Report Summary 1. Market Overview - Global capital markets experienced significant volatility and divergence, influenced by Trump's tariff threats and yen fluctuations. The VIX index rose slightly, the yen strengthened after depreciation, the US dollar declined sharply, US and Japanese stocks faced pressure, while gold and silver reached new highs. The RMB appreciated, A - shares continued to correct and diverge, and the BDI index soared. Commodities showed increased differentiation [5][10]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rebounded, stock indices showed mixed performance, and commodity sectors remained strong with continued divergence. The growth - style stocks outperformed the value - style. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly increase of 10.07%, with 6 out of 10 commodity sectors rising and 4 falling [6][16]. 2. Fed Interest Rate Expectations - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% in January remains at 95.4%, and the probability of a 25 - bp cut to 3.25 - 3.5% is 4.6%. The market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts in 2026. The Fed's interest - rate decision is expected to keep the rate unchanged, and investors will focus on dissenting votes and accompanying statements to assess future rate - cut timing and rhythm [7][67]. 3. Sector Analysis 3.1 Capital Flows - The commodity futures market saw a significant overall inflow of funds last week. The non - ferrous metals, chemical, and precious metals sectors had the most obvious inflows, while the agricultural products sector had a significant outflow [18]. 3.2 Variety Performance - Most domestic commodity futures rose last week. The top - rising varieties were lithium carbonate, platinum, and Shanghai silver, while the top - falling ones were glass, live pigs, and iron ore [22]. 3.3 Volatility Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased, the Wind Commodity Index's volatility increased, and the Nanhua Commodity Index's volatility decreased. Among sectors, the coal - coking - steel - ore and grain sectors had significant volatility declines, while the chemical and oil - and - fat sectors had notable increases [25]. 4. Macro Logic 4.1 Stock Market - The four major domestic stock indices continued to correct and diverge last week. Growth - style stocks were stronger, and value - style indices declined. The valuation changes of stock indices diverged, and the equity risk premium (ERP) was at a one - year low [30][31]. 4.2 Commodities - Commodity price indices rose strongly, and inflation expectations rebounded strongly. The performance difference between commodities and stocks increased, and the difference between domestic and international commodity futures returns changed little [40][47]. 4.3 US Treasury Bonds - US Treasury yields showed mixed performance, with little change in maturity. The term spread fluctuated narrowly, real interest rates were under pressure, and the gold price reached a new high. US Treasury rates rose, the China - US spread narrowed, inflation expectations increased, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar index declined, and the RMB strengthened [57][60]. 4.4 US Economic Indicators - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" was strong, the Citi Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M Treasury spread widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [62]. 5. Central Bank Policies 5.1 Fed - The Fed is likely to maintain the interest rate in January, and the market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][67]. 5.2 Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. The yen depreciated significantly and approached 160 against the US dollar. The market expects joint US - Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market [71][72]. 6. Impact of Yen Fluctuations - The yen's sharp fluctuations, especially rapid appreciation, can lead to the unwinding of global yen carry trades, resulting in tightened global market liquidity and asset - price volatility. It has different impacts on various asset classes, such as being negative for global bonds and stocks, positive for safe - haven assets, and causing oscillations and differentiation in commodities [85][86]. 7. Upcoming Events - This week, important economic data and central - bank meetings include US durable - goods orders, German business climate index, Canadian and Brazilian central - bank rate decisions, and the Fed's FOMC meeting [89].

