Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a mixed trading session with military stocks surging and real estate and financial sectors gaining momentum, while a press conference highlighted new financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting investor confidence [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices opened high but closed lower with narrow fluctuations [1]. - Military stocks saw a significant rally, while the real estate and large financial sectors also contributed positively to the market [1]. - The Red Dividend ETF (530880) rose by 0.72% by the afternoon close [1]. Group 2: Key Stocks - Notable individual stocks included Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Bank of China, both rising over 2%, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Beijing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China increased by over 1% [1]. - Other stocks such as COSCO Shipping Holdings and Sinopec also experienced upward movement [1]. Group 3: Financial Policies - A press conference was held by the State Council Information Office, featuring key financial leaders discussing a "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations" [1]. - Measures announced include expanding the pilot scope for insurance funds' long-term investments, adjusting regulatory rules to lower risk factors for stock investments by 10%, and promoting long-term assessment mechanisms [1]. - According to Guosen Securities, traditional dividend, low-volatility dividend, and cash flow factors are expected to achieve both "absolute returns + excess returns," with long-term dividend assets showing advantages in terms of timing, annualized returns, and win-odds [1].

摘要：【图】2025年3月天津市原油产量数据分析 2025年3月原油产量统计： 原油产量：350.9 万吨 同比增长：4.4% 增速较上一年同期变化：低0.9个百分点 据统计，2025年3月天津市规模以上工业企业原油产量与上年同期相比增长了4.4%，达350.9万吨，增速 较上一年同期低0.9个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国高0.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 原油产量1902.5万吨的比重为18.4%。 详见下图： 同比增长：3.2% 增速较上一年同期变化：低2.7个百分点 据统计，2025年1－3月，天津市规模以上工业企业原油产量与上年同期相比增长了3.2%，达1005.3万 吨，增速较上一年同期低2.7个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国高2.1个百分点，约占同期全国规模 以上企业原油产量5408.8万吨的比重为18.6%。详见下图： 图2：天津市原油产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：天津市原油产量分月（当月值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 2025年1-3月原油产量统计： 原油产量：1005.3 万吨 产业调研网为 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Views - The company is experiencing marginal improvements in refining and deepening its chemical platform, which is expected to enhance its performance [1] - The company reported a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter [6] - The company is focusing on international expansion and the construction of a diversified chemical platform, which is expected to drive future growth [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 326.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 724.48 million yuan, down 37.44% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 749.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.54% year-on-year, but a net profit of 588 million yuan, which is an increase of 6.53% year-on-year and a significant increase of 486.62% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 11.48%, with expectations for it to rise to 12.97% in 2025 [3][6] Business Segments - The refining and chemical segments showed improvements, with the refining segment achieving a gross profit of 20.71 billion yuan and a margin of 17.57% in 2024 [6] - The chemical segment benefited from price recovery, contributing to steady cash flow growth, with a net profit of 3.54 billion yuan from Zhejiang Petrochemical, a key performance driver for the company [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its international strategy and enhancing its chemical platform, with several projects underway, including the production of α-olefins and rare earth butadiene rubber [6] - The company has engaged in share buybacks and has a stable dividend policy, reflecting long-term investment value [6] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 2.89 billion yuan for 2025, 3.83 billion yuan for 2026, and 4.88 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.29, 0.38, and 0.48 yuan respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the refining margins have improved, and the company is deepening its chemical platform [1] - The company experienced significant performance recovery