2025第五届起点两轮车换电大会 及轻型动力电池技术高峰论坛 聚焦新技术 拓展新市场 三、大会议程 | | 2025第五届起点两轮车换电大会及轻型动力电池技术高峰论坛 | | --- | --- | | 7月10日 | 主要行程及议题 | | 09:00-18:30 | 会场签到 | | 13:30-16:00 | 无锡头部电动两轮车整车企业参观考察 | | | （雅迪、新日、台铃、小刀） | | 16:30-18:30 | 中国新能源企业家俱乐部理事会暨两轮车锂电 CEO闭门会 | | 18:30-21:30 | 闭门会交流晚宴（定向邀请） | | 7月11日 | 主要议题及议程 | | | 论坛开幕式 | | 09:00-09：15 | 无锡锡山区人民政府领导致辞及宣传片播放 | | 09:15-09：20 | 起点研究 创始人 李振强 致辞 | | 09:20-09：30 | 2025第五届中国两轮车换电及电池鲁班奖颁奖典礼 | | 09:30-12:00 | 专场论坛 ①：电动两轮车及换电技术专场论坛 | | 聚焦议题 | ü 起点研究院 -《2025中国两轮车换电及电池TOP排行榜及行 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Luyuan Group Holdings (2451.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.41, indicating a potential upside of 61.2% from the current price of HKD 7.99 [2][4]. Core Insights - Luyuan Group is a pioneer in the electric two-wheeler industry, focusing on technological innovation and industry transformation since its establishment in 1997. The company has introduced significant technologies such as liquid-cooled motors and digital battery systems, enhancing product durability and range [4][7]. - The transition to new national standards is expected to stimulate demand for electric two-wheelers, with a projected recovery in sales starting in 2025 due to government incentives for trade-ins [4][25]. - The company is strategically repositioning itself as a leader in "all-scenario light mobility solutions," aiming to transform from a traditional manufacturer to a mobility service provider, with a focus on high-end markets and an integrated service ecosystem [4][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Luyuan Group are as follows: - 2024: CNY 50.72 billion (YoY -0.22%) - 2025: CNY 60.2 billion (YoY +18.69%) - 2026: CNY 73.2 billion (YoY +21.59%) - 2027: CNY 88.5 billion (YoY +20.90%) - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: CNY 1.16 billion (YoY -20.29%) - 2025: CNY 1.75 billion (YoY +50.86%) - 2026: CNY 3.23 billion (YoY +84.57%) - 2027: CNY 4.58 billion (YoY +41.80%) - The report indicates a significant improvement in earnings per share (EPS) from CNY 0.29 in 2024 to CNY 1.07 in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 25.72 to 6.68 over the same period [3][4][19]. Industry Overview - The electric two-wheeler market in China is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.32% from 2019 to 2024, despite a decline in 2024 due to weak consumer demand and industry adjustments [4][25]. - The market is characterized by a shift from price competition to quality competition, with leading brands focusing on technological advancements and differentiated offerings to enhance product value [31][34]. - The introduction of new national standards in 2024 is expected to further elevate product quality and safety, driving the industry towards higher standards and compliance [40][41]. Technological Advancements - Luyuan Group has developed core technologies such as liquid-cooled motors and digital battery systems, which significantly improve product performance and longevity, addressing key industry challenges [47][48]. - The company is also enhancing its smart technology offerings, integrating features like real-time monitoring and AI-driven maintenance to improve user experience and safety [51][52]. Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the LYVA brand marks Luyuan's entry into the high-end market, with a focus on premium electric two-wheelers designed for various high-end scenarios [61]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new manufacturing bases, aiming to meet future demand and enhance market share [53]. Sales and Distribution - Luyuan has established a comprehensive sales network with over 12,800 retail stores across China, supported by a robust online sales strategy that integrates e-commerce with traditional retail [54][57].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Luyuan Group Holdings (2451.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.41, indicating a potential upside of 61.2% from the current price of HKD 7.99 [2][4]. Core Insights - Luyuan Group is a pioneer in the electric two-wheeler industry, leveraging technological innovation to lead market development. The company has introduced significant advancements such as liquid-cooled motors and digital battery technology, enhancing product durability and range [4][7]. - The transition to new national standards is expected to stimulate demand for electric two-wheelers, with a projected recovery in sales starting in 2025 due to government incentives for trade-ins [4][25]. - The company's strategic shift towards high-end markets and the establishment of a comprehensive mobility ecosystem is anticipated to drive growth and improve profitability [4][61]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Luyuan Group are as follows: - 2024: CNY 50.72 billion (YoY -0.22%) - 2025: CNY 60.2 billion (YoY +18.69%) - 2026: CNY 73.2 billion (YoY +21.59%) - 2027: CNY 88.5 billion (YoY +20.90%) [3][4] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: CNY 1.16 billion (YoY -20.29%) - 2025: CNY 1.75 billion (YoY +50.86%) - 2026: CNY 3.23 billion (YoY +84.57%) - 2027: CNY 4.58 billion (YoY +41.80%) [3][4]. Industry Overview - The electric two-wheeler market in China is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.32% from 