中新网重庆1月26日电 (张旭)从舌尖上的泰国榴莲、重庆奉节脐橙到农机、汽车、航材等多个产业， 2025年，重庆与东盟的经贸合作持续加深。 1月26日，重庆海关副关长、新闻发言人陈海在重庆市政府新闻办举行的新闻发布会上介绍，2025年， 重庆对东盟进出口1326.5亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长12.6%，占全市外贸总值的16.6%。东盟继续保 持重庆第一大贸易伙伴地位。 图为重庆海关所属重庆港海关关员在查验进口的老挝香蕉。重庆海关供图 重庆与东盟的经贸往来，并不仅仅局限于食农产业。 近日，在位于重庆江津的威马农机股份有限公司厂房内，一组联合收割机完成"打包"，准备发往东盟。 该公司外贸部负责人告诉中新网记者，公司所设泰国工厂有190余名员工，其中当地员工占八成以上。 2025年5月，长安汽车泰国工厂亦已竣工投产。 陈海介绍，重庆海关持续深化与新加坡关税局的关际合作，推出了中新(重庆)数字边境信息互联项目、 新加坡航空(重庆)保税航材分拨中心等合作成果。 陈海称，据海关统计，2025年，重庆与超七成的东盟国家的贸易实现两位数以上增长。 提及东盟，很多重庆市民的第一印象是各类特色水果。1月24日，首批西部陆海新 ...

大宗商品周度报告 2026年1月26日 ●展望：美国PCE数据小幅回升，降息预期进一步降温。随着日元贬值和 日债的压力，美元指数上周大幅回调，格陵兰岛冲突的降温也提振市场风险 偏好。伊朗局势带来的不确定性对贵金属和能化形成利好，短期商品市场或 震荡偏强。 ●行情回顾：商品市场上周整体收涨2.08%，其中贵金属领涨9.08%，有 色和能化分别上涨2.96%和1.95%，农产品和黑色微跌0.04%和0.53%。 地缘扰动不断 短期商品或震荡偏强 具体品种收盘价来看，涨幅居前的品种为白银、PTA和黄金，涨幅分别 为11.04%、8.57%和7.74%；跌幅较大的品种为玻璃、生猪和铁矿石，跌 幅分别为3.54%、3.46%和2.09%。 商品市场20日平均波动率继续上升，其中苯乙烯、生猪和黄金波动较 大。资金方面，全市场上周规模继续增加，仅黑色板块为资金流出，其中黄 金和白银分别入金244和127亿。 黑色方面，螺纹表需小幅回落，产量有所回升，库存再次累积。钢厂利 润欠佳，复产节奏有所扰动，铁水产量基本持平，短期预计难有显著增加。 原材料方面，铁矿石国内港口库存大幅增加并保持累增趋势，结构性矛盾有 待缓解。焦煤盘面对 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The USDA has raised global corn, wheat, and soybean production forecasts for January 2026, indicating an increase in supply and a tightening of the global supply-demand gap for corn [7][36] - The report highlights that the domestic market is currently active due to the traditional peak selling season for corn, with strong price support expected [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - Global corn production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 1.296 billion tons, an increase of 65.15 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 13.05 million tons [14] - Global corn consumption is projected at 1.3 billion tons, up 48.21 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.62 million tons [14] - The ending stock for global corn is estimated at 290.91 million tons, a decrease of 3.79 million tons from 2024/25, but an increase of 11.76 million tons month-on-month [14] - The corn stock-to-use ratio is 19.3%, down 1.16 percentage points from 2024/25 but up 0.75 percentage points month-on-month [14] Wheat - Global wheat production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 842.17 million tons, an increase of 41.36 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 4.36 million tons [36] - Global wheat consumption is projected at 823.91 million tons, up 13.05 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.94 million tons [36] - The ending stock for global wheat is estimated at 278.25 million tons, an increase of 18.25 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 3.38 million tons [36] - The wheat stock-to-use ratio is 26.7%, up 1.20 percentage points from 2024/25 and up 0.27 percentage points month-on-month [36] Soybeans - Global soybean production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 426 million tons, a decrease of 1.47 million tons from 2024/25, but with a month-on-month increase of 3.14 million tons [6] - Global soybean consumption is projected at 423 million tons, up 9.63 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.29 million tons [6] - The ending stock for global soybeans is estimated at 124 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 2.04 million tons [6] - The soybean stock-to-use ratio is 20.4%, down 0.26 percentage points from 2024/25 but up 0.30 percentage points month-on-month [6]

