - positions in lead should take profits [24][26]. - Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Egg prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Apple prices are expected to be strong. Corn prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Hog prices are likely to remain at a low level [34][36][39][41][42][43][44]. - Crude oil prices are likely to rise due to supply shortages. Fuel oil is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Polyolefin prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Rubber trading should be cautious, and pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Synthetic rubber prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Methanol prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Caustic soda prices are subject to supply - demand factors and should be traded according to the market rhythm. Asphalt prices follow oil prices. PVC prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. The polyester industry chain should be treated with a cautious and bullish attitude. LPG is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil [46][48][49][50][51][53][55][56][58][59]. - Paper pulp prices have short - term support, and attention should be paid to inventory and price increases of finished products. Log prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Urea prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions [61][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was officially released on March 13. The sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from March 14 to 17. The US may launch a 301 investigation against China [8]. - Apple will lower the commission rate in the Chinese App Store from 30% to 25% starting from March 15. The State Council passed the key work division plan for 2026 and studied the negative - list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [8][9]. - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan. The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on March 16, with a reduction of 100 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount [9]. - The US 1 - month core PCE increased by 3.1% year - on - year. The US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%. Saudi Arabia will cut oil production by about 2 million barrels per day [10][11]. - The US attacked Iran's oil export hub, and the global energy market is facing a supply crisis. The global chemical industry is experiencing "large - scale force majeure" [11][12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is weak, with technology stocks adjusting. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to 4095.45 points. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy due to geopolitical risks [14]. 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and loose. The short - term logic of the bond market is inflation, and the curve is steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [15]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Steel orders have improved, but high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points. The iron ore short - straddle strategy should be held [16][18]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon - The absolute price of double - silicon is still high. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, and be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by energy sentiment [20]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - The current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - Geopolitical tensions increase inflationary pressure, and high inventory suppresses prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to inventory and the macro - environment [24]. 3.4.2 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories continue to increase, and consumption is weak. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish and volatile in the short term [26]. 3.4.3 Lead - Lead inventories increase, and prices are weak. Short - positions in lead should take profits [26]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - Prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Pay attention to the "Golden March and Silver April" demand and geopolitical impacts [34]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Global sugar supply forecasts are divided, and domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure [36]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Pay attention to feed prices and chicken inventory [39]. 3.5.4 Apples - High - quality apple prices are expected to be strong. The market is supported by low inventory and pre - holiday demand [41]. 3.5.5 Corn - Prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Pay attention to new - season wheat production and policy grain supply [42]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The market will enter the off - season, and high inventory is a pressure [43]. 3.5.7 Hogs - The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Prices are likely to remain at a low level, and short positions in near - month contracts can be considered [44]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Supply shortages may lead to price increases. The market is facing a supply risk of over 10 million barrels per day [46]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - It is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Pay attention to the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [48]. 3.6.3 Polyolefin - Prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Pay attention to spot market sentiment [49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Trading should be cautious. Pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Consider the impact of conflicts on tire exports and weather conditions [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Pay attention to raw material supply and energy prices [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Pay attention to spring maintenance and Iranian supply [53]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Prices are subject to supply - demand factors. The long - position logic is supply reduction and export growth, while the short - position logic is weak domestic demand and high - priced futures [55]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Prices follow oil prices. Demand is in the off - season, and high prices suppress speculative demand [55]. 3.6.9 PVC - Prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. Pay attention to the reduction and expansion of ethylene production [56]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - contraction expectation is the main trading logic. Pay attention to device maintenance and demand recovery [58]. 