Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Short - term, after a rapid price drop, the spot and futures are stabilizing near integer levels. The overall supply of asphalt has increased due to the resumption of production at some refineries this week. Demand has improved as prices declined, mainly consuming social inventory, with no significant end - of - peak - season performance. The inventory structure has improved, with a slight increase in refinery inventory and a decline in social inventory. The cost of crude oil has been fluctuating weakly recently, and the spot basis has been weakening. In the long - term, demand in the north will end as the temperature drops, while in the south, post - rainfall catch - up demand may boost consumption. The peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Short - term, attention should be paid to winter storage, and the adjustment of refinery prices may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Due to geopolitical disturbances in crude oil, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Asphalt Price and Risk Management Price Information - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.33% [2]. - On November 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3240 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [2][6][9]. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, for a long spot position: - Short 25% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Sell 20% of call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position: - Buy 50% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. - Sell 20% of put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Group 5: Other Information - There are various seasonal charts including asphalt 12 - contract basis seasonality in different regions (Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast), asphalt futures month - spread seasonality (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12), domestic asphalt refinery inventory rate seasonality, domestic asphalt social inventory rate seasonality, and asphalt warehouse and refinery warehouse receipt quantity seasonality [10][11][13][15][17][18][20][22][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, PX and PTA are in range - bound oscillations, and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term adjustment mindset. In the long - term, PX and PTA are relatively strong, while ethylene glycol is under pressure. For methanol, it may continue to oscillate downward in the short - term and has the potential to rebound in the long - term if signals are positive. Plastic may continue to oscillate in a low - level range in the short - term and show a weak trend in the long - term [30][57][59] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil News - The Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes show that most officials oppose further rate cuts in December. The non - release of the October non - farm payroll report weakens the basis for rate cuts, pushing the US dollar index up and pressuring crude oil prices. The 9 - month non - farm payroll data shows a strong job market, increasing internal differences in the Fed. The US is approaching a "major breakthrough" in a framework agreement to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. India's Reliance Industries stops importing Russian crude. US crude production rises, and the Trump administration plans to expand offshore oil and gas exploration. US crude inventories decline, while gasoline and distillate inventories increase [5][6] Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil futures price drops slightly by 0.20%, while PX, TA, and PF futures prices decline slightly, and EG and PR futures prices fall more significantly. Spot prices of PX, PTA, and polyester staple fiber increase slightly, while ethylene glycol and polyester bottle chip prices decline [8] Supply and Demand Analysis - **PX**: Domestic supply decreases slightly this week, and Asian supply also drops. Next week, supply is expected to be stable, and processing fees are supported at the bottom [11] - **PTA**: Supply decreases this week due to more device overhauls. Next week, supply will still decrease [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply decreases slightly this week. New device launches and existing device overhauls co - exist, and the supply reduction is limited [16] - **Polyester End**: The weekly average operating rate increases slightly by 0.07 percentage points [17] - **Terminal**: Orders remain sluggish, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms continues to decline [27] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: PX and PTA are in range - bound oscillations, and ethylene glycol is adjusted. Long - term: PX and PTA are relatively strong, and ethylene glycol is under pressure. Key points to watch include the Russia - Ukraine situation, macro - market sentiment, and device operation [29][30] Methanol and Plastic Price Trends - Methanol and plastic futures and spot prices mostly decline. Methanol MA2601 futures price drops by 2.48%, and L2601 plastic futures price falls by 4.02% [32] Methanol - **Supply**: As of November 20, the operating rate is 88.77%, up 1.82 percentage points, and production is 201.42 tons, up 2.09%. Next week, more devices are expected to resume [39] - **Demand**: MTO operating load rebounds slightly, and the overall demand warms up slightly but has limited support [42] - **Inventory**: As of November 19, port inventory is 147.93 tons, down 4.16%, and inland inventory is 35.87 tons, down 2.86%. Inventory is decreasing, but it is still at a high level [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: Methanol may continue to oscillate downward. Long - term: It may rebound if the port inventory inflection point occurs [57] Plastic - **Supply**: As of November 20, the operating rate is 82.71%, down 0.42 percentage points, and production is 67.03 tons, down 0.51%. Next week, the loss of production capacity is expected to be greater [48] - **Demand**: The downstream demand is differentiated and weak. Future demand may decline [51] - **Inventory**: As of November 19, production enterprise inventory is 50.33 tons, down 4.89%, and two - oil enterprise inventory is 42.4 tons, down 5.57%. Inventory is decreasing but is still at a high level [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: Plastic may continue to oscillate in a low - level range. Long - term: It may show a weak trend [59]

