上周，高盛亚洲（除日本外）股票资本市场联席主管王亚军接受了证券时报等媒体采访，谈及： 王亚军还明确指出，国际长线投资者已显著回归中国资本市场，这不仅体现了他们对中国资产的信心，也为市场复苏提供了坚实的 基本面支撑。 中国境外IPO市场已经开始复苏 "如果说，2024年底我们是感觉到了风的存在，那么今年我们是感觉到风真的来了。"谈及今年的中国境外股票发行市 场，王亚军说。 对于中国境外IPO市场复苏的依据，王亚军称，主要是基于 融资额的显著增长、大型项目的成功发行以及国际长线投资 者的回归 。 三大关键议题 王亚军 高盛亚洲（除日本外）股票资本市 场联席主管 以下是采访内容摘要： "中国境外股票发行市场已经复苏。"在日前举办的媒体会上，高盛亚洲（除日本外）股票资本市场联席主管王亚军表示，"如果说， 2024年底我们是感觉到了风的存在，那么今年我们是感觉到风真的来了。" 首先，在中国境外股票发行市场的融资额方面，2024年，中国境外发行市场的融资额达到448亿美元，相比2023年的 195亿美元，增长超过一倍。成倍增长表明市场复苏的拐点已经到来。"尽管与历史平均值750亿美元相比，440亿美元 仍有较大差距，但从 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a measured and reactive approach to consumer stimulus and gradual social welfare reform, suggesting a cautious investment outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The central government announced a modest increase of approximately Rmb4 billion in subsidies for basic public health services, medical assistance, and employment promotion, leading to a total rise of Rmb75 billion in basic welfare spending for 2025 compared to 2024 [2][7]. - There is limited clarity regarding the fertility subsidy and potential expansion of the consumer goods trade-in program, with policymakers indicating these initiatives may be introduced in the second half of the year if economic growth experiences a double-dip [3][7]. - Zhejiang province is piloting new social welfare initiatives aimed at providing public education access to migrant workers' children, with expectations for gradual nationwide implementation over the next 3-5 years [4][7]. Summary by Sections - **Welfare Spending**: The report highlights a modest increase in welfare spending, with a total rise of Rmb75 billion in 2025 compared to 2024, reflecting a cautious approach to economic stimulus [2][7]. - **Fertility Subsidy and Trade-in Program**: Policymakers are still formulating the fertility subsidy and are taking a wait-and-see approach regarding the trade-in program, indicating potential future measures depending on economic conditions [3][7]. - **Zhejiang Province Initiatives**: The introduction of new social welfare measures in Zhejiang, particularly for migrant workers' children, is noted, with a forecast for gradual implementation across the country [4][7].

Domestic Economic Outlook - China's February PMI data exceeded expectations, indicating a strong economic start and continued recovery[3] - Despite the short-term impact of increased US tariffs on Chinese exports, government spending has significantly increased during the Two Sessions, and the central bank has indicated potential interest rate cuts, supporting a bullish outlook for the stock market[3] - The weakening US dollar has alleviated pressure on the RMB exchange rate, enhancing domestic demand and market policy support, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite[3] International Economic Risks - The US has imposed a 25% tariff on global steel and aluminum products, prompting retaliatory measures from Canada and the EU, escalating global trade tensions[3] - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have downgraded US GDP growth forecasts for 2025 from 1.9% to 1.5% and from 2.2% to 1.7%, respectively, indicating a deteriorating economic outlook[4] - US February CPI slowed to 2.8% year-on-year, with core CPI at 3.1%, both below market expectations, increasing bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year[5] Market Strategy Recommendations - Maintain a cautious bullish stance on A-share index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in the short term; commodities should be observed cautiously, and government bonds should also be viewed with caution[3] - The ranking of asset classes is: stock indices > commodities > government bonds[3] - In commodities, precious metals are prioritized, followed by non-ferrous metals, black metals, and energy[3] Risk Factors - Potential for unexpected tightening of Federal Reserve monetary policy[3] - Geopolitical risks and intensifying US-China tensions pose significant threats to market stability[3]