3.6.11 LPG - It is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil. Pay attention to supply risks from the Middle East and demand changes [59]. 3.7 Others 3.7.1 Paper Pulp - Prices have short - term support. Pay attention to inventory and price increases of finished products [61]. 3.7.2 Logs - Prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and port inventory changes [61]. 3.7.3 Urea - Prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions. Pay attention to overseas disturbances and domestic policies [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The sugar market is affected by factors such as production expectations in India and Thailand, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The international sugar market is in a bear - market cycle with a relatively loose short - term supply - demand structure, but there is potential for the trading logic of sugar as a bio - energy to be amplified. The domestic sugar market has a neutral - bearish supply - demand situation but is supported by cost and policy expectations [1]. - The jujube market has limited trading information. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices. The current futures price is oscillating strongly, and short - term attention should be paid to the rebound amplitude for short - selling operations [4]. - The natural rubber market has a mix of long and short factors. Overseas production areas are entering the shutdown period, and domestic production areas have good conditions for new - season tapping. The demand from tire enterprises is recovering, and the inventory situation is complex. The synthetic rubber market is mainly affected by the supply of butadiene, and the price is affected by the Middle East conflict [5]. Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the SR605 contract closed at 5447 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.57%, and the SR609 contract closed at 5483 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.66%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was at 14.41 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.14% [1]. - **Important Information**: As of March 11, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume increased by 0.48% year - on - year, sugar production increased by 2.98% year - on - year. Brokerage firm StoneX lowered the forecast of the global sugar supply surplus to 870,000 tons [1]. - **Market Logic**: The international sugar market is affected by production expectations and geopolitical conflicts. The domestic sugar market has a neutral - bearish supply - demand situation but is supported by cost and policy expectations [1]. Jujube - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the CJ605 contract closed at 9095 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the CJ609 contract closed at 9465 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.26% [4]. - **Important Information**: Last week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.99% week - on - week and increased by 7.39% year - on - year. The arrival of vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang market decreased by 3 vehicles [4]. - **Market Logic**: The jujube trees in Xinjiang are in the dormant stage, and there is a possibility of early budding. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices, and the futures price is oscillating strongly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices; enterprises can consider selling hedging operations [4]. Rubber Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: As of March 13, 2026, the RU main contract closed at 16765 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.82%, and the NR main contract closed at 13320 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 2.31% [5]. - **Important Information**: On Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 71 baht/kg, and the cup - rubber price was 58 baht/kg. As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly, and the social inventory decreased slightly [5]. - **Market Logic**: Overseas production areas are entering the shutdown period, domestic production areas have good conditions for new - season tapping, tire enterprise demand is recovering, and the inventory situation is complex [5]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The BR main contract's center of gravity moved up last week, with obvious wide - range oscillations [5]. - **Important Information**: On Friday, the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in the market increased [5]. - **Market Logic**: The BR futures price is mainly affected by the supply of butadiene, which is related to the operation of naphtha cracking to ethylene plants and the Middle East conflict [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - long thinking for RU and NR in the near term; hold BR long positions cautiously [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the repeated conflicts between the US and Iran, the market anticipates a long - drawn - out and attritional war. With the continuous rise in international oil prices and positive news such as Indonesia's B50 biodiesel test and potential US bio - fuel blending regulations, the vegetable oil market should maintain a bullish mindset, and investors can buy on dips [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the macro factor remains the main driver of the market. The market fluctuates sharply, and investors are advised to operate with caution, hold existing long positions carefully, and mainly buy on dips [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 13th, affected by the repeated US - Iran conflicts, the vegetable oil futures prices continued to rise, led by palm oil. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased to varying degrees compared to the previous day, with different changes in positions. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8690 yuan/ton, up 0.67% day - on - day, and the position increased by 7155 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On March 16th, the crude oil price soared. The US attacked Iran's major oil export hub, and Iran launched retaliatory attacks on the energy infrastructure of Israel and some Arab countries. - Indonesia is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel, and there are rumors that the US EPA will issue new renewable fuel blending regulations. - The Malaysian MPOB report shows that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons, production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. - The shipping survey agency ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in February decreased by 21.5% compared to January. - As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.0463 million tons, a weekly increase of 22,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.26%. The inventory of different oils changed differently. - In terms of spot prices as of March 13th, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang decreased by 40 yuan/ton, the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the spot price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 70 yuan/ton. The oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.78 [1][2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to the US - Iran conflict, international oil prices rose above $100, the US soybean oil was consolidating at a high level, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price followed the increase. The news from Indonesia and the US also boosted the BMD palm oil and CBOT soybean oil. Although the international crude oil reserve agency plans to release reserve oil, it does not change the long - term upward trend of crude oil, so the vegetable oil market should maintain a bullish mindset [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold existing long positions in low - priced oils and slightly enter new long positions. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as Y2605 with a resistance level of 9300 and a support level of 8048 [2]. 3.2 Double - meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 13th, due to the warming macro - sentiment and increased macro - funds, and concerns about the受阻 of rapeseed meal imports in the UAE, the double - meal continued to rise sharply. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 2.42% day - on - day, with an increase in position of 2602 lots. The main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2591 yuan/ton, up 3.97% day - on - day, with a decrease in position of 5797 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The US Department of Agriculture's March monthly supply - demand report had little adjustment to supply - demand data. The US soybean ending inventory forecast for the 2025/26 season remained at 350 million bushels, Brazil's soybean production estimate remained at 180 million tons, and Argentina's production forecast was lowered from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons. The global soybean ending inventory for the 2025/26 season was expected to be 125.31 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from February. - The US - Iran conflict may lead to a decline in soybean exports from Brazil and the US in the future, increasing the risk of rising shipping and insurance costs. - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.09 million tons, a 2.3% increase from March 2025. - As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the total domestic imported soybean inventory was 6.1062 million tons, a decrease of 591,300 tons from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 767,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons or 7.96%. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 171,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8500 tons or 130.77%. - In terms of spot prices as of March 13th, the soybean meal spot price was 3439 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal spot price was 2713 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal basis prices also increased. The US soybean April futures crushing margin was - 413 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was - 144 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean April futures crushing margin was 77 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was 345 yuan/ton. The arrival costs of soybeans and rapeseed from different origins were provided [2][3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, international crude oil prices rose strongly, boosting global commodities. The soybean meal market was supported by the high - level operation of US soybeans and the strengthening of Brazilian discounts. There were also many market rumors, increasing the bullish sentiment of funds. The rapeseed meal market was supported by the rise of CBOT US soybeans above 1200 cents and the rumors in the soybean meal market. The technical indicators of the rapeseed meal futures were strong, but there was a risk of stagflation and correction after long - position profit - taking. In the spot market, the soybean meal price increased, and terminal feed enterprises actively replenished stocks. The rapeseed meal price also increased, but terminal procurement was cautious [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Hold existing long positions carefully and mainly buy on dips. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as M2605 with a resistance level of 3278 and a support level of 2710 [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of soybean meal is expected to be strong due to slower shipping from Brazil, tightened domestic supply - demand, and rising costs caused by higher oil prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's shipping and auction situations [8]. - In the short - term, the prices of oils and fats will maintain a high - level volatile trend due to the continuous escalation of the Middle East war. Palm oil and soybean oil are relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is relatively weak. A rolling long strategy is recommended [71]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of March 13, the spot price in East China was 3350 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2605 contract closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 213 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis quote was 05 + 200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply - The March USDA report maintained the production of US and Brazilian soybeans and slightly reduced Argentina's soybean production, with the global soybean harvest pattern continuing. Brazil's soybean harvest progress accelerated, but domestic logistics capacity was mismatched, increasing domestic truck freight and ocean freight. Brazil's slow shipping led to a further downward adjustment of the expected arrival of soybeans in China from March to April, and soybeans and soybean meal were still in a destocking cycle [8]. 3.1.3 Demand - China's pig inventory remained high but entered a seasonal off - peak period, with the pig inventory decreasing month - on - month. Poultry inventory was high, and the addition ratio of soybean meal decreased. Overall, the demand for soybean meal remained high. The purchase sentiment of downstream buyers improved recently, with the national oil mill's soybean inventory slightly decreasing to 572.67 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory slightly increasing to 76.05 million tons [8]. 