Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - After continuous decline, the downstream procurement willingness of lithium carbonate has increased. The price has fallen below the previously agreed bottom price in the industry, and the subsequent price may need to be renegotiated. The market has stabilized and rebounded. However, the current oversupply pattern remains unchanged, with high total industry inventory pressure and a large number of new warehouse receipts registered. In the medium to long term, lithium prices are still under pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On April 23, 2025, the main contract 2505 of lithium carbonate opened at 68,000 yuan/ton and closed at 68,980 yuan/ton, a 0.96% increase from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 216,166 lots, and the open interest was 206,388 lots, an increase of 941 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 365,876 lots, a decrease of 3,011 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of the contracts increased by 62,193 lots from the previous trading day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.75. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 31,735 lots, an increase of 350 lots from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate market showed a pattern of opening high, moving low, and rising at the end of the session, ultimately closing up 0.96% [1]. Lithium Carbonate Spot - On April 23, 2025, the quoted price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,300 - 71,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quoted price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 67,700 - 68,700 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - After the continuous decline of lithium carbonate spot prices, the procurement willingness of downstream material factories has improved marginally, driving up market trading activity. Although upstream lithium salt factories are less willing to sell at this price point, the high inventory of traders continues to drive down the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate. As the pre - May Day stockpiling procurement has not yet started intensively, considering the downstream stockpiling demand, the short - term market may stabilize [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies for hedging. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options. - No strategies are provided for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, and spot - futures operations [3].

2025年04月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：试探前高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：企稳反弹 | 2 | | 铜：库存增加，价格回升受限 | 4 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 氧化铝：价格承压 | 6 | | 锌：短期承压 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 镍：基本面短线支撑，镍价坚挺运行 | 10 | | 不锈钢：成本或底部支撑，负反馈预期施压 | 10 | | 锡：小幅修复 | 12 | | 工业硅：盘面考验成本支撑 | 14 | | 多晶硅：交割资源或受限，关注市场情绪变化 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：月差走强，震荡走势延续 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2504 | 781.60 | 2.24% | 792.56 | 2.62% | | | 黄金T+D | 78 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The spot supply of lithium carbonate remains relatively high, and the center of spot transactions is moving downward. The supply-demand pattern is still in surplus, and there is still room for lithium prices to fall under the weak macro - sentiment and fundamental situation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On April 15, 2025, the main contract 2505 of lithium carbonate opened at 70,760 yuan/ton and closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 39,365 lots, and the open interest was 112,411 lots, a decrease of 5,721 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 323,050 lots, an increase of 1,360 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 55,708 lots from the previous day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.24. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 29,283 lots, an increase of 260 lots from the previous day. The futures price was at a discount of 830 yuan/ton to the spot price of electric carbon [1]. - According to SMM data, on April 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,200 - 72,900 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 69,150 - 70,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Downstream material factories mainly make rigid - demand purchases and have no inventory - building plans. There is a large gap between the quotes of upstream lithium salt factories and the expected purchase prices of downstream, resulting in few market transactions [1]. Overall Situation - The spot supply is still at a relatively high level, and the center of spot transactions has moved down. Some salt factories have plans for production cuts and maintenance, but the surplus pattern has not changed. The current transactions are mainly for rigid demand, with a high proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products. The upstream lithium salt factories still have a certain sentiment of supporting prices, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. The number of new warehouse receipt registrations is large, and the warehouse receipts continue to increase [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Operate within a range and sell for hedging at high prices [3]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bearish spread options [3].

