Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows an oscillating trend. After major manufacturers cut production, the supply - side pressure decreases, the southwest region's operation rate is lower than in previous years, and the consumption side increases. The subsequent focus should be on the operation status of major manufacturers and policy disturbances [2]. - Recently, polysilicon enterprises have actively raised spot quotes in response to the national anti - involution policy. Currently, there are few actual transactions, and terminal installation is expected to decline significantly. The futures market has continuously risen due to policy and capital sentiment. Future attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and price transmission [6]. Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillating trend. The main contract 2509 opened at 7980 yuan/ton and closed at 8045 yuan/ton, a change of 55 yuan/ton (0.69%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2509 main contract was 384,707 lots, and on July 8, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 51,349 lots, a change of - 352 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming and Sichuan decreased, while those in Huangpu Port, Tianjin, the Northwest, Shanghai, and Xinjiang remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% month - on - month and decreased by 1.60% year - on - year. In July, although the operation rate of some domestic monomer enterprises decreased, the overall impact was limited, and the estimated organic silicon production in July increased by 1.53% month - on - month [1]. Polysilicon - On July 7, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures maintained an oscillating pattern, opening at 35100 yuan/ton and closing at 36515 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 2.86% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 105,230 lots (77,334 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on that day was 440,264 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quoted price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 36.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 27.20 (a month - on - month change of 0.74%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.22GW (a month - on - month change of - 4.43%), the weekly polysilicon production was 24,000.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 1.69%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.90GW (a month - on - month change of - 11.46%) [3]. Silicon Wafers - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.87 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.19 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 0.99 yuan/piece. Affected by the policy orientation of the polysilicon end, the downstream silicon wafer market had a turning point, and the market trading atmosphere heated up, with stronger trading desire. However, enterprises remained cautious about the subsequent trend of the silicon wafer market [5]. Battery Cells - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.23 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. Components - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5]. Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [2]. - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - If the futures price corrects and the polysilicon price is smoothly transmitted downstream to silicon wafers and components, long positions can be laid out at low prices [6]. - Unilateral: None [8] - Inter - period: None [8] - Cross - variety: None [8] - Spot - futures: None [8] - Options: None [8] Group 5: Factors to Monitor - Resumption and new capacity commissioning in the Northwest and Southwest regions [4] - Changes in the operation rate of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [4] - Operation status of organic silicon enterprises [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the photovoltaic (PV) industry in China, highlighting the government's efforts to combat "involution" and promote healthy competition among companies [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Regulation and Competition - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to strengthen market mechanisms to eliminate inefficient production capacities and prevent "involution" in competition [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association, along with 16 leading companies, set a minimum cost price for PV modules at 0.68 yuan/W, marking a clear boundary against illegal low-cost bidding [2] - The 15th Manufacturing Enterprise Symposium reiterated the importance of legal and regulatory measures to address chaotic low-price competition in the PV sector [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - In 2024, China's newly installed PV capacity reached 277 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%, with a significant surge in distributed PV installations before May 31 [3] - By May 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of PV power generation exceeded 1 billion kW, accounting for 30% of the total installed capacity in China and nearly half of the global PV capacity [3] - A decline in new installed capacity is expected in the second half of the year as the "rush to install" phase concludes, leading to a forecasted decrease in terminal demand [3] Group 3: Price Trends in Silicon and Organic Silicon - Industrial silicon prices have shown a downward trend, with a current price of 9,000 yuan/ton, down 21.9% from the beginning of the year and 31.4% from the average price in 2024 [4] - Recent price increases in industrial silicon are attributed to production cuts by major manufacturers in Xinjiang, despite some recovery in Yunnan's production due to seasonal factors [4] - The organic silicon DMC price initially rose but has since declined, with a current average price of 10,800 yuan/ton, down 16.9% since the beginning of the year [5] - The organic silicon industry is expected to undergo a consolidation phase, with limited new capacity coming online, suggesting that further price declines may be constrained [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the organic silicon sector, driven by the explosive growth in the photovoltaic industry [1] - Companies such as Dongyue Silicon Materials and Hoshine Silicon Industry approached their daily limit up, while Silan Technology surged over 10% [1] - Other companies including Runhe Materials, Hongbai New Materials, Chenguang New Materials, and Xinyaqiang also experienced gains [1] Group 2 - The main driver of this surge is the significant increase in the futures market, with the main contract for polysilicon futures hitting the daily limit up, leading to an expansion of the industrial silicon futures main contract's increase to 5% [1]