2019 to 2024, despite a decline in 2024 due to weak consumer demand and industry adjustments [4][25]. - The market is characterized by a significant shift from price competition to quality competition, with leading brands focusing on technological advancements and product differentiation [31][34]. - The introduction of new national standards in 2025 is expected to enhance product quality and safety, further driving the industry's evolution [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - Yadea's launch of the Crown S series emphasizes long-range capabilities and a three-year battery durability commitment, aiming to address diverse user needs in various riding scenarios [1][11]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The Crown S series has achieved cumulative sales of over 20 million units by April 2025, setting a record for single-series sales in the industry [1]. - The series introduces advanced technologies such as the TTFAR Evergreen Range Extension System and TTFAR High-Energy Lithium Battery System, enhancing battery durability and performance [4][6]. - The product lineup includes models like the White Shark 90 for daily commuting, White Shark 100 for performance enthusiasts, and the Starship Sodium Electric version for cold weather, catering to a wide range of user preferences [7][11]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The TTFAR Evergreen Range Extension System features upgraded materials and patented technologies, significantly improving battery life and reducing user anxiety regarding range [4]. - The TTFAR High-Energy Lithium Battery System optimizes component integration to balance power and long-range capabilities, appealing to younger users [6]. - The iRide smart experience and Ark Safety Technology enhance user interaction and safety, creating a synergistic effect among the three technological systems [6][9]. Group 3: Industry Position and Future Outlook - Yadea is recognized as the leader in long-range electric two-wheelers in China, with a commitment to driving industry standards and technological advancements [3][9]. - The company aims to shift the industry focus from price competition to value competition, enhancing the global competitiveness of Chinese electric two-wheelers [9]. - Yadea's collaboration with Ant Forest and Zhejiang TV for the "Green Evergreen Crown Plan" demonstrates its commitment to social responsibility and sustainable transportation [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, driven by market recovery, new product launches, and policy support [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.054 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.47% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 29.92 million yuan, up 19.08% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The electric two-wheeler industry is transitioning from a fragmented market to one with increasing brand concentration, characterized by intense competition [1] - Key development trends include smart upgrades and expansion into niche markets [1] Group 3: Product Strategy - The company plans to launch customized products targeting female consumers, focusing on fashion design and functional optimization to capture the "she economy" segment [1] - Future efforts will concentrate on refining niche markets to meet diverse consumer needs [1] Group 4: Operational Strategy - The company will continue to implement a channel penetration strategy, enhancing retail operations in urban communities and rural areas [2] - Support for dealers will be strengthened through live broadcasts, promotional materials, and sales activities to improve retail sales and profits [2] Group 5: R&D and Technological Advancements - The company’s R&D expense ratio for 2024 is approximately 3.12%, with plans for further investment in technology development [2] - Key technological advancements include upgrades in power technology, the development of the SUNRA OS smart driving platform, and the DEMS digital energy management system [2] - These innovations aim to enhance product performance, focusing on core technology and enjoyable travel experiences [2]

Group 1 - The event focuses on new technologies and expanding new markets in the electric two-wheeler and battery sectors [4][5] - The conference will feature the release of the "2025 China Two-Wheeler Battery and Swap Station TOP Rankings and Industry White Paper," which includes rankings for top manufacturers and operators in the industry [4] - The global two-wheeler battery swap market is experiencing rapid growth driven by policy support, demand for instant delivery, and technological upgrades [4] Group 2 - The event will include discussions on high-safety, high-rate, high-energy density, long-cycle life, and low-cost battery products [4] - Emerging applications in low-altitude flight, mobile electric tools, humanoid/robotic technology, smart homes, and energy storage are driving the growth of lightweight power and small-scale energy storage markets [4] - AI technology is accelerating the development and optimization of new battery technologies such as sodium batteries and full-tab cylindrical batteries for two-wheeler applications [4] Group 3 - The agenda includes specialized sessions on electric