Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Beer maintains its market share growth in H1 2025, actively promoting the high-endization of non-on-trade channels, although increased investment impacts the ton price [1] Company Summary - Carlsberg and Fenghua Xueyue brands are expected to continue strong growth, while 1664 and Wusu canned products also contribute to incremental growth [1] - Increased investment in non-on-trade channels affects the ton price of high-end and mainstream products, despite good growth in economic products mainly due to internal structural upgrades [1] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 104% for 2024, with current market valuations corresponding to PE ratios of 22/21/20X [1] Industry Summary - Continued stimulus from consumption policies is expected to stabilize and restore downstream demand, driving volume and price expansion in the industry [1] - There remains significant upgrade potential in the beer industry in the medium to long term, supported by a complete product matrix and a focus on enhancing organizational capabilities and channel cultivation [1] - A recovery in on-trade demand could accelerate the industry's upgrade rate, with the company's high-end flagship products likely to regain momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of the domestic barley industry in China, driven by China Resources Beer’s "National Barley Revitalization" project, which aims to reduce reliance on imported barley and enhance the quality and production of domestic barley for the brewing industry [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The "National Barley Revitalization" strategy initiated by China Resources Beer in 2021 has led to significant changes in the domestic barley landscape, moving from a reliance on nearly 90% imported barley to a growing domestic production [2][3]. - The project has resulted in a notable increase in the planting area of domestic barley, driven by an order-based agricultural model and collaborative efforts among industry peers [3][4]. - The quality of domestic barley has improved significantly, addressing previous issues such as high protein content and inconsistent quality, which hindered its use in brewing [7][8]. Group 2: Economic and Social Impact - The initiative aligns with national goals for rural revitalization, contributing to farmer income and promoting sustainable agricultural practices [6][9]. - The establishment of standardized planting bases covering over 16,000 acres has been a key achievement, enhancing the quality of domestic barley and supporting the overall development of the beer industry [10][11]. - The launch of the "ESG China National Barley Practice Base" signifies a commitment to integrating ESG principles with agricultural modernization, providing a model for industry development [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - China Resources Beer plans to maintain a stable procurement ratio of around 10% for domestic barley, with expectations for gradual increases as quality continues to improve [8]. - The company emphasizes the importance of domestic barley as a reliable alternative to imported barley, especially in light of global supply chain uncertainties [6][8]. - The successful launch of high-end products like "Keng Fourteen," made entirely from domestic barley, challenges the perception that domestic barley cannot produce quality beer, marking a significant milestone for the industry [7][8].

格隆汇8月18日｜浙商证券研报指出，重庆啤酒上半年归母净利润8.65亿元，同比-4.03%。25Q2归母净 利润3.92亿元，同比-12.70%。经营维持稳健，税率影响利润。公司25年发力非现饮渠道，加强核心市 场深耕，产品结构受餐饮渠道疲软下略有承压。预计25年销量稳中有增、吨价略有承压，公司在发力非 现饮渠道下货折或有提升，25年原料包材采购成本或有显著改善，但所得税率提升或一定程度影响盈利 能力，关注高股息下的基本面改善。当前估值具性价比，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Qingdao Beer Festival in Zibo creatively combines the popular "Zibo Barbecue" with the "Qingdao Beer Festival," offering a unique experience that integrates food, music, culture, and urban atmosphere [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Zibo Qingdao Beer Festival covers an area of 20,000 square meters, merging Zibo's culinary reputation with the high-quality and joyful essence of Qingdao beer [2]. - The festival features a variety of Qingdao beer products, including classic series, Qingdao Pure Draft, white beer, fresh raw beer, and Zibo's unique green Lansa beer, enhancing the culinary experience [2]. Group 2: Activities and Experiences - The festival includes themed nights focusing on different Qingdao beer products, combined with performances, interactive games, and food pairings to provide a diverse and engaging experience for visitors [2]. - The event extends beyond a single venue, with activities and attractions spread across various popular locations in Zibo, encouraging city-wide participation [3]. Group 3: Innovative Consumption Experience - The festival introduces a "backpack beer machine" that serves fresh Qingdao beer throughout the city, allowing visitors to enjoy beer without being confined to a specific drinking area [3]. - A special "beer festival theme bus" is provided for free transportation between key locations, enhancing accessibility for attendees [3]. Group 4: Nationwide Impact - The Qingdao Beer Festival is part of a larger series of events occurring across multiple cities in China, creating a nationwide celebration that brings local consumers together for a unique drinking experience [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [1][4]. Core Views - External positive factors are gradually increasing, and Kweichow Moutai's interim report demonstrates operational resilience. The report indicates that the liquor sector has shown a slight increase of 0.9% this week, with expectations for continued valuation recovery due to policy anticipation [2][11]. - The report highlights three investment themes: companies with strong anti-cyclical performance like Shanxi Fenjiu and Kweichow Moutai, companies with strong cyclical attributes like Luzhou Laojiao, and companies with low inventory burdens like Yingjia Gongjiu [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector rose by 0.49% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.21 percentage points. The top five gainers in the sector included Guifaxiang (28.74%), Angel Yeast (7.52%), Tianwei Food (6.90%), Gujing Gongjiu (6.58%), and ST Tongpu (6.54%) [1][20]. 