2025年3月13日 | 8:47PM GMT 欧洲经济日评: 法国 - 分析国防支出增加对于经济和财政的 影响 Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 |ari.stehn@gs.com 高盛国际 Filippo Taddei +44(20)7774-5458 filippo.taddei@gs.com 高盛国际 Alexandre Stott +33(1)4212-1108 alexandre.stott@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE Paris Branch James Moberly +44(20)7774-9444 james.r.moberly@gs.com 高盛国际 Niklas Garnadt +44(20)7051-7722 niklas.garnadt@gs.com 高盛国际 现在预计法国的借贷利率约为4%，这意味着未来几年法国的利率-增速差将明显恶 化。因此，稳定债务与GDP之比所需的基本财政收支将从GDP的0%增加到1%左 右,而这是法国在战后时期很少能够达到的水平。有鉴于此，我们预计到2030年 代初,政府债务与GD ...

以下文章来源于金融八卦女频道 ，作者兴华 金融八卦女频道 . 有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。 上市公司中有投行履历的董秘，平均年薪是96.8万，比市场价高出整整20万。再也不用天天加班到深夜做PPT，还年薪百万，这难道不是金融人的职场梦想天 花板？ 文丨金融八卦女特约作者：兴华 开年到现在才两个多月，已经有11位投行人，摇身一变成了上市公司董秘。 期间，韩奋吉参加了霍普股份、福贝宠物、汇联地板等多家上市公司IPO项目的申报： | 電視設备 | ■次会开发行股票并在创业板上市申请文件 招股谈明书(申报稿) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 法定代表人 | 價投 | | (一)发行人:上海福贝宠物用品殴份有限公司 | | | (一)发行人:江苏汇联活动地板股份有限公司 | | | 取账人 | 宋越 | 值所 | 上海市松江区南通镇中强路 923 号 | 住 所 | 武进区根林镇卫星村 | | | | 联系电话 | 021-58783137 | 法定代表人 | 汪壇春 | 法定代表人 | 顾黎明 | | | ...

鉴于在美国新一届政府和国会执政期间并购活动可能增多，对投资银行来说，若能将人工智能工具融入工 作流程就可以扩大其交易处理能力。 具体而言，合适的人工智能工具能让初级银行家以更快的速度简化并完成核心工作。他们可以把节省下来 的时间用于更多营销活动或为高级银行家管理客户。在他们职业生涯最初紧张忙碌的几年里，那些单调、 重复的任务也会变得更容易应对。人工智能工具还可以增强银行在招聘新员工方面的价值主张。 初级银行家面临的挑战 众所周知，初级银行家在第一年通常要花费大量时间学习所在公司复杂的技术和流程。陡峭的学习曲线， 再加上极高的岗位工作要求，意味着长时间的工作和每周高强度的劳作，而且对他们在准确性、注重细 节、可靠性、沟通及协作方面都有着很高的要求。 人工智能工具可以帮助初级银行家完成许多核心职责，包括： ·金融建模 和分析 ： 初级银行家要从事大量的建模工作，以评估合并、收购和其他交易的财务影响。他 们分析历史财务报表，并预测未来的财务表现。 ·研究和信息收集： 他们要开展市场调查，收集有关行业、公司和经济状况的相关数据。这些研究有助于 了解市场趋势和识别潜在的投资机会。 ·准备推介手册和汇报PPT： 初级银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests that Europe needs to significantly increase its military spending to address current shortfalls and match Russian military investment levels, implying a shift in investment strategy [10][71]. Core Insights - The report estimates that Europe requires an additional €160 billion annually in military spending to support Ukraine, rebuild military stock, and match Russian investment flows [66][71]. - The military spending in Europe has declined from approximately 4% of GDP to 2%, and it is projected to increase to around 3% over the next five years [6][71]. - The report highlights a significant gap in military capabilities, particularly in air defense, satellite technology, and nuclear deterrence, indicating that Europe is lagging behind both the US and Russia [36][43]. Summary by Sections Military Aid to Ukraine - Following the US announcement to halt military aid, Europe needs to double its military commitments to Ukraine from €20 billion to €40 billion annually to maintain total foreign military support [13][71]. Current Military Stock and Investment Needs - Europe has a cumulative military stock shortfall estimated between €250 billion and €550 billion, with a mean estimate of €400 billion, necessitating an annual investment of around €80 billion to close this gap [50][71]. - The report indicates that Europe’s annual military investment is currently about €30 billion less than Russia's, and this gap could widen further if a ceasefire occurs [58][66]. Comparison with Russia - The report estimates that Europe needs to increase its military spending by approximately €60 billion annually to match Russia's current military investment flow [66][71]. - It is noted that Russia has significantly increased its military production capacity since 2022, outpacing Europe in several areas [61][62]. Geographical Disparities in Military Spending - The report emphasizes that military spending increases will not be uniform across Europe, with countries like Germany, Italy, and Spain facing stronger pressures to raise their military budgets due to historical under-investment [74][76]. - The report suggests that increased military spending will likely benefit European suppliers, particularly in countries with significant military production capabilities [75][76].