two-wheeler technology, battery technology, and the impact of new national standards on battery safety [6][7] - Key topics will cover trends in lithium battery development, challenges in battery safety, and the application of manganese iron phosphate in two-wheeler batteries [6][7] - The event will host various industry players, including electric two-wheeler manufacturers, battery companies, equipment suppliers, and material providers [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, specifically recommending companies such as Yadea Holdings, Aima Technology, and Ninebot [11]. Core Insights - The Chinese electric two-wheeler industry is entering a mature development phase characterized by "stock replacement dominance and structural incremental support." The domestic market is seeing high ownership levels, and the implementation of new national standards is accelerating industry consolidation, with both cost and supply pressures squeezing smaller brands [3][6]. - Incremental growth is focused on B-end commercial scenarios (instant delivery/shared mobility) and C-end smart upgrades. The expansion of the old-for-new subsidy program in 2025 is expected to stimulate replacement demand [3][6]. - The overseas market, particularly in Europe and North America, is centered around electric bicycles (E-bikes), benefiting from environmental policies and low consumer price sensitivity. The Southeast Asian market shows long-term potential for electric motorcycles, although performance limitations and inadequate infrastructure hinder short-term replacement [3][8]. Summary by Sections Scale: Dominated by Stock Demand, Driven by Smartization and Policy - The electric two-wheeler market includes electric bicycles, electric light motorcycles, and electric motorcycles. The current market ownership is at a high level, with the average penetration rate reaching maturity. Although demand in high-tier cities and motorcycle replacement in lower-tier markets will support steady growth, the growth rate is expected to slow down [6][30]. - Incremental space is concentrated in two areas: B-end instant delivery and shared mobility, benefiting from the economic and flexible nature of electric two-wheelers, and C-end smart upgrades that drive consumer segmentation and product price increases [6][30]. Structure: New National Standards Implementation Optimizes the Landscape - The past changes in industry structure show that policy regulations (like new national standards) and market competition (price wars, channel expansion) create a dual selection mechanism. Leading companies can leverage scale effects to reduce costs and enhance R&D and distribution networks, while weaker brands face exit pressures due to compliance costs and low margins [7][9]. - The new national standards are expected to increase costs by 10%-15%, putting significant pressure on financially weak brands while allowing leading companies to expand market share [7][9]. Incremental Growth: Southeast Asia Policy Drives Potential, E-bike Opportunities in Europe and America - With the domestic market stabilizing, overseas markets are becoming core growth areas. The North American and European markets are primarily driven by mid-to-high-end E-bikes, with a favorable growth trend supported by consumer interest in sustainable transportation and government support [8][9]. - The Southeast Asian market focuses on high-cost-performance electric motorcycles, driven by commuting needs and "oil-to-electric" policies. However, performance gaps and infrastructure issues limit short-term penetration, with fuel vehicles remaining dominant [8][9]. Investment Recommendations: Domestic and International Synergy, Positive Demand Outlook - The domestic market is seeing accelerated concentration due to the new national standards, which pressure smaller brands while allowing leading companies to strengthen their market share through scale effects and technological differentiation [9]. - The overseas market presents opportunities, particularly in the E-bike sector in Europe and North America, where the fragmented competitive landscape offers entry points for Chinese brands [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company has experienced a significant recovery in revenue and a reduction in loss margins in the first quarter of 2025, with a revenue increase of 35.1% year-on-year, reaching 680 million yuan [1][6][7]. Revenue and Profitability - From 2016 to 2021, the company's revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 59.8%, but revenue declined to 2.652 billion yuan in 2023 due to rising lithium carbonate prices and increased competition [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.288 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and continue to recover in 2025 [1][7]. - The net loss narrowed to 39 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, compared to a loss of 272 million yuan in 2023 [1][6][7]. Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin remained stable above 20% from 2019 to 2023, but is projected to decline to 17.3% in the first quarter of 2025 due to tariffs on scooters [3][8]. - The net margin improved to -5.7% in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased sales scale and reduced expense ratios [2][3][8]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company has actively adjusted its product and channel strategies since 2024, launching high-end lead-acid electric two-wheelers to enhance competitiveness and improve sales [4][5][14]. - The introduction of new models, such as the NT/MT Play series, has been well-received, with significant sales achieved shortly after launch [17][20]. - The company has expanded its distribution network, increasing the number of terminal stores to 4,119 in the first quarter of 2025, up from 3,735 in 2024 [23]. Sales Performance - The company reported a total sales volume of 203,000 units in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.4%, with domestic sales reaching 183,000 units [13][14]. - The company has successfully navigated challenges in overseas markets, achieving 165,000 units in exports in 2024, primarily to the US and Europe [13][14]. Brand and Market Position - The company has established a strong brand presence and competitive edge in the high-end electric two-wheeler market, recognized as a leading brand in smart electric vehicles [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has launched a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, aiming to grant approximately 14.18 million shares to 421 individuals, which is about 1.65% of the total share capital, at a price of 20.6 yuan per share. This plan is expected to motivate the core team and stimulate growth [1] - The incentive plan sets performance targets for revenue and net profit growth from 2024 as a base, requiring growth rates of at least 15%/32.25%/52.09% for the years 2025-2027, indicating a strong emphasis on sustained growth [2] - The company is focusing on product upgrades and has partnered with ByteDance and Midea to enhance its smart strategy, aiming for a transformation towards full-chain intelligence and user operation [3] - The company anticipates steady sales growth in Q2 2025, with supply chain issues previously encountered now resolved, and aims to leverage its strengths to increase market share [3] Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to grow from 21.036 billion yuan in 2023 to 34.158 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.3% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 1.881 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.348 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 12.7% [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 16.5% in 2023 to 18.6% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.18 yuan in 2023 to 3.89 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 17.67 to 9.93 over the same period [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Fifth Start Two-Wheeled Vehicle Battery Swap Conference and Lightweight Power Battery Technology Summit aims to focus on new technologies and expand new markets, highlighting the rapid growth of the battery swap market driven by policy support, demand for instant delivery, and technological upgrades [3][4]. Group 1: Event Background and Highlights - The event will feature the authoritative release of the "2025 China Two-Wheeled Vehicle Battery Swap and Battery TOP Rankings and Industry White Paper," covering various rankings such as the top 10 electric two-wheeled vehicle shipments and battery operators [3]. - The global battery swap market for two-wheeled vehicles is experiencing rapid growth, with Chinese companies poised for a new round of strategic positioning due to industry chain integration advantages [3]. - Challenges such as battery safety, market penetration, and cost optimization need urgent solutions as companies accelerate the development of high-safety, high-rate, high-energy density, long-cycle life, and low-cost battery products [3]. - The lightweight power and small-scale energy storage markets are also growing rapidly, with applications in low-altitude flight, mobile electric tools, humanoid/robotic technology, smart homes, and intelligent energy storage [3]. - AI technology is accelerating the development and optimization of new battery technologies and processes, such as sodium batteries and full-tab cylindrical batteries, particularly in the battery swap sector for two-wheeled vehicles [3]. Group 2: Event Agenda - The conference will take place on July 10-11, 2025, in Wuxi, Jiangsu, with a scale of over 500 participants [4][6]. - Key topics include the development trends of electric two-wheeled vehicles, battery technology advancements, and the opportunities and challenges in the battery swap market [5][7]. - Roundtable discussions will address critical issues such as balancing energy density, cost, and safety in battery production, as well as the impact of new national standards on battery technology [7]. Group 3: Invited Companies - Notable companies invited to participate include leading electric two-wheeled vehicle manufacturers like Yadea, Aima, and Niu, as well as battery companies such as CATL and BYD [9]. - The event will also attract equipment and materials companies involved in battery production and technology [9]. Group 4: Participation Details - The registration fee for the conference is set at 2888 yuan per person, which includes a conference ticket, lunch, and a copy of the industry white paper [11].