Group 1: Fund Distribution and Sales Fee Reform - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has solicited opinions on the draft regulations for managing sales fees of publicly offered securities investment funds, which may impact commercial banks' role in fund distribution [1] - Banks are expected to prefer large fund managers and equity funds that demonstrate stable performance and sound management due to the focus on personal customer service and encouragement of long-term investment in the draft [1] - The reform aims to enhance banks' professional service capabilities and promote the healthy development of the public fund industry [1] Group 2: Fund Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the total scale of non-monetary funds held by the top 100 fund distribution institutions exceeded 10 trillion yuan, reaching 10.2 trillion yuan, a 6.95% increase from the previous half [1] - The combined scale of equity funds held by these institutions was 5.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.89% quarter-on-quarter growth [1] - Ant Group continues to lead in equity fund holdings, with significant growth in non-monetary funds and stock index funds, while major brokerages dominate the index product sector [1] Group 3: Interest Rates on Large Deposits - Several private banks have launched large-denomination certificates of deposit with interest rates exceeding 2%, contrasting with state-owned and joint-stock banks where rates are generally in the "1" range [2] - These high-rate products are often limited in availability and sell out quickly, indicating a strategy for customer acquisition by private banks [2] - Industry insiders suggest that this approach is a temporary measure and may not be sustainable in the long term [2] Group 4: New Energy Vehicle Insurance - The high growth and high claims phenomenon in new energy vehicle insurance is changing, with leading insurers moving towards profitability while improving the claims ratio [2] - The new energy vehicle insurance market is expected to remain a key growth area for the auto insurance sector, although achieving overall profitability will take time [2] Group 5: AI Chip Market Dynamics - Domestic chip manufacturers are seizing the market opportunity created by the instability of Nvidia's chip supply, with significant investments from companies like Alibaba and Baidu [2] - The development prospects for domestic AI inference chips are considered promising, although ongoing efforts in ecosystem development are necessary [2] Group 6: Cloud Infrastructure and AI Demand - Oracle's recent performance, highlighted by a 359% year-on-year increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO) to $455 billion, signals strong demand for AI inference computing [3] - Nearly 60% of this growth is attributed to a $300 billion contract with OpenAI, indicating a clear signal of the industry's need for computing power [3] - The substantial order enhances confidence across the industry to invest in AI and cloud sectors [3] Group 7: Construction Industry Performance - The construction sector experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenues down 5.66% and net profits down 8.89% year-on-year [4] - Despite the downturn, many institutions are optimistic about potential recovery opportunities in the second half of the year [4] Group 8: Tencent's Bond Issuance - Tencent is promoting its first bond issuance in four years, seeking to issue offshore RMB-denominated notes with maturities of 5, 10, and 30 years at initial guidance rates of 2.6%, 3%, and 3.6% respectively [4] Group 9: AI Chip Efficiency - A new optical chip developed by American scientists can perform AI tasks with energy efficiency improvements of 10 to 100 times compared to traditional chips, potentially alleviating the high energy demands of AI applications [4] Group 10: Financial Transactions and Corporate Actions - Yunfeng Financial plans to issue 1.91 billion new shares at a price of HKD 6.1 per share, aiming to raise approximately HKD 11.7 billion [5] - Dongcheng Pharmaceutical is planning to spin off its subsidiary for a public listing in Hong Kong, with no substantial legal obstacles identified [6] - The company Biyuan Quantum has initiated IPO counseling for its A-share listing, focusing on quantum computing technology [7] - United Precision intends to acquire a 51% stake in Chengdu Mite Aviation Manufacturing for no more than 380 million yuan, aiming to expand its presence in the aerospace defense sector [8]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the fixed income market, particularly focusing on the issuance of long-term bonds in 2025, which is expected to be substantial with an average maturity exceeding 15 years, increasing market pressure [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Pressure from Long-term Bond Issuance** The issuance of long-term bonds is significant, with an average maturity of over 15 years, leading to increased market pressure and limiting the buying capacity of various institutions [1][2][10]. 2. **Impact on City and Rural Commercial Banks** City and rural commercial banks are experiencing reduced funding due to lower deposit rates, which has shifted funds to larger banks and non-bank institutions, limiting their ability to purchase bonds [2][5]. 