Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the impact of the rainy season on bauxite mines will gradually fade, and the long - term agreement price may be slightly lowered. The loose pattern of alumina will continue, and the margin is expected to gradually converge. It is recommended to continue the strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long - term, while being vigilant against policy tightening at the Guinean mine end and irregular production cuts caused by environmental protection during the heating season or losses, which may lead to a phased oversold rebound. - In the fourth quarter, with the continuous implementation of domestic consumption stimulus policies and the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, the price of electrolytic aluminum above the 20,000 - yuan mark will continue to be more likely to rise than to fall. It is advisable to mainly go long on dips. Whether the demand can be substantially improved after the Double Festival may determine the final high of the aluminum price this year. Attention should be paid to the demand fulfillment and the remaining two interest - rate cut dynamics of the Federal Reserve this year. - In the fourth quarter, with the cancellation of waste - aluminum tax rebates and the recovery of peak - season demand in November, aluminum alloys will strengthen relative to electrolytic aluminum, presenting an AD - AL arbitrage opportunity. Attention should be paid to warehouse - receipt registration and subsequent delivery [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price - In the third quarter, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly. As of September 25, the main contract closed at 2,942 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.4%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,765 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.9%. The aluminum alloy futures, which were listed in June, fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,385 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 3% [6][8]. Supply - Alumina: From January to September, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 66.606 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The operating capacity rose to 91.35 million tons, and the operating rate rose to 82.8%. The domestic alumina supply has increased slightly, with new domestic and overseas alumina production capacities being put into operation at an excessive speed, and the pace of release slowing down after a significant narrowing of profits. - Electrolytic aluminum: From January to September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 32.757 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The operating capacity rose to 44 million tons, the operating rate rose to 96.3%, and the molten - aluminum ratio rose to 76%. The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, with technological transformation projects in Guangxi and early replacement projects in Guizhou and Yunnan gradually starting production [4][6]. Demand - The peak - season effect and the high - price suppression of inventory replenishment coexist. The average operating rate in the third quarter was 60.1%, a year - on - year decline of 2.51%. From June to August, the downstream comprehensive processing orders exceeded expectations, with the average processing PMI at 45.8, a year - on - year increase of 3.2. It is expected that the PMI in September still has room for growth. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, foils, and cables declined significantly year - on - year, while aluminum profiles showed relative resilience [4][6]. Inventory - Exchange inventory: In the third quarter, the alumina inventory in the exchange increased by 96,000 tons to 114,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 33,400 tons to 128,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory increased by 172,000 tons to 517,000 tons. - Social inventory: In the third quarter, the alumina social inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 30,000 tons; the aluminum - ingot inventory increased by 139,000 tons to 617,000 tons; the aluminum - rod inventory decreased by 36,500 tons to 123,000 tons [4][7]. Aluminum Ore - Production: Mines in Shanxi and Henan first resumed production and then were restricted by environmental protection. Domestic ore production first increased and then declined. - Import: In the third quarter, affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the proportion of ore imports gradually decreased. In August 2025, the total import volume was 1.82898 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [32][34]. Downstream - Operating rate: The operating rates of multiple downstream sectors declined year - on - year. The declines in the plate, strip, foil, and cable sectors were significant, at 6%, 5%, and 6% respectively. - Orders: From June to August, the average value of the downstream comprehensive processing PMI was 45.8, a year - on - year increase of 3.2. It is expected that the PMI in September still has room for growth [56][62]. Capacity - Domestic alumina: The new incremental level is large, and the over - supply pressure will further increase. The total planned new capacity is 41.2 million tons, with 14.1 million tons in 2025, 4.6 million tons in 2026, and 14.3 million tons in 2027 and beyond [71]. - Overseas alumina: The new planned capacity is limited, and all are supporting capacities for electrolytic aluminum. The total planned new capacity is 14.4 million tons [72][73]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum: The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacities and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned new capacity is 5.77 million tons, with 1.53 million tons in 2025 and 1.11 million tons in 2026 [74]. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum: There are regional differences and a lag in rhythm. The new capacity is concentrated in Southeast Asia and other regions. The total new capacity expected to be put into operation in 2026 is 1.9 million tons [75]. Global Supply - Demand - Overseas alumina continues to be in surplus. From January to August, the overseas alumina and primary - aluminum production was 39.86 million tons and 19.66 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a decline of 0.1% [91]. Supply - Demand Balance - Alumina: It is expected to turn to a state where the surplus margin narrows in the fourth quarter. - Electrolytic aluminum: The demand will turn to a tight state in the fourth quarter [93][94]. Options - The report also analyzed the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratios of positions and trading volumes of alumina options and Shanghai aluminum options [96][103][107].