2. Liquor Sector - Kweichow Moutai's interim report showed a total revenue of 91.09 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 45.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year. The report notes a slight decline in profit margins due to fluctuations in gross and expense ratios, but the company has shown resilience amid industry adjustments [2][11]. - The report suggests that liquor companies will focus on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while emphasizing consumer engagement and internationalization in the medium to long term [2][13]. 3. Consumer Goods - The beer sector is entering a peak season, with a slight decrease in fund holdings in the second quarter of 2025. Yanjing Beer has seen an increase in fund holdings, while other major brands like Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer have seen declines [3][14]. - The snack sector has seen an increase in fund holdings, particularly in Yanjinpuzi and Wancheng Group, indicating a shift towards a more category-driven growth model [3][15]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in various segments, including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Nongfu Spring, and Dongpeng Beverage [3][19].

海通国际8月18日发布研报称，给予重庆啤酒（600132.SH，最新价：55.26元）优于大市评级，目标价 格为61元。评级理由主要包括：1）上半年营收基本稳定，展现较强经营韧性；2）销量超越行业平均， 产品组合积极调整应对市场变化；3）成本优化带动毛利率提升，但税率上升拖累净利表现。风险提 示：消费力恢复弱于预期，原材料价格再次上涨，高端价格带竞争加剧。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Hou Xiaohai as Chairman of China Resources Beer marks a significant leadership change, with potential implications for the company's strategic direction and performance in a competitive market [1][9]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - Hou Xiaohai resigned to focus on personal matters, confirming no disagreements with the board [1][3]. - Zhao Chunwu, the current Executive Director and President, will temporarily assume the responsibilities of the Chairman until a suitable successor is appointed [3][10]. - Hou has been a pivotal figure in the company for over two decades, contributing to its growth and strategic initiatives [3][4]. Group 2: Company Performance Under Hou - Under Hou's leadership from 2016 to 2021, the company saw significant revenue growth, with operating income increasing from HKD 29.732 billion to HKD 33.387 billion and net profit rising from HKD 1.098 billion to HKD 4.587 billion [4]. - However, in 2024, the company faced challenges, reporting a revenue of HKD 41.332 billion (up 1.3%) and a net profit of HKD 3.758 billion (down 18.1%), marking the first decline in both metrics since 2017 [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Hou initiated a "4+4" brand matrix to enhance product offerings and drive premiumization in the beer segment [4]. - The company closed 36 breweries to reduce operational costs, resulting in a workforce reduction of over 50% from 58,200 employees in 2016 to approximately 26,000 by the end of 2024 [4]. - The company expanded into the white liquor market, acquiring stakes in Shandong Jingzhi and Anhui Jinzongzi, and completed a significant acquisition of 55.19% of Jinsha Liquor for HKD 12.3 billion [6][8]. Group 4: Challenges in White Liquor Segment - The acquisitions in the white liquor sector have not yielded expected results, with Jinsha Liquor's revenue dropping from HKD 3.641 billion in 2021 to HKD 1.574 billion in 2024 [8]. - The company acknowledged that the white liquor business is still in the integration phase and requires time to realize synergies and improve performance [8]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following Hou's resignation, speculation arose regarding his future, with rumors of potential roles in other companies, though he stated he would not pursue such opportunities [9][10]. - The board reassured that Hou's departure would not disrupt operations, and the search for a new chairman is underway [10]. - The company faces critical questions about its ability to navigate the competitive beverage market and the effectiveness of its dual strategy in the future [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue at 8.84 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year, and net profit at 860 million yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year [1][7]. - The pressure on beer prices has increased, particularly in the second quarter of 2025, leading to a decline in profitability despite a slight improvement in gross margin due to cost benefits [2][8]. - The company is expected to face ongoing price pressures, with future improvements dependent on the recovery of consumer spending and the introduction of new products [3][9]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - In the first half of 2025, beer sales volume increased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the average price per ton decreased by 1.1%, primarily due to increased promotional efforts [1][7]. - The gross margin for the beer business was 51.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points due to a rise in the effective tax rate [2][8]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 14.73 billion, 15.03 billion, and 15.35 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.26 billion, 1.31 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan [3][9]. Financial Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.61 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21 times [4][9]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [3][9].