图为天齐锂业电池级碳酸锂生产工厂 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 胡雅文 北京报道 截至4月10日，电池级碳酸锂急挫至7.05万元/吨，清明节至今4个交易日共跌去3400元。 《华夏时报》记者从业内了解到，产品角度来讲并没有太多下跌的理由。对于碳酸锂价格波动，鑫椤资讯高级研 究员张金惠告诉记者，"如今全球市场普遍下跌，大宗商品市场受到影响。" 上海钢联新能源事业部锂业分析师李 攀表示，短期来看，美国关税将导致中国锂电出口减少从而传导至碳酸锂需求量，全年碳酸锂价格重心下移。 受盘面及宏观情绪影响，锂矿价格同步下跌，锂盐市场"矿盐倒挂"或因此加重。2024年碳酸锂均价同比暴跌 64.35%至9.02万元/吨，2025年开年即跌破7.6万元/吨。尽管锂矿价格同步下行，但成本倒挂矛盾愈发尖锐——当 前835美元/吨的锂辉石精矿对应碳酸锂成本线已达7.4—7.6万元/吨，近日锂盐大跌进一步拉大了单位亏损。 若是按照2024年美国市场40吉瓦时的储能电池计算，对应的碳酸锂当量约为2.4万吨。不过根据上海有色网数据， 2024年我国碳酸锂出口不足0.5万吨。天齐锂业也于4月9日回复投资者称，20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and although the futures price of lithium carbonate is relatively strong compared to the entire capital market, the slight decline in the futures price still strengthens the price difference of lithium carbonate, suppressing the enthusiasm for delivering new lithium carbonate goods for warehousing. The growth rate of new warehouse receipts registration is poor. Although downstream demand is strong, there is a lack of marginal increase. Overall, the supply - demand fundamentals are still dominated by excess supply pressure, and the situation of the futures price under pressure remains unchanged. However, attention can be paid to the repair path of the basis [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Report Summary - **Fundamentals**: - Lithium ore: The demand for domestic high - priced ore is affected by a wait - and - see attitude. Tariff factors have hit the demand expectation of lithium carbonate, and the demand for high - priced mica ore has been greatly affected [3]. - Lithium salt: The growth rate of warehouse receipts has slowed down, and the pressure of circulating inventory has increased. After the centralized cancellation of lithium carbonate futures warehouse receipts at the beginning of the month, the growth rate of new warehouse receipts is significantly slower than in previous periods. The high basis still significantly inhibits the enthusiasm for warehousing. The production in March reached a record high, and it is expected to remain at a high level in April, and the supply pressure in the spot market is expected to remain [3]. - Cathode materials and lithium batteries: Exports hit ternary lithium more than lithium iron phosphate. The production schedule of domestic lithium iron phosphate is stable, and the expected impact of tariffs on the demand for ternary lithium materials is stronger than that for lithium iron phosphate [3]. - **Market summary**: The supply - demand fundamentals are still dominated by excess supply pressure, and the futures price is under pressure, but attention can be paid to the repair path of the basis [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Lithium carbonate balance sheet**: It shows the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, cumulative balance, sample inventory, and sample change of lithium carbonate from March 2023 to March 2025, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is in a delicate balance [6][8]. - **Lithium hydroxide balance sheet**: It presents the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium hydroxide from March 2023 to March 2025 [9][11]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply and Demand and Price - **Lithium spodumene import**: It provides data on the import volume and average import price of lithium concentrate from different countries (Australia, Brazil) from February 2022 to February 2025 [13][17]. - **Chinese lithium ore**: The wait - and - see attitude has hit high - priced domestic ore. It includes data on domestic lithium ore production, weekly inventory, and market prices of lithium concentrate [18][22]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply and Demand and Price - **Lithium salt spot and futures prices**: The price of lithium salt fluctuates narrowly around 75,000 yuan. It provides the market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and their price differences from February 2025 to April 2025, as well as data on the futures closing price and basis of lithium carbonate [24][29]. - **Production cost and profit**: The profit of high - grade lithium mica has been significantly repaired. It shows the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from lithium spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica from September 2024 to April 2025 [35][39]. - **Lithium carbonate production**: It provides data on the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from 2022 to 2025, including production by grade and raw material [40][49]. - **Operating rate**: It shows an upward trend seasonally. It provides data on the operating rates of lithium salt, lithium carbonate (overall and by raw material), and lithium hydroxide from 2022 to 2025 [50][54]. - **Monthly import volume of lithium carbonate**: It provides data on the total import volume of lithium carbonate and the import volumes from Argentina and Chile from March 2022 to February 2025 [55][59]. - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: Attention should be paid to the growth rate of new warehouse receipts registration. It includes data on downstream and smelter inventories, weekly inventories, and the number of futures registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate [60][64]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand - **Lithium iron phosphate**: The operating rate remains at a high level. It provides data on the production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate from 2019 to March 2025 [66][70]. - **Ternary materials**: It provides data on the total production, operating rate, import and export volume of ternary materials from 2019 to March 2025 [71][81]. - **New energy vehicle production and sales**: It includes data on the weekly production of batteries (lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium), the production of new energy vehicles (pure electric and plug - in hybrid), and the inventory warning index of automobile dealers from 2021 to March 2025 [82][86]. - **Lithium battery import and export volume**: It provides data on the import, export, net export, and net export growth rate of lithium - ion batteries from October 2022 to February 2025 [88][91].