Group 1 - The organic silicon sector has seen a rise, with Dongyue Silicon Material (300821) increasing by over 10% [1] - Other companies such as QSilicon Technology (300019), Runhe Materials (300727), Xinyaqiang (603155), Hesheng Silicon Industry (603260), and Chenguang New Materials (605399) also experienced gains [1] - Previously, the main contract for polysilicon reached its price limit [1]

Group 1 - The A-share organic silicon concept stocks experienced a short-term rise, with Dongyue Silicon Materials increasing by over 11% [1] - Other stocks such as Hoshine Silicon Industry, Silbond Technology, Yian Technology, and Runhe Materials also saw gains [1] - The main contract for polysilicon reached its daily limit, with an increase of 7%, currently priced at 38,385 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - Hubei Xingfa Group and Wanhua Chemical have established Hubei Xinghua Silicon Materials Co., marking a strategic move into the high-end organic silicon industry [1] - The joint venture is owned 51% by Xingfa and 49% by Wanhua, indicating a comprehensive integration of resources, capacity, technology, and market [1] - Xingfa's integrated industry chain from phosphate mining to chemical products generates significant by-products like chloromethane, essential for organic silicon monomer synthesis [1] Group 2 - Wanhua Chemical has developed a complete process for battery materials, including silicon-carbon anodes, which are crucial for next-generation lithium batteries [2] - High-quality organic silicon materials are vital for the performance of silicon-carbon anodes, and Xingfa's expertise in organic silicon will support Wanhua's R&D and production [2] - Wanhua's recent expansion of PDMS capacity aligns with the joint venture's goals, ensuring stable supply chains for raw materials like chloromethane and metallic silicon [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - In 2025, the price of industrial silicon showed a downward trend in the first half of the year, and the fundamentals are expected to remain weak in the second half. The supply may increase during the wet season, while the demand is overall weak, with the export market expected to decline year-on-year. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is relatively weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] - The cost of industrial silicon may further decrease, but it is necessary to focus on policy impacts. The supply capacity has increased, but the output has decreased. The demand shows a pattern of significant recovery in exports and suppressed demand due to polysilicon production cuts [10][11][12] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. In the second half, the supply is affected by policy disturbances and cost pressures, with certain uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry is facing a situation of large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand, and the price will face greater pressure without policy intervention. The price is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] - The cost of polysilicon has significantly decreased, mainly driven by the decline in raw material prices and energy cost optimization. The supply has decreased, and the pressure of overcapacity remains large. The demand is driven by the short - term increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, but the growth rate is expected to decline [19][20][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 First - Half Price Review Industrial Silicon - From January to February 2025, the industrial silicon price was relatively firm due to production cuts in the southwest and northwest regions. In March, the price declined due to increased supply pressure and weak demand. From April to May, the price accelerated its decline under the influence of the US trade war and falling raw material costs. In June, the price rebounded after hitting the bottom [6][33] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. It was stable around the Spring Festival and declined in April due to reduced downstream orders and falling raw material prices [18][34] 2025 Second - Half Price Outlook Industrial Silicon - The supply is expected to increase during the wet season, and the demand is overall weak. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] Polysilicon - The supply is affected by policy and cost, with uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry has large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. Without policy intervention, the price will face pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] Supply - Side Situation Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the overall furnace - opening rate was 27.62%. In 2024, about 650,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there were about 700,000 tons of built - but - unoperated capacity and nearly 1 million tons of planned capacity. The output from January to June 2024 decreased by 15% year - on - year, mainly due to price drops and production cuts in most regions. The northwest has become the main production area [45][46] Polysilicon - In 2024, 850,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there are still about 470,000 tons of capacity under construction or built but unoperated. The production in the first half of 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year, and the average operating rate of enterprises dropped to a historical low. The annual output is expected to decrease to about 1.2 