来源：金融界AI电报 美联储哈玛克：目前银行体系看起来相当健康。 ...

美元印钞机的轰鸣声中，全球资产池泛起涟漪，波兰央行的一项决定引发连锁反应。 美联储主席候选人凯文·沃什提出一项让华尔街瞩目的计划：如果他当选，美联储将与财政部达成协议，印钞3万亿美元为美国国债兜底。 这一提议迅速在全 球货币市场引发震动。 消息传出后几小时内，波兰央行迅速批准了一项购买150吨黄金的计划，这将使波兰黄金储备总量达到700吨，成为全球黄金储备前十的国家。 2026年初，美国媒体彭博社报道了下一任美联储主席候选人凯文·沃什的竞选构想。 他提出美联储应与财政部达成协议，在其任期内印钞3万亿美元为美国国 债进行兜底。 沃什在构想中表示，美联储设定利率的职责之一就是关注美国政府债务成本。 目前美国国债偿付额已超过1万亿美元，财政部赤字预算也十分危险。 这不是美国第一次考虑大规模印钞。 疫情期间，美联储曾在一个月内印钞3万亿美元，而这相当于2008年至2019年整整11年的印钞总量。 2020年，美联储实 施了"无限量量化宽松"政策，每日印制数百亿美元，成功将濒临崩盘的股市与债市挽回。 作为回应，波兰央行迅速行动。 2026年1月20日，该行宣布批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。 完成增持后，波兰的黄金 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 273.89 points, or 0.55%, closing at 50,409.76 points, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 26.55 points, or 0.11%, to 23,212.12 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 2.10 points, or 0.03%, to 6,966.92 points [3][9] - The Dow reached an intraday all-time high of 50,512.79 points [10] Consumer Spending and Economic Data - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in December, indicating more cautious consumer spending at year-end [5][12] - Retail sales remained flat after a 0.6% increase in November, with eight out of thirteen retail categories experiencing declines, including clothing and furniture stores [11][12] - Despite expectations that tax refunds will support demand early in the year, households remain dissatisfied with high living costs and ongoing concerns about the job market [12] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Strategists from State Street anticipate the possibility of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with a potential 10% decline in the dollar [4][11] - The market expects the Fed to resume rate cuts around June, with at least two cuts of 25 basis points each by year-end [11] - There is speculation that the next Fed chair may face pressure for more significant rate cuts than the market currently anticipates [11] Technology Sector Insights - Analysts suggest that software stocks may rebound from historical declines, as the market's perception of the short-term disruptive impact of artificial intelligence is deemed unrealistic [10] - A report led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas indicates that extreme price movements may lead to a rotation of funds back into high-quality software stocks resistant to AI disruption [10]

Group 1 - The first batch of compliant stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong is expected to be issued by the end of March, with HSBC and Standard Chartered likely to be among the first approved institutions [1] - Following the issuance of the first batch of licenses, the approval process for the second batch is anticipated to proceed quickly, with further announcements expected soon [1]

（来源：劳动午报） 转自：劳动午报 本报讯 （记者 王路曼） 近日，密云区举办"携手同心，共赴未来"2026年优化营商环境大会，企业界代 表与相关政府部门负责人近300人齐聚一堂。大会发布《密云区优化营商环境十大行动计划》，并推 出"政策礼包"和"机遇清单"，为企业发展精准赋能。 会上发布密云区"十五五"时期发展愿景，详解未来五年发展蓝图。据了解，密云区将紧扣功能定位，争 当守好密云水库、打好生态牌、走好高质量发展之路的"三好生"，全面实施"以水润城、以水兴业、以 水富民"发展战略，以高水平保护实现高质量发展。未来五年，密云区将聚焦生态文明建设、灾后恢复 重建、培育新质生产力、农业农村现代化、优化营商环境等重点领域协同发力，把生态红利、发展潜力 转化为共赢实效。 现场同时发布密云区优化营商环境十大行动计划，聚焦政务服务、金融服务、土地供应、人才保障、法 治保障等领域。该计划包括30项务实举措。其中，企业办事无需重复提交证照材料，餐饮等高频行业审 批时限"再减半"，"办不成事"窗口兜底服务，首问负责机制坚决杜绝"拒绝式"回应，着力提升企业体验 感。"四级管家"层层联动，"企业吹哨、部门报到"和"诉求直通车"工作 ...

2026开年，全球金融市场迎来一场酣畅淋漓的"开门红"：A股三大指数集体走高，AI板块掀起涨停潮，有色板块表现抢眼；美股道指、纳指 稳步攀升，延续震荡上行态势；国际黄金价格突破历史高位，伦敦金现货一度大涨超3%，成为避险与增值的双重宠儿。但这份热闹背后，暗 潮早已汹涌——特朗普对美联储的施压层层加码，甚至力主对鲍威尔发起刑事调查，1月美联储利率会议暂停三连降，"美联储影子银行"热度 飙升，全球流动性格局正在悄然生变。 与此同时，国内"存款搬家"的呼声持续高涨，居民储蓄加速流向各类投资市场。当国际宏观局势加速演变，国内财政政策明确发力，2026年 的投资市场到底是"开门红延续"还是"昙花一现"？黄金、美元、债市、A股、美股、港股等各类资产将驶向何方？普通人该如何把握机遇、规 避风险，在这场全球金融博弈中站稳脚跟？结合当前热点、权威数据与行业观点，我们一文读懂2026开年市场的机遇与暗礁。 一、开年开门红真相：结构性狂欢，而非全面牛市 2026开年的市场上涨，并非全面普涨的狂欢，而是结构性机会的集中爆发，从具体数据中便能窥见端倪。A股方面，1月申万一级31个行业中 多数实现上涨，有色金属、传媒、石油石化行业涨幅居 ...

