Core Insights - The coke sector experienced a 2.49% increase on October 28, with Antai Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3988.22, down 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13430.1, down 0.44% [1] Sector Performance - Antai Group saw a closing price of 3.23, with a significant increase of 9.86% and a trading volume of 2.29 million shares, amounting to 687 million yuan [1] - Baotailong closed at 3.98, up 6.13%, with a trading volume of 2.90 million shares and a transaction value of 1.12 billion yuan [1] - Shaanxi Heimei closed at 4.52, increasing by 5.85%, with a trading volume of 1.63 million shares and a transaction value of 705 million yuan [1] - Yunnan Coal Energy closed at 4.75, up 2.15%, with a trading volume of 979,000 shares and a transaction value of 450 million yuan [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal closed at 4.35, increasing by 1.40%, with a trading volume of 864,200 shares and a transaction value of 368 million yuan [1] - Yunwei Co. closed at 3.69, with a slight increase of 0.27%, trading 261,100 shares for a total of 95.94 million yuan [1] - Meijin Energy remained unchanged at 4.89, with a trading volume of 711,700 shares and a transaction value of 347 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The coke sector saw a net inflow of 310 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 226 million yuan [1] - Antai Group had a net inflow of 130 million yuan from institutional investors, but retail investors saw a net outflow of 86.89 million yuan [2] - Baotailong experienced a net inflow of 1.15 billion yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors facing a net outflow of 93.38 million yuan [2] - Shaanxi Heimei had a net inflow of 41.53 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 29.26 million yuan [2] - Shanxi Coking Coal recorded a net inflow of 13.32 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 17.93 million yuan [2] - Yunnan Coal Energy had a net inflow of 13.28 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors faced a net outflow of 285,930 yuan [2]

Group 1 - Antai Group's stock increased by 5.1%, reaching 3.09 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 474 million CNY and a turnover rate of 16.10%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 3.111 billion CNY [1] - Antai Group, established on July 29, 1993, and listed on February 12, 2003, is primarily engaged in the production and sale of coke and its by-products, as well as section steel products. The revenue composition is as follows: section steel 73.03%, coke processing and chemical products 18.65%, electricity processing 2.92%, scrap steel 2.05%, and others 1.68% [1] Group 2 - Noan Fund's Noan Multi-Strategy Mixed A (320016) entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Antai Group in the second quarter, holding 4.8186 million shares, which accounts for 0.48% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 722,800 CNY [2] - Noan Multi-Strategy Mixed A (320016) was established on August 9, 2011, with a latest scale of 1.855 billion CNY. Year-to-date return is 68.91%, ranking 425 out of 8,155 in its category; the one-year return is 79.81%, ranking 235 out of 8,029; and the return since inception is 226% [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of Noan Multi-Strategy Mixed A are Kong Xianzheng and Wang Haichang. As of the report, Kong Xianzheng has a tenure of 4 years and 337 days, managing a total fund size of 5.608 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 84.18% and the worst being -16.74% [3] - Wang Haichang has a tenure of 3 years and 99 days, managing a total fund size of 3.427 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 71.22% and the worst being -18.8% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report maintains an optimistic view of the future of the black sector. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually easing macro - environment, but the real demand for steel is still weak in the short term. For specific varieties, each has different supply - demand situations and price trends, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as Sino - US negotiations and overseas macro - environment changes [1][4][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (1.772%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 128,819 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.953001 million lots, a decrease of 97,544 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3140 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3299 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (1.507%). The registered warehouse receipts were 104,667 tons, a decrease of 2398 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.48273 million lots, a decrease of 18,766 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive, and the prices of finished steel products fluctuated strongly. Sino - US relations were moderately eased, and the results of the trade negotiations needed to be focused on. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, the demand improved marginally, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability of steel mills declined significantly, and the supply - side pressure was reduced. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remained unchanged, but the real demand was still weak in the short term [1]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 786.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.01% (+15.50). The position changed by - 6796 lots to 558,800 lots. The weighted position was 944,200 lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.62% [3]. Strategy View - The market sentiment improved, and the iron ore futures rebounded at the technical support level. The overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase, and the recent arrival volume was at a low level. The daily average pig iron output dropped below 2.4 million tons. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The macro - environment had a certain positive impact, and the iron ore price fluctuated [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.52% to close at 5802 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 108 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) rose 0.40% to close at 5564 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 86 yuan/ton over the futures. The prices of both were in the shock range and needed to pay attention to the support level and the direction selection near the trend line [7]. Strategy View - The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee had positive statements, but there was no content exceeding market expectations. It was necessary to pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the APEC meeting. The fundamentals of the black sector were worrying due to high supply and low demand, and there was a risk of "negative feedback" in steel mills. The report was still not pessimistic about the black sector, and it was more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were likely to follow the black sector's trend [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The weighted position increased by 7556 lots to 435,130 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis was 335 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 115 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54,500 yuan/ton, up 4.20% (+2195). The weighted position increased by 19,404 lots to 251,023 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were flat, and the basis was - 1520 yuan/ton [11][14]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon was slightly up. The supply pressure continued, and the demand support weakened. The cost provided some support, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term. The polysilicon futures rose due to downstream buying and news rumors. The supply pressure might be alleviated marginally, and the supply - demand pattern might improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude was limited. It was necessary to pay attention to the implementation of news and control risks [12][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1095 yuan/ton, up 0.27% (+3). The prices in North China and Central China decreased. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million cases, up 2.3374 million cases (3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 36,011 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 73,350 lots. The main contract of soda ash closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+17). The price in Shahe increased. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (3.64%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing and the light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders increased 10,679 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 11,314 lots [17][19]. Strategy View - The glass market mainly traded low - price goods, and the demand recovery was slow. The raw material soda ash price provided support, and the glass price was expected to fluctuate widely. The soda ash supply was stable, the cost pressure increased, and the downstream demand was mainly low - price rigid demand. The soda ash price was expected to consolidate narrowly in the short term, and it was necessary to pay attention to the start - up of equipment and downstream procurement [18][20].

Report Title - "Stock, Bond, and Commodity Markets Mostly Rise, with a Large Decline in the European Container Shipping Route - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20251028" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, assets should be evenly allocated. After the Fed cuts interest rates in the October meeting, progresses in China - US tariff talks, and the release of specific details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, both domestic and overseas equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals are expected to benefit. Black commodities with low valuations due to domestic policy improvements also have some rebound opportunities, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance 1.1 Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 futures closed at 4684.4, with a daily increase of 1.07%, a weekly increase of 1.07%, a monthly increase of 1.44%, a quarterly increase of 1.44%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.47%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [2] 1.2 Bond Futures - Bond futures generally rose. For example, the 30 - year bond futures had a daily increase of 0.34%, a weekly increase of 0.34%, a monthly increase of 1.32%, a quarterly increase of 1.32%, but a year - to - date decrease of 2.89% [2] 1.3 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index remained unchanged on the day, with a monthly increase of 1.14% and a year - to - date decrease of 8.79%. The euro - US dollar exchange rate and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate also had different trends [2] 1.4 Interest Rates - Interest rates showed different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield had a daily increase of 1 bp, a monthly decrease of 0.18 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 53 bp [2] 1.5 Industry Indexes - Industries such as construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals showed varying degrees of increase, while industries such as food and beverage, and electronics showed varying degrees of decline [3] 1.6 Commodities - Commodities had different performance. For example, COMEX gold had a daily decrease of 0.39%, a monthly increase of 6.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 56.36%. The European container shipping route had a daily decrease of 3.06% and a quarterly decrease of 21.36% [3][4] 2. Macro Analysis 2.1 Overseas Macro - The US government shutdown continued this week. The expectation of China - US tariffs eased, and the CPI in September was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing. There are four reasons: the lower - than - expected CPI in September, the continuous government shutdown, the increasing economic downward pressure after the government shutdown, and the easing expectation of China - US tariffs [6] 2.2 Domestic Macro - The communique of the 20th Fourth Plenary Session was released this week, sending positive signals. The economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience. Consumption and investment growth continued to slow down, but the strengthening of policy expectations is expected to boost physical work volume in the fourth quarter [6] 3. Asset Views - In the short - term, maintain a balanced asset allocation. After the Fed cuts interest rates in the October meeting, progresses in China - US tariff talks, and the release of specific details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals are expected to benefit. Black commodities with low valuations due to domestic policy improvements also have some rebound opportunities, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [6] 4. Market Outlook for Each Sector 4.