3. **Insurance Institutions' Shift in Strategy** Insurance institutions are reallocating funds to the stock market in search of higher returns due to a decrease in preset interest rates, resulting in a reduced allocation to long-term bonds [1][5]. 4. **Regulatory Pressure on Large Banks** Large banks are required to conduct stress tests to ensure that their interest rate risk does not exceed 15% of their Tier 1 capital, which limits their ability to absorb long-term bonds [4][6][7]. 5. **Duration Mismatch and Interest Rate Risk** The significant issuance of long-term bonds has led to duration mismatches for large banks, increasing their long-term interest rate risk and limiting their capacity to hold these bonds indefinitely [4][7]. 6. **Short-term Bonds as a Risk Mitigation Strategy** While purchasing short-term bonds can reduce average duration, it does not effectively lower total interest rate risk. The focus should be on total holding size rather than just duration [8]. 7. **Fund Selling Pressure** Funds are the primary sellers of long-term and ultra-long-term bonds due to fee reforms, prior duration extension behaviors, and redemptions of mixed products, which could further release interest rate risk [11]. 8. **Potential Market Issues** If the current market conditions persist, there could be significant issues, particularly with ultra-long bonds, as they concentrate interest rate risk. Solutions include reducing the issuance of ultra-long bonds or increasing market demand for long-term products [12]. 9. **Future Issuance Plans** The issuance plans for ultra-long bonds are closely tied to project funding and are unlikely to change despite market absorption capacity issues. Adjustments in issuance pace may occur, but overall supply and maturity structure are expected to remain stable [13]. 10. **Bank Capital Supplementation** Addressing bank capital to manage interest rate risk is a long-term planning issue, with options including ownership increases or issuing secondary bonds, which may further increase market supply [14]. 11. **Central Bank's Role** Direct purchases of ultra-long bonds by the central bank are not seen as a viable solution for managing interest rate risk due to existing liquidity management constraints [15]. 12. **Market Sentiment** The bond market should not be viewed as simply bullish or bearish; rather, it should be assessed based on the participation of configuration plates. Current conditions suggest a challenging environment for long-term bonds [16]. 13. **Configuration Value of Ultra-long Bonds** The configuration value of ultra-long bonds is uncertain, particularly for 30-year bonds, as there is no clear demand for them at present [17]. 14. **Asset-Liability Gap Concerns** Recent announcements regarding significant repurchase operations indicate banks' attempts to stabilize metrics, but this may not lead to a decrease in deposit rates [18]. 15. **Investment Strategy Adjustments** The recommended investment strategy is to maintain low leverage and adopt a barbell structure, focusing on short-term instruments and specific mid-term bonds while being cautious with long-term positions [19]. Other Important Content - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring total holding sizes and the implications of regulatory requirements on banks' bond purchasing strategies, emphasizing a cautious approach in the current market environment [1][4][6][8].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the financial market in August, highlighting the performance of social financing (社融) and the impact of new regulations on public funds and investment strategies in the asset management industry. Key Points Social Financing and Economic Recovery - In August, the growth rate of social financing decreased to 8.8%, marking the first month-on-month decline of the year, primarily due to a reduction in government bonds by 250 billion yuan [3] - The total amount of government bonds issued was 1.4 trillion yuan, but the year-on-year increase was lower due to a high base last year [3] - Credit performance was weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, leading to a credit balance growth rate of 6.8% [3][6] - Both household and corporate loans showed weakness, indicating poor economic recovery [6][7] Deposit Trends - M1 growth rate rose to 6%, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" where funds are moving into non-bank deposits [4][10] - Non-financial institution deposits increased by 16%, higher than the previous month, suggesting a trend of funds entering the market [10][11] - Households accumulated approximately 5 trillion yuan in excess savings, driven by fluctuations in the bond market and declining bank interest rates [12] Fund Fee Reduction Policy - The third phase of the fund fee reduction policy aims to benefit investors by 30 billion yuan, primarily affecting sales service fees and subscription fees [13][15] - New regulations standardize redemption fees and holding periods, with a redemption fee of 1.5% for holdings under 7 days, impacting the short-term pure