12月26日盘中，胶版印刷纸期货主力合约震荡上行，最高上探至4108.00元。截止收盘，胶版印刷纸主 力合约报4108.00元，涨幅1.48%。 胶版印刷纸期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 基本面看，供应端产能利用率微降至52.5%，但生产企业库存环比增至139.3万吨，供应充裕与需求疲软 的矛盾依旧。成本端受木浆价格上涨影响，纸厂亏损压力加剧。实际走势已突破原预测区间，短期强势 或延续，策略上可转为偏多思路，关注价格在4060附近能否站稳形成新支撑，上方压力参考前期高点。 风险在于高库存下需求若持续疲软，价格可能回踩确认支撑。 瑞达期货：双胶纸区间操作 供应端，本期双胶纸产量20.4万吨，较上期减少0.1万吨，降幅0.5%，产能利用率52.4%，较上期下降 0.1%。库存端，截至2025年12月25日，本期双胶纸生产企业库存139.5万吨，环比增幅0.1%。OP2602合 约建议下方关注3900附近支撑，上方4100附近压力，区间操作。 中原期货 胶版印刷纸短期强势或延续 瑞达期货（002961） 双胶纸区间操作 中原期货：胶版印刷纸短期强势或延续 机构 核心观点 ...

Core Viewpoint - 弘业期货 is a significant player in the futures market, with a focus on various financial services, and has recently experienced a decline in revenue and profit margins [2][7]. Company Overview - 弘业期货股份有限公司 primarily engages in commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, futures investment consulting, asset management, fund sales, and financial asset investment [2][7]. - The company is the first A+H share listed company in the futures industry and is controlled by the Jiangsu Provincial Government's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [3][7]. - As of September 30, 2025, 弘业期货 reported a revenue of 462 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 76.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.09 million yuan, down 87.27% year-on-year [7]. Financial Performance - The company has a market capitalization of 10.703 billion yuan and a trading volume of 115 million yuan with a turnover rate of 1.42% [1]. - The average trading cost of the stock is 11.30 yuan, with the current stock price near a resistance level of 10.69 yuan, indicating potential for upward movement if the resistance is broken [6]. - The company has distributed a total of 44.3422 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [8]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders is 54,400, a decrease of 13.10% from the previous period [7]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 1000 ETF, with notable reductions in their holdings [8].

自2023年以来，国海良时期货始终牢记金融机构社会责任，积极响应国家乡村振兴战略号召，以"党建引领、产业赋能"为核心思路，聚焦浙江省杭州市淳安 县特色产业发展需求，通过签订帮扶协议、捐赠资金、开展技能培训等多元举措，助力破解当地产业发展瓶颈，为农户增收致富注入金融力量，用实际行动 诠释期货行业服务实体经济、助力乡村振兴的使命担当。 一、精准对接淳安县百照村：破解高山蔬菜产销瓶颈，激活集体经济新动能 淳安县金峰乡百照村地处山区，平均海拔近400米，独特的地理气候条件孕育出品质优良的高山蔬菜。2021年，百照村村集体立足资源优势，正式运营泽塘 里自然村高山蔬菜种植基地，基地占地面积30亩，重点培育百照羊角辣椒、高山毛豆等特色品种。凭借原生态种植方式和鲜嫩口感，基地蔬菜一经上市便广 受市场青睐，2021年至2023年期间累计产出蔬菜4万余斤，实现销售额8.5万元，成为村集体经济增收的重要支柱，也为当地村民提供了就近就业的机会。 2025年4月22日，国海良时期货党总支副书记、总经理唐见国带队赴安上村开展党建与乡村振兴活动。在座谈会上，唐见国与安上村书记李新竹，以及其他 村干部、村民代表、相关工作人员齐聚一堂，围绕村 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Based on the performance of various sectors in 2025, the report provides technical analysis and risk management guidelines for different sectors in 2026, emphasizing the need for refined and differentiated risk management strategies due to the significant differentiation in sector trends and price fluctuations [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **2025 Review**: The prices of non - ferrous metals showed significant differentiation in 2025, with most rising but with different fluctuation paths. Volatility varied among different varieties, with lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and nickel having higher volatility [12]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Copper (SHFE)**: In the medium - to - long term, it is still in an upward trend, with the next long - term resistance expected between 100,550 - 101,040 yuan/ton. In the short term, the upward trend is not smooth, and there is a risk of adjustment within the range [28][33]. - **Aluminum (SHFE)**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in an upward cycle, but a strong trend requires a signal. In the short term, there is a lack of a strong upward signal, and there is a risk of short - term correction [39][45]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a bullish trend but lacks verification. In the short term, the sustainability of the upward channel needs further verification, and there is a risk of volatility [50][58]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should focus on "continuing trends but increasing volatility, with significant differentiation in variety strategies", using refined and differentiated strategies for different varieties [62]. 