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and rise due to technology - related event catalysts. Stock index options and bond futures are expected to fluctuate [7] 4.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate as geopolitical and trade tensions ease [7] 4.3 Shipping Sector - The European container shipping route is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades and there is a lack of upward momentum [7] 4.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to fluctuate due to various factors such as policy disturbances, inventory pressures, and supply - demand relationships [7] 4.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate as they await the clarification of macro - policies [7] 4.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand imbalances, and cost changes [9] 4.7 Agricultural Sector - Agricultural products are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply - demand changes [9]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Steel prices have strengthened, with a rebound of 100 yuan per ton from the low. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has recovered well this week, approaching last year's level, but the off - balance - sheet demand is lower year - on - year. Plate inventories are high, and steel mill profits are falling, which will suppress production. The 1 - month contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to recover at previous highs. Hold long positions and pay attention to the pressure at previous highs (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils). The coking coal long - hot - rolled coil short arbitrage has widened, and the arbitrage position can be held [1]. Summaries by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3200 to 3210 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil rose from 3265 to 3312 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices have changed, with steel billet rising by 30 to 2960 yuan. Profits of various steel products in different regions have declined. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils dropped from - 5 to - 12 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a - 0.4% decline. The output of the five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a 1.0% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a - 1.7% decline. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 3.2 to 12.3, a 35.5% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a 2.0% increase [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, iron ore futures stabilized and rebounded. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The demand side has weakening demand for restocking due to falling steel mill profits and decreasing pig iron output. The downstream demand for steel is gradually recovering but lower than expected. After the previous callback, the negative factors have been fully digested. Unilaterally, go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices, with a reference range of 770 - 830. Recommend the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. Summaries by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of the 01 - contract for different varieties decreased slightly. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.5 to 23.0, a 12.2% increase [3]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port increased. For example, the price of PB powder rose from 778 to 792 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a - 19.5% decline, and the global shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a 1.6% increase [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a - 0.4% decline, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly outputs also decreased [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 54.7 to 14423.59, a 0.4% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a 1.1% increase [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, coke and coking coal futures showed an upward trend. For coke, the second - round price increase proposed by mainstream coke enterprises has been implemented, and there is still room for further increase. The supply of coking coal has decreased, and the price has risen, resulting in increased costs for coke production and reduced coke production. Steel mill demand is weak, and inventories are in a state of mixed changes. For coking coal, the spot price is rising, supply is tight due to production cuts, and there is restocking demand after de - stocking. Speculatively, go long on the 2601 contract of coke in the range of 1650 - 1850 and long coking coal short coke for arbitrage. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract in the range of 1150 - 1350 and long coking coal short coke for arbitrage [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke in different regions and contracts increased. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) rose from 1561 to 1612 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coke rose from 1758 to 1780 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal in different forms and contracts also increased. For example, the price of Mongolia 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) rose from 1318 to 1329 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coking coal rose from 1249 to 1264 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Coke production decreased, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants dropping from 65.3 to 64.6 tons. Coking coal production also decreased, with the raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines dropping from 854 to 848 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased from 241.0 to 239.9 tons, indicating weakening demand for coke [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Coke inventory remained stable overall, with coking plants and steel mills de - stocking and ports increasing inventory. Coking coal inventory showed mixed changes, with coal mines and steel mills de - stocking and coking plants and ports increasing inventory [5].

