中际旭创 20250406 摘要 Q&A 关税政策对中际旭创的影响及公司应对策略是什么？ 公司目前正在根据相关的关税政策进行研究，特别是评估产品中镁含量是否超 过 20%。如果符合要求，公司将提交关税豁免申请。公司也在密切关注海外客 户的反应，目前客户没有调整需求或改变现有贸易条款。此外，公司已具备在 泰国厂全面生产和出货光伏产品的能力。 这种情况是不成立的。即使将产品从泰国运到新加坡，再由新加坡出口到美国， 原产地仍然是泰国。关税是根据原产地征收的，而不是根据中转地。因此，通 过新加坡进行转口贸易并不能规避关税。 • 中际旭创已具备泰国工厂全面生产和出货光伏产品的能力，有效规避美国 加征关税对上游高端光芯片采购的影响，所有芯片可直接发往泰国工厂生 产。 • 尽管芯片供应整体仍然紧张，但随着硅光产品产量逐步提升，预计 2025 年 二季度起供应情况将有所缓解，下半年 EML 芯片的紧张状况有望进一步改 善。 • 中际旭创的 1.6T 产品预计在 2025 年二季度出货量将高于一季度，但大规 模放量预计在下半年。整体需求相较去年下半年有所减少，主要原因是客 户需求有所延迟。 • 针对进口芯片用于海外客户，中际旭 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming OFC 2025 conference will showcase cutting-edge optical communication technologies, focusing on 1.6T optical modules, 200G optical chips, CPO, MPO, and LPO technologies [21][22] - The collaboration between AI and optical communication technologies is creating a feedback loop that drives comprehensive computing power upgrades, enhancing data rates, reliability, and operational efficiency [24][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of low-power optical modules in meeting the demands of AI computing clusters, with advancements leading to a reduction in power consumption by 20% for new products [21][22] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Focus on the optical communication sector, particularly on leading companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [7][13] - Recommendations include monitoring developments in AI infrastructure and optical modules [7][13] Market Review - The communication sector has experienced a decline, with the operator index performing relatively better than other segments [17][18] - Specific declines noted in various sub-sectors, with optical communication down by 3.5% [20] Technology Developments - CPO and MPO technologies are rapidly advancing, transitioning from theoretical solutions to scalable applications [22][23] - LPO products are undergoing continuous micro-innovations to meet the increasing demands of AI applications [22][23] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others in the optical module and AI infrastructure space [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Sichuan Huiyuan Optical Communication Co., Ltd., announced that it will not distribute profits for the fiscal year 2024 due to negative net profit and negative distributable profits in the parent company's financial statements [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Approval Process - The profit distribution plan for 2024 was approved by the Board of Directors and the Supervisory Board during meetings held on March 26, 2025, and will be submitted for shareholder approval [1][2]. 2. Profit Distribution Plan - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is reported as -9,342,609.95 yuan, leading to a proposal of no profit distribution and no capital reserve increase [2][3]. 3. Cash Dividend Details - The total cash dividend for the current year is 0 yuan, consistent with the previous two years. The cumulative undistributed profits at the end of the current year for the consolidated report stand at 47,892,891.86 yuan, while the parent company's cumulative undistributed profits are -146,879,551.10 yuan [3]. 4. Justification for No Profit Distribution - The company cites the negative distributable profits in the parent company's financial statements as the reason for not meeting the conditions for profit distribution. The decision considers the current market environment, operational conditions, and the need to support subsidiaries [4][5]. 5. Future Outlook - The company emphasizes its commitment to improving investor returns through new product development, process improvements, and exploring new industries to enhance profitability and achieve sustainable development [5].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating, indicating an expectation that the overall industry performance will outperform the market in the next six months [6][7]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's new generation of AI chips, announced at the GTC 2025 conference, significantly enhances computing power, creating new opportunities in the AI supply chain [2][6]. - The Blackwell Ultra and Vera Rubin platforms show performance improvements of 1.5 times and 3.3 times, respectively, with the latter expected to launch in the second half of 2026 [2][3]. - The demand for HBM memory is projected to grow substantially, with a near 200% growth rate expected in 2024 and a potential doubling in 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Ratings for Specific Companies - Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) is rated as "Buy" with an expected EPS of 1.9 in 2024 and 2.38 in 2025, and a PE ratio of 21.44 for 2024 and 17.11 for 2025 [1]. - Jiangbolong (301308.SZ) is rated as "Add" with an expected EPS of 1.13 in 2024 and 2.37 in 2025, and a PE ratio of 93.69 for 2024 and 44.67 for 2025 [1]. - Lianrui New Materials (688300.SH) is also rated as "Add" with an expected EPS of 1.35 in 2024 and 1.8 in 2025, and a PE ratio of 43.73 for 2024 and 32.8 for 2025 [1]. Technological Developments - The introduction of CPO technology and optical networks is becoming a focal point in data center construction, enhancing the value of the optical communication industry chain [4]. - The global optical transceiver market is expected to grow by USD 12.56 billion from 2025 to 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.5% [4]. Cooling Solutions - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential for AI data centers, with NVIDIA showcasing advanced liquid cooling management systems that significantly improve thermal efficiency [5]. - The power requirements for the new Rubin Ultra architecture are projected to be approximately 4.5 times higher than the previous Blackwell architecture, necessitating advancements in power supply and cooling systems [5].