▍ Trump put：特朗普政府对即将实施的对等关税政策立场有所松动。 2月中旬，美国政府发布《对等贸易与关税备忘录》，宣布将对贸易伙伴实施对等关税。美国总 统特朗普随后宣布，自4月2日起将全面实施对等关税政策。然而，在美国对等关税全面加征日渐 迫近之时，特朗普于3月2 1日表示，虽不会为即将实施的关税政策设立豁免，但对等关税政策将 保留一定的"灵活性"。3月2 4日，特朗普进一步宣布，未来几天将对汽车、木材及芯片征收额外 关税，但其在全面对等关税征收的表述上有所缓和。特朗普表示，并非所有国家的关税都将在4 月2日施行，部分国家或将获得豁免，但仍将遵循对等原则。此前，欧盟对汽车进口征收1 0%的 关税，是美国乘用车进口税率2 . 5%的四倍。特朗普在宣布部分国家关税豁免时提及，欧盟已同意 将汽车关税降至2 . 5%。在临近对等关税政策实施之际，特朗普政府的关税政策立场较此前已出现 一定程度的松动，但仍需关注四月初美国政府贸易备忘录调查结果以及后续对等关税的实际执行 情况。此外，近期投资者也担忧联邦裁员/削减支出会对美国就业和消费造成较大的负面冲击。但 我们不排除经济走弱的迹象下，未来美国财政政策会出现一定的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial fraud case involving Zhongqingbao may be linked to the fraudulent IPO of Gaodexin, with significant implications for both companies and their governance structures [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Misconduct - Zhongqingbao's subsidiary, Shenzhen Baoteng Internet Technology Co., Ltd., engaged in fictitious transactions with Gaodexin and its affiliates, inflating revenue and costs without commercial substance [2][3]. - The inflated revenues from 2019 to 2021 amounted to a total of 79.6 million yuan, representing 20%-44.7% of Gaodexin's fictitious income during the same period [3]. - Specific inflated figures include 33.61 million yuan in 2019, 28.09 million yuan in 2020, and 17.88 million yuan in 2021, with corresponding profit manipulations [3]. Group 2: Governance Issues - The case highlights severe governance flaws within Zhongqingbao, particularly the dominance of the controlling shareholder, Li Ruijie, leading to ineffective internal controls [5][6]. - The company has a history of information disclosure violations, including the acquisition of a shell company without proper disclosure [6]. - The controlling shareholder's actions, such as concealing information for seven months, demonstrate a prioritization of personal interests over corporate governance [5]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The case underscores the need for enhanced regulatory scrutiny, particularly regarding related-party transactions and the establishment of a cross-market data-sharing platform to identify abnormal financial flows [8]. - There is a call for stricter penalties for financial misconduct, as current fines are insufficient compared to the potential gains from fraudulent activities [8]. - The governance structure of companies like Zhongqingbao needs reform, including a requirement for independent directors to hold a majority on the board and the need to focus on core business innovation rather than speculative trends [9].

数字化转型成效显著。公司 2024 年实现数字化转型收入 2788 亿元（同比 +9.85%），占通服收入比提升 1.9pct 至 31.3%。政企市场实现收入 2091 亿 元（同比+8.8%），政企客户达 3259 万家。其中，移动云实现收入 1004 亿 元（同比+20.4%）。公司指引 2025 年数字化转型收入持续良好增长。 加强算力投资，规划智算能力显著提升。2024 年公司完成投资 1640 亿元（略 低于此前 1730 亿元指引），规划 2025 年投资 1512 亿元。其中，5G 网络投 资规划 582 亿元（同比-15.7%），算力规划投资 373 亿元（同比+0.5%）。 公司规划 2025 年底实现通算（FP32）算力累积达 8.9 EFLOPS（同比提升 0.4 EFLOPS）、智算（FP16）算力大于 34 EFLOPS（同比提升约 4.8EFLOPS）。 计划 3 年内派息率逐步提升至 75%以上。董事会建议 2024 年全年派息率为 73%，对应末期股息每股 2.49 港元，连同已派发的中期股息，2023 年全年 股息合计每股 5.09 港元，较 2023 年同比增长 5.4% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Unicom (600050.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][25] Core Views - In 2024, China Unicom achieved a revenue of 389.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9 billion yuan, which is a 10.5% increase year-on-year [1][9] - The company has shown significant growth in its innovative business sectors, with industrial internet revenue reaching 82.4 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year, and notable performance in cloud computing, data centers, and big data services [2][13] - The capital expenditure for 2024 was 61.4 billion yuan, with a decreasing ratio of capital expenditure to revenue, indicating improved efficiency in capital allocation [3][16] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 99.5 billion yuan, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 690 million yuan, up 16.26% year-on-year [1][9] - The EBITDA for 2024 reached 92.3 billion yuan, and the return on equity (ROE) was 5.49%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points year-on-year [1][9] Business Growth - The user structure of traditional businesses continues to optimize, with "Big Connection" users reaching 1.14 billion, a net increase of 195 million users for the year [2][15] - The penetration rate of 5G package users reached 83%, with 290 million users, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5 percentage points [2][15] Capital Expenditure and Cost Management - The capital expenditure for 2024 was 61.4 billion yuan, with a planned reduction to 55 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a focus on cost efficiency [3][16] - The depreciation and amortization expenses for 2024 were 77.8 billion yuan, with a ratio to revenue decreasing by 2.8 percentage points compared to 2023 [3][16] Dividend Policy - The company proposed a final dividend of 0.0621 yuan per share, with an annual dividend of 0.158 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 55%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Unicom (600050.