英国政坛突发"黑天鹅"。据央视新闻，英国首相斯塔默的公关总监蒂姆·艾伦于当地时间2月9日辞职， 这是24小时内首相办公室第二位高级官员离职。在此之前，英国首相办公室主任摩根·麦克斯威尼因英 国前驻美国大使彼得·曼德尔森涉爱泼斯坦案引咎辞职。受此影响，英国富时100指数、英镑兑欧元汇率 全线跳水，英国10年期国债收益率上升，接近去年11月以来高点。与此同时，对冲基金正通过期权市场 大举押注英镑进一步走弱。 麦克斯威尼在辞职公开信中说，他曾向斯塔默建议任命曼德尔森为驻美大使，而这一任命是错误的，曼 德尔森"损害"了工党和英国的利益。他对这一任命建议"负有全部责任"。 这场政治危机迅速蔓延至英国金融市场。当天，英国富时100指数一度走弱；英镑兑欧元大跌，创1月22 日以来最低水平；英国10年期国债收益率上升，接近去年11月以来高点。 与此同时，对冲基金正通过期权市场大举押注英镑进一步走弱。法国兴业银行全球外汇期权交易主管 Thomas Bureau表示，对冲基金流入"欧元兑英镑的方向单一，大量买入看涨期权"。2月5日，欧元兑英 镑期权交易量达到2019年以来最高水平，看涨期权（押注英镑走弱）的交易量比看跌期权多50 ...

Group 1 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reached a new all-time high, fluctuating between a 200 to 300 point increase, marking its third consecutive record-breaking session [1][2] - Financial stocks, including Goldman Sachs and American Express, continued their upward trend, contributing to the DJIA's performance [2] - The software sector provided significant support to the market, with Datadog and ServiceNow rebounding approximately 14% and 4% respectively, while Unity's stock rose by 5% [3] Group 2 - Datadog reported better-than-expected earnings, projecting a revenue of $3.43 billion for fiscal year 2025, representing a 28% year-over-year growth, with a fourth-quarter revenue of $953 million, up 29% year-over-year [3] - The number of large customers for Datadog increased significantly, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) clients exceeding $1 million reaching 603, a 31% increase from the previous year [3] - AI application software stocks surged, with related ETFs rising over 2%, as market sentiment shifted following a previous decline attributed to AI competition concerns [4] Group 3 - The storage sector underperformed, with Western Digital dropping over 8% and SanDisk declining more than 5% [7] - Recent retail sales data indicated that U.S. consumer spending remained flat in December, falling short of economists' expectations for a 0.4% month-over-month increase [8] - The upcoming employment report and consumer price index (CPI) release are highly anticipated, with expectations for January non-farm payrolls to increase by 68,000, the best performance in four months [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent court ruling involving Jilin Bank's 200 million yuan claim against Zheshang Bank highlights the challenges and risks in the private bond market, particularly regarding the delineation of responsibilities among banks and investors [2][9]. Group 1: Case Background - The dispute centers around the "17 Kangde Investment PPN001" private bond issued by Kangde Investment Group in 2017, with an initial issuance size of 200 million yuan and a coupon rate of 7% [3][4]. - Jilin Bank's investment of 201.51 million yuan was characterized by non-market practices, as the decision was made prior to the bond's issuance and without reliance on disclosure documents [5]. Group 2: Legal Proceedings - Jilin Bank's claim of over 220 million yuan against Zheshang Bank and other intermediaries resulted in consecutive losses in both first and second trials [6][9]. - The court's final ruling emphasized that Jilin Bank's investment decision lacked a causal relationship with any false statements, and Zheshang Bank had conducted thorough due diligence [7]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The outcomes of both Jilin Bank and Jiangxi Bank's cases, which involved similar claims and resulted in identical rulings, signal a clear judicial stance on the responsibilities within the private bond market [9]. - Industry experts suggest that these rulings serve as a warning for financial institutions, emphasizing the importance of pre-investment risk management over post-investment claims [9].

Core Viewpoint - The strategist from State Street Bank, Lee Ferridge, indicates a potential 10% decline in the US dollar this year, particularly after the next Federal Reserve chair takes office, leading to increased uncertainty in monetary policy [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts around June, with at least two cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year [1]. - Ferridge suggests that a third rate cut could occur in 2026, influenced by potential pressure from President Trump on the new chair to lower borrowing costs [1]. - He emphasizes that the Fed's policy is entering a more uncertain phase, with the possibility of three rate cuts being plausible [1]. Group 2: Impact on the US Dollar - The US dollar index has declined approximately 1.7% this year, following a nearly 8% drop last year, marking the worst annual performance since 2017 [4]. - Concerns over trade tensions, uncertainty in the US fiscal outlook, and Trump's ongoing pressure on the Fed have negatively impacted the dollar [4]. - Ferridge notes that if Kevin Walsh, a former Fed governor, is confirmed as the new chair, he may implement a more accommodative monetary policy as desired by Trump [4]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Currency Hedging - A deeper rate cut would lower the cost for foreign investors to hedge their US assets, increasing their hedging activities and putting further pressure on the dollar [1]. - Currently, the hedging ratio for foreign investors in US dollar assets is about 58%, down from over 78% before the Fed began raising rates in 2022 [4]. - Ferridge mentions that if Walsh takes over and begins sustained rate cuts, a significant sell-off of the dollar could commence, with room for increased hedging by foreign investors [4].