Report Information - Report Date: April 2, 2025 [18] - Analysts: Shi Cheng, Chen Sijie, Feng Fan [19] - Contact Person: Wang Yuwu [20] Market Analysis - On April 1, 2025, the main contract 2505 of lithium carbonate opened at 74,220 yuan/ton and closed at 74,360 yuan/ton, with a 0.49% increase from the previous settlement price [1] - The trading volume was 77,235 lots, and the open interest was 203,726 lots, a decrease of 6,885 lots from the previous trading day [1] - The total open interest of all contracts was 355,825 lots, a decrease of 6,762 lots from the previous trading day, and the total trading volume decreased by 12,413 lots [1] - The overall speculation degree was 0.29, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 19,135 lots, a decrease of 1,380 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, on April 1, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,400 - 74,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,650 - 72,650 yuan/ton, also up 100 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - It is estimated that the domestic lithium carbonate production in April will remain stable at a high level, with a change range of about 1% - 2% [2] - The supply of lithium hydroxide is highly concentrated, and the production of leading enterprises is relatively stable recently. The production in April is expected to be basically the same as that in March, with a year - on - year decrease of nearly 30% [2] - In April, market demand is expected to continue to grow, but the growth rate may slow down. The production of ternary materials is expected to increase by 7.22% month - on - month [2] - In April, as the lithium - battery market gradually enters the peak season, the production scheduling of phosphoric acid iron enterprises is expected to continue to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 68% [2] - Overall, the spot supply is still at a relatively high level, and there is an expectation of further increase. The spot transaction price shows a pattern of weak and volatile operation [2] - As the price falls, the downstream purchasing sentiment improves. The upstream lithium salt plants still have a certain sentiment of supporting prices, and a small number of lithium salt plants have reduced production, but the oversupply pattern has not been reversed [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Interval operation, sell on rallies for hedging [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options [3]

Group 1: Company Overview and Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of CNY 15.134 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 4.663 billion in 2024, with a basic earnings per share of CNY 0.8812 [2] - The total assets amounted to CNY 45.783 billion, with total liabilities of CNY 6.189 billion, maintaining a safe debt level [2] - The company produced approximately 4.96 million tons of potassium chloride and sold about 4.6728 million tons in 2024, holding a market share of around 40% in the domestic potassium chloride market [2][3] Group 2: Lithium Production and Projects - The company produced about 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.92%, with sales reaching approximately 41,600 tons [3] - The new 40,000 tons lithium salt integrated project has a total investment optimization rate of approximately 14.58%, with a signed contract amount of CNY 4.243 billion [3][4] - The project construction is progressing well, with 55% of the overall project completed [4] Group 3: Stock and Shareholder Information - The company completed the cancellation of 141 million shares, accounting for 2.60% of the total share capital prior to cancellation [4] - The company is actively researching policies to optimize its financial structure and enhance shareholder returns, with plans for a more attractive and sustainable dividend policy [20] Group 4: Research and Development - The company invested CNY 200 million in R&D in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, completing nearly 100 research projects and applying for 114 patents [5] - The company aims to align its R&D efforts with national strategic needs, focusing on green low-carbon and digital transformation [5] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The company expects a net profit of CNY 1.13 billion to CNY 1.2 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.97% to 28.47% [7] - The potassium chloride market is anticipated to see price increases due to supply-demand dynamics, with China’s potassium chloride import volume reaching 12.63 million tons in 2024, a 9% increase year-on-year [13] - The company is focusing on enhancing its production capacity to meet the growing demand for potassium fertilizer, which accounts for about 25% of global consumption [11][12] Group 6: Cost Control and Efficiency Improvement - The company emphasizes cost control as a core aspect of its management strategy, aiming to enhance economic efficiency and market competitiveness [9] - Various measures are being implemented to optimize resource utilization and reduce production costs, including technological upgrades and process optimization [15][16] - The