证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 农化行业：2026 年 1 月月度观察 优于大市 钾肥合同价上涨，储能拉动磷矿需求，草铵膦将取消出口退税 储能需求持续向好，磷酸铁锂价格持续上涨。据百川盈孚，目前我国磷 酸铁锂产能达 594.5 万吨/年，2025 年产量 382 万吨，同比增长 48.59%， 截至 2026 年 1 月底，磷酸铁锂市场价格约 5.6 万元/吨，环比+7%，较 2025 年 6 月底最低价 3.2 万元/吨上涨 75%。受下游储能及动力电池需 求向好拉动，磷酸铁/锂、六氟磷酸锂等含磷新能源材料需求显著提升， 叠加供给端行业反内卷工作推进，产品价格持续上涨。 在全球储能产业加速扩张的背景下，磷酸铁锂对上游磷资源的需求持续 提升。假设全球储能电池出货量在 2025-2027 年分别增至 600/800/983 GWh，对应磷矿石需求将升至 600/800/983 万吨，占我国磷矿石预测产 量比重分别达到 4.7%/5.9%/7.0%；储能级磷酸铁对原料纯度要求高（低 铁、低镁、低重金属），实际可适配的高品位磷矿资源远比总量稀缺， 叠加动力电池的持续贡献，磷资源在新能源电池领域的消费比重将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of resource integration versus technological innovation in the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry, highlighting a shift in the business model from merely selling materials to focusing on processing capabilities and stable delivery [1][12]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - In January 2026, lithium iron phosphate was included in the National Bureau of Statistics' monitoring of 50 important production materials, with prices increasing by 11.3% month-on-month in early January and an additional 5.9% later in the month, reaching 57,337 yuan per ton [1]. - Phosphate chemical companies are increasingly investing in the lithium iron phosphate supply chain, with traditional phosphate enterprises like Xingfa Group and Chuanheng Co. being evaluated alongside LFP producers [2][19]. Group 2: Lessons from Previous Cross-Industry Ventures - The previous wave of titanium dioxide companies entering the lithium iron phosphate market was driven by the potential to utilize by-products like ferrous sulfate, but many projects faced significant challenges, leading to low operational rates and project terminations [4][5]. - The failure of these cross-industry ventures was attributed to the industrial nature of material delivery, where consistency in product quality is crucial for securing contracts with leading battery manufacturers [6][7]. Group 3: Current Industry Innovations - A notable innovation in the current phosphate chemical industry is the adoption of contract processing agreements, exemplified by Xingfa Group's deal with Qinghai Fudi Industrial to process 80,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate annually [11][12]. - This shift towards a processing fee model allows companies to stabilize cash flow and operational rates without solely relying on material prices, contrasting with previous strategies that focused on high material sales [13][15]. Group 4: Resource Integration and Competitive Landscape - Phosphate chemical companies have a natural advantage in the lithium iron phosphate market due to their established resource networks, which include access to phosphate rock and related processing capabilities [16][17]. - The industry's competitive dynamics are evolving, with traditional lithium iron phosphate producers facing pressure to integrate resources and engineering capabilities to remain competitive, leading to a potential consolidation of the market into a few comprehensive platforms [19][23].