bond fund sector significantly [14][18] - The policy is expected to alter the competitive landscape of the asset management industry, potentially weakening the retail competitiveness of public funds [2][17] Impact on Short-term and Bond Funds - The extension of the holding period to 6 months will significantly impact short-term pure bond funds, which total approximately 1.1 trillion yuan [18][19] - Institutional investors, particularly wealth management subsidiaries, may withdraw from these funds due to liquidity management needs [19] - The new regulations may also affect the operational strategies of insurance funds that rely on these products for short-term gains [21] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The market is expected to see an increase in M1 data to around 6.5% to 7% in September, indicating a potential influx of funds into the stock market [12] - The overall financial market performance is improving, with significant increases in trading volumes and account openings [10] Challenges for Asset Management Firms - The new regulations may force public fund institutions to adjust their product offerings, potentially leading to a shift towards other financial products [25] - Smaller institutions may face survival challenges due to reduced sales fees, making it difficult to incentivize distribution channels [25] Conclusion - The financial landscape is undergoing significant changes due to regulatory adjustments and economic conditions, with implications for various stakeholders in the asset management and banking sectors. The focus will be on adapting to these changes while seeking new investment opportunities and managing risks effectively.

Group 1: Report Summary - The bond market was impacted by news this week. Fund redemption fees and tax exemptions for bond funds led to a rapid market adjustment in the first half of the week, followed by an interest rate recovery driven by renewed expectations of treasury bond trading [1]. - The report analyzes several issues regarding institutional behavior in the bond market, including the progress of large - bank bond sales at the end of the quarter, the differentiated market of bond varieties and maturities, and the end - game thinking of the bond market from an institutional behavior perspective [1]. Group 2: Investment Rating - The document does not provide a specific investment rating for the bond market. Group 3: Core Views - The third - quarter large - bank bond - selling progress may be only halfway through. If the market is led by large - bank bond sales, there may be an opportunity for a rebound after floating profits are realized, but the recovery in the third quarter may be weaker than in the first quarter [1][6][9]. - There is a large differentiation in the market of different bond maturities and varieties. Bonds favored by funds are being sold off, and funds are reducing their duration. In the long - term, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year bonds may widen, and the overall market duration may decline [1][11][23]. - Technically, long - term treasury bond futures are in a downward channel, but there are short - term oversold trading opportunities. The medium - term view remains cautious [24]. Group 4: Section Summaries 4.1 Bond Market Weekly Review (2025.9.8 - 9.13) - The bond market was weak this week. Long - term bond yields reached highs, and fund redemptions raised market concerns. Interest rates first rose and then fell. As of September 12, the 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 4.10BP to 1.87% compared to September 5, and the 30Y treasury bond yield rose to 2.18% [4]. 4.2 Progress of Large - Bank Bond Sales at the End of the Quarter - The large - bank bond - selling progress in the third quarter may be only halfway through. Banks' sales of old bonds in the secondary market in September have increased, mainly long - term bonds. If estimated based on March data, there may still be more than three trillion yuan of bond sales in the future [6]. 4.3 Differentiated Market of Bond Varieties and Maturities - Since June, the spread between 5 - year policy financial bonds and treasury bonds has widened by 14BP, and the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds has widened by 22BP. Only the 5 - year CDB bond can achieve the least loss in the holding - period return calculation starting from early July [11][13]. - Funds are selling off bonds they prefer, and there is a difference in the net buying of new and old treasury bonds. Funds are reducing their duration, with the duration of top - performing funds decreasing more significantly [14][18]. 4.4 End - Game Thinking of the Bond Market from an Institutional Behavior Perspective - The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year bonds may widen due to potential bond - fund scale reduction. The overall market duration may decline, and the mainstream maturities may shift to 3, 5, and 7 years [23]. 4.5 Technical Analysis - Treasury bond futures are in a downward channel, but there are short - term oversold trading opportunities. In the short - term, focus on price recovery resistance levels. In the medium - term, the view remains cautious [24].