Core Insights - The coke sector experienced a 0.43% increase on October 27, with Shaanxi Black Cat leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Sector Performance - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015) closed at 4.27, up 3.64% with a trading volume of 1.4962 million shares and a turnover of 631 million yuan [1] - Antai Group (600408) closed at 2.94, up 2.44% with a trading volume of 1.9995 million shares and a turnover of 581 million yuan [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal (600740) closed at 4.29, up 0.94% with a trading volume of 892,600 shares and a turnover of 381 million yuan [1] - Baotailong (601011) closed at 3.75, up 0.54% with a trading volume of 2.26 million shares and a turnover of 843 million yuan [1] - Yunnan Coal Energy (600792) closed at 4.65, up 0.43% with a trading volume of 1.0496 million shares and a turnover of 484 million yuan [1] - Meijin Energy (000723) closed at 4.89, down 1.01% with a trading volume of 948,200 shares and a turnover of 464 million yuan [1] - Yunwei Co. (600725) closed at 3.68, down 1.34% with a trading volume of 327,100 shares and a turnover of 121 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The coke sector saw a net inflow of 134 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 93.52 million yuan [1] - Main fund inflows for Shaanxi Black Cat amounted to 50.44 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 21.87 million yuan [2] - Antai Group had a main fund inflow of 29.62 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 20.80 million yuan [2] - Baotailong recorded a main fund inflow of 20.23 million yuan, with retail funds seeing a net outflow of 0.49 million yuan [2] - Meijin Energy had a main fund inflow of 12.63 million yuan, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 33.43 million yuan [2] - Yunnan Coal Energy saw a main fund inflow of 10.28 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 0.12 million yuan [2] - Shanxi Coking Coal recorded a main fund inflow of 8.98 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 1.75 million yuan [2] - Yunwei Co. had a main fund inflow of 2.02 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net inflow of 0.62 million yuan [2]

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the steel industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The current week saw a good recovery in the apparent demand for the five major steel products, approaching last year's levels, but the off - balance sheet demand for steel is lower year - on - year. The inventory of plates is high, and there are expectations of blast furnace production cuts in Tangshan. If the production cuts can relieve the inventory pressure of plates, steel prices are expected to stabilize. The carbon element cost at the cost end is supportive, and iron ore is expected to have a slight inventory build - up, which may lead to an expansion of the ratio of steel to ore. Steel prices have fallen significantly previously, and steel mill profits have declined. Before the plate inventory is relieved, steel mill profits will continue to decline, suppressing production release. The January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to stabilize around 3,000 and 3,200 yuan respectively and then enter a sideways consolidation trend. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions, continue to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and gradually exit the short position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Steel mill profits will continue to converge before the steel production and inventory are cleared [2]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. The basis and spreads of different contracts also showed certain changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price decreased by 25 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of steel products in different regions and processes showed different trends. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 28 yuan/ton [2]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The output of the five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The rebar output increased by 5.9 to 207.1 tons, an increase of 2.9% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9 tons, a decrease of 1.7%. The rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.3 to 414.9 tons, a decrease of 1.0% [2]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.4 to 9.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7 tons, an increase of 2.0%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.3 to 226.0 tons, an increase of 2.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 11.2 to 326.7 tons, an increase of 3.5% [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the iron ore industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, iron ore futures bottomed out and stabilized. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to first decrease and then increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin declined slightly, pig iron production decreased from a high level, and the steel mills' demand for restocking weakened. The steel production decreased slightly, the apparent demand increased, the inventory decreased, and the post - holiday demand gradually recovered but was lower than expected. The port inventory increased, the port handling volume decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory increased, increasing the inventory pressure. Looking forward, due to the weak operation of steel prices, the weak demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. The iron ore market is changing from balanced and tight to loose, and the weak performance of finished products will drag down raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions, with the reference range of 750 - 800, and the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly declined. The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts decreased by 5.5 to 824.9 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5 [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 526.4 to 2519.4 tons, a decrease of 17.3%. The global weekly shipment volume increased by 126.0 to 3333.5 tons, an increase of 3.9%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 tons, an increase of 10.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The weekly average daily port handling volume of 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7 tons, a decrease of 7.1%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 5.