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，截至2026年1月底，国内氯化钾港口库存为249.47万吨，较 去年同期减少34.51万吨，降幅为12.15%。1月底，中国进口商与俄罗斯乌拉尔钾肥公司达成了跨境铁路 合同，2月氯化钾合同价格为364美元/吨(满洲里交货)，较1月价格上涨3美元/吨；国内氯化钾市场均价 为3295元/吨，环比上月涨幅为0.4%，同比去年涨幅27.52%。农药行业方面，取消出口退税短期将挤压 草铵膦等农药企业利润空间，短期出口需求提升叠加国内春耕备货期，草铵膦价格将出现一定上涨。 国信证券主要观点如下： 钾肥供需紧平衡，2月钾肥合同价格上涨 储能需求持续向好，磷酸铁锂价格持续上涨 据百川盈孚，目前我国磷酸铁锂产能达594.5万吨/年，2025年产量382万吨，同比增长48.59%，截至 2026年1月底，磷酸铁锂市场价格约5.6万元/吨，环比+7%，较2025年6月底最低价3.2万元/吨上涨75%。 受下游储能及动力电池需求向好拉动，磷酸铁/锂、六氟磷酸锂等含磷新能源材料需求显著提升，叠加 供给端行业反内卷工作推进，产品价格持续上涨。 在全球储能产业加速扩张的背景下，磷酸铁锂对上游磷资源的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][8]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with contract prices rising due to increased demand and limited domestic production [1][5]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining ore grades and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][3][7]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, including glyphosate, is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the pesticide industry [4][7]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Potassium fertilizer prices are recovering due to strong demand, with domestic production expected to decrease by 2.7% to 5.5 million tons in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a record high of 12.633 million tons, up 9.1% year-on-year [1][25]. - As of January 2026, the average market price for potassium chloride was 3,295 CNY/ton, reflecting a 27.52% increase year-on-year [1][41]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Yara International, with projected potassium chloride production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [5][8]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over two years [2][50]. - As of January 30, 2026, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock was 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei and 970 CNY/ton in Yunnan, stable compared to the previous month [2][50]. - Companies with clear expansion plans such as Chuanheng Co., Yuntianhua, and Xingfa Group are recommended for investment [7]. Pesticides - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to increase production costs for pesticide companies, leading to a potential rise in prices for glyphosate and other products [4][7]. - The production of glyphosate in China is projected to grow significantly from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 45.78% [4][7]. - Recommended companies in the pesticide sector include Lier Chemical and Liming Chemical, which are expected to benefit from price increases and improved margins [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry: Yellow Phosphorus Sector Core Insights and Arguments 1. Current high prices of sulfur/sulfuric acid are impacting the cost of wet-process phosphoric acid, leading to wet-process phosphoric acid costs exceeding those of thermal phosphoric acid. This may result in some wet-process phosphoric acid companies temporarily shifting to the lower-cost thermal phosphoric acid, thereby increasing the usage of yellow phosphorus [1][3] 2. Following the Spring Festival, the demand for phosphoric acid is expected to surge due to the seasonal peak, but the production of yellow phosphorus may not keep pace with the increased demand, leading to a supply-demand mismatch [2][4] 3. The supply of yellow phosphorus has been constrained in recent years due to high energy consumption and safety concerns, making significant capacity expansion difficult in the short term [5] 4. The combination of a slight increase in demand and limited supply may lead to a price increase for yellow phosphorus after the Spring Festival [6] Notable Companies in the Yellow Phosphorus Sector 1. Recommended companies include: - Chengxing Co., Ltd. (the purest yellow phosphorus stock) - Yuntu Holdings - Yuntianhua - Xingfa Group [7]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive chemical leader, leveraging rich phosphate resources in Yichang to establish a complete phosphate chemical industry chain [1] - Unlike traditional phosphate chemical leaders, the company possesses a deep-rooted innovation and R&D DNA, with significant investments in R&D leading to the development of multiple new energy materials and high-end new material products [1] Core Insights - The company has a diversified business layout and synergistic advantages within its industry chain, as detailed in the deep report titled "Riding on Phosphorus, Focusing on High-End, Multiple Lines Flying Together" [1] - The focus of the current report is on the company's advancements in new energy materials (such as iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and solid-state materials like phosphorus pentasulfide) and high-value-added new materials (including semiconductor materials and black phosphorus) [1] Industry Dynamics - The main bulk products, including phosphate fertilizer, glyphosate, and organic silicon, are currently at a low point in the market cycle but are expected to benefit from a reversal of internal competition and improvements in industry supply and demand, potentially leading to a market recovery [2] - The key growth segments, particularly new energy materials and high-end new materials, show significant promise and are expected to continuously contribute to performance growth, maintaining a "buy" rating for the company [2]

Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a situation where increased production does not result in increased profits, with the industry's operating income profit margin declining from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024 [2][17] - The report recommends investment directions in oil and gas, refining and chemical, potash fertilizer, and phosphorus chemicals, anticipating a gradual recovery in profitability as supply-side reforms take effect [4][21] Supply Side - Fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector turned negative starting June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle, with the "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aimed at curbing low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated capacity [2][19] - The report expects stricter approval for new chemical product capacities and accelerated clearance of outdated capacities, effectively alleviating the oversupply issue in the petrochemical industry [19][20] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus, while emerging demands from sectors like renewable energy and AI will drive the need for key chemical materials [3][19] - The report highlights that China's chemical products account for over 40% of global sales, and with overseas capacity being cleared, Chinese chemical companies are expected to gain market share globally [20] Oil Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks have led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 16.17% and 13.57% respectively by the end of January 2026 [4][21] - The report forecasts Brent oil prices to stabilize between $55-65 per barrel and WTI prices between $52-62 per barrel in 2026, influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and high operational costs in the U.S. shale oil sector [22][30] Key Industry Research - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with the report suggesting a focus on companies like China Petroleum and Rongsheng Petrochemical for potential recovery in refining profits [7][22] - In the potash fertilizer sector, the report recommends Yara International, which has significant potash reserves and is expected to increase production capacity significantly by 2026 [8][22] - The phosphorus chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from increased demand driven by energy storage applications, with a recommendation for Chuanheng Co. due to its strong resource base [23][24] Investment Portfolio - The recommended investment portfolio includes China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Yara International, and Chuanheng Co., highlighting their competitive advantages and growth potential in the current market environment [24][25]

Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a situation where increased production does not translate into higher profits, with the industry's operating income profit margin declining from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024 [2][17] - The report recommends investment directions in oil and gas, refining and chemical, potash fertilizer, and phosphorus chemicals, anticipating a gradual recovery in profitability as supply-side reforms take effect [4][21] Supply Side - Investment in fixed assets in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector turned negative starting June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle, with the "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aimed at curbing low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated capacity [2][19] - The report expects stricter approval for new chemical product capacities and accelerated clearance of outdated capacities, effectively alleviating the oversupply issue in the petrochemical industry [19][20] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus, while emerging demands from sectors like renewable energy and AI will drive the need for key chemical materials [3][19] - The report highlights that China's chemical products account for over 40% of global sales, and with overseas capacity being cleared, Chinese chemical companies are expected to gain market share globally [20] Oil Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks have led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 16.17% and 13.57% respectively by the end of January 2026 [4][21] - The report forecasts Brent oil prices to stabilize between $55-65 per barrel and WTI prices between $52-62 per barrel in 2026, influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and high operational costs in the U.S. shale oil sector [22][30] Key Industry Research - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with the report suggesting that the "anti-involution" policy will effectively optimize the supply side, particularly in the refining sector [22][32] - The potash fertilizer sector is highlighted for its potential growth, with companies like Asia Potash International expected to expand production significantly, reaching 400,000 tons by 2026 [8][22] - The phosphorus chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from increased demand driven by energy storage applications, with companies like Chuanheng Co. expected to maintain high prices for phosphorus ore [23][24]

Group 1 - The core index of the chemical industry, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, fell by 5.15% on February 2, with stocks like Enjie Co., Ltd. and Tianci Materials showing positive performance [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) recorded a trading volume exceeding 680 million yuan, with a turnover rate of nearly 3% and a premium rate of 0.05%, indicating frequent premium trading [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF saw a net subscription of 85 million units during the trading session, continuing a streak of 23 consecutive trading days with net inflows, totaling over 1.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which covers various segments of the chemical industry, including phosphorus chemicals, fluorine chemicals, and leading companies in phosphate and potassium fertilizers [1] - Guosheng Securities noted that the supply structure has improved, leading to a valuation recovery in the chemical industry, with a continuous rise since the "anti-involution" trend began in July 2025 [1] - The issuance of the chemical ETF and the release of dual-carbon policies since Q4 2025 have strengthened the investment logic on both the supply and demand sides in the chemical sector [1]

Macro and Strategy - In 2025, China's economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5.0%, showing a "high first, low later" trend, with a significant inverse relationship between GDP growth and price performance [8][9] - The structural transformation in 2025 is positive, with a decline in the growth rate of the secondary industry and an increase in the tertiary industry, which helps alleviate excess supply pressure and supports domestic demand through service sector development [8][9] - The overall domestic demand remains at a historically low level, with insufficient internal demand being a major bottleneck in the economic cycle [8][9] Chemical Industry - The phosphate chemical industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with the wet-process phosphoric acid being the core preparation route, gradually replacing the energy-intensive thermal process [28][29] - Domestic phosphate rock supply is tightening due to strict environmental regulations, leading to a significant reduction in outdated production capacity [28][29] - The demand for phosphate rock is expected to remain robust, with the gross profit margin for leading enterprises around 80%, while the share of wet-process phosphoric acid consumption is projected to increase significantly by 2024 [29][30] Electronic Industry - The LCD panel industry has seen an increase in prices, with the panel index rising by 11.55% since December 2025, outperforming major stock indices [31][32] - The global revenue for large-sized LCD panels in December reached $6.423 billion, with a month-on-month growth of 15.52% [32] - Price increases for various sizes of LCD TV panels are expected to continue into February, driven by strong demand from television brands [33] Agricultural Industry - The price of live pigs is expected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy, with the price recorded at 12.87 yuan/kg as of January 23, 2026 [36] - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery, while the price of yellow chickens is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand [36]