3.1.4 Cost - Based on the current US soybean price of 1200 cents, a premium of 120 cents, and a 2.9 oil - meal ratio, the theoretical price of soybean meal was 3025 yuan/ton. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans from July to September was 3100 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season was 1218 cents per bushel, and it was expected to rise if oil prices continued to increase. The import crushing profit improved, with the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans around 200 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5 Market Summary - Due to lower - than - expected shipping from Brazil, tightened domestic supply - demand, and rising costs from higher oil prices, the overall price of soybean meal was strong. Attention should be paid to Brazil's shipping and auction situations [8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of March 13, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 550 yuan/ton to 9768 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 278 yuan/ton to 8690 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 155 yuan/ton to 9821 yuan/ton. The corresponding spot prices also increased, and the basis of palm oil and rapeseed oil increased, while that of soybean oil decreased [71][73]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB February report showed that Malaysia's palm oil production and exports both decreased month - on - month, with the end - of - period inventory higher than expected. In March, production increased, but exports also increased significantly due to the transfer of some demand from Indonesia. Indonesia's accelerated B50 biodiesel policy was beneficial to palm oil demand. In China, the palm oil inventory continued to accumulate in February but was expected to destock from March to April [71]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The USDA March report had a neutral impact. Market attention was on the Middle East situation, US soybean demand, and South American soybean production. Positive factors such as China's potential purchase of US soybeans and the expected increase in US biodiesel blending volume supported the price of US soybeans. In China, the soybean inventory was expected to decrease in the first quarter, but the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans after March would limit the further decrease of soybean oil inventory [71]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Middle East war increased the import cost of rapeseed and tightened the domestic supply of rapeseed oil. However, China's reduction of the comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed and the arrival of previously purchased rapeseed from March to May were expected to ease the supply - demand tension [71]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, the continuous escalation of the Middle East war supported the prices of oil and fats. Palm oil and soybean oil were relatively strong, while rapeseed oil was relatively weak. A rolling long strategy was recommended [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ongoing Middle - East conflict, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, is the dominant factor affecting the prices of various commodities, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives [1][21]. - The prices of most energy products are likely to remain high due to supply disruptions and geopolitical risks, while the performance of other commodities varies based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [1][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Trump's warning of a new strike on Iran's oil export hub, combined with the inability to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, leads to a significant oil supply gap. Despite measures like the release of strategic reserves, oil prices are expected to stay high until the strait resumes safe passage. Brent reached $106/barrel, and WTI hit $100/barrel [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The war situation may escalate, and the Strait of Hormuz's normal passage is unlikely to be restored soon. The supply gap in the Middle - East cannot be quickly filled, providing strong price support for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. The total planned production in March is reduced, and commercial inventory pressure is low. Its price will follow crude oil but with relatively limited fluctuations [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Amid the uncertainty of the Middle - East war and the global economy, and with the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metals continue to oscillate at historical highs. Attention should be paid to the interest - rate decisions of multiple central banks this week [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated and closed lower. Concerns about the Middle - East situation and a strong dollar put pressure on prices. Although short - term trading may be supported by spot buying, the risk of price decline is increasing [3]. - **Aluminum**: Despite significant seasonal inventory accumulation in China, overseas shortages are expected to intensify due to production cuts by Middle - East aluminum producers. Aluminum prices are oscillating strongly and have large fluctuations at historical highs [4]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ingot de - stocking is slow, and the fundamental driving force for price increase is insufficient. Geopolitical factors and high energy prices affect LME zinc prices, but the external market can hardly drive the domestic market. The annual surplus expectation remains unchanged [7]. - **Lead**: The high LME aluminum inventory and the open import window lead to the transfer of overseas surplus pressure to China. The supply pressure is slightly increasing, and the futures price is under pressure [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel price is回调, and the market is dominated by short - term trading. The increase in upstream prices supports the mid - stream. The nickel market lacks independent driving factors and is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Tin**: Last week, tin prices declined. The Middle - East conflict and increased inventory put downward pressure on prices. The target price for the decline of Shanghai tin is 350,000 yuan [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is declining, and the market is active. The overall de - stocking speed is slowing down. The futures price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the demand change after the end of export rush in March [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The overall supply is slightly increasing, and the demand is limited. The price is expected to oscillate under cost support [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is dominated by a weak fundamental situation. The factory inventory is continuously accumulating, and the price is expected to remain low and oscillate [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The supply is normal, and the port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand is improving, and the cost support is strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating strongly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - making production is decreasing. The prices are likely to rise due to energy concerns related to geopolitical conflicts [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The international conflict benefits the cost side. The demand is decreasing, and the price is likely to oscillate [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The production cost in the main产区 is high, and the demand has some resilience. The supply is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The international price has risen significantly, and domestic production is high. It is the peak demand season, and the factory inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate under the influence of policies [23]. - **Methanol**: The Middle - East geopolitical risk affects the market. The import volume is reduced, and the port inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is driven by geopolitical factors [24]. - **Styrene**: The cost support is strong. The supply is expected to decrease, and the consumption may weaken [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The increase in crude oil and propylene futures prices supports the market. The trading atmosphere of propylene has improved, while the polyethylene market is cautious, and the polypropylene market has supply reduction expectations and cost support but weak downstream acceptance [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC supply is decreasing, and the inventory is under pressure. The cost is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. The caustic soda inventory is decreasing, and the price is rising. It is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment [27]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices have risen significantly due to the Middle - East situation. The terminal is digesting inventory, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the middle - term [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The new production capacity exerts long - term pressure. The port inventory is increasing, and the supply is worried about decreasing. The downstream also has negative feedback pressure [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber inventory is rising, and the market is affected by the Middle - East situation. The bottle - chip supply is expected to decrease, and the price is dominated by upstream raw materials [30]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: The international oil price increase and geopolitical factors support the cost of soybean - related products. The Brazilian soybean shipment issue also affects the market. The short - term prices are affected by the Middle - East situation, and there may be pressure after the arrival of imported soybeans [34]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The strong crude oil price drives the rise of vegetable oils. The supply of palm oil is expected to tighten, and the soybean import cost has increased. The prices are closely related to the Middle - East situation and the crude oil market [35]. - **Corn**: The US corn price is following the upward trend of crude oil. The domestic non - GMO corn is mainly for feed use. The short - term futures price is affected by geopolitical factors [37]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Pig**: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures price is at a low level. The production capacity reduction is insufficient, and the pig price needs to remain low to promote further capacity reduction. The supply is abundant this year, and long - term long positions can be considered after the basis narrows [38]. - **Egg**: The futures price declined on Friday, and the spot price strengthened on the weekend. The supply of laying hens is expected to decrease in the first half of the year, and the price is likely to rise. Long positions can be considered when the futures premium over the spot narrows [39]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating strongly, and the domestic commercial inventory is decreasing. The supply is expected to be tight, and the demand feedback is average. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the peak season [40]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar production varies in different countries. The domestic market focuses on the expected difference in production. The short - term price faces pressure [41]. - **Apple**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The demand in the northwest region is good, but the quality and inventory in Shandong are problematic. The de - stocking speed may be affected [42]. - **Timber**: The supply may be short in the short - term, the demand is increasing, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating at a low level. The domestic port inventory is high, and the overseas quotation is strong. The long - term cost has some support, and the medium - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [44]. Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market oscillated lower, and the futures index contracts closed down. The Middle - East situation may affect the Fed's interest - rate decision. The RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, supporting the A - share market. It is recommended to adopt a balanced allocation strategy in the medium - term and pay attention to defensive sectors [45]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices fluctuated slightly on March 13. The market may swing between risk aversion and inflation expectations. Strategies such as steepening the 10 - 2Y curve and flattening the 30 - 10Y curve can be considered [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route price has increased, but the actual quotation has declined. The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the shipping companies' price - support measures depend on the actual supply - demand situation [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT May soybean contract rose 22 to close at 1223.75 cents per bushel, a 