company is committed to sustainable development through efficient resource management and cost reduction strategies [18][19]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is under pressure from an oversupply situation that is difficult to fundamentally improve in the short - term and weakening cost support due to the loosening of lithium ore prices. The downstream material factories mainly conduct rigid - demand restocking, and the overall market trading atmosphere is stable. The upstream lithium salt factories have a strong willingness to support prices, but actual transactions are mainly between traders and downstream material factories. The option market shows a bullish sentiment with the call position dominant, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are near the 0 - axis and the red bars are slightly contracting. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position range trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 74,360 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 46,489 lots, up 7,282 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 203,726 lots, down 6,885 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 260 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 19,135 lots/ton, up 1,380 lots [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 260 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 793 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 8,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 2,391 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 35,690 tons, up 560 tons; the monthly import volume is 12,327.97 tons, down 7,794.24 tons; the monthly export volume is 417.13 tons, up 18.53 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 42%, down 1 percentage point; the monthly output of power batteries is 100,300 MWh, down 7,500 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 60,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - lithium oxide is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 149,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 126,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 131,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 40%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 57%, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 888,000 units, down 127,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 892,000 units, down 52,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 40.31%, up 1.35 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 1,835,000 units, up 628,000 units; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 131,000 units, down 19,000 units; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 282,000 units, up 100,000 units [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 14.47%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 13.17%, up 0.04 percentage points; the total call position is 201,060 lots, up 1,000 lots; the total put position is 59,941 lots, up 2,683 lots; the put - call ratio of the total position is 29.81%, up 1.1921 percentage points; the at - the - money implied volatility (IV) is 0.15%, down 0.0036 percentage points [2]. Industry News - During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday in 2025, the price limit range and trading margin standards of various futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange remain unchanged. After trading resumes on April 7, 2025, the price limit range of industrial silicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 6%, the speculative trading margin standard to 8%, and the hedging trading margin standard to 7%; for lithium carbonate futures contracts, the price limit range will be adjusted to 8%, the speculative trading margin standard to 10%, and the hedging trading margin standard to 9%. - Guangdong has officially issued relevant regulations on the management of official vehicles for provincial - level government agencies and public institutions, promoting the use of new energy vehicles. - In March 2025, XPeng Motors delivered 33,205 smart electric vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 268%, and has delivered over 30,000 vehicles for five consecutive months. In the first quarter of 2025, XPeng Motors delivered a total of 94,008 smart electric vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 331%. - Xiaomi Auto added 15 stores in March, with 235 stores in 65 cities across the country. As of March 31, there were 127 service outlets covering 75 cities. In April, 33 new stores are planned to be added in 7 cities. - Li Auto's sales target for this year is 700,000 vehicles, with an internal expectation of 50,000 pure - electric vehicle sales and a supply - chain expectation of at least 140,000. The sales target for extended - range models is between 560,000 and 650,000 vehicles, with a monthly average of 46,700 - 54,100 vehicles. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4% respectively, up 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising for two consecutive months. The construction industry PMI reached a new high since June 2024, indicating an obvious economic recovery trend [2].