in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter [6] - The chemical segment benefits from price spread recovery, leading to steady cash flow growth [6] - The company is actively pursuing international expansion and enhancing its chemical platform [6] - The controlling shareholder has been consistently buying back shares, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value [6] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 shows a gradual increase in net profit and earnings per share [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 326,475.16 million yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.42% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 724.48 million yuan, down 37.44% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 749.75 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.54% but a quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit of 486.62% [6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 11.48%, with expectations for improvement in subsequent years [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2,887.98 million yuan, 3,831.54 million yuan, and 4,876.71 million yuan respectively [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be 0.29 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.48 yuan [6] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 30.29, 22.83, and 17.94 respectively [6]

新湖期货 短期沥青盘面价格重点关注原油价格变动 冠通期货 供需双弱下，建议沥青观望 国信期货 沥青基本面呈现供需皆弱格局，价格中枢锚定原油波动 新湖期货：短期沥青盘面价格重点关注原油价格变动 近期盘面基本跟随原油价格变动。山东地区主要品牌沥青仍实行限量发货策略，市场流通资源有限，这 在一定程度上促使价格平缓回落，河北主要炼厂今日另一套装置点火，后期供应或有所提升，今日炼厂 释放6月合同，市场观望氛围浓，成交量暂不多。南方地区资源供应有所增加，华南供应持续处于高 位，而需求尚未出现爆发式增长。短期盘面价格重点关注原油价格变动。 5月7日盘中，沥青期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至3441.00元。截止发稿，沥青主力合约 报3416.00元，涨幅2.18%。 沥青期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 4月16日，美国财政部制裁购买伊朗原油的山东胜星化工，表示要将伊朗的非法石油出口降至零。美伊 第四轮间接谈判推迟，近期美国持续加大对伊朗的制裁，美国最新制裁从事伊朗石油贸易的实体。关注 美国对伊朗原油的制裁是否会放松。随着全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解，只是中美贸易战继续，而且美国 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-05-07 成本端支撑转弱，沥青短期市场压力有限 市场分析 1、5月7日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2506合约下午收盘价3361元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌45元/吨，跌幅 1.32%；持仓113918手，环比上涨984手，成交194405手，环比下降23855手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3700—4086元/吨；山东，3410—3600元/吨；华南，3320—3430元/吨； 华东，3500—3570元/吨。 昨日东北、华北、山东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格均出现下跌，华南地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余地区沥青 现货价格大体企稳。假期期间原油价格下移，带动节后盘面走低，沥青现货市场交投氛围平淡。就沥青自身基本 面而言，供需两弱格局延续，市场缺乏明显驱动，油价反复波动，盘面或继续受到宏观情绪与原油端影响。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Futures-spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 3.4% at 2,837 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.22% at 3,328 yuan/ton [1] - International oil prices tumbled during the May Day holiday, causing commodities such as crude oil and fuel oil to decline after the holiday. There was a rebound in the night session yesterday, and the repeated fluctuations in the market have disturbed the prices of downstream energy and chemical products [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil itself continue to be a mix of long and short factors, and downstream demand shows a differentiated trend. Among them, the demand from refineries and the shipping sector is suppressed, while there is a significant incremental expectation for power generation demand, which includes seasonal and natural gas substitution effects. In addition, as OPEC plans to rapidly increase production, the structural shortage of medium and heavy crude oil is expected to ease marginally, which will boost the production of high-sulfur fuel oil to a certain extent [1] - In terms of low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent fundamentals and market structure show signs of marginal improvement. The spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread have all strengthened to a certain extent. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has tightened periodically, and the short-term market pressure is limited. However, the trend of a large amount of remaining production capacity and the substitution of bunker fuel consumption has not reversed, and the current state may not be very sustainable [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 3.4% at 2,837 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.22% at 3,328 yuan/ton [1] - International oil prices tumbled during the May Day holiday, causing commodities such as crude oil and fuel oil to decline after the holiday. There was a rebound in the night session yesterday, and the repeated fluctuations in the market have disturbed the prices of downstream energy and chemical products [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil itself continue to be a mix of long and short factors, and downstream demand shows a differentiated trend. Among them, the demand from refineries and the shipping sector is suppressed, while there is a significant incremental expectation for power generation demand, which includes seasonal and natural gas substitution effects. In addition, as OPEC plans to rapidly increase production, the structural shortage of medium and heavy crude oil is expected to ease marginally, which will boost the production of high-sulfur fuel oil to a certain extent [1] - In terms of low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent fundamentals and market structure show signs of marginal improvement. The spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread have all strengthened to a certain extent. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has tightened periodically, and the short-term market pressure is limited. However, the trend of a large amount of remaining production capacity and the substitution of bunker fuel consumption has not reversed, and the current state may not be very sustainable [1] Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillation [2] - Low-sulfur: Oscillation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Futures-spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]

化工日报 | 2025-05-07 市场分析 成本端，五一假期期间，欧佩克+成员国同意将6月份的石油供应增加41.1万桶/日，这是继5月出人意料地大幅增产 后，该联盟连续第二个月加快供应恢复步伐，旨在惩罚那些违反配额、超额生产的成员国，原油供应压力持续， 油价承压下行。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年，后续随着汽油需求旺季到来可能会季节 性好转，但整体在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待。国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~4月韩国出口到美 国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，亚洲MX和甲苯与石脑油价差表现低迷，短流程装置仍处于亏损状态， 大部分 PX 工厂停止外采 MX 生产 PX，成本端支撑有限。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN191美元/吨(环比变动+1.00美元/吨）。近期低利润下日韩PX装置计划外检修/降负有所 增加，PXN低位反弹，但5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，同时PTA5月检修依然较多，预计 PX平衡表将小幅累库。整体来看，当前PXN估值不高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the advancements made by Maoming Petrochemical in digital transformation and intelligent operations, particularly through the implementation of an intelligent operation center and AI tools to enhance decision-making and operational efficiency [1][2][3] Group 2 - Maoming Petrochemical has launched its intelligent operation center and "AI Inquiry Assistant," integrating 18 business systems and 420 key performance indicators for real-time monitoring across various critical areas such as safety supervision and production operations [1] - The company is committed to building a "Smart Maoming Petrochemical" by promoting the integration of information technology and operational technology, focusing on data governance, platform enhancement, and application optimization [1] - In data asset management, the company has adopted a "data as an asset" strategy, creating a comprehensive governance system that has improved data analysis efficiency by 60% and data service invocation efficiency by 80% [2] - Maoming Petrochemical has established the first cloud-based data lake for refining enterprises, consolidating data from 34 systems to eliminate data silos and enhance data accessibility [2] - The company has implemented dynamic management of IT assets, significantly improving inventory efficiency and reducing downtime through real-time monitoring capabilities [2] - In the field of artificial intelligence, Maoming Petrochemical has developed applications such as "Xiao Mao AI System Q&A" to enhance risk analysis and provide quick access to internal control knowledge for employees [3]

中国科学院大连化学物理研究所研究员叶茂指出，随着新型工业化、"双碳"等国家战略目标的推进，以 石油化工为代表的流程工业对新技术的需求更加迫切。根据统计数据，近7年我国化工行业产能利用率 仅为73%，低于75%的基线，高端产值仅占8%，出现长期规划与短期调度缺乏协同，落后产能过剩与高 端产品进口依赖并存的局面。化工行业的技术开发需要人工智能等数字技术带来的变革，才能支撑行业 真正实现生产运营效率的突破，以及长期和短期规划的协同优化。 中国信息通信研究院泰尔福英公司常务副总经理曾西平表示，目前石化行业已经基本具备了较为完善的 数字化转型基础设施，想要将数字化、智能化基因融入行业建设和发展，下一步石化行业转型升级的焦 点与重点要放在数字化普及与数据基础服务上。例如，将标识解析体系逐步升级为石化行业数字化应用 于数据服务的链接基础设施，打造数字化转型升级的"石化模式"，以"连接+可信"支持石化行业全流程 服务、全场景赋能，助力石化行业数据运营、管理、可信流通。 中化新网讯"'十四五'以前，智能化是我们行业规划里面的'配角'之一。希望在行业的'十五五'规划里， 它能够成为规划的主角之一，成为行业建设和发展的主要基因。" ...