million tons [20][102][109] Cost and Profit Industrial Silicon - In the first half of 2025, the raw material cost of industrial silicon decreased, and the full cost and cash cost also decreased. The electricity price in some areas decreased, and the prices of silicon coal, charcoal, electrodes, and silica also declined. Without policy intervention, the cost may further decrease, but the decline space is limited [55][56] Polysilicon - In 2025, the production cost of polysilicon decreased significantly, mainly due to falling raw material prices and optimized energy costs. The current tax - free cash cost of granular silicon can be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of rod - shaped silicon is between 30,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton [19] Export - End - From January to May 2025, China's metal silicon exports totaled 272,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%. The annual export volume is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% year - on - year compared to 2024, mainly affected by the global economic outlook and overseas tariff policies [69] Consumption - End - In the first half of 2025, the production of polysilicon decreased significantly year - on - year, organic silicon increased slightly, and the demand for aluminum alloy increased steadily. The export volume is expected to decline due to the slowdown of overseas economies [72] Organic Silicon - As of June, the total production capacity of Chinese organic silicon monomers reached 6.88 million tons/year. The production from January to June increased by about 1% year - on - year. The consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of the traditional construction industry decreasing and that of new energy, electronics, and other fields increasing. The overall consumption growth may slow down in the second half of the year, and the annual growth rate is expected to be about 5%. The price decreased after a slight rebound in the first quarter, and the industry operating rate was between 60% and 70% [72][73] Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the overall operation of the aluminum alloy industry remained stable, and the consumption of industrial silicon increased. From January to June, the production of primary aluminum alloy increased by 12.4% year - on - year, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1% year - on - year. The downstream consumption of aluminum alloy increased, and the primary industrial silicon consumption in 2025 is expected to be 650,000 tons [92][95] Polysilicon (Continued) Supply - Side - In early 2025, the domestic polysilicon capacity remained high, but the production decreased significantly in the first quarter due to low prices and industry self - discipline agreements. The production increased slightly in the second quarter, but the overall operating rate remained low [102] Consumption - Side - In the first half of 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation rush significantly drove the demand for polysilicon, but the demand entered a vacuum period after June. The overseas market demand was weak. The growth rate of new installations in 2025 is expected to decline, with domestic new installations expected to be 310GW and global new installations about 610GW [112][114] Import and Export - From January to April, the export of photovoltaic modules decreased by 6% year - on - year. Only the African market showed significant growth, while the European, American, and Middle - Eastern markets declined [115] Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the inventory of the metal silicon industry was 970,000 tons. The inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, is expected to increase slightly in the wet season of the second half, and may decrease slightly in the fourth quarter. The annual inventory is expected to increase slightly, and the industry inventory pressure remains high [171] Polysilicon - The upstream inventory of polysilicon is large, and the total industry inventory is expected to be higher than 400,000 tons. The total inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, and if the industry self - discipline production cuts are effective, a slight reduction in inventory is expected throughout the year [171]

Group 1 - Brother Technology expects a net profit of 60 million to 75 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 325% to 431.25% [1] - Zhonggang Luonai's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by 0.5%, amounting to no more than 562,500 shares [1] - Hesheng Silicon Industry's controlling shareholder intends to exchange up to 1% of its shares for ETF units, totaling no more than 11,822,100 shares [1][2] Group 2 - Suotong Development's actual controller plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.21%, equating to no more than 1,098,720 shares [2] - Funeng Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1%, totaling up to 12,221,000 shares [2][3] - Yuhua Development expects a net profit of 175 million to 225 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 632% to 784% [4][5] Group 3 - Dingsheng Co. plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1.71%, equating to up to 726,430 shares [5] - Renle's stock has been terminated from listing, officially delisted on July 4, 2025 [6] - Weitang Industrial's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1.95%, totaling up to 340,000 shares [7] Group 4 - Yingfeng Environment's convertible bond may trigger a downward adjustment of the conversion price due to stock prices falling below 85% of the conversion price [8] - Jingye Da's actual controller plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3%, equating to up to 694,150 shares [10] - Yongtai Technology and its subsidiary are suing for 57.5193 million yuan in damages [11] Group 5 - *ST Meigu's subsidiary has been applied for bankruptcy liquidation [12] - Daoshi Technology plans to invest up to 165 million USD in a copper wet smelting project in the Democratic Republic of Congo [13] - Xinbo Co.'s actual controller plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1.54%, totaling up to 