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Sinopec, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, is actively increasing its stake in the company through a planned buyback strategy, utilizing both self-owned funds and special loans [1] Group 1: Stakeholder Information - The buyer is China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation and its concerted parties, which is the controlling shareholder [2] - Prior to the buyback, the shareholder held 83.062 billion shares, representing 69.35% of the total share capital [2] Group 2: Buyback Plan Execution - The buyback plan is set to take place from April 8, 2025, to April 7, 2026 [2] - The current buyback period is from April 9, 2025, to November 21, 2025 [2] Group 3: Buyback Details - A total of 37.2 million shares have been repurchased during the current buyback period [2] - The breakdown of shares repurchased includes 34.56 million A-shares through centralized bidding and 337 million H-shares [2] - The total amount spent on the buyback includes approximately 194 million RMB for A-shares and about 1.376 billion HKD for H-shares [2] Group 4: Cumulative Buyback Situation - Cumulatively, 39 million shares have been repurchased, consisting of 52.4 million A-shares and 337 million H-shares [2] - The cumulative buyback proportion is 0.04% for A-shares and 0.28% for H-shares [2] - The total cumulative expenditure amounts to approximately 294 million RMB for A-shares and about 1.376 billion HKD for H-shares [2] Group 5: Future Arrangements - The company plans to continue the buyback as scheduled, selecting opportunities to increase its stake further [1]

中国石化晚间公告，本次增持实施期为2025年4月9日～2025年11月21日，中国石油化工集团有限公司及 其一致行动人通过上交所集中竞价增持A股3455.92万股，通过联交所系统增持H股3.37亿股，合计3.72 亿股，金额分别约人民币1.94亿元、港币13.76亿港元；累计已增持A股、H股3.9亿股，其中A股5240.27 万股，H股3.37亿股，累计金额分别约人民币2.94亿元、港币13.76亿港元。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Monthly Report on Naphtha Shipments in October 2025" [2] - Release Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Research Group: Chemical Group of Guotou Futures Research Institute [2] - Authors: Pang Chunyan (Z0011355), Wang Xueyi (F03125010) [2] Market Overview - In October, Russia's shipment volume was 7.7916 billion barrels, a 20.81% month-on-month decrease; the Middle East's shipment volume was 42.7718 billion barrels, a 0.8% month-on-month increase; the US loading volume was 3.0974 billion barrels, a 44.08% month-on-month decrease. The total shipment volume decreased by 4.15 billion barrels compared to the previous month, a 7.18% month-on-month decline [3]. - The region with the highest total arrivals among major regions was Northeast Asia, with an arrival volume of 28.2371 billion barrels. China's naphtha arrivals last month were 10.4365 billion barrels, a month-on-month increase of 2.4858 billion barrels. Imports from the Middle East accounted for the highest proportion at 47.29%, followed by the Mediterranean, North Africa, and South Asia. The supply volume from Northeast Asia and South Asia decreased last month, while imports from the Middle East, Russia, the Mediterranean, and North Africa all increased [3]. Shipment and Arrival Data | Region | August 2025 | September 2025 | October 2025 | 1 - 10 Month Cumulative | 1 - 10 Month Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Russia Shipment | 11.6092 billion barrels | 9.8393 billion barrels | 7.7916 billion barrels | 106.6778 billion barrels | -25.00% | | Middle East Shipment | 45.4791 billion barrels | 42.4327 billion barrels | 42.7718 billion barrels | 435.8288 billion barrels | -5.05% | | US Shipment | 5.6514 billion barrels | 5.5388 billion barrels | 3.0974 billion barrels | 47.8221 billion barrels | -33.00% | | Northeast Asia - China | 1.4226 billion barrels | 1.664 billion barrels | 1.1284 billion barrels | 13.2815 billion barrels | -7.00% | | Middle East - China | 5.5048 billion barrels | 3.4872 billion barrels | 4.9349 billion barrels | 45.0983 billion barrels | 17.93% | | Russia - China | 3.0558 billion barrels | 0.641 billion barrels | 1.1468 billion barrels | 12.8776 billion barrels | -37.53% | | South Asia - China | 2.4323 billion barrels | 1.594 billion barrels | 1.3265 billion barrels | 15.7723 billion barrels | 283.08% | [4]

智通财经APP讯，中国石油化工股份(00386)发布公告，该公司于2025年11月21日斥资3677.77万港元回 购825万股股份，每股回购价格为4.42-4.56港元。 ...

汽油产量：24.5 万吨 摘要：【图】2025年1-9月湖南省汽油产量统计分析 2025年9月汽油产量统计： 同比增长：-17.8% 增速较上一年同期变化：低19.3个百分点 据统计，2025年9月湖南省规模以上工业企业汽油产量与上年同期相比下降了17.8%，达24.5万吨，增速 较上一年同期低19.3个百分点，增速较同期全国低15.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业汽油产量 1324.2万吨的比重为1.9%。 详见下图： 图1：湖南省汽油产量分月（当月值）统计图 2025年1-9月汽油产量统计： 同比增长：-35.4% 增速较上一年同期变化：低42.3个百分点 据统计，2025年1－9月，湖南省规模以上工业企业汽油产量与上年同期相比下降了35.4%，达164.7万 吨，增速较上一年同期低42.3个百分点，增速较同期全国低30.1个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 汽油产量11607.9万吨的比重为1.4%。详见下图： 图2：湖南省汽油产量分月（累计值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动 ...