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][25] Core Views - In 2024, China Unicom achieved a net profit of 9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, with total revenue reaching 389.6 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year [1][9] - The company has shown significant growth in its innovative business sectors, with industrial internet revenue reaching 82.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24% [2][13] - The capital expenditure for 2024 was 61.4 billion yuan, with a decreasing ratio of capital expenditure to revenue, indicating improved efficiency [3][16] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, China Unicom's revenue was 389.6 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9 billion yuan and EBITDA of 92.3 billion yuan [1][9] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 99.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 690 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.26% [1][9] Business Growth - The industrial internet segment generated 82.4 billion yuan in revenue, with notable performances in cloud computing (36.1 billion yuan, +17.1%), data centers (25.9 billion yuan, +7.4%), and big data services (6.4 billion yuan, +20.8%) [2][13] - The user base for "Big Connection" reached 1.14 billion, with a net increase of 195 million users, while 5G package users reached 290 million, with a penetration rate of 83% [2][15] Capital Expenditure and Cost Management - Capital expenditure for 2024 was 61.4 billion yuan, with a planned reduction to 55 billion yuan for 2025 [3][16] - The depreciation and amortization expenses for 2024 were 77.8 billion yuan, with a ratio to revenue decreasing by 2.8 percentage points to 23.8% [3][16] Dividend Policy - The company proposed a final dividend of 0.0621 yuan per share, with an annual dividend of 0.158 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 55%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][22]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Guomai Technology experienced a significant decline of 6.61% on March 18, with a trading volume of 2.995 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 21.83% [2] Trading Data - The stock was listed on the Dragon and Tiger list due to a daily fluctuation of 15.66% and a daily decline deviation of -7.11% [2] - The net buying from the Shenzhen Stock Connect was 36.35 million yuan, while the total net selling from brokerage seats was 85.15 million yuan [2] - The top five brokerage seats accounted for a total transaction of 616 million yuan, with a buying amount of 283 million yuan and a selling amount of 332 million yuan, resulting in a net selling of 48.80 million yuan [3] Fund Flow - The stock saw a net outflow of 383 million yuan from main funds today, with a large single net outflow of 292 million yuan and a big single net outflow of 90.46 million yuan [3] - Over the past five days, the main funds experienced a net outflow of 120 million yuan [3] Margin Trading Data - As of March 17, the margin trading balance for the stock was 422 million yuan, with a financing balance of 418 million yuan and a securities lending balance of 3.85 million yuan [3] - The financing balance increased by 204 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth of 95.07%, while the securities lending balance increased by 971,100 yuan, a growth of 33.70% [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - IDT Corporation generated record levels of gross profit, income from operations, and adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA reaching a record $34 million, bringing the total for the first half of the year to $63 million [21][11][12] - The company expects to achieve approximately 40% adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal 2025, building on the record $90 million obtained in fiscal 2024 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - NRS reported a 32% growth in recurring revenue, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $10 million, and $310 in recurring revenue per terminal [15][11] - BOSS Money