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Grasberg's unexpected copper production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months, and the mid - term allocation value of copper is still optimistic, with consideration of long - term mid - term orders or selling put options below 78,000 [1] - The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are acceptable, and one can hold at low prices in a low - inventory pattern and pay attention to far - month inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1] - Zinc prices are oscillating this week. The short - term unilateral trend is weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see; for domestic - foreign arbitrage, partial profit - taking can be made for domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel remain weak. The short - term macro aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and the policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [3][4] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 [5] - Tin prices are in a wide - range oscillation. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and one can lightly short above 275,000 yuan/ton; in the medium - to - long - term, hold near the cost line at low prices [10] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are balanced in September and October, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] - The price of lithium carbonate oscillates. With the support of the seasonal peak season and the explosion of energy - storage demand, the monthly balance after CATL's production cut turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is average [11] Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport Indonesia's subsidiary's accident delays Grasberg's resumption of production, reducing the 2026 copper production guidance by about 35% (equivalent to about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold) [1] - The adjusted copper mine supply has no obvious increase this year, and there will be no increase in the mine supply next year if the Panama mine does not resume production [1] - Fund long positions are gradually increasing, but the focus of macro and bulk CTA funds is still on precious metals. The gold - copper ratio is at a low historical quantile [1] Aluminum - Supply increases slightly, and aluminum ingot imports provide an increase from January to August [1] - Downstream construction improves, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules stabilizes. Attention should be paid to whether overseas demand stabilizes after the decline [1] - There is a slight inventory reduction in September, and a seasonal slight inventory increase is expected in October [1] Zinc - Domestic TC decreases further, and imported TC increases further. The domestic zinc ore supply is tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas mine supply increased unexpectedly in the second quarter [2] - In October, the smelting end recovers slightly month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2] - Domestic social inventory oscillates, and overseas LME inventory decreases. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is close to opening [2] Nickel - The supply side expects a slight resumption of production by steel mills, the demand side is mainly for rigid demand, and the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable [3] - There is a slight inventory increase in Xifu, and a slight inventory reduction in warehouse receipts [3] Stainless Steel - The supply side expects a slight resumption of production by steel mills, the demand side is mainly for rigid demand, the price of nickel iron remains stable, and the price of chrome iron rises slightly [3][4] - There is inventory reduction in Xifu, and a slight inventory reduction in warehouse receipts [3][4] Lead - On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery is in short supply, the recycled lead maintains low - level operation, and the TC quotation is in a chaotic decline [5] - On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory is high, the battery construction rate increases this week, and the demand turns slightly prosperous [5] - The refined - scrap price difference is - 75, the long - term supply in Henan is tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decrease by 20,000 tons [5] Tin - On the supply side, the domestic smelting plants reduce production, and the supply from overseas gradually recovers. The supply side is marginally repaired [10] - On the demand side, the demand for solder is mainly rigid. The downstream restocking intention is strong when the price drops rapidly this week, and the inventory reduction is significant [10] - The domestic fundamentals are short - term in a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the expected changes after October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations [10] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises resume production, and some factories in the southwest may gradually reduce production later [11] - The supply and demand are balanced in September and October, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - The raw - material end has strong price - support intention from overseas mines and reluctant selling from traders, but salt factories have low acceptance of high - price lithium mines [11] - The pre - holiday stocking rhythm of the lithium - salt end is strong first and then weak, and the spot basis is weakly stable, with some discounts expanding by 100 - 200 yuan [11] - In the context of strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price elasticity is high after the supply - side disturbance speculation materializes, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbance materializes [11]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Views - The copper market is expected to transition from a tight balance to a shortage due to frequent supply disruptions, with prices likely entering an upward cycle. Recent