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南华期货锡产业风险管理日报-20250916
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:57
Report Overview - Report Title: Tin Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Tin prices have strengthened recently due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which have boosted the valuation of the entire non - ferrous metals sector. In the short term, as investors' expectations for the Fed's September and October interest - rate decisions are relatively unified, the impact of monetary policy on tin prices may decrease. The short - term pattern of tight supply in the fundamentals is unlikely to change in September, and the weak demand has little impact on prices for now. Tin prices are likely to continue to fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [4]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price of tin is 273,960 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 13.17%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 23.0% [3]. - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For those with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main - contract futures at around 275,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate [3]. - **Raw Material Management**: For those with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main - contract futures at around 230,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [3]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's复产 falling short of expectations [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving from an expansion to a contraction cycle [6]. 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, continuous - one, and continuous - three contracts are 273,960 yuan/ton, 273,960 yuan/ton, and 273,950 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME Tin 3M price is 34,680 US dollars/ton, down 275 US dollars (- 0.79%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.84, up 0.03 (0.38%) [7]. - **Spot Data**: - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 273,300 yuan/ton, up 3,800 yuan (1.41%) week - on - week. The 1 tin premium is 100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 50%) week - on - week. Other spot prices such as tin concentrates and solder bars also showed increases [11]. 3.4 Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 17,852.83 yuan/ton, down 49.13 yuan (- 0.27%) daily. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [13]. 3.5 Tin Inventory - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory**: The total tin warehouse receipt quantity is 7,402 tons, up 76 tons (1.04%) daily. The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 5,135 tons, up 56 tons (1.1%), and in Shanghai is 1,446 tons, up 20 tons (1.4%) [15]. - **LME Tin Inventory**: The total LME tin inventory is 2,620 tons, up 235 tons (9.85%) [15].
南华期货沥青风险管理日报-20250912
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 13:36
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and persistent funding shortages, resulting in the short - term peak season not exceeding expectations. The inventory structure has improved with factory and social inventories declining. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, southern rainfall will continue to be high, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing as OPEC increases production. In the medium - to - long - term, demand will pick up as construction conditions improve in autumn, and there may be only one last chance for asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. After the short - term stabilization of crude oil, a long - position allocation can be attempted [3]. 3. Other Key Points 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.26% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.93% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3530 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3650 yuan/ton, and 3500 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract on September 12, 2025, had daily changes of 17 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent crude oil was 142.4603 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 1.7328 yuan/barrel; the crack spread of the futures main contract to Brent was 114.3876 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 16.4623 yuan/barrel [8]. 3.4 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Low pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - **Negative Factors**: An increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in the short - term, the drag on demand from the southern rainy season, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in operating rates due to consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8].
纯苯:苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250912
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 13:35
纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/9/12 戴一帆(投资咨询证号:Z0015428) 黄思婕(期货从业证号:F03130744) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5600-6200 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7400 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source: 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高,担心苯乙烯价格下 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失,可以根据企业的库存情况,做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润,弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2510 | 卖出 | 25% | 7300-740 0 | | 理 ...