372,440 shares [14] Group 6 - Yunnan Energy Investment has obtained the development rights for a photovoltaic power generation project with a capacity of 20 MW [15] - Qinglong Pipe Industry's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3%, equating to up to 990,970 shares [15] - Yangjie Technology has terminated the share issuance and cash acquisition of Beite Electronics, opting for cash acquisition instead [16] Group 7 - Taijia Co.'s controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3%, totaling up to 755,210 shares [17] - Songyang Resources has terminated the planning of a control change and will resume trading on July 4, 2025 [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed a strong upward trend on July 3, 2025, driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment. In the short - term, both may continue the strong trend, but the price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations. [1] - For industrial silicon, the supply may decrease after offsetting increases and decreases, and the demand from polysilicon enterprises may increase, while the demand from the organic silicon sector is weak. [1] - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, but the market demand is slowing down. The price increase is mainly driven by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment. [1] Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.83% to 8,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.70% to 8,950 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 5.73% to 8,210 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Northern large factories have production reduction plans, and the southwest production area is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operations. After offsetting, the supply may decrease. [1] - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, and some silicon material factories plan to resume production in July, bringing some demand increments. The organic silicon sector has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. [1] Investment Strategy - In the short - term, the price may continue the strong trend, but the upward pressure will increase after the rebound. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and continuously monitor the actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises. [1] Polysilicon Price Changes - N - type dense material increased by 2.99% to 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material increased by 3.17% to 32.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material increased by 3.33% to 31.0 yuan/kg, polysilicon cauliflower material increased by 3.51% to 29.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 7.19% to 35,050 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, and some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, remaining below 100,000 tons. [1] - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. The market demand is slowing down, and the transactions are weak. [1] Investment Strategy - In the short - term, driven by the long - position sentiment, the price may continue the strong trend, but the price fluctuations may intensify due to limited fundamental improvement. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and continuously monitor the actual operations of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and the implementation of supply - side reform. [1] Other Information - On July 1, 2025, the Suzhou Ecological Environment Bureau planned to make a decision on the environmental impact assessment of Suzhou Qizhu New Materials Co., Ltd.'s project. Suzhou Qitian New Materials Co., Ltd. has four holding subsidiaries and three production bases, with a lithium - battery electrolyte additive production capacity of 36,900 tons/year and a functional organic silicon material production capacity of 26,700 tons/year. [1] - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market, governing low - price and disorderly competition, and guiding enterprises to improve product quality and eliminate backward production capacity. [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.09% to 3454.79 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.61% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.13% [1][2] - Trading volume shrank to 1.38 trillion yuan, a decrease of 89.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating a lack of activity from domestic investors [1] Sector Performance - Steel sector surged due to rumors of production cuts in Tangshan, with a 30% reduction in sintering machine operations from July 4 to July 15, leading to a rally in coal and cement stocks as well [3] - The photovoltaic sector saw significant gains, with companies like Dongliang Energy and Tongwei Co. hitting the daily limit, driven by rising upstream silicon material prices and surging overseas demand [4] - Conversely, the semiconductor and military electronics sectors faced declines, with AI hardware temporarily losing favor among investors as they await mid-year performance reports [4] Policy Impact - The concept of "anti-involution" is gaining traction, with calls to avoid price wars and instead focus on production cuts and price increases to ensure profitability [5] - The organic silicon sector is highlighted as a potential wealth generator, with leading manufacturers raising prices by 500-600 yuan per ton, while smaller firms struggle to survive [5] - Demand for organic silicon is driven by the explosive growth in new energy vehicles and photovoltaic applications, with exports increasing by 34.3% [5] Notable Stocks - Dongyue Silicon Material experienced a 20% limit-up, benefiting from price increases and a dual growth attribute in the cyclical market [6] Future Outlook - Investors are advised to monitor the spread of "anti-involution" in sectors like glass and chemicals, as well as mid-year performance forecasts to avoid potential pitfalls [7] - In the Hong Kong market, the upcoming tariff deadline on July 9 is critical, with technology stocks potentially rebounding, making the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF a candidate for bottom-fishing [7]