price changes for copper include +2.08% for LME copper, +3.20% for SHFE copper, and +2.89% for COMEX copper. The Grasberg mine, the world's second-largest copper mine, has faced production halts, with Freeport estimating a recovery to pre-accident production levels by 2027, leading to a projected 35% decrease in copper production in 2026 compared to previous expectations. Domestic copper inventories are decreasing, with LME, COMEX, and SHFE inventories at 144,000 tons, 322,000 short tons, and 99,000 tons respectively, showing changes of -2.2%, +1.7%, and -6.7% [6][4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic and international macroeconomic indicators show that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were lower than expected, with 218,000 claims reported against an expectation of 235,000. The core PCE price index for August matched expectations at 2.9% [10]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking second among Shenwan sectors. The copper, copper products, and cobalt sectors showed the most significant gains, while other small metals and aluminum sectors lagged behind [12]. 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE ratio for the Shenwan non-ferrous metals sector is 24.83, with a weekly change of 0.63. The PB ratio is 2.97, with a weekly change of 0.08. The non-ferrous sector's PE ratio is 112% of the overall A-share market, while the PB ratio is 165% [21][24]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased, with LME copper up 2.08% and SHFE copper up 3.20%. Copper inventories decreased by 2.20% for LME and 6.65% for SHFE. The smelting fee is reported at -40.3 USD/ton, with copper smelting margins at -2701 CNY/ton [26][39]. 5. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices fell by 1.36%, while SHFE aluminum prices decreased by 0.22%. The inventory situation shows a 0.74% increase in LME aluminum stocks and a 2.43% decrease in SHFE stocks. The price of alumina dropped by 2.15% [39]. 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 0.14% to 73,600 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices fell by 0.23% to 857 USD/ton. The lithium supply chain is entering a destocking phase due to increased demand [79]. 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt up 3.22% to 16.83 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices rising by 14.80% to 318,000 CNY/ton. The Democratic Republic of Congo is set to implement a cobalt export quota system, which may lead to a tightening of supply and further price increases [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices dropped to a relatively low level last week, increasing downstream procurement enthusiasm and leading to a reduction in social inventory and a repair of spot discounts. The supply side remains stable, domestic consumption is steadily recovering, and the absolute value of social inventory is still relatively low. There is no need to be pessimistic about aluminum prices, and consumption at home and abroad in the fourth quarter is expected to be positive [9]. - The alumina market has no obvious positive factors, with supply remaining in excess and social inventory rapidly accumulating. Although the cost side is in a state of game, the downward space is limited under the background of low valuation [9]. - The downstream consumption of aluminum alloy is recovering, but the supply is still in excess, with high overall social inventory. The absolute price is affected by macro factors, which is not conducive to the seasonal convergence trend of the price difference with aluminum ingots [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price - As of September 26, 2025, LME aluminum closed at $2,649.0 per ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,745 yuan per ton. The spot premium in East China was 0 yuan per ton, in the Central Plains region was 50 yuan per ton, and in the Foshan region was -75 yuan per ton. The LME aluminum spot premium (0 - 3) was $5.4 per ton [1]. Supply - As of September 26, 2025, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, with no weekly change; the operating capacity was 44.439 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,000 tons; and the industry operating rate was 98.25% [1]. Demand - According to Steel Union data, the weekly output of aluminum rods was 361,600 tons, a weekly increase of 600 tons, and the weekly output of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils was 367,000 tons, a weekly increase of 2,700 tons. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, the operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises was 67.00%, a weekly increase of 1.80%; the operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises was 69.00%, a weekly increase of 0.80%; the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises was 72.60%, a weekly increase of 0.70%; and the operating rate of aluminum profile enterprises was 54.60%, with no weekly change [1]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 617,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 21,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 123,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,000 tons. As of September 26, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 517,700 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 63,230 tons [1][2]. Profit - As of September 26, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 16,268 yuan per ton, and the immediate production profit was 4,502 yuan per ton [3]. Alumina Price - As of September 26, 2025, the alumina futures contract closed at 2,901 yuan per ton. The spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi were 2,940 yuan per ton, 2,970 yuan per ton, 2,900 yuan per ton, 3,155 yuan per ton, and 3,150 yuan per ton respectively. The FOB price of imported alumina was $323 per ton [4]. Supply - As of September 26, 2025, according to Aladdin data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, a weekly increase of 600,000 tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [4]. Cost - As of September 26, 2025, the quoted price of Guinea bauxite on the website was $74.0 per dry ton, and the ocean freight was $26.0 per ton. The price index of domestic northern bauxite was 655 yuan per ton, and that of southern bauxite was 585 yuan per ton. The bauxite long - term contract price in the fourth quarter is expected to decline by $1 - 2 per ton, and there is still uncertainty in overseas bauxite [4]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the total national alumina inventory was 4.505 million tons, a weekly increase of 44,000 tons. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.171 million tons, a weekly increase of 17,000 tons; the inventory at stations and ports was 1.042 million tons, a weekly increase of 23,000 tons; the port inventory was 72,000 tons, a weekly increase of 14,000 tons; the finished product inventory in alumina plants was 220,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons; and the warehouse receipt inventory was 149,211 tons [5]. Profit - As of September 26, 2025, calculated based on imported ore at $73.5 per ton, the full production cost of marginal high - cost enterprises was 3,182 yuan per ton, with a production loss of 242 yuan per ton; the full production cost using domestic ore was 2,979 yuan per ton, with a production loss of 39 yuan per ton. The import profit and loss of alumina was 108 yuan per ton [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price - As of September 26, 2025, the futures contract price closed at 20,325 yuan per ton. Jiangxi Baotai quoted 20,400 yuan per ton, and the purchase price of civil primary aluminum was 16,000 yuan per ton [6]. Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,000 tons, a weekly increase of 1,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 3,000 tons [7]. Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of ADC12 was 20,323 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit was 177 yuan per ton [8]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution; neutral on alumina [10]. - Arbitrage: Carry out calendar spread arbitrage for aluminum [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices showed a slight rebound followed by a callback, still in a grinding phase. It is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday. In the medium - term trend, there is a bullish outlook on the unilateral price, volatility direction, and smelting profit of aluminum [3]. - Alumina prices continued to move downward, and attention should be paid to the downside space. The key lies in the rigid production when the loss area of production capacity expands further [4]. - The overall fundamentals of aluminum are still not bad, with downstream consumption showing a certain degree of improvement during the consumption peak season in September [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly under the influence of the sharp rise in copper prices, but then declined again with the adjustment of copper prices. The short - term trend is still in a grinding phase [3]. - **Fundamental Indicators**: As of September 25, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 22,000 tons to 614,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of September 26, the weekly total output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased for the sixth consecutive week, with a cumulative year - to - date decline of - 1.39%, and the decline was still moderately expanding compared with the previous week. As of September 24, the output of aluminum profiles continued to increase steadily, and the overall sample production schedule weakened slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 40 yuan/ton to 320 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, currently at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years [3]. - **Downstream Consumption**: In September, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% compared with the previous week. The stronger downstream sectors are aluminum plates and strips, aluminum cables, and primary aluminum alloys; the relatively weaker sectors are aluminum profiles, aluminum foils, and recycled aluminum alloys [3]. Alumina - **Price Trend**: Alumina first rose slightly and then declined in the past week, with a large divergence in the market around the 2900 mark, and the overall center of gravity was still downward [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market remained weak. The winning bid price of a regular tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang on Monday was lower than the previous one. Manufacturers' willingness to ship and the willingness to accept tender transactions were relatively strong [4]. - **Price Changes**: As of September 26, the average prices of alumina in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia continued to decline. The FOB forward spot price in Australia continued to decline to $321/ton, and the import window remained open, with a profit of about 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of September 25, the all - caliber social inventory of alumina in Aladdin increased by 78,000 tons to 3.797 million tons compared with the previous week; the inventory in the Steel Union's caliber also continued to accumulate, with the all - caliber inventory reaching 4.505 million tons, increasing by 44,000 tons compared with the previous week [4]. Transaction - related - **Term Spread**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum strengthened, while the spot premium of alumina weakened. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 20 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) changed from - 70 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from 21 yuan/ton to - 21 yuan/ton, and the premium of Henan alumina to the current month changed from 96 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between the near - term months of Shanghai aluminum remained stable [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest and trading volume of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased slightly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly and was at a historical high; the trading volume of the main alumina contract decreased slightly [14]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the main Shanghai aluminum contract declined; the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina continued to decline and was at a historically low level [20]. Inventory - related - **Bauxite**: - Port inventory and inventory days increased. As of September 26, the port inventory of imported bauxite in the Steel Union's weekly data showed an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same [25]. - In August, the port inventory and port inventory days of bauxite in China according to the Aladdin caliber continued to accumulate [25]. - The port shipping volume of Guinea decreased, and the floating inventory increased. As of September 26, the weekly port shipping volume of Guinea decreased by 215,300 tons compared with the previous week, and the floating inventory increased by 714,400 tons; the port shipping volume of Australia decreased by 153,300 tons, and the floating inventory increased by 447,400 tons [31]. - The outbound volume showed differentiation, and the inbound volume declined. As of September 19, the outbound volume of bauxite from Weipa + Gove Port in Australia decreased by 252,200 tons compared with the previous week; the outbound volume of bauxite from Boffa + Kamsar Port in Guinea increased by 217,800 tons; the inbound volume of bauxite under the SMM caliber decreased by 837,100 tons [36]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory continued to accumulate. The total inventory increased by 44,000 tons compared with the previous week. The in - plant inventory of alumina increased slightly, the alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased slightly, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory at the platform/on - the - way increased slightly [45]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There was a reduction in inventory. As of September 25, the weekly social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 22,000 tons to 614,000 tons [53]. - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory showed differentiation this week [58]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Strip - Foils**: As of August, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles decreased slightly, while the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly; the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio also increased slightly [61]. Production - related - **Bauxite**: In August, the supply of domestic bauxite showed differentiation in different calibers. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. The supply of imported bauxite was still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. The production of bauxite in Shanxi decreased slightly, while the production in Henan increased slightly in the Steel Union's caliber, and decreased in the SMM caliber. The production of bauxite in Guangxi decreased slightly in both calibers [66][70]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable, but the fundamental situation of loose supply has not been reversed. As of September 26, the total operating capacity of alumina in the country was 96.7 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 100,000 tons. This week, the domestic production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.855 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with the previous week, still at a relatively high level in recent years [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. As of August, the operating capacity continued to be at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of September 25, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum in the Steel Union's caliber was 852,700 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared with the previous week. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally, and the supply pressure decreased [77]. - **Downstream Processing**: - The output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased slightly, with a weekly increase of 2,700 tons [79]. - The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased, with a weekly decrease of 500 tons. The load of aluminum rod plants increased slightly, and the weekly output of aluminum rods increased by 600 tons [81]. - The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream enterprises increased slightly, reaching 63%. The operating rate of aluminum plates and strips increased slightly, the operating rate of aluminum foils remained at a high level, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles remained unchanged. The operating rates of aluminum cables, recycled aluminum alloys, and primary aluminum alloys increased [82][88]. Profit - related - **Alumina**: The smelting profit declined marginally. This week, the profit of alumina decreased slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union's caliber was 158.3 yuan/ton, maintaining a relatively good level. In terms of different provinces, the profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit performance in Guangxi was better than that in other regions [90]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors interfered with market expectations. The complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [105]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased, but the downstream processing profit was still at a low level. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 40 yuan/ton this week, but the overall downstream processing profit remained low [106]. Consumption - related - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed [115]. - **Export**: In August 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,000 tons. The export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments, and the export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed differentiation [117][120]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for primary aluminum and aluminum rods showed certain changes, and the transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [124][128].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum element shows a serious oversupply situation from the mine end, and there is a certain downward pressure on overseas ore prices in the long - term, but the price decline speed and amplitude are controllable before Guinea's monopoly status is shaken [21]. - The alumina industry is in a state of large - scale oversupply and is under import pressure. The price needs to break through the high - cost part of the industry. The Q4 price bottom may test 2700 - 2800 yuan, and mid - term long positions can be considered below 2700 yuan [47]. - The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in Q4 is expected to decline, and the supply will continue to increase both domestically and overseas. The demand growth rate will face downward pressure, but the low supply and inventory will support the aluminum price, and the price does not have a basis for rapid upward movement [51][62][64][72][91]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Ore - Overseas - The latest transaction price range of Guinea's bauxite is 73 - 75 dollars per dry ton, and the bauxite freight is maintained at 20 - 25 dollars per ton. In August, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 18.