南华煤焦产业风险管理日报-20250911
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 13:05
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coking Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies Price Forecast - Coking Coal: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1060 - 1260, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.86% and a historical percentile of 80.58% [3] - Coke: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1510 - 1750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.97% and a historical percentile of 61.85% [3] Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Hedging: For coke, when steel mills start a round of price cuts (2 - 3 rounds are generally expected), coke producers worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1750, 1800) and 50% at (1800 - 1850) [3] - Procurement Management: For coking coal, due to factors like repeated macro - sentiment, low seasonal coking coal mine开工率, and production - over - limit inspections in the fourth quarter, coking plants worried about future price increases can long the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1050, 1100) and 50% at (1000, 1050) [3] Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipt and Market Analysis Black Warehouse Receipt Data - On September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 8525 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 33782 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 800 hands, coke increased by 90 hands, ferrosilicon decreased by 585 sheets, and ferromanganese decreased by 118 sheets [4] Market Analysis - Coking Coal: After the end of production - restriction disturbances, mines resumed production, a round of price cuts was fully implemented, and coke producers were pessimistic about the future, reducing coking coal inventory. The supply - demand balance sheet of coking coal deteriorated marginally, and mines lowered spot prices. In the short term, the rebound space of coking coal is limited; in the long term, enterprises with raw - material procurement plans can consider long - position hedging in the far - month contracts [4] - Coke: Coke producers' immediate profits are good, and after the lifting of production restrictions, production is expected to quickly recover. The supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. Coke is restricted by price - cut expectations, and the market performance may be slightly weaker than coking coal [4] Group 4: Price and Spread Data Futures Price and Basis - Coking Coal: The basis of different varieties (e.g., Tangshan Mongolian No. 5, Port Mongolian No. 5) showed different changes on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] - Coke: The basis of different varieties (e.g., Rizhao Port Wet - Quenched, Jinzhong Wet - Quenched) also showed different changes [7] Futures Spread - Coking Coal: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05) changed on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] - Coke: The spreads between different contracts also changed [7] Other Ratios - The current盘面coking profit is - 87, the main mine - coke ratio is 0.488, the main screw - coke ratio is 1.897, and the main carbon - coal ratio is 1.429, all showing certain changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] Group 5: Spot Price and Profit Data Spot Price - Coking Coal: The spot prices of various coking coal varieties (e.g., Anze Low - Sulfur Main Coking Coal, Mongolian No. 5 Raw Coal at 288 Port) showed different changes on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [8] - Coke: The spot prices of various coke varieties (e.g., Jinzhong Quasi - First - Grade Wet - Quenched Coke, Lvliang Quasi - First - Grade Dry - Quenched Coke) also showed different changes [10] Profit Data - Coking Profit: The immediate coking profit is 127 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase compared with the previous day but a decrease compared with the previous week [10] - Import Profit: The import profits of different coal - importing sources (e.g., Mongolian coal, Australian coal, Russian coal) showed different changes [10] - Export Profit: The coke export profit is 364 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease compared with the previous week [10] Group 6: Market Outlook and Influencing Factors Market Outlook - In the short term, downstream steel inventories continue to accumulate, the blast - furnace link still has profits, and the supply of hot metal is resilient. The contradiction in the steel market is difficult to resolve in the short term, limiting the rebound space of coking coal. Coke may be slightly weaker than coking coal [4] - In the long term, "anti - involution" is the focus in the second half of the year. Investors need to be vigilant about the impact of repeated macro - sentiment on the coal and coking market [4] Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: The details of the "anti - involution" policy have not been announced, and there may be repeated macro - sentiment. Downstream coke producers have seasonal inventory - replenishment demand for coking coal before the National Day holiday [4][6] - Bearish Factors: The daily consumption of thermal coal has reached an inflection point, and the demand for thermal coal has weakened, dragging down the price of coking blending coal [6]
贵金属数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, although the precious metals market experiences high - level fluctuations due to "buy the rumor, sell the fact", factors such as the unexpected decline in the US August PPI and the cooling of the US employment market increase the probability of a Fed rate cut in September and raise the expectation of a 50bp cut, so precious metal prices are still supported. Before the rate cut is implemented, precious metal prices are expected to remain at high levels, but investors should beware of increased volatility. Gold long positions can be held [5]. - In the long - term, with Fed rate cut expectations, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On September 10, 2025, compared with September 9, London gold spot decreased by 0.1% to $3641.89/ounce, London silver spot decreased by 0.6% to $41.02/ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 0.2% to $3680.00/ounce, and COMEX silver decreased by 0.9% to $41.47/ounce. AU2510 was at 833.42 yuan/gram with a 0.1% decrease, and AG2510 was at 9796 yuan/kg with a 0.5% decrease. AU (T + D) decreased by 0.2% to 829.50 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) decreased by 0.6% to 9771 yuan/kg [5]. - Regarding price spreads, from September 9 to 10, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increased by 12.6%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increased by 47.1%, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 53.3%, and the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) decreased by 0.2%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 0.4%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 0.7% [5]. Position Data - As of September 9, 2025, compared with September 8, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 979.68 tons, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.45% to 15069.6026 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 14.52% to 315796 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 16.43% to 249530 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased by 14.79% to 18543 contracts [5]. Inventory Data - On September 10, 2025, compared with September 9, SHFE gold inventory increased by 3.46% to 45951 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.15% to 1252170 kg. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.21% to 38912305 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.35% to 520707139 troy ounces [5]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On September 10, 2025, compared with September 9, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.08% to 7.11. The US dollar index increased by 0.33% to 97.77, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.43% to 3.54%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.74% to 4.08%, the VIX decreased by 0.46% to 15.04, the S&P 500 increased by 0.27% to 6512.61, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.50% to 62.77 [5]. Market Review - On September 10, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.21% at 833.42 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.72% at 9796 yuan/kg [5].
