Core Viewpoint - The Qinghai provincial government is taking serious action in response to allegations against the Qaidam Xinhua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. for illegally burying large amounts of hazardous waste, with investigations and environmental assessments underway [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The Qaidam Xinhua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. has been reported for illegally burying over ten thousand tons of industrial hazardous waste [1] - The company was ordered by higher authorities to rectify the situation before central environmental inspections, but it allegedly excavated and relocated the buried hazardous waste, causing secondary environmental damage [1] Group 2: Government Response - The Haixi Prefecture Committee and government have established an investigation team to verify the situation on-site and have mobilized chemical professionals for environmental testing [1] - Future actions will be based on the results of the investigation and testing, with legal and regulatory measures to be taken accordingly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a significant shift, with a notable withdrawal of long positions and a substantial outflow of funds, indicating a change in market sentiment towards this once-booming sector [1][2][3]. Market Dynamics - In the past three weeks, the holding volume and capital flow in the lithium carbonate futures market have changed, with long contracts being quietly closed and a considerable amount of capital leaving the market [1]. - As of September 16, 2025, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has dropped to 71,683 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.07%, a month-on-month decline of 11.94%, and a year-on-year drop of 8.33% [1]. Market Sentiment - A large-scale exit of long positions has been observed, with one trading supervisor reporting a 15% loss from closing their remaining long positions, which they deemed a wise decision compared to the risks of holding [2][6]. - On September 10, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures opened significantly lower, reaching a minimum of 68,600 yuan/ton, nearly hitting the limit down, and closing with a drop of over 5% [2][5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The anticipated resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine owned by CATL has heightened market expectations, leading to a shift in supply dynamics [3][12]. - The price of lithium carbonate has been affected by a decrease in production costs, with the cost of purchasing spodumene for lithium carbonate production dropping from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 65,000 yuan/ton [13]. - In August, China's lithium carbonate production reached a record high of 85,200 tons, contributing to increased supply and downward pressure on prices [14]. Demand Trends - Demand for lithium carbonate is showing signs of weakness, particularly in traditional sectors, with a notable decline in sales of mid-to-low-end electric vehicles [15]. - Despite a slight increase in production from leading battery manufacturers, actual purchasing intentions remain weak, leading to a cautious inventory strategy among companies [15][16]. Market Adjustments - Following the withdrawal of long positions, the market is seeking a new price equilibrium, with expectations that lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate between 65,000 yuan/ton and 80,000 yuan/ton in the near term [18]. - Companies are adjusting their strategies, with some integrating upstream resources and others entering trial production phases for new lithium projects [19]. Technological Innovations - New technologies such as lithium recycling and direct lithium extraction are gaining attention, with companies exploring ways to reduce costs further [21]. - Despite short-term price adjustments, the long-term outlook for the lithium industry remains positive, with projected annual demand growth of over 15% in the next five years [21].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Cuihua Jewelry, has indicated that its subsidiary, Siterui Lithium Industry, primarily produces lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium dihydrogen phosphate, which are essential raw materials for mainstream new energy batteries. The commercialization of solid-state battery technology is still in the development stage, and its specific applications are yet to be observed continuously [1]. Group 1 - The main products of Siterui Lithium Industry include lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium dihydrogen phosphate [1]. - These products are currently the primary raw materials for mainstream new energy batteries [1]. - The solid-state battery technology is still under development, with its commercialization and specific applications pending further observation [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Ganfeng Lithium Group [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in industrial chain prices from the bottom, with new projects and business developments accelerating [1]. - The company is expected to recover profitability in the second half of 2025 due to the rebound in lithium carbonate prices and improving supply-demand dynamics [4][16]. - Ganfeng Lithium is positioned as a leading player in the lithium industry, with a diversified product range and strong project pipeline [6][19]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, Ganfeng Lithium reported revenue of RMB 8.258 billion, a decrease of 13.82% year-on-year, and a net loss of RMB 536 million, which is an improvement of RMB 223 million compared to the previous year [3][15]. - The company anticipates revenue growth to RMB 21.173 billion in 2024, RMB 27.185 billion in 2025, and RMB 33.988 billion in 2026, with net profits projected to turn positive by 2025 [11][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 11.4% in 2023 to 15.0% by 2026 [11]. Project Development - The Goulamina spodumene project in Mali has commenced production, and the Cauchari-Olaroz brine project in Argentina is ramping up towards its designed capacity of 40,000 tons per year [5][17]. - The Mariana project in Argentina has also started production, with a designed capacity of 20,000 tons per year for lithium hydroxide [17]. Market Position and Product Range - Ganfeng Lithium has a comprehensive product portfolio that includes over 40 types of lithium compounds and metals, catering to diverse customer needs across various industries [9]. - The company is advancing in solid-state battery technology, with a fully integrated supply chain and commercialization capabilities [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market may pre - price the Fed's probability of restarting interest rate cuts during the September interest rate meeting this week [2]. - The technology sector in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors [2]. - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying [2]. - The Fed's decision may intensify market divergence and increase short - term volatility [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index is weakly volatile [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, driving up steel prices [2]. - Iron ore prices are supported by factors such as resumed shipments, increased hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - The prices of some energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand patterns, production maintenance, and inventory changes [2]. - The prices of some agricultural products are influenced by factors like supply, demand, and market sentiment [2]. - Some special and new - energy commodities are affected by factors such as cost, macro - environment, and industry meetings [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology mainline in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a double - buying strategy for options can be attempted [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying. A unilateral strategy suggests investors wait and see, and pay short - term attention to changes in the capital market, the equity market, and fundamentals [2]. Precious Metals - Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of easing has been rising, and the US dollar index has fallen to the lowest point of the year. For gold, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after the decision. An option double - buying strategy at the strike price of 840 can be tried. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is weakly volatile, and a spread arbitrage between December and October can be considered [2]. Steel and Related Products - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. It is recommended to go long on steel in the short term. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and short hot - rolled coils. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and short coke. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and short coke [2]. Energy and Chemical Products - For crude oil, it is recommended to mainly wait and see unilaterally. For urea, wait and see unilaterally, with a short - term support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton. For PX, it is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. For PTA, it is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term and conduct a rolling reverse spread between TA1 and TA5. For short - fiber, it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - grade polyester chips, its demand may decline in September, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol, wait and see unilaterally and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. For caustic soda, wait and see. For PVC, wait and see. For pure benzene, it follows styrene and oil prices in the short term. For styrene, conduct a rolling low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure around 7200, and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level. For synthetic rubber, its price is expected to fluctuate between 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE, it will oscillate between 7150 - 7450 in the short term. For PP, it is slightly bullish. For methanol, conduct range - bound operations between 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, operate the 01 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100. For live pigs, the market is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn, be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, observe whether the main contract of palm oil can stabilize above 9500. For sugar, pay attention to the pressure level around 5700 - 5750. For cotton, wait and see unilaterally. For eggs, reduce previous short positions and control positions. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, pay attention to the support at 10700. For soda ash, wait and see [2]. Special and New - Energy Commodities - For glass, wait and see and pay attention to the sentiment of the spot market during the peak season. For rubber, it is in a high - level oscillation due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, it is strongly volatile, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a net profit of 1.371 billion yuan in Q2 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.371 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter; the non-recurring net profit was 1.365 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company’s potassium chloride production reached approximately 1.0249 million tons in Q2 2025, a 6% increase quarter-on-quarter, while sales remained stable at approximately 886,800 tons [2] - The revenue from potassium chloride business in the first half of 2025 was 5.368 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.55%, with a gross margin of 59.95%, up 6.43 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Lithium Business - In Q2 2025, the company produced 11,500 tons of lithium carbonate, a 35% increase quarter-on-quarter, with sales of 12,500 tons, a 54% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] - The revenue from lithium carbonate business in the first half of 2025 was 1.242 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%, with a gross margin of 49.96%, down 10.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Project Development and Future Outlook - The company is making significant progress on its core projects, with the 40,000 tons/year lithium salt project reaching 71% overall progress and expected to enter trial production by the end of September [2] - The company is actively pursuing exploration in the Qaidam Basin and other regions, while also expanding its resource acquisition channels through cooperation in potassium fertilizer-rich areas [3] - The company has a strong cash position with 19 billion yuan in cash as of Q2 2025, indicating promising dividend expectations and long-term investment value [3]

Core Insights - The lithium salt industry has been affected by a cyclical downturn, leading to low product prices that significantly impacted the company's operations and performance [2] - The company has recognized asset impairment provisions according to accounting standards and incurred exchange losses due to currency fluctuations, which collectively affected its performance in the first half of the year [2] - Since July, lithium salt prices have rebounded from previous lows, and the company is committed to improving its operational management to enhance profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to the development of the solid-state battery industry and is actively advancing the research and industrialization of lithium sulfide, a key raw material for solid-state batteries [1] Group 1 - The company has established a lithium salt production research and development center that has determined the synthesis process route for lithium sulfide and the construction plan for the synthesis experimental platform [1] - The company is collaborating with several partner enterprises and universities to promote the research and industrialization of lithium sulfide and sulfide solid electrolytes [1] - The company expects to complete sample production and customer delivery by the end of the year, with plans to start pilot line construction in 2026 [1]

| 作者： | 胡彬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 期货研究院 新能源产业链周度策略 New Energy Industry Chain Weekly Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月12日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，周五SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格72398元/吨，环比上 一工作日下跌406元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.09-7.4万元/吨，均价7.2 45万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌400元/吨；工业级碳酸锂6.96-7. 08万元/吨，均价7.02万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌400元/吨。碳 酸锂期货价格持续横盘低位震荡，下游材 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Price Trend**: This week, lithium carbonate futures prices first declined and then rebounded due to the expected resumption of production at Jianxiawo. The 2511 contract closed at 71,160 yuan/ton, down 3,100 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2601 contract closed at 71,260 yuan/ton, down 3,060 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price decreased by 2,300 yuan/ton to 72,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Production has exceeded the level before the shutdown at Jianxiawo. Raw material shipments decreased while arrivals increased. Weekly production reached 19,963 tons, up 544 tons week-on-week. In September, lithium battery production is expected to be 168.4 GWh, a 5% month-on-month increase. Weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 139,000 tons, with upstream inventory at an absolute low and downstream inventory at an absolute high [2]. - **Market Outlook**: A weak outlook is expected. The 2511 - 2601 contract spread was -100 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week-on-week. The futures main contract price is expected to range between 61,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on inventory as the basis gradually recovers [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Price Tables**: The report presents data on the spot market prices of the lithium industry chain, including lithium ore, lithium salts, and battery products, showing price changes and percentages [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Lithium Ore - **Raw Material Situation**: Hedland Port started its annual maintenance and dredging on September 12, expected to last 3 - 4 weeks. Last week, Australian ore shipments reached a record high of 157,000 - 207,000 tons, but this week it was 0 tons. In September, the known arrival of Australian ore from all countries was 388,000 tons, with 364,000 tons arriving in China, a week - on - week increase of about 100,000 tons [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Lithium Salt Products - **Price and Production Graphs**: Multiple graphs illustrate the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the production volume of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, and the monthly and weekly production and inventory of lithium carbonate [9][10][11][12][13]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Lithium Batteries and Materials - **Production and Consumption Graphs**: Graphs show the apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China, inventory available days, and the production and capacity utilization rates of lithium battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the production and installation volume of lithium batteries [14][15][16].