1.83% increase; the soybean meal 05 contract rose 213 to close at 3128 yuan per ton, a 7.31% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 280 to 3380 yuan per ton, a 9.03% increase; the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 217 to close at 2591 yuan per ton, a 9.14% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 230 to 2630 yuan per ton, a 9.58% increase [3][6]. - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the continuous strengthening of oil prices continue to boost the US soybean market; China and the US are holding the sixth round of economic and trade consultations in France, and attention should be paid to China's subsequent procurement trends of US soybeans; Brazil's export supply remains high, but there are still disturbances due to quarantine issues. In China, the arrival of soybeans in March is relatively small, coupled with the increase in import costs and the logistics disturbances caused by the war, the expectation of supply tightening has increased, leading to a significant strengthening of the Dalian soybean meal, and the rapeseed meal was driven to rise significantly [3][6]. - The Middle - East conflict is still ongoing, and the concern about the energy crisis has intensified, which brings a boost to the US soybean market. China and the US are holding economic and trade consultations in France, and attention should be paid to the relevant agreements on US soybean procurement. The quarantine issues of Brazilian soybeans have brought disturbances. Pay attention to the China - Brazil talks before the end of the month, and subsequent shipments and export supplies may be accelerated. In China, the overall arrival of soybeans in March is relatively small, the supply is tightening, coupled with the increase in import costs and international shipping logistics and other influencing factors, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal closed significantly higher last week. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | Mar 13 | Mar 6 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1223.75 | 1201.75 | 22.00 | 1.83% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 495.00 | 472.00 | 23.00 | 4.87% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 536.00 | 519.00 | 17.00 | 3.28% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 124.27 | 64.41 | 59.85 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3128.00 | 2915.00 | 213.00 | 7.31% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2591.00 | 2374.00 | 217.00 | 9.14% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 537.00 | 541.00 | -4.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3320.00 | 3060.00 | 260.00 | 8.50% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3380.00 | 3100.00 | 280.00 | 9.03% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | 252.00 | 185.00 | 67.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The impact of the March USDA report is generally limited. The data shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 350 million bushels, unchanged from the previous month; the expected soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season is 180 million tons, unchanged, while the market expectation is 179.06 million tons; the expected soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/2026 season is revised down from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, and the market expectation is 48.11 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending March 5, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 457,000 tons, compared with 383,000 tons in the previous week; the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season is 36.49 million tons, with a sales progress of 85.1%, compared with 88.3% in the same period last year; China's net purchase of US soybeans in that week was 83,000 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 10.9 million tons and an unshipped volume of 3.593 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the gross profit of US soybean crushing (the price difference between soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal) was 2.94 US dollars per bushel, compared with 3.04 US dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 313.88 US dollars per short ton, compared with 321.92 US dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 64.61 cents per pound, compared with 60.61 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.98 US dollars per bushel, compared with 11.59 US dollars per bushel in the previous week [8]. - According to the Conab institution, as of March 7, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 50.6%, compared with 41.7% last week and 60.9% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 48.5%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 89.2%, compared with 81.3% last week and 91.7% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in Paraná was 46%, compared with 37% last week and 60% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in South Mato Grosso was 61%, compared with 50% last week and 70% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the expected soybean exports in March were 16.47 million tons, compared with the previous estimate of 16.09 million tons and 15.7 million tons in the same period last year [8]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that as of the week ending March 11, 2026, in terms of crop conditions, the proportion of normal and excellent crops was 76%, compared with 74% in the previous week and 75% in the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine production area will be around the normal level, which is conducive to stabilizing the current production forecast [9]. - As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.7267 million tons, a decrease of 240,200 tons from last week and an increase of 2.0257 million tons compared with the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 760,500 tons, an increase of 59,300 tons from last week and an increase of 167,600 tons compared with the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.3064 million tons, an increase of 1.3912 million tons from last week and an increase of 1.3204 million tons compared with the same period last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 5.794 million tons, a decrease of 506,000 tons from last week and an increase of 1.7912 million tons compared with the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending March 13, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 168,700 tons, of which the spot trading volume was 141,100 tons and the forward trading volume was 27,600 tons. The average daily total trading volume in the week before the festival was 88,600 tons; the weekly average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 177,120 tons, compared with 158,100 tons in the week before the festival; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9694 million tons, compared with 1.833 million tons in the week before the festival; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 8.64 days, compared with 9.14 days in the previous week [10]. 