Group 1 - The effectiveness of traditional monetary policy in suppressing inflation is being challenged, with increased risks of the U.S. economy entering a re-inflation phase due to the influence on the Federal Reserve's independence [1] - The performance of the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index has garnered market attention, achieving a total return of 63.28% from January 1, 2020, to September 5, 2025, with an annualized return of 15.14% [1] - The market focus is shifting from "mobile internet+" to "artificial intelligence+", indicating potential upward space despite current market activity being below historical peaks [2] Group 2 - In the land market, major real estate companies' total land acquisition reached 449.8 billion yuan from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.48%, although still below levels from 2022 and 2023 [3] - The export growth to ASEAN and the EU has shown an upward trend, with high growth in integrated circuits and ship exports, despite a slight overall weakening in exports [3] - The banking sector is facing significant pressure on certificate of deposit supply, with weak credit issuance and reduced government bond supply, leading to low asset utilization [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current challenges faced by investors heavily invested in dividend stocks, highlighting the underperformance of dividend indices compared to broader market indices since June 23, 2025, and suggests strategies for adjusting portfolios to improve returns [7][9][21]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since June 23, 2025, broad-based and actively managed equity funds have seen gains of 20% or more, while dividend indices like the Shanghai Dividend and CSI Dividend have seen maximum gains of no more than 5% [7]. - The article notes that investors who are fully invested in dividend stocks may be experiencing significant discomfort due to the poor performance of these assets [8]. Group 2: Investor Strategies - For long-term investors who have held dividend stocks through various market cycles, the article suggests that they may not need to take any action, as they understand the nature of these assets [8]. - For newer investors who entered the market during the recent dividend bull run, the article provides actionable strategies to navigate the current market conditions [9][21]. Group 3: Transitioning Investment Focus - The article emphasizes that both dividend and growth assets cannot be effective or ineffective in the long term, suggesting a potential shift towards growth-oriented investments while maintaining a balanced risk profile [11]. - It proposes that investors consider reallocating from pure dividend holdings to deep value fund managers who have shown better performance relative to dividend indices [14]. Group 4: Upgrading Dividend Indices - The article recommends upgrading dividend indices by incorporating growth factors, suggesting two main investment directions: 1. Free Cash Flow series indices, which have outperformed traditional dividend indices since June 23, 2025 [16][17]. 2. Dividend Quality indices, which have also shown significant gains compared to pure dividend indices [18]. Group 5: Additional Optimization Methods - The article suggests considering large-cap broad-based or value-oriented indices, such as the CSI 300 or Shanghai Composite Index, as they are expected to outperform pure dividend strategies in the near term [19]. - It also recommends exploring dividend-paying stocks with growth attributes, particularly in sectors like consumer goods and liquor, which may offer better returns than traditional dividend stocks [20]. Conclusion - The article concludes that rather than making drastic changes to investment portfolios, investors should focus on optimizing their holdings to align with current market conditions while maintaining patience [21][22].