国泰君安期货:锌:区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 08:03
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "Range-bound" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, with a current trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,215 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day, while the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2,867 dollars/ton, down 0.21% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 83,724 lots, a decrease of 16,741 lots, and the LME Zinc trading volume was 9,280 lots, an increase of 215 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 103,054 lots, a decrease of 5,145 lots, and the LME Zinc open interest was 201,219 lots, an increase of 1,496 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -70 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was 17.62 dollars/ton, up 1.16 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventories**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 44,329 tons, an increase of 1,648 tons, and LME Zinc inventory was 50,825 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [1] News - Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo'an stated that the government will focus on strengthening the domestic market, implement more proactive fiscal policies, and carry out key tasks such as supporting employment and foreign trade, cultivating new growth drivers, and improving people's livelihoods [2] - In August, China's CPI turned negative year-on-year, down 0.4%, while the core CPI increased to 0.9%. The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.9%. The decrease in CPI was mainly due to a high base last year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases [2][3] Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]
南华金属日报:关注晚间美CPI对降息预期影响-20250911
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 04:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, but in the short - term, London gold and silver may face correction pressure due to overbought technical indicators. The inflation data is not expected to support a 50BP rate cut, and economic or employment deterioration is the main driving factor. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, and existing long positions can be reduced on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market oscillated at high levels. Investors are waiting for the US August CPI data to guide the rate cut amplitude in mid - September. Since the end of August, the strength of precious metals has been mainly affected by the enhanced expectation of Fed easing and the significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields. The market focus is on the Fed's rate cut expectation, personnel adjustment and independence issues, and bond market risks. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3680.4 per ounce, down 0.05%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $41.65 per ounce, up 0.75%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 833.42 yuan per gram, up 0.21%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9796 yuan per kilogram, down 0.72%. The US August PPI data supported the September rate cut expectation and did not rule out the possibility of a 50BP rate cut [2]. 3.2 Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - The expectation of a rate cut within the year has slightly declined, and the expectation of a 50BP rate cut in September has cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings slightly increased by 0.27 tons to 979.95 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings were 15069.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.9 tons to 1252.2 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.3 tons to 1248.3 tons as of the week ending September 5 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US CPI data at 20:30 on Thursday. In terms of events, this week is the blackout period for Fed officials before the September 18 Fed interest rate decision. At 20:15 on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision [3]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal contracts, including SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, etc. For example, SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 833.42 yuan per gram, down 1.06 yuan or 0.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various inventories and holdings, such as SHFE gold and silver inventories, CME gold and silver inventories, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings. For instance, SHFE gold inventory was 45951 kilograms, up 1536 kilograms or 3.46% [15]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary**: The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various financial indicators, including the US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, etc. For example, the US dollar index was at 97.8197, up 0.0573 or 0.06% [18].
国债期货日报-20250910
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 10:22
国债期货日报 2025/09/10 徐晨曦(投资咨询证号:Z0001908) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.348 | 102.39 | -0.042 | TS合约持仓(手) | 73128 | 72585 | 543 | | TF2512 | 105.445 | 105.58 | -0.135 | TF合约持仓(手) | 144218 | 145470 | -1252 | | T2512 | 107.505 | 107.785 | -0.28 | T合约持仓(手) | 230673 | 224582 | 6091 | | TL2512 | 114.87 | 115.76 | -0.89 | TL合约持仓(手) | 153937 | 144317 | 9620 | | TS基差(CTD) | -0.0418 | -0.03 ...