截至26日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1772.23点，较前一交易日上涨62.85点，涨幅3.68%；中证商品期货指数收报2443.85点，较前一交易日上涨 86.67点，涨幅3.68%。 贵金属继续飙升双轮驱动油气强势走高 1月26日商品市场的热点仍在持续火热的贵金属市场以及近期快速反弹的能化板块。截至收盘，除沪银飙升近13%领涨商品市场以外，铂、钯分别跟涨超 9%、8%，金价涨幅虽不足4%，但仍历史性首次触及1150元／克上方。近期除了地缘局势继续给贵金属带来避险买盘以外，美国总统特朗普周末对加拿大的 关税威胁，进一步强化了市场"卖出美国"的交易倾向，加上美日联手干预日元贬值令美元兑日元汇率单日大跌，也加剧了美元的跌势。此外，市场对美联储 潜在新任主席人选的鸽派政策倾向或加速美联储宽松的押注，亦构成了强化贵金属看涨热情的重要利多。因此，环顾整个市场，对于贵金属而言，除了过于 一致的看涨预期可能成为潜在风险以外，市场暂时没有看到真正构成遏制贵金属多头热情的实际因素。在此背景下，即便机构多将短线获利回吐视为贵金属 价格波动的诱因，但仍维持对贵金属多头配置的策略建议。 贵金属市场火热也带动资金开始向估值洼 ...

"关税减免带来的是真金白银的实惠。"延边可喜安生物科技有限公司厂长韩龙哲表示，该公司最近从韩 国进口了一批液体自动包装机关键部件，在延吉海关"一对一"政策辅导下，顺利适用中韩自贸协定关税 减免政策，实现零关税通关，单批次节省税款4.4万元。 依托"单一窗口"和智慧海关建设成果，延吉海关持续提升贸易便利化水平，推动原产地证书申领、审 核、打印等业务流程提速，企业通关时间和申报成本明显下降。同时，通过大数据筛选潜力企业，开展 精准化政策辅导，提升协定利用率。 此外，围绕吉林特色产业发展需求，延吉海关对松茸等"鲜活易腐"农产品实施分类监管、快速验放，助 力吉林优质产品更高效进入韩国市场。 中新网吉林延吉1月26日电 (记者 郭佳)记者26日从延吉海关获悉，近五年，延吉海关累计签发中韩自贸 协定原产地证书近2000份，签证货值约5.6亿元，有效降低企业对韩贸易成本，为吉林企业拓展韩国市 场提供了有力支撑。 1月26日，延吉海关关员在业务大厅为企业讲解中韩自贸协定规则及原产地标准等政策。(延吉海关供 图) 中韩自贸协定生效十年来，延吉海关立足吉林延边毗邻韩国的区位优势，围绕机械设备进口、特色农产 品出口等重点领域，持续 ...

中国发展网讯本周青岛市价格认证和监测中心价格监测显示，全市大米价格微跌，油料价格平稳，生 猪、鸡蛋、蔬菜价格均有所上涨。 五花肉平均价格为14.23元,较上周下跌0.28%，较上月同期上涨1.37%，较去年同期下跌17.45%；精瘦肉 平均价格为14.75元，较上周上涨0.93%，较上月同期上涨1.50%，较去年同期下跌12.71%；牛肉平均价 格为37.70元，较上周上涨0.27%，较上月同期上涨0.24%，较去年同期上涨8.65%；羊肉平均价格为 41.50元，与上周持平，较上月同期上涨0.70%，较去年同期下跌2.01%。 鸡蛋价格上涨 鸡蛋平均价格为4.04元，较上周上涨8.27%，较上月同期上涨11.65%，较去年同期下跌19.44%。从所监 测市场情况看，本周鸡蛋最高价格为4.40元，最低价格为3.80元。 蔬菜价格上涨 从批发市场情况看，城阳、华中、抚顺路三大蔬菜批发市场蔬菜平均批发价格为2.61元，较上周上涨 2.27%，较上月同期上涨4.57%，较去年同期上涨8.12%。本周批发市场日均上市量为175.05万公斤，较 上周减少5.10%，较上月同期减少12.43%，较去年同期增加1.39%。 ...