Group 1: Global Market Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that global hedge funds' net purchases of Chinese stocks reached a new high since September 2024, with a 76 basis points increase in positions, marking a two-year peak [1] - ANZ raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 from $3600 to $3800 per ounce, expecting gold to reach nearly $4000 per ounce by June 2026 [2] - Barclays increased its S&P 500 index target for the end of 2025 from 6050 to 6450 points, and for the end of 2026 from 6700 to 7000 points [2] - Deutsche Bank also raised its S&P 500 index target for the end of 2025 from 6550 to 7000 points, citing positive corporate earnings growth and manageable tariff impacts [3] Group 2: Domestic Market Developments - CICC noted that the photovoltaic industry is at a critical observation point for "anti-involution," with operational pressures easing but debt levels remaining high [5] - Tianfeng Securities highlighted that the development of AI servers is driving demand for high-end copper foil, with domestic manufacturers expected to benefit from this growth [6] - CITIC Securities projected that the scale of listed companies' deposits transitioning to wealth management could reach several hundred billion yuan in the next year [7] - CITIC Securities also recommended focusing on companies in the silicon-based materials industry that are extending into high-growth downstream sectors [8] - CITIC JianTou reported that the property management industry is shifting towards high-quality development, with leading companies maintaining strong positions [9] - Huatai Securities indicated that core real estate companies are showing resilience despite the overall market being in a bottoming phase [11] - Zhongtai International expressed a cautious optimism for the capital market in the second half of the year, while maintaining a positive outlook on gold [12]

Core Insights - The decline in household deposits in July 2023 is interpreted as a seasonal effect rather than a significant economic indicator, as historical data shows similar trends in previous years [2][3] - The relationship between household deposit changes and stock market fluctuations is weak, with non-bank financial institutions playing a more crucial role in market movements [4][5] - The trend of "more savings, less borrowing" among Chinese households continues, indicating a persistent deleveraging process [7][10] Group 1: Household Deposits and Loans - In July 2023, household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, which is 780 billion yuan more than the same month last year [1] - The decline in household loans in July 2023, amounting to 489.3 billion yuan, marks a shift from the previous trend of positive growth since 2009 [3] - Cumulatively, household deposits increased by 9.66 trillion yuan in the first seven months of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 720.3 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Stock Market Dynamics - The stock market's performance in July does not correlate strongly with household deposit changes, as evidenced by varying stock index movements despite significant deposit fluctuations in previous years [2][4] - Non-bank financial institutions saw an increase in deposits of 2.14 trillion yuan in July 2023, indicating a potential shift in investment behavior away from traditional bank deposits [4][5] Group 3: Deleveraging Trends - The household leverage ratio in China has slightly decreased to 61.1% as of Q2 2023, down from 62.3% in Q1 2023, indicating ongoing deleveraging efforts [7][10] - The average household loan increase in the first seven months of 2023 was only 680.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 579.4 billion yuan compared to the previous year [4] - The widening gap between new deposits and new loans, reaching 8.98 trillion yuan, highlights the trend of households prioritizing savings over borrowing [4]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint This week (from September 1st to 5th), the funds rate showed a divergence, with large - bank financing supply increasing on a daily average basis, and funds increasing leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit decreased, and the yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit steepened. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were funds, with the net buying volume lower than last week. Funds mainly increased their holdings of 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds, insurers increased their allocation of interest - rate bonds over 15Y, rural commercial banks turned to slightly increase their holdings, securities firms increased their positions in 3 - 7Y interest - rate bonds, and large banks bought interest - rate bonds within 5Y [4]. Summary by Section 1. Money and Fundamentals - **Open - market operations**: A total of 2273.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank injected 1068.