Core Insights - Daqing Petrochemical Company has achieved significant breakthroughs in its MTBE (Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether) business due to strong market demand and effective resource optimization strategies [1][2] Group 1: Production and Performance - In the first ten months of the year, Daqing Petrochemical's total MTBE production, chemical MTBE production, and MTBE export volumes increased by 698 tons, 1717 tons, and 33438 tons respectively, all reaching historical highs [1] - MTBE is recognized as a high-octane gasoline additive that enhances gasoline anti-knock properties and reduces carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions from vehicles, thus benefiting from the global trend towards stricter environmental standards [1] Group 2: Operational Strategies - The company has dynamically adjusted production plans, equipment loads, and sales rhythms to ensure stable production operations in response to market conditions [1] - Refining Division One has optimized key parameters such as reaction temperature and alcohol-olefin ratios to maximize MTBE production efficiency, achieving simultaneous improvements in product yield and quality [1] - Ethylene Division Two has modified the feed process to a parallel mode to alleviate the load on the first reactor, maintaining isobutylene conversion rates above 99%, which supports high production targets [1] Group 3: Market Expansion - Daqing Petrochemical is actively enhancing its supply chain collaboration by establishing strategic partnerships and dynamic coordination mechanisms with its partners [2] - The sales and transportation center monitors production and storage daily, creating advance shipping plans and closely tracking logistics to minimize delivery times [2] - The company conducts comprehensive analyses of overseas market prices and supply-demand changes, providing reliable product price forecasts to inform business decisions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China is expected to be adjusted downward due to a recent decline in crude oil prices, with a potential decrease of 55 yuan per ton anticipated by November 24 [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle, crude oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations, starting with a negative change rate of -1.24% as of November 20 [1] - The overall low-level operation of crude oil prices suggests that the retail price of refined oil may face downward pressure [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The expected price reduction, combined with weak demand, is likely to put overall pressure on the wholesale market prices for gasoline and diesel in the short term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Rebound and short [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with most products showing bearish or cautiously bearish trends due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical disturbances, and cost - related issues. Some products like PTA and natural gas show bullish or cautiously bullish trends because of improved supply - demand and seasonal demand factors respectively [1][3][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: WTI decreased by 0.42%, Brent by 0.20%, and SC by 1.77%. WTI was at $59/barrel, Brent at $63.38/barrel, and SC at 455 yuan/barrel [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: Core driver is supply surplus and inventory accumulation; short - term driver is geopolitical disturbance [8] - **Fundamentals**: Saudi's September exports reached 646 million barrels/day. OPEC predicts 2025 demand increment of 130 million barrels/day and 2026 of 138 million barrels/day. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 342 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [9] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on SC in the range of [445 - 455] [10] LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 20, PG main contract closed at 4382 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to crude oil price, with downstream开工率下降 and inventory accumulation [13] - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on PG in the range of [4350 - 4450] [14] L - **Market Performance**: L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton (+30) [16] - **Basic Logic**: Basis repair, domestic开工率 seasonal increase, import arrival concentration, and weak downstream demand [18] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on L in the range of [6800 - 6950] [18] PP - **Market Performance**: PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton (-51) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Following cost decline, high inventory, and insufficient demand [22] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on PP in the range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5) [25] - **Basic Logic**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low - valuation support [26] - **Strategy**: Industry hedging at high prices. Look for low - long opportunities. Focus on V in the range of [4400 - 4650] [26] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 was at 4754 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Low processing fees, increased device maintenance, and relatively good downstream demand. Cost - side PX is strong [28] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on TA in the range of [4670 - 4750] [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: EG01 was at 4013 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: Increased domestic coal - based device maintenance, new device production, and weakening downstream demand expectations. Inventory accumulation expected in November [31] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on EG in the range of [3790 - 3850] [32] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [33] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppressing prices, high domestic and overseas device开工率, and weak demand [35] - **Strategy**: Short positions held cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on 05 contract at low prices [3] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR01 was at 1652 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: High supply, weakening demand, and high inventory [39] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on UR in the range of [1645 - 1675] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 20, NG main contract closed at $4.753/million British thermal units, up 3.48% [43] - **Basic Logic**: Seasonal demand increase, cost - profit improvement, and supply - demand situation [44] - **Strategy**: Price is likely to rise but upside is limited. Focus on NG in the range of [4.548 - 4.901] [45] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 20, BU main contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.43% [47] - **Basic Logic**: Following crude oil price, supply - demand imbalance, and cost - profit situation [48] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on BU in the range of [3000 - 3100] [49] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16) [52] - **Basic Logic**: Supply decline difficult, weak domestic demand due to falling real - estate prices [53] - **Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the long - term. Focus on FG in the range of [1000 - 1050] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [54] - **Basic Logic**: Decreased demand support and high - production cycle [5] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term [5]