Macro Strategy - The report discusses potential space for consumption growth despite challenges in the "old-for-new" policy, highlighting three supporting factors: a gradual recovery in restaurant growth, the release of birth subsidies starting in August, and the impact of consumer loan interest subsidies [1][7] - July economic data shows a mixed picture, with industrial value-added growth at 5.7% year-on-year and retail sales growth slowing to 3.7% [7][8] - The report anticipates a rebound in consumption growth in the second half of the year, driven by restaurant recovery and subsidies [7] Fixed Income - The report covers the issuance of Kai Zhong Convertible Bonds (113698.SH) with a total issuance scale of 308 million yuan, aimed at funding a new smart home appliance manufacturing base [2][9] - The bond has a YTM of 2.19% and a maturity of 6 years, with a conversion price of 12.7 yuan per share [9][10] Industry Analysis Huari Precision (688059) - The company reported a revenue of 519 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.48%, and a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 18.80% [3][11] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 157 million, 211 million, and 273 million yuan for 2025-2027, with a current dynamic PE of 38, 28, and 22 times respectively [11][12] Geely Automobile (00175.HK) - Geely's Q2 2025 revenue reached 77.79 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.62 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [4][13] - The company has revised its net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 15 billion, 22.1 billion, and 29.5 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 8, and 6 times [13] Changjiang Electric Power (600900) - The company aims for a power generation target of 300 billion kWh in 2025, with net profit forecasts of 35.03 billion, 36.72 billion, and 37.09 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [5][14] - The report highlights a stable dividend policy with a minimum payout ratio of 70% for the next five years [14][15] Chongqing Beer (600132) - The company reported H1 2025 revenue of 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.24%, with a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% [16][17] - The report notes a resilient performance from brands like Lebao and Wusu, despite a challenging market environment [16][17] Yihua Da (301029) - The company achieved H1 2025 revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.70%, driven by strong demand in the new energy and automotive sectors [18] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 553 million, 665 million, and 791 million yuan, with a dynamic PE of 29, 24, and 20 times respectively [18]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Beer is experiencing its first-ever decline in both revenue and net profit in its mid-year performance, indicating significant challenges in the competitive beer market [3][5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Chongqing Beer reported revenue of 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year [3][5]. - This marks the first time in the company's history since its listing in 1997 that both revenue and net profit have declined simultaneously in a mid-year report [5][6]. - For the full year of 2024, the company also saw declines in revenue and net profit, with figures of 14.645 billion yuan and 1.115 billion yuan, respectively, representing decreases of 1.15% and 16.61% year-on-year [5][6]. Product Performance - High-end product revenue reached 5.625 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing only a marginal increase of 0.04%, while mid-range product revenue declined [4][7]. - The only segment showing growth was the economy product line, which saw a revenue increase of 5.39% to 196 million yuan [4][7]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company has invested heavily in marketing, hiring multiple celebrity endorsements, including Wu Lei and Fan Chengcheng, with sales expenses amounting to 1.333 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4][8]. - Despite these efforts, sales in the southern market, one of its core regions, fell by 1.47% to 2.478 billion yuan, indicating challenges in driving sales growth [9][10]. R&D and Future Outlook - Research and development investment has significantly decreased, with only 5.7819 million yuan spent in the first half of 2025, a drop of 50.12% year-on-year [11]. - The company plans to invest 600 million yuan to enhance its subsidiary in Foshan, aiming to improve its market competitiveness in the southern region [10].