| | 国内工业硅价格 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牌号/地区 | 地区综合 价格 | 波动 | 553 | 波动 | 441 | 波动 | 421 | 波动 | 3303 | 波动 | | 新疆 | 8840 | 0 | 8600-8900 | 0 | 8900-9100 | 0 | 9000-9300 | 0 | 9800-10300 | 0 | | 云南 | 10020 | 0 | 9400-9600 | 0 | 9600-9900 | 0 | 9900-10100 | 0 | 10500-10600 | 0 | | 福建 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 四川 | 9900 | 0 | --- | --- | --- | --- | 9800-10000 | 0 | --- | --- | | 全国综合价格 | 9196 | 0 | 8764 | 0 | 91 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, and the futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment, with short - term expectations of wide - range fluctuations. For the long - term, no clear view is given [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the spot trading is average, and the quotation is relatively stable. In August, the supply side has a large increase, and the downstream production schedule has a slight increase. The market is greatly affected by the anti - involution policy, with large short - term fluctuations and expectations of wide - range shocks. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [3][6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On August 12, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 9050 yuan/ton and closed at 8840 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton (- 1.12%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 278,860 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,658 lots, a decrease of 102 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9900 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon and 99 silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8700 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1]. - **Demand Side**: The price of silicone DMC was 11500 - 12500 yuan/ton. Recently, the silicone price has weakened. The main reason is the lack of downstream orders, so downstream enterprises mainly consume inventory, with low willingness to purchase new products and a significant decline in new order volume [1]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 52800 yuan/ton and closed at 51800 yuan/ton, a change of 0.69% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136,055 lots (139,739 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 481,809 lots [3]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 23.30 (a month - on - month change of 1.75%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.11GW (a month - on - month change of 5.29%). The weekly polysilicon output was 29,400 tons (a month - on - month change of 10.94%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW (a month - on - month change of 9.27%) [3]. - **Demand Side**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.55 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece. The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W. Anhui Jiaokong Resources Co., Ltd. issued a tender announcement for 120.28MW photovoltaic components for a highway EPC project, with an estimated contract value of 85 million yuan and a unit price of 0.71 yuan/W [3][5]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Range trading [2]. - **Inter - delivery**: None [2]. - **Inter - commodity**: None [2]. - **Futures - cash**: None [2]. - **Options**: None [2]. Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading; medium - to - long - term buying on dips [6]. - **Inter - delivery**: None [6]. - **Inter - commodity**: None [6]. - **Futures - cash**: None [6]. - **Options**: None [6].

Group 1: Research View - On August 12, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.12%. The position increased by 6,917 lots to 279,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 150 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,800 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.69%. The position decreased by 3,684 lots to 136,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials also dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 6,005 yuan/ton [2]. - The north and south of industrial silicon continued to resume production, and the downstream crystalline silicon production increased significantly. The supply and demand showed a double - increase pattern, and it will continue to fluctuate following the sentiment of coking coal in the short term. Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in many provinces put forward a joint initiative against involution. In the short term, relevant news may become an important driver for the industrial silicon futures market [2]. - After the polysilicon futures market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market traded on a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit is relatively obvious. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,940 yuan/ton on August 11 to 8,905 yuan/ton on August 12, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 8,860 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - The spot prices of most grades of industrial silicon remained stable, except for some minor price increases in the 421 grade in certain regions. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened from 90 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton [4]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 102 to 50,658 (daily), and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 880 to 251,700 tons (weekly). The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,100 tons to 444,000 tons [4]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 52,985 yuan/ton on August 11 to 51,800 yuan/ton on August 12, a decrease of 1,185 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 52,985 yuan/ton to 50,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,480 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of some polysilicon materials increased, while the prices of P - type polysilicon materials remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 8,485 yuan/ton to 6,005 yuan/ton [4]. - The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 240 to 4,940 (daily). The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons (weekly), and the factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 12,500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of polysilicon [25][27][28]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [33][34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 11, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 9,000 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 4.83%, and the position increasing by 33,258 lots to 272,000 lots. The spot reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon was 9,540 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 90 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main contract 2511 closing at 52,985 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 6.34%, and the position increasing by 2,143 lots to 139,800 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 6,005 yuan/ton. [2] - Industrial silicon production in the north and south continued to resume, and the production of downstream crystalline silicon increased significantly, resulting in a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate following the sentiment of coal and coke. Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in many provinces have put forward a joint initiative against involution, and relevant news may become an important driver for guiding the industrial silicon market in the short term. After the polysilicon market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market is trading a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit is relatively obvious. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices showed different trends on August 11. Industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, and polysilicon fluctuated higher. The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is a double - increase, and it is affected by coal - coke sentiment and industry association initiatives. The polysilicon market is affected by news such as capacity storage. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,585 yuan/ton on August 8 to 8,940 yuan/ton on August 11, an increase of 355 yuan/ton; the settlement price of the near - month contract increased from 8,645 yuan/ton to 8,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. [4] - **Industrial Silicon Spot**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions showed different degrees of increase or remained stable. For example, the price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China increased from 9,100 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon in Xinjiang increased from 8,900 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton. [4] - **Polysilicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 50,790 yuan/ton on August 8 to 52,985 yuan/ton on August 11, an increase of 2,195 yuan/ton; the settlement price of the near - month contract decreased from 50,790 yuan/ton to 50,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton. [4] - **Polysilicon Spot**: The prices of some types of polysilicon increased, such as the price of N - type granular silicon material increasing from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged. [4] - **Organic Silicon Spot**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 13,000 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton. [4] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 420 to 50,760; the weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 880 to 251,700 tons; the factory inventory increased by 4,100 to 272,500 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,100 to 444,000 tons. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,080 to 4,700; the weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons; the factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons. [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [5][7][10] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [13][14][16] - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon. [19][22] - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main producing areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon. [25][27][28] 4.有色金属团队介绍 - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of commodity research experience, mainly responsible for precious metals and serving as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, with in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry and the new energy industry chain; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, with a focus on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy. [33][34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash remains in an obvious oversupply situation, with weakening spot sales recently. In the medium term, after the PV glass capacity growth slows down and the float glass capacity stabilizes, there is still pressure on supply and demand, and there may be further cold repair expectations. It is recommended to wait for a new opportunity to short. [1] - The glass market has seen a significant weakening in the recent market sentiment, and the spot sales have also declined sharply. The inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - men, and the overall spot price is difficult to increase further. It is recommended to hold short positions. [1] Industrial Silicon - Driven by the good atmosphere in the commodity market, industrial silicon has risen. In August, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market both increase, and it is expected to reach a tight balance. If the price drops to 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton, it is advisable to try long positions. [2] Polysilicon - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is larger, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. If there is new progress in capacity integration or clearance, polysilicon is expected to rise again; otherwise, it may fluctuate and decline under the pressure of inventory and warehouse receipts. It is advisable to try long positions at low prices and buy put options to try short positions at high prices. [3] Natural Rubber - In the short term, the positive factors on the supply side are concentrated, and the spot inventory continues to decline. The rubber price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short at high prices if the raw material supply in the peak - production season is smooth. [4] Logs - From a fundamental perspective, last week, due to the reduction of available goods in some specifications and the reluctance of traders to sell, the spot price was continuously raised. The demand remains strong, and the inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China have all declined, while the futures prices of glass 2505 and 2509 have increased. The 05 basis has decreased. [1] - Soda ash: The prices in North China, East China, and Central China remain unchanged, while the price in Northwest China has decreased. The futures prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 have increased, and the 05 basis has decreased. [1] Supply - The soda ash production rate and weekly output have increased, while the float glass daily melting volume and PV glass daily melting volume remain unchanged. [1] Inventory - The glass inventory and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories have all increased, while the glass factory's soda ash inventory days remain unchanged. [1] Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, completion area, and sales area have all decreased, while the growth rate of under - construction area has decreased significantly. [1] Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon have all increased, while the corresponding bases have decreased. [2] Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2508 - 2509, 2510 - 2511, and 2511 - 2512 have decreased, while the spreads of 2509 - 2510 and 2512 - 2601 have increased. [2] Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon output, national and regional production rates, and exports have increased, while the organic silicon DMC output has decreased. [2] Inventory - The Xinjiang factory inventory has decreased slightly, while the Sichuan factory inventory and social inventory have increased slightly. [2] Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type re - feeding material, N - type granular silicon, and other products remain unchanged, while the N - type material basis has decreased significantly. [3] Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract price has increased, while the spreads of "current month - first - continuous" and "first - continuous - second - continuous" have changed significantly. [3] Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly polysilicon production, export volume, and net export volume have increased, while the import volume has decreased. The silicon wafer production has changed in different periods. [3] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory, silicon wafer inventory, and polysilicon warehouse receipts have all increased. [3] Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber have increased, while the prices of cup rubber, glue, and some raw materials in Xishuangbanna have dropped to zero. The basis and non - standard price difference have decreased. [4] Monthly Spread - The spreads of 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 have decreased, while the spread of 5 - 9 has increased. [4] Fundamental Data - In June, the production of Thailand and India increased, while the production of Indonesia decreased. The tire production and natural rubber import volume in China increased, while the tire export volume decreased. The production cost and profit of Thai dry rubber have changed. [4] Inventory - The bonded area inventory has decreased, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory has increased. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao have changed. [4] Logs Futures and Spot Price - The prices of log futures contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 have increased, while the basis has decreased. The spot prices of some radiation pine and spruce in ports remain unchanged or increase slightly. The new round of foreign quotation remains unchanged. [5] Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and the import theoretical cost remain unchanged. [5] Monthly Data - The port shipping volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea have decreased. [5] Inventory - The inventory in major ports in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu has decreased. [5] Demand - The daily average outbound volume in China remains unchanged, with a slight increase in Shandong and a slight decrease in Jiangsu. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show an increase in both supply and demand, with the overall commodity sentiment remaining strong, leading to a bullish trend in the industrial silicon futures market. For polysilicon, the spot price is relatively stable, but there is significant pressure on inventory accumulation due to a large increase in supply in August and average consumer demand. The futures market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, and in the medium to long term, it is suitable to buy on dips [3][6] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On August 11, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upwards. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,760 yuan/ton and closed at 9,000 yuan/ton, a change of 415 yuan/ton (4.83%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 at the close was 271,943 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,760 lots, a change of 420 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly, with prices in some regions increasing and remaining stable in Kunming. The price of 97 - silicon also remained stable [1] - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 1,1500 - 12,500 (- 150) yuan/ton. The silicone price showed a slight decline, with limited support from the consumer side. The domestic DMC price showed a differentiated trend this week, with some monomer plants offering lower prices to stimulate downstream bottom - up stocking, while others maintained higher prices due to previous orders. The main reason for the price decline was weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 50,600 yuan/ton and closing at 52,985 yuan/ton, a 6.34% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 139,739 lots (137,596 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 592,822 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, and the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers also increased [4] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. After a polysilicon meeting last week, the market is now focusing on downstream and power station meetings this week, and the current production reduction situation of upstream enterprises is undetermined [4][5] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to buy on dips [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply production has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery remains low, and cost support has slightly increased. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8455 - 8855 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production continues to increase. Demand shows a short - term increase in silicon wafer production, a medium - term potential callback, a continuous increase in cell production, and a short - term decrease and medium - term potential recovery in component production. Overall demand is in a state of decline but may rebound later. Cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 48660 - 51560 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply was 81,000 tons, a 1% decrease from the previous week, and demand was 70,000 tons, a 3.40% increase. Polysilicon inventory is high, silicone inventory is low and profitable, and aluminum alloy inventory is high. The comprehensive operating rate of silicone is 70.08%, flat compared to the previous period and lower than the historical average. The cost support in Xinjiang during the flood season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On August 7th, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 445 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 540,000 tons, a 0.93% increase; sample enterprise inventory is 171,450 tons, a 3.41% decrease; major port inventory is 119,000 tons, a 0.83% decrease [6]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions have increased, showing a bearish trend [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, production was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase, and the planned production in August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month. Silicon wafer production decreased last week, cell production increased, and component production decreased slightly. The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, with a profit of 9500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On August 7th, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3110 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease, at a high level in the same period historically, showing a neutral trend [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish trend [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions have decreased, showing a bullish trend [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts have decreased, with the largest decline of 2.02% in the 05 - contract. Spot prices of various types of silicon remain unchanged [16]. - Inventory shows a mixed trend, with social inventory increasing slightly and sample enterprise inventory decreasing [16]. - Production and operating rates: Weekly sample enterprise production has increased, with significant increases in Yunnan and Sichuan samples, while Xinjiang samples have decreased slightly [16]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts have fluctuated, with the largest increase of 1.98% in the 08 - contract. - Silicon wafer production has increased, and inventory has decreased significantly. Cell production and exports have increased, and component production and exports show a mixed trend [18]. 3.3 Other Aspects - The report also includes multiple charts and data on the price, inventory, production, and cost trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon and their downstream products, such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, etc. These data reflect the market conditions from 2018 to 2025 and provide a basis for analyzing market trends and investment opportunities [20][23][25]

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年08月07日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 强支撑位：8200 | 41.9% | -0.09% | 96.6% | -0.2% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 强支撑位：45000 | 48.75% | 2.83% | 85.61% | 1.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，有存货 | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期 货来锁定利润，弥补企业的 ...

Core Points - The 2025 China Silicon Industry Conference is set to take place, attracting participants from government departments, industry associations, major upstream and downstream silicon production enterprises, traders, consumers, equipment manufacturers, auxiliary material producers, financial institutions, research institutes, and media representatives [2] Group 1: Conference Details - The conference offers various promotional opportunities such as display boards, roll-up banners, informational materials, and speaking engagements to enhance corporate visibility and facilitate collaboration [2] - Registration for the conference is free, with member units receiving complimentary conference materials and meal vouchers, while non-member units and excess members are charged 2000 yuan per set for materials and meal vouchers [11] Group 2: Promotional Pricing - The pricing for promotional items includes: - Roll-up banner: 5000 yuan - Material placement: 5000 yuan - Tea break video display: 10000 yuan - Color pages: 6000 yuan - Material bagging: 9000 yuan - Presentation report: 50000 yuan - Name listing: 50000 yuan - Background board (3*3): 15000 yuan - Exhibition fountain: 10000 yuan - Exhibition booth (background board + exhibition table): 20000 yuan [4] Group 3: Contact Information - For registration, contact Zhang Bo at 15587104501, for promotional inquiries contact Zhang Fan at 18001036278, and for accommodation inquiries contact Li Peiyao at 18611884979 [14][17]

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 8 月 6 日） 工业硅日报 一、研究观点 点评 5 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 8450 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.02%，持 仓减仓 24386 手至 15.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9440 元/吨，较 上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格回落至 8800 元/吨，现货升水 收至 310 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 50330 元/吨，日内 涨幅 3.88%，持仓增仓 20838 手至 12.8 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价 格跌至 44500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 44500 元/吨，现货贴水 扩至 4325 元/吨。多晶硅政策预期见顶、估值出现瓶颈，市场关注转向 产业供应压力和需求弱态结构，现货锚定成本定价，期货中枢跟随高 品仓单溢价，产能整合动态消息给予盘面阶段升水。在多晶硅产能集 中整合和工业硅西南复产节奏中，持续跟踪空 SI 多 PS 机会。工业硅将 以电价补贴取消后成本为基准，西南复产成为边际驱动项。重点关注 政策落地情况，警惕产能收储或电价改革延迟，多头情绪下的退潮踩 踏风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部 ...