achieved a transaction volume of 5.7 million, with digital transactions representing over 80% of all remittances, and gross profit growth of 35% to a record $22 million [16][17] - net2phone's subscription revenue increased by 9% to $21 million, with a 14% increase on a constant currency basis [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same-store sales at NRS retailers increased by 3.5% year-over-year in February, indicating healthy business activity [22] - BOSS Money's transaction volume in February increased by over 30% compared to the previous year, achieving the second highest weekly remittance transaction volume in its history [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on deepening market penetration and enhancing the value of its solutions for retailers through new features and functionalities [7] - IDT plans to continue returning value to shareholders through stock repurchases and increasing dividends, with a 20% increase in the quarterly dividend announced [11][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautiously optimistic about the impact of new federal immigration policies, noting no significant slowdown in business across segments [22] - The company is optimistic about the trajectory and opportunities in the U.S. market, with no immediate plans for organic international expansion [35] Other Important Information - The company provided capital expenditures from each reporting segment for the first time, offering greater clarity into cash generation [13] - IDT's traditional communications segment has seen adjusted EBITDA increase for three consecutive quarters, surpassing $20 million for the first time since fiscal 2022 [11][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: NRS terminal growth guidance - Management acknowledged a slight delay in adding units but expressed confidence in making up for it over the year due to new sales personnel [36] Question: Advertising revenue performance - Advertising revenue increased by 12% year-over-year, with data side growth of nearly 40% [34] Question: International expansion plans for NRS - Management indicated that international expansion is not a current focus, with potential acquisitions being a more likely route for entering new markets [35] Question: net2phone revenue growth despite low seat count addition - Management noted a good pipeline of larger deals and expects better performance in the second half of the year [39] Question: BOSS Money working capital requirements - Management clarified that the strong balance sheet supports working capital needs, allowing avoidance of financing costs [45] Question: Balancing profitability and growth in BOSS Money - Management emphasized a cautious approach to growth, focusing on profitability while exploring opportunities for investment in customer acquisition [51][56] Question: Expansion into new verticals for BOSS Money - Management reported positive initial results from new markets like Venezuela, while Brazil is still in the launch phase [62]

蛇年第四个交易日，a股成交1.72万亿，中位数继续上涨1.07%，过完春节后的每一个交易日都是涨的。 这主要还是 感谢deepseek - r1模型在1月27日 发布后 推动的 ai产业变化， 让 中国能够更大范围，更深程度的 介入 ai快车道。 以前虽然也有百度、阿里、字节这些公司在做ai，但整体思路和发展方向都是遵循美帝科技传过来的经验，堆算力堆人力，门槛和成本都高，是重 资本消耗型产业，没点家底玩不起。 现在被deepseek重新解构了模型，门槛和成本暴降，一下子把各行各业对ai的需求都激活了。我今天在b站上看了个视频，deepseek可以下载部署 的个人电脑和手机里，虽然性能要差一些，但胜在便捷好用。一旦ai模型可以自定义模块化安装，它才会全面渗透进我们日常生活的各个细节。 感觉ai的发展又一次遵循了过去30年的科技规律，美国人先创新，中国人想办法降成本，最后不断改良普惠全球。 有的呀，当初openai推出的时候给美股打了老长一段时间鸡血，我们当时被芯片封锁，只能眼馋流口水，现在咱们的科技树突然被暴力解锁，肯定是咔咔 一顿点，会有一段较为舒服的红利期。 从某种意义上来说，无论是a股科技板块还是香港中概 ...

文/梧桐小新 1月13日，深圳市高德信通信股份有限公司（高德信，832645）发布公告称收到深圳证监局《行政处罚决定书》。经查明，高德信存在以下两项违法违规事项： 1、2018年至2021年年度报告存在虚假记载，构成信息披露违法行为：高德信通过 虚构商企互联网接入、数字电路等服务业务及伪造用户数据等虚增营业收入， 2018年至2021年分别虚增营业收入6,007.36万元、12,386.59万元、13,766.04万元、12,950.53万元 ，占当期披露营业收入的比例分别为38.11%、59.77%、75.26%、 63.27%。 2、公开发行文件编造重大虚假内容，构成欺诈发行违法行为：2021年11月9日，高德信公开披露《向不特定合格投资者公开发行股票说明书(申报稿)》、最近三年 及一期的财务报告和审计报告(申报稿)等文件，所涉报告期为2018年至2021年6月。2021年11月24日和12月10日，高德信分别召开第三届董事会第十次会议和2021 年第六次临时股东大会， 决议将发行申请变更为在北京证券交易所上市。后经北京证券交易所两轮审核问询，高德信进行回复，并更新2021年年度报告数据。 2022年4月 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 趋势的力量 每日看盘 今日A股三大指数向下调整，两市共成交11 4 8 3亿，较前个交易日放量3 6 3亿。其中沪指下跌 1 . 3 3%，收报3 1 6 8 . 5 2点；深成指下跌1 . 8 0%，收报9 7 9 5 . 9 4点；创业板指下跌1 . 7 6%，收报 1 9 7 5 . 3 0点。 昨天最后讲大概率再盘一下向下结果盘一下都没有，直接就选择了方向，虽然我们一直讲休 息、轻仓、观望，但当市场真的走出了很差的走势的时候，并没有因为预测对而有一点点开 心，基本只有浓浓的失望，以及对市场越来越多的怀疑。 盘面上，全天两市5 2 8家上涨，4 6 2 1家下跌，仅仅比1月3日好那么一点点，上海2 6 0家上涨， 深圳2 6 8家上涨，又是一个泥沙俱下的走势。中位数跌幅又2 . 8 0%，微盘股下跌3 . 1 8%，中证 2 0 0 0下跌3 . 0 5%，不得不承认的是，或许你还没感受到反弹，反弹就已经结束了。 板块上，全军覆没，东财的行业板块分类8 6个板块全部下跌，商业百货、文化传媒、通信服 务、光伏设备、家电行业、互联网、计算机等跌幅居前。题材热点上，也只 ...