期货业中报揭晓:上市期货公司业绩分化,行业步入服务资本新时代
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 10:40
Core Viewpoint - The performance of A-share listed futures companies in the first half of 2025 shows significant divergence, with only Ruida Futures achieving growth in both revenue and net profit, while others like Nanhua Futures, Yong'an Futures, and Hongye Futures faced declines or losses [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - The four listed futures companies collectively achieved a revenue of 8.027 billion yuan and a net profit of 625 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [1]. - Ruida Futures reported a revenue increase of 4.49% to 1.047 billion yuan and a net profit surge of 66.49% to 228 million yuan [2][4]. - Nanhua Futures experienced a revenue drop of 58.27% to 1.101 billion yuan, but a slight net profit increase of 0.46% to 231 million yuan [4]. - Yong'an Futures had the largest revenue of 5.556 billion yuan, but it declined by 54.12%, with a net profit decrease of 44.69% to 170 million yuan [4]. - Hongye Futures faced the most severe challenges, with a revenue drop of 68.64% to 323 million yuan and a net loss of 3.6056 million yuan, reflecting a 128.17% decline in net profit [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The futures industry is undergoing a transformation from a "channel dividend" era to a "service and capital dividend" phase, necessitating core competencies in specialization, technology, and internationalization for companies to succeed [1][3]. - Despite the poor performance of A-share listed futures companies, the overall futures industry showed optimism, with a net profit of 5.074 billion yuan and a revenue of 18.676 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32% and 3.89%, respectively [2][3]. - The decline in revenue for many A-share listed companies is attributed to the impact of the "net amount method" of accounting, which has particularly affected those focused on trade [2][3].
国债期货日报:如期反弹-20250903
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 10:35
Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests a band - trading approach. It notes that on September 3, 2025, treasury bond futures rebounded as expected. Given the current situation where the 10 - year treasury bond yield has returned to 1.75% and the bond market lacks catalytic factors, caution should be exercised regarding the further upside potential. It advises against chasing high prices, setting profit - taking when bottom - fishing, and keeping a small long position at low levels [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Performance - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher, rose in the morning and then declined, fluctuated in the afternoon, and rose again at the end of the session, with all varieties closing up. Spot bond yields generally declined. There was a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion from the open market, and the funds were loose with DR001 at 1.31% [1]. - The A - share market continued to decline with a large adjustment range on this day. The morning rebound in the stock market reduced the bond market's gains, but the stock market's inability to stop the decline in the afternoon led to an expansion of the bond market's gains at the end of the session. The stock market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, and if it enters a range - bound state in the future, its impact on the bond market will gradually weaken [2]. 2. Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 03 Price | 2025 - 09 - 02 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 03 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 02 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.44 | 102.41 | 0.03 | 75575 | 74372 | 1203 | | TF2512 | 105.69 | 105.55 | 0.14 | 139553 | 138200 | 1353 | | T2512 | 108.12 | 107.93 | 0.19 | 213046 | 205357 | 7689 | | TL2512 | 117.03 | 116.61 | 0.42 | 142705 | 140312 | 2393 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0225 | - 0.04 | 0.0175 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 25604 | 21492 | 4112 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0846 | 0.0256 | 0.059 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 62433 | 52692 | 9741 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.4403 | 0.3548 | 0.0855 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 86857 | 60757 | 26100 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.7408 | 0.5696 | 0.1712 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 156936 | 116176 | 40760 | [3] 3. Other Information - U.S. technology stocks led the decline in the U.S. stock market, and the 30 - year treasury bond yields of the UK, Germany, and France reached multi - year highs. Gold futures broke through $3600, hitting a record high [2]. - Trump stated that he would request the Supreme Court to make a "quick ruling" on the global tariff case. If he wins, the stock market will rise sharply; otherwise, it will experience a huge shock. Bessent predicted that the Supreme Court would support Trump's tariff policy but was also considering alternative plans [2].