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The market has underestimated the explosive potential of innovative connection solutions in optical communication, particularly with the increasing demand for MPO and shuffle box in complex interconnections [1][21] - The transition from 400G to higher speeds like 800G and 1.6T in optical modules is becoming a consensus, creating new opportunities for passive connection devices [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-density, high-speed, and low-power solutions in the context of growing computing clusters, which will drive innovation in passive products [24] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Focus on the undervalued high-speed optical interconnect sector, recommending "Two Big and Four Small" companies: Tianfu Communication, Sanhuan Group, and smaller firms like Taicheng Light, Shijia Photon, Bochuang Technology, and Zhishang Technology [7][13][24] Market Review - The communication sector has seen an increase, with the blockchain segment performing the best [18][19] - The report notes significant stock movements, with Guomai Technology leading the sector with a 46.586% increase [20] Weekly Topic - The upcoming GTC and OFC events are expected to highlight new technologies in optical communication, with a focus on the demand for more compact and efficient solutions [1][21] Key Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring developments in optical modules and passive connection devices, as these areas are poised for growth due to technological advancements and market demand [24][26]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the special optical fiber industry, highlighting a golden development period driven by government policies and technological advancements [2][3]. Core Insights - The Chinese special optical fiber market has shown significant growth, with the market size increasing from 4.3 billion RMB in 2019 to 7.6 billion RMB in 2023, and is projected to reach 13.1 billion RMB by 2028 [40]. - Global special optical fiber market size grew from 1.5 billion USD in 2019 to 2 billion USD in 2023, with expectations to reach 3.4 billion USD by 2028 [38]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in promoting the development of the special optical fiber industry, encouraging R&D investments and enhancing innovation capabilities [2]. Market Overview - The global special optical fiber market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2023 to 2028, driven by increased infrastructure investments in the Asia-Pacific region [38]. - The Chinese special optical fiber market is projected to maintain a CAGR of 15% over the next five years, fueled by advancements in 5G communication and new infrastructure projects [40]. Competitive Landscape - The Chinese special optical fiber market is concentrated, with leading manufacturers such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Company, Ruixin Optical Fiber, and others holding a combined market share of 35% [3]. - In the rare earth-doped fiber market, a few companies dominate, including Yangtze Optical Fibre and Ruixin Optical Fiber, which are capable of mass production of rare earth-doped fibers [3]. Application Market Analysis - The report highlights the increasing demand for special optical fibers in various applications, including laser technology, optical communication, and sensing technologies [19][28]. - The fiber laser market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the market size reaching 135.9 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8% [55]. - The optical amplifier market, particularly the EDFA segment, is projected to see a rise in demand due to the growth of the optical communication sector, with a current market size of approximately 55% [30]. Future Trends - The report anticipates that the domestic production of special optical fibers will continue to increase, with a focus on high-performance products and the reduction of reliance on imports [22][28]. - The integration of advanced technologies in manufacturing processes is expected to enhance the quality and performance of special optical fibers, further driving market growth [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating [5]. Core Views - The company has a comprehensive layout in the optical communication industry chain, with a strong vertical integration capability, which is expected to enhance its market share [9][51]. - The demand for optical modules is anticipated to surge due to advancements in AI algorithms, particularly with the introduction of DeepSeek, which is expected to drive a 56.5% year-on-year increase in high-speed shipments by 2025 [34][39]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in domestic computing infrastructure, with significant investments from major cloud service providers [49][51]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 60.61 billion CNY, 2024E: 75.88 billion CNY, 2025E: 104.10 billion CNY, and 2026E: 135.18 billion CNY, with growth rates of -12.31%, 25.20%, 37.19%, and 29.86% respectively [2]. - Net profit forecasts are: 2023A: 6.19 billion CNY, 2024E: 7.23 billion CNY, 2025E: 11.61 billion CNY, and 2026E: 15.02 billion CNY, with growth rates of 1.80%, 16.74%, 60.53%, and 29.42% respectively [2]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.78 CNY in 2023, increasing to 1.89 CNY by 2026, with corresponding PE ratios decreasing from 74.70 to 30.80 [2]. Company Overview - The company has over 40 years of experience in the optical communication field and has established a vertically integrated platform covering optical chips, devices, and modules [9][51]. - It ranks fifth globally in the optical module industry as of 2023, with a market share of 5.8% [15]. - The company has a strong R&D team and advanced technology platforms, enabling rapid market response and innovation [54]. Market Dynamics - The optical module market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for high-speed data transmission in AI applications [39][46]. - The domestic optical module market is projected to reach approximately 6.5 billion USD by 2029, with a market share of 20-25% globally [52][51]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing shift towards higher-speed optical modules, particularly in the context of AI and cloud computing [51][54].