开年以来，中国股市迎来"史诗级"上涨，投资者聚焦，此次反弹较此前有何不同？后续能否延续高歌猛进？ 高盛认为，虽然一些投资者认为缺乏超预期的政策刺激可能导致"见光死"，但 促增长的明确信号、对系统性风险的低容忍度、宽松承诺的兑现以及对股市的具 体支持措施，都对锚定增长预期和控制政策风险溢价至关重要，有利于股市回报。 会议宣布的财政支持消费（3000亿元人民币用于消费品以旧换新）和银行资本重组（5000亿元人民币）相对于市场预期可能看起来较弱，但高盛表示，政策 宽松的反应函数应该是动态的，取决于外部贸易压力的严重程度和其他国内经济挑战。 在9日发布的研报中，高盛表示，中国股市正迎来"史上最强开局"， MSCI中国指数年初至今上涨19%，跑赢发达市场18%和新兴市场14%的涨幅。 并且，自近期低点以来， MSCI中国指数的这波涨幅已高达29%，创下2009年金融危机后第三大反弹， 仅次于新冠疫情后的复苏反弹。 高盛表示，AI热潮和中国科技叙事的积极转变、全国两会确立的促增长政策基调等，这些因素不仅提升了市场估值，也改善了盈利预期，共同推动了市场上 涨。 这次不一样！反弹能否持续？ 中国股市开年来的强劲表现，引发不少 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is fragile, and stock returns are likely to face ongoing challenges, with a potential for a prolonged bear market rather than a sharp financial crisis [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The absence of a clear financial crisis means the market will not experience a rapid sell-off, leading to a slow and painful decline that could last for years, reminiscent of the post-dot-com bubble period [2][3]. - Consumer pressure is increasing as the "American exceptionalism" narrative fades, contributing to market volatility [2][4]. - Credit tightening, estimated at around 20%, typically signals an economic recession, but without a crisis, there is no forced deleveraging to create a sustainable market bottom [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence is declining, and discretionary spending is decreasing due to persistent inflation in essentials like food, energy, and housing, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [4][5]. - Global capital is withdrawing from the U.S., tightening domestic liquidity and increasing volatility [4][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Policy Risks - Geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and changes in fiscal policy, including increased defense spending in Europe, are adding to market uncertainty [5][6]. - Market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts may be misaligned, with potential cuts needing to be deeper than currently anticipated, by 20-50 basis points [5][6]. Group 4: Trading Dynamics - Hedge funds are experiencing the highest level of deleveraging since 2008, exacerbating liquidity-driven volatility [7][8]. - Key technical levels are collapsing, turning previous support into resistance, which increases the risk of further declines [9][10]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - In this market environment, patience and tactical positioning are essential, as it is not a time for bottom-fishing but rather for cautious navigation [15][17]. - Suggested strategies include going long on MDAX stocks, shorting bond substitutes, and investing in gold while shorting the U.S. dollar [18].

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