3.2. Black Metals Sector - **2025 Review**: The black metals sector showed an overall oscillatory pattern in 2025, with raw materials more volatile than finished products. Finished products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils were under pressure throughout the year, while raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke showed a pattern of falling first and then rising [67][68]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Rebar**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a downward channel, and technical indicators show no signal of trend reversal. In the short term, it maintains low - level operation, and price fluctuations need attention [83][89]. - **Iron Ore**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a triangular consolidation state, lacking technical indicator signals. In the short term, the center of the oscillation range moves down, and attention should be paid to the lower support range [94][100]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should establish the core of "uncertain overall trend but coexistence of structural risks and opportunities", implementing refined and differentiated strategies [105]. 3.3. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **2025 Review**: The energy cost side represented by crude oil declined throughout the year, dragging down downstream chemical products. There was significant differentiation among varieties, with high volatility in raw materials and building materials and relatively mild volatility in mid - stream chemical products [107][108]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Methanol**: In the medium - to - long term, the long - cycle trend lacks technical guidance, and there is still price volatility. In the short term, attention should be paid to rebound opportunities, but sustainability and strength need more trading days to verify [128][135]. - **PTA**: In the medium - to - long term, the downward trend is not completed, and its sustainability is uncertain. In the short term, there is upward repair momentum, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations near the resistance range [140][148]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should adopt refined management, mainly using interval band operations when the trend is unclear and continuously tracking factors affecting price fluctuations [152][153]. 3.4. Agricultural Products Sector - **2025 Review**: The agricultural products sector showed an overall oscillatory and weak pattern in 2025, with significant differentiation among varieties. Feed raw materials and some varieties showed a downward trend, while sugar showed independent oscillations [154]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Sugar**: In the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of decline. In the short term, attention should be paid to the continuation of the downward trend [170][176]. - **Corn**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a triangular consolidation state, and attention should be paid to short - term price opportunities. In the short term, the oscillation center rises, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations in the downward channel [180][188]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should abandon simple judgments on the overall direction of the sector and formulate differentiated strategies based on the technical forms and volatility characteristics of each variety [193].

年度报告——商品期权 潮有暗涌，择舟而渡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 26 日 ★ 商品期权：市场逐步扩容，谱系趋于完善 2025 年，我国商品期权市场在前期高速发展后，步入精耕细作 的稳步扩容新阶段，全年共上市 8 个新品种，使得商品期权总 数从年初的 53 个增至 61 个，覆盖广度与产业深度均得到进一 步提升。同时期权市场成交活跃，重拾增长动能，全年成交量 创下历史新高，与金融期权市场容量差距进一步缩窄。 ★ 波动率：宏观及市场情绪抬升商品波动水平 商品期权标的期货市场呈现出典型的跌多涨少、宽幅震荡、板 块分化格局。商品市场的共振走势主要源于三大核心驱动，包 括美国关税政策反复、国内"反内卷"政策以及年末贵金属板块行 情，整体商品市场波动显著提升。 波动率交易建议关注历史波动率交易与隐含波动率交易的区 别，二者收益分别来源于 Gamma 与 Vega 维度。此外，期权隐 含波动率并非单一线性的结构，而是一个在行权价 和到期期 限 两个维度上动态变动的复杂曲面，这为投资者提供了波动率 期限套利与偏度套利的机会。 ★ 期权策略推荐 回顾 2025 年，宏观贸易政策剧烈调整、全球风险偏好的变化以 及国 ...