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 387.8 to 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 5.0% [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly port inventory increased by 54.7 to 14423.59 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The weekly imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the coke and coking coal industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, coke futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot market's rhythm was inconsistent with the futures market. The mainstream coke enterprises' second - round price increase was implemented, and there is still a possibility of further price increases. The coking coal price rebounded from the bottom, providing cost support, but the coking enterprises' losses led to a decline in production. The steel mill's pig iron output decreased from a high level, steel prices were weak, and downstream demand was not strong during the peak season. The coking plant and steel mill inventories decreased, while the port inventory increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly. Recently, the production reduction in the Mongolian coal pithead and the increase in Shanxi's auction prices have led to concerns about supply, causing coal and coke to rebound from the bottom. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the reference range of 1650 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market fluctuations [8]. Last week, coking coal futures rose strongly, and the spot auction prices in Shanxi were strong. The Mongolian coal quotation continued to rise. After a slight decline in the domestic coking coal market after the holiday, it began to rebound, and downstream procurement and restocking increased. On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia reduced production. The imported Mongolian coal's customs clearance volume decreased, and the Mongolian coal quotation was strong. The pig iron output continued to decline, the coking plant's operation rate continued to decline, and there was a restocking demand after significant inventory reduction after the holiday. The coal mine, coal washery, and steel mill inventories decreased, while the coking plant, port, and port - side inventories increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short - term, with the reference range of 1150 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed. For example, the price of the coke 01 contract decreased by 11 to 1758 yuan/ton, and the price of the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 10 to 1249 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The weekly raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 6.9 to 848.0 tons, a decrease of 0.8%, and the weekly clean coal output decreased by 4.7 to 433.5 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0% [8]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory remained unchanged at 891.9 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.4 to 58.6 tons, an increase of 2.4%, the steel mill's coke inventory decreased by 6.3 to 633.2 tons, a decrease of 1.0%, and the port inventory increased by 4.9 to 200.1 tons, an increase of 2.5% [8]. The Fenwei coal mine's clean coal inventory decreased by 9.9 to 90.3 tons, a decrease of 9.9%. The all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory increased by 32.3 to 1029.7 tons, an increase of 3.2%, the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased by 5.4 to 783.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%, and the port inventory increased by 2.9 to 275.7 tons, an increase of 1.1% [8].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Coking's stock price has shown a modest increase this year, with a notable rise in recent trading days, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On October 27, Shanxi Coking's stock rose by 2.35%, reaching 4.35 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 224 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.05%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 11.145 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Shanxi Coking's stock price has increased by 8.48%, with a 0.23% rise over the last five trading days, 7.67% over the last 20 days, and 3.82% over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent appearance on October 23, where it recorded a net purchase of 63.5265 million CNY [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shanxi Coking reported an operating revenue of 3.226 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 18.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -77.6111 million CNY, representing a year-on-year decline of 142.18% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Shanxi Coking has distributed a total of 2.167 billion CNY in dividends, with 692 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shanxi Coking was 78,400, a decrease of 2.14% from the previous period, with an average of 32,693 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 2.18% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Guotai Zhongxin Coal ETF holds 19.8786 million shares, an increase of 4.0954 million shares compared to the previous period, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 12.4704 million shares, a decrease of 1.3030 million shares [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Short - term coal - coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations and remains at a relatively high level overall, with temporary low inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of imported coal variables on the market, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Market Performance - Last week, coal - coke futures prices fluctuated strongly with an upward trend and large volatility. The spot market was generally stable, and the scope of the second round of coking price increases expanded but had not been finalized [3]. Supply Side - Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia stopped production due to safety and governance issues last week, leading to a decline in coal production. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3]. Demand Side - Steel mills' profits further shrank, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output slightly decreased to 239.9 million tons. As demand nears the end of the year, the pressure on finished products increases, and hot metal output tends to decline [3]. Import Data - China's coking coal imports have been increasing monthly. In September, imports were 10.9237 million tons, a 7.49% month - on - month increase and a 5.41% year - on - year increase. From January to September, cumulative imports were 83.5312 million tons, a 6.45% year - on - year decrease with a narrowing decline. In September, Mongolian coal imports were 6.0005 million tons, a 0.24% month - on - month decrease but a 45.48% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 41.747 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease with a significantly narrowing decline [4].