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 141.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% [6][11]. - In 2025, overseas bauxite supply will continue to grow, with the main increment coming from Guinea (+50 million tons), Australia (+2 million tons), and Guyana (+5 million tons). There are many new projects planned in 2026, with a total planned increase of 62.5 million tons [13][14]. - The Q4 price game of Guinea's ore is expected to be 70 - 75 dollars, corresponding to the cash cost of alumina plants using imported ore in Shanxi and Henan of 2900 - 3100 yuan [14]. Aluminum Ore - Domestic - The domestic bauxite price remains stable. The含税 price of 58/5 ore in Shanxi is 700 yuan per ton, and that in Henan is 658 yuan per ton. From January to August, the domestic bauxite output was 40.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. The domestic bauxite supply in Q4 is expected to have no significant improvement, and the output in 2025 is expected to be 62.3 million tons, an increase of 4.2 million tons (+7.2%) compared with 2024 [20]. Aluminum Ore - Conclusion - From January to August, the total domestic and imported bauxite was 182.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%, while the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum output was +2.7%. The aluminum element shows a serious oversupply situation from the mine end [21]. - Guinea has certain pricing power, but due to the high proportion of bauxite exports in local fiscal revenue, the government is difficult to intervene in supply on a large scale. Domestic mine governance policies will form long - term constraints on domestic ore and support global ore prices to some extent [21]. Alumina - Domestic - In August, the domestic alumina output was 8.1904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. From January to August, the cumulative output was 61.81 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.7%. The national alumina production capacity is 104.62 million tons (excluding zombie capacity), with an operating capacity of 97.95 million tons and an operating rate of 93.6% [22]. - The alumina supply continues to recover when there are profits. There are new capacity plans in 2025 and 2026, with over 8 million tons of new projects in 2026, and the supply pressure in the second half of 2025 still exists [29][30][32]. Alumina - Overseas - There are many new production plans for overseas alumina in 2025 and 2026, with a total of 10 million tons in 2025 and 8.5 million tons in 2026. The overseas alumina supply is in a state of oversupply [34]. Alumina - Strategy - The alumina industry returns to cost - based pricing. High - cost projects in Shanxi and Henan need to withdraw to repair the supply - demand balance sheet. The Q4 price bottom may test 2700 - 2800 yuan, and mid - term long positions can be considered below 2700 yuan [47]. Electrolytic Aluminum Cost - The current real - time full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is over 16,000 yuan per ton, and the industry's theoretical profit is over 4,000 yuan per ton. The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in Q4 is expected to decline, with the cost center dropping to 15,500 - 16,500 yuan per ton [51]. Supply - Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply has been released as expected, with a net import of 1.56 million tons of primary aluminum from January to August, and the import scale of Russian aluminum exceeding expectations. There will still be a small amount of capacity release in Q4 2025, with a total of 370,000 tons, and the output in 2025 is expected to be 44.025 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [59][62]. Supply - Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum - The overseas electrolytic aluminum supply shows a slight increasing trend in 2025. The amount of electrolytic aluminum capacity to be increased and restarted in Q4 is 290,000 tons. The overseas supply pressure will gradually increase from 2026, mainly concentrated in Chinese - funded projects in Indonesia [64][66][67]. Consumption - From January to August, the cumulative consumption of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The demand in the first half of the year was better than expected, but the photovoltaic demand will definitely weaken in the second half of the year, the growth rate of household appliance demand is under pressure, and the automobile demand has a downward risk. The demand in Q4 will improve compared with Q3, but the year - on - year growth rate will face greater downward pressure [72]. Balance Sheet & Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment has long - term uncertainties. The long - term supply - demand of global electrolytic aluminum is generally healthy. The aluminum price in Q4 is supported by low supply and inventory, but the demand is not very optimistic, and the price does not have a basis for rapid upward movement. The recommended strategy is to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the medium - long term and maintain rolling operations [91].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market shows a slightly bullish trend in the main contract, with decreasing positions, spot discounts, and weakening basis. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market has a slightly bullish main contract, decreasing positions, spot premiums, and strengthening basis. It is advisable to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The cast - aluminum market has a main contract that rises and then retraces, increasing positions, spot premiums, and weakening basis. It is suggested to go long on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,765 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,942 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the cast - aluminum alloy main contract is 20,385 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai aluminum previous 20 - net position is - 9,281 hands, down 3024 hands; the LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, up 3300 tons; the spread between the main and the second - continuous contract of Shanghai aluminum is - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,770 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,905 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast - aluminum alloy is 515 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 37 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Demand**: Alumina production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons [2]. - **Trade**: China's import of aluminum scrap and waste is 172,610.37 tons, up 12115.77 tons; the export is 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons; the export of alumina is 18.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons; the import is 9.44 million tons, down 3.16 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of electrolytic aluminum is 217,260.71 tons, down 30322.61 tons; the production of aluminum products is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 59.80 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period is 127,734 tons, down 765 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy is 163.50 million tons, up 9.90 million tons; the production of automobiles is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.46%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.04%, down 0.14%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV is 10.83%, up 0.0014% [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.08, down 0.0424 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Central Bank Statements**: FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns; Daly believes that economic growth and labor are slowing, and inflation is lower than expected, suggesting further rate cuts [2]. - **Mining Incident**: Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide on September 8, leading to casualties and damage to mining facilities, and the mine is suspended, with potential production delays in Q4 2025 and 2026 [2]. - **Trade Policy**: Chinese Premier Li Qiang states that China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, and hopes that the EU will keep trade and investment markets open and avoid politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues [2]. 3.8 Key Points of Different Aluminum Products - **Alumina**: The main contract is oscillating strongly, with decreasing positions and weakening basis. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is slightly increasing, but the demand boost is less than the supply growth. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main contract is oscillating bullishly, with decreasing positions and strengthening basis. The supply is stable, and the demand is boosted. The option market is bullish. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - **Cast - Aluminum Alloy**: The main contract rises and then retraces, with increasing positions and weakening basis. The supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand is slightly recovering but still weak. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that product pricing is determined through competitive negotiations or bidding processes, reflecting market-driven results. It plans to enhance its core competitiveness by focusing on R&D, developing new products and processes, and expanding its customer base [2]. Group 1 - The company sells products at prices established through competitive negotiations or bidding, indicating a market-oriented pricing strategy [2]. - The company will continue to monitor industry and market conditions closely to adapt its strategies accordingly [2]. - Future efforts will include increased R&D investment, development of new products and processes, and expansion of a quality customer base to enrich its product matrix [2].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-25 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20680元/吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水0元/吨，较上 一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价20690元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至10元/吨；佛山A00 铝价录20620元/吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-55元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-24日沪铝主力合约开于20685元/吨，收于20705元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，最 高价达20740元/吨，最低价达到20625元/吨。全天交易日成交107916手，全天交易日持仓221314手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-24，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存63.8万吨，较上一期变化0.0吨，仓单库存67736 吨，较上一交易日变化-1224吨，LME铝库存517150吨，较上一交易日变化3300吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-24SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2950元/吨，山东价格录得2910元/吨，河南价格录得 2990元/吨，广西价格录得3160元/吨，贵州价格录得3 ...

Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - Domestic aluminum prices have reached a yearly high, touching 21,000 yuan/ton, marking a 10% increase from the year's low [1] - The outlook for aluminum prices in Q4 remains uncertain, with potential for either upward movement or downward pressure [1][8] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has resumed its rate-cutting cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0% to 4.25% [2] - The Fed's updated projections indicate an increase in the number of expected rate cuts for the year, now anticipated to be three [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.4%, indicating continued economic expansion, with forward-looking indicators showing a rise in the EPMI to 52.4% [4] - As of September 22, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 638,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week but down 93,000 tons year-on-year [6] Group 4: Export Challenges - In August, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products fell by 10.2% year-on-year, with cumulative exports from January to August down 8.2% [7] - Many companies are focusing on maintaining existing customer orders, with limited success in expanding into new markets [7] Group 5: Market Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to lack new upward momentum in the short term due to the upcoming National Day holiday and the recent Fed rate cut [8] - Overall market expectations remain optimistic for Q4, with potential policy support anticipated to drive aluminum prices higher [8]