深化产融结合，助力产业发展 ——徽商期货成功举办江南集中区新材料企业交流座谈会 12月23日，由徽商期货公司主办的"江南新兴产业集中区新材料重点企业交流座谈会"在池州市江南新兴 产业集中区管委会成功举行。徽商期货董事长、总经理储进率公司专业团队一行，与区内十余家铝基新 材料领域重点企业负责人就当前市场行情、风险管理及期现结合等议题进行了深入交流，活动包含专题 座谈与企业调研两部分，成效显著。 活动伊始，储进在致辞中表示本次会议旨在深化产融结合，为实体企业提供直面市场波动的金融工具 箱，服务实体经济 。 深化产融结合，助力产业发展 ——徽商期货成功举办江南集中区新材料企业交流座谈会 12月23日，由徽商期货公司主办的"江南新兴产业集中区新材料重点企业交流座谈会"在池州市江南新兴 产业集中区管委会成功举行。徽商期货董事长、总经理储进率公司专业团队一行，与区内十余家铝基新 材料领域重点企业负责人就当前市场行情、风险管理及期现结合等议题进行了深入交流，活动包含专题 座谈与企业调研两部分，成效显著。 活动伊始，储进在致辞中表示本次会议旨在深化产融结合，为实体企业提供直面市场波动的金融工具 箱，服务实体经济 。 专题报告 ...

2025年以来，徽商期货研究所共举办乡村振兴培训活动8场，涵盖了黑龙江省鹤岗市绥滨县、佳木斯市 桦南县，以及安徽省阜阳市颍上县、安庆望江县、六安霍邱县等地，活动提供了20余个不同类型的分享 内容，培训94人次。徽商期货的乡村振兴培训活动开展的几年来，覆盖了全国多个省区，根据不同地区 的农业经济结构、农户实际需求等，设计具有针对性个性化的课程内容，农户们普遍反馈积极，对培训 活动给予好评。 黑龙江：掌握避险知识 灵活运用期货 黑龙江省是全国玉米大豆产量第一的大省，2025年公司农产品研究员先后在黑龙江佳木斯鹤岗市绥滨县 和佳木斯市桦南县进行培训活动，并根据当地特色设计了期货基础知识、套期保值及案例分析、期权及 场外衍生品介绍、大豆玉米的基本面分析框架等培训内容。通过培训，当地农企及种植技术人员对金融 基础知识可谓略窥门径，了解到运用期货价格走向来指导卖粮时机，必要时可以通过交割、点价等方式 方法解决卖粮难的问题，而企业亦可以运用期货工具进行套期保值操作。 安徽：运用实地案例 详解对冲机制 2025年徽商期货研究所在安徽省共举办了6场乡村振兴培训，研究员积极走入乡村，与农民开展现场交 流。其中，在六安市霍邱县开展 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver prices in the domestic market have significantly increased during the Christmas holiday, with the Shanghai silver premium expanding to 1500 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a strong domestic sentiment [4] - The closing price for Shanghai silver futures on December 26 was 18319 yuan per kilogram, showing a daily increase of 6.60% with a trading volume of 985,185 lots and an open interest of 279,608 lots [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai on December 26 was quoted at 18320 yuan per kilogram, which is 1 yuan per kilogram higher than the futures price [3] Group 2 - The overseas market has not followed the domestic trend during the Christmas holiday, and there is potential for further price increases supported by capital [4] - Caution is advised in operations due to the high premium risk associated with silver funds, with suggested trading range for Shanghai silver futures set between 17150 and 19000 yuan per kilogram [4]

股指期权数据日报 投资咨询号:Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/12/26 金融衍生品中心 李泽钜 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 成交量(亿) 820. 76 上证50 28. 27 3032. 8414 0. 25 3853. 56 沪深300 4642. 5357 0. 18 139. 43 7579. 3791 0. 97 228. 74 中证1000 4344. 19 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 认洁期权 日成交量 期权持企量 认购期权 认洁期权 持仓量 指数 持仓量 (万张) (万张) 持仓量 成交量 成交量 PCR PCR 上证50 1. 17 0. 70 0. 60 2. 95 0. 66 1. 88 1. 95 4. 90 5. 58 沪深300 8. 39 2. 81 0. 50 16. 26 6. 64 0. 69 9. 62 中证1000 23. 96 14. 33 0. 67 26. 04 9. 63 13. 09 12. 95 0. 99 中证1000PCR走势 沪 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Lumber, Cotton, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Benzene, Naphtha, Propylene, Butadiene, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the short - term stock index breaking through the previous oscillation range and expected to remain strong. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and policy changes [1]. Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index has broken through the previous oscillation range and is expected to remain strong as the market sentiment and liquidity are good [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, leading to high - level oscillations in copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, resulting in oscillating aluminum prices [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price remains low [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center rising. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is high, but due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove in the short term. The short - term nickel price may oscillate strongly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel - iron price has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The non - ferrous tin industry association has issued an initiative, causing the short - term tin price to oscillate weakly. Considering the tense situation in Congo and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Overseas markets are in the Christmas holiday, and the strong US economic data has weakened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. After reaching a new historical high, the gold price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - **Platinum**: The domestic platinum futures price has a large premium over the spot price and foreign markets, with large expected fluctuations. Rational participation is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production in the northwest has increased while that in the southwest has decreased. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon have decreased in December [1]. - **Polysilicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter, large manufacturers are eager to maintain prices but reluctant to deliver goods, and the short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply side has increased production resumption, and the price has exceeded the previous high. Short - term long - position operations are recommended [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high. Short - selling is not recommended. The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - term contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but with good commodity sentiment, the far - term contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass and Glass Products**: They follow the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand conditions and low valuation. The downward space is limited, and they may oscillate under pressure [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by the domestic major meeting and export policy, the black - sector has declined. After the announcement of the steel - export licensing system, there are signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and the winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound - shorting is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is affected by the decline in the CBOT market and other domestic oils, showing a weak trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term positive factors of raw - material shortage are expected to be exhausted, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the global main producing areas. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, but there is currently no driving force. Future attention should be paid to the government's policies, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a consensus among short - sellers due to the global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous fundamental driving force in the short term [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Affected by snow and rain in the producing areas, the supply is affected, but the spot price is relatively stable. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises are cautious. There is a certain replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is an expectation of a good harvest of soybeans, and the later discount is expected to face selling pressure. Recently, the market has oscillated following reserve - related rumors [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - **Logs**: Affected by the decline in foreign - market quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude - oil exports [1]. - **Bitumen**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The cost of raw materials provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The trading volume of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, the operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a factory shutdown in South Korea, leading to a strong market sentiment [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, the pre - festival stocking and sales of polyester have improved, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, are planned to shut down next month. The ethylene - glycol price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the demand from the polyester downstream is better than expected [1]. - **Benzene and Naphtha**: There is some support from the cost side, the spot - market sentiment has warmed up slightly, and the total inventory remains high without significant de - stocking [1]. - **Propylene**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, the upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, and there is support from anti - involution and the cost side. The maintenance has decreased, the supply has increased, and the downstream demand has weakened. There is an expectation of oversupply in 2026 [2]. - **Butadiene**: The trading volume has improved, and the cost has increased, providing support for downstream products [1]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December [2].