省政府工作报告 首提"媒体 +"！ 清远"媒体+产 业"让粤味珍品 更加响亮_南方 +_南方plus 1月26日上午， 广东省十四届人 大五次会议开 幕。省政府工作 报告显示，2025 年，广东农林牧 渔业总产值增长 4.9%， "百千万 工程"实现三年 初见成效。报告 重点提及，过去 一年，"媒体 +"助力农产品品 牌升级、销量攀 升。 2025年，"媒体 +"成为了农产品 品牌升级的一大 密码。然而在清 远，"媒体+"早 不是新鲜词，近 年来，清远 以"媒体+"赋能 农产品的实践早 已落地生根、硕 果盈枝，通过创 新模式激活产业 动能，不仅让西 牛麻竹笋、英德 红茶、连州菜心 等特色农产品走 出深山、享誉内 外，更推动"粤 味珍品·清远好 食材"质效双 升，为乡村振兴 注入强劲活力。 "媒体+"聚力西牛麻竹笋产业高质量发展行动方案发布仪式。 2025年7月，广 东省出台《"媒 体+"赋能"百千 万工程"农产品 市场体系建设行 动方案》后，清 远不仅快速制定 了市级总体实施 方案，更聚焦已 破百亿产值的西 牛麻竹笋，这是 广东全省首个为 百亿规模级农业 产业制定的"媒 体+"赋能"百千 万工程"行动方 案。 ...

Industrial Sector - In January, daily average pig iron production and float glass operating rates remained stable, while asphalt and some chemical products saw a decline in operating rates[4] - The apparent demand for major steel products decreased, while cement clinker capacity utilization increased[4] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires increased, while full-steel tire operating rates declined[20] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 38.5% year-on-year as of January 23, with a similar decline of 38.6% for the month of January[21] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.93% week-on-week, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points from the previous value[25] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars from January 1 to 18 dropped by 28% year-on-year, with a slight expected increase of 0.3% for the entire month due to the Spring Festival timing[29] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 34.5% year-on-year as of January 16, a decline of 3.3 percentage points from the previous value[33] - The volume of postal express deliveries decreased by 5.4% year-on-year as of January 18, a drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous value[32] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.4% year-on-year as of January 18, an improvement of 1.7 percentage points from the previous value[35] - Container throughput at ports rose by 7.6% year-on-year, also showing an increase from previous values[35] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 1.1%, while the Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index fell by 0.9% and the Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Index increased by 3.0%[36] - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 1.7% week-on-week[40]

国投安信期货： 农业农村部副部长张兴旺在国新办新闻发布会上表示，2025年粮食增产主要来自东北三省、内蒙古和新疆，从品种上看，增量主要是玉米。但现 阶段随着可售粮源逐步减少，叠加节前补库需求，价格相对偏强。未来继续跟进东北售粮进度以及玉米小麦等拍卖情况，短期大连玉米期货以震 荡为主，注意风险。 美国玉米主产州未来6-10日，25%地区有较高的把握认为气温将高于历史中值，15%地区有较高的把握认为降水量将高于历史中值。 机构观点 消息面 美国农业部：截至1月15日当周，美国2025/2026年度玉米出口净销售为401.1万吨，前一周为114万吨；2026/2027年度玉米净销售0万吨，前一周为 0.1万吨；美国2025/2026年度玉米出口装船143.4万吨，前一周为155.6万吨。 作物专家迈克尔.科尔多涅博士维持巴西和阿根廷玉米产量预测不变，分别为1.37亿吨和5600万吨。AgRural称，巴西二季玉米播种1.1%，远远落 后于去年同期的6.7%。 东海期货： 全国玉米市场价格盘整，国内玉米均价2326元/吨。目前市场心态普遍较好，市场购销活跃。节前基层及贸易端出货意愿增强，下游玉米原料库存 偏低，节前饲 ...