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, and on Friday, 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases were both issued and matured. The net liquidity withdrawal for the whole week was 1204.7 billion yuan [7][10]. - **Funds price**: As of September 5th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.36%, 1.46%, 1.32%, and 1.44% respectively, with changes of - 5.75BP, - 6.05BP, - 1.32BP, and - 7.86BP compared to August 29th, and were at the 15%, 7%, 12%, and 2% historical percentiles respectively [7][13]. - **Large - bank financing supply**: From September 1st to 5th, the total large - bank financing supply was 20.82 trillion yuan, with a maximum daily supply of 4.6 trillion yuan and an average daily supply of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.32 trillion yuan compared to the previous week's daily average [7][16]. - **Pledged - repo trading volume**: The pledged - repo trading volume increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.31 trillion yuan and a maximum daily volume of 7.95 trillion yuan, a 3.42% increase compared to the previous week's daily average. The proportion of overnight repo trading increased, with an average daily proportion of 88.4% and a maximum daily proportion of 90.2%, an increase of 2.89 percentage points compared to the previous week's daily average, and was at the 88.6% percentile as of September 5th [7][18]. 2. Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and financing of certificates of deposit**: This week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount turned positive. The total issuance was 581.7 billion yuan, an increase of 24.48 billion yuan from the previous week; the total maturity was 330.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 464.37 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing amount was 251.65 billion yuan, an increase of 499.96 billion yuan from the previous week. Among different bank types, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. Among different maturities, 3M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance scale [7][22]. - **Yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit**: The yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit steepened. As of September 5th, the yields to maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit rated AAA were 1.45%, 1.55%, 1.63%, 1.66%, and 1.67% respectively, with changes of - 0.9BP, 1BP, 1.1BP, 0.45BP, and 0.5BP compared to August 29th [7][33]. - **Bill rates**: Bill rates showed a divergence. As of September 5th, the 3M state - owned straight - discount rate, 3M state - owned transfer - discount rate, 6M state - owned straight - discount rate, and 6M state - owned transfer - discount rate were 1.26%, 1.18%, 0.78%, and 0.73% respectively, with changes of 8BP, 13BP, - 4BP, and - 7BP compared to August 29th [7][35]. 3. Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leverage ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased slightly. As of September 5th, the total inter - bank leverage ratio in the bond market increased by 0.20 percentage points to 106.55% compared to August 29th, at the 36.8% historical percentile since 2021. The leverage ratio of broad - based funds increased slightly. As of September 5th, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurers, and broad - based funds were 103.5%, 188.3%, 128.1%, and 104.9% respectively, with changes of 0.54BP, 0.54BP, - 2.08BP, and 0.05BP compared to August 29th, and were at the 26%, 1%, 66%, and 24% historical percentiles respectively [7][37][39]. - **Duration adjustment**: Funds increased their duration, while insurers and wealth - management products decreased their duration. As of September 5th, the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of funds was 3.42 years, further recovering from - 1.96 years on August 29th, at the 70% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of wealth - management products was 1.03 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 57% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of rural commercial banks was - 1.62 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 22% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of insurers was 12.07 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 87% historical percentile [7][44].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, with a probability of 99.4% for a 25 basis points cut, indicating a strong consensus in the market [3][5] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for August is seen as a critical data point that could finalize the Fed's decision on rate cuts, with expectations of 75,000 new jobs added [5][6] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%, which would be the highest level since 2021, while average hourly earnings are expected to show no month-over-month change [5][6] Group 2 - Standard Chartered Bank suggests that if the non-farm payroll report shows a low number of new jobs, it could lead to market pricing in a 50 basis points cut by the Fed [6] - Concerns have been raised regarding government interference in labor statistics, following the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief by President Trump [6] - Malayan Bank notes that despite uncertainties in France, the UK, and Japan, the market has almost fully priced in the possibility of a September rate cut, which could pressure the dollar if the non-farm data is weak [7] Group 3 - Gold prices have been rising, with spot gold reaching $3,546.82 per ounce and COMEX futures surpassing $3,600 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut [7][9] - The price of gold has seen a significant increase of approximately 2.9% for the week, marking the largest weekly gain since mid-June [9] - The recent upward momentum in gold prices is attributed to continuous weak economic data, which has bolstered optimism regarding the Fed's rate cut [9]