3.3 Industry News - According to foreign media institutions, as of March 6, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 47.4%, compared with 58.7% in the same period last year and 52.6% in the same period in 2024. The average harvest progress in the same period in the past five years was 47.8%. In the past week, the soybean harvesting work in various parts of Brazil has advanced steadily. The rainfall in some central and southern parts of Brazil has decreased, which is conducive to field operations. Although the harvesting speed has slowed down compared with the previous two years, it is still consistent with the five - year average level. The yield fluctuates greatly, but overall, the harvest situation is good [11]. - The Agricultural Economics Institute of Mato Grosso State released that as of March 6, the soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season in the state had reached 89.15% of the planted area, lower than 91.84% in the same period last year and higher than the historical average of 81.99% in the same period. It is predicted that the soybean production in the state in the 2025/26 season will be 50.5 million tons, a 0.74% decrease from the record - high production last year [12]. - According to the latest report of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), after the dry weather in January, the timely rainfall in February stabilized the crop conditions in Argentina, and the estimated soybean production in the 2025 - 26 season remains at 48 million tons. FAS said in the report: "In the critical stage of crop development, some second - season soybean crops may have been affected by the drought in January, but the precipitation in February should alleviate some of the yield losses caused by the January drought, but not all." If FAS's estimate is realized, the soybean production in Argentina this year will be 5% less than 51.1 million tons in the 2024 - 25 season. However, this will still be the fourth - highest level in the past 10 years [12]. - According to the European Commission, as of March 8, the import volume of rapeseed in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 3.01 million tons, compared with 4.72 million tons last year. The import volume of palm oil in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 1.99 million tons, compared with 2.02 million tons last year [12]. - The IMEA institution released that in the past week (from February 27 to March 6), the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso State, Brazil was 662.00 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 676 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous period. The price of 46% protein soybean meal in Mato Grosso State was 1601.53 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 1590.03 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous period. The average price of soybean oil in Mato Grosso State was 5786.25 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 5815.00 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous period. The average price of soybeans in Mato Grosso State was 102.43 Brazilian reals per bag, compared with 102.52 Brazilian reals per bag in the previous period [13]. - According to foreign media reports, the soybean harvesting work in various parts of Paraná State, Brazil has reached a climax. Some areas have completed the harvest, while some areas are in the final stage of harvesting. The dry weather has enabled the harvesting work to proceed smoothly, and significant progress has been made in mechanical operations. The Agricultural Economics Department of Paraná State (Deral) attributes this situation to the irregular rainfall and temperature fluctuations throughout the growing season. For crops in the pod - filling stage, the recent drought has led to water shortages. In other areas, the recent rainfall has temporarily interrupted field operations [13]. - The Brazilian National Petroleum Company plans to auction about 20 million liters of diesel in Rio Grande do Sul State to address the market's concern about fuel shortages and relieve the harvest pressure on farmers. The impact of rising diesel prices has been felt globally, and the Brazilian agricultural sector is the first to be affected. Since Brazil is currently in the harvest season of record - high soybeans and farmers also need to sow second - season corn crops in a timely manner, agricultural machinery and transportation are highly dependent on diesel. Therefore, the increase in fuel costs will significantly increase production expenses and affect the operation progress. One of the purposes of this auction is to ease market sentiment and replenish the supply in the short term [14]. - The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that the climate system will change from the La Niña phenomenon to a neutral state within the next month, and this state will last until the end of spring, and then change to the El Niño phenomenon in summer. The probability of the El Niño phenomenon occurring from June to August is 62%. The El Niño phenomenon usually brings wet and cold weather to the southern states, while the northern regions are warmer and drier [14]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange decided to maintain the estimated production of soybeans and corn in the 2025/26 season unchanged. Although there were drought concerns in some areas before, the extensive rainfall in February significantly improved the crop conditions in major agricultural production areas. Currently, it is expected that the soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/26 season will be 48 million tons, and the corn production will be 62 million tons, both consistent with the previous forecasts [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the management fund's net position in the CBOT, the soybean meal main contract trend, the spot prices of soybean meal in different regions, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the M 5 - 9 month - spread of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil, the crop conditions of soybeans in Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory in ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [15][16][17][18][20][22][24][26][28][31][32][34][36][38][40][44][46]