业内人士告诉记者，《通知》中的回应均是对历史文件的重申，没有新增内容。但是从近两年的市场来看，此前被明令禁止的"低价包销""白菜价"承销等 问题又死灰复燃。 剑指四大问题 《通知》强调，发行人、承销机构（包括主承销商和承销商）不得事先约定债券发行利率，不得以"返费"等手段扭曲市场价格，不得以代持、互持等方式 谋取不正当利益。 《通知》规定，主承销商不得将包销变相作为主动投资争揽客户的手段。承销机构开展余额包销应当报价公允、程序合规，并严格按照发行文件披露的方 式确定余额包销利率。余额包销不得挤占有效申购投资者认购规模，余额包销利率不得低于投资者有效申购利率上限。 《通知》还明确， 承销机构不得以低于成本的承销费率报价参与债券项目竞标。发行人、承销机构应按照商业约定履行付款义务，不应拒绝支付或拖欠 费用。 同时，投资者不得协助发行人"自融"，不得参与内幕交易、操纵市场、利益输送、非市场化发行等违法违规活动。承销机构投资债券的，应确保债券发行 承销与投资等业务条线相互隔离，防范利益冲突和道德风险。 《通知》强调，对违反相关自律规则及本通知的，交易商协会将根据违规情形予以自律管理措施或自律处分。涉嫌违反法律、行政法 ...

[Table_Main] 固定收益点评 证券分析师 吕品 资格编号：S0120524050005 邮箱：lvpin＠tebon.com.cn 严伶怡 资格编号：S0120524110003 邮箱：yanly＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 苏鸿婷 邮箱：suht＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 1.《以逸待劳，重视负债端变化》， 2025.6.11 2.《大行买短债流动性与机构行为 跟踪-》，2025.6.9 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 固定收益点评 社融增速维稳，债券融资发力支撑。5 月社融增速环比持平，整体略低预期。5 月 新增社会融资规模 22,894 亿元，同比多增 2,271 亿元，同比增速为 8.70%，环比 上月持平。整体来看，社融增速较前月表现持平，延续前月较高增速水平，结构上 债券融资形成支撑，贷款端有一定拖累，从今年政府债发行进度来看，整体进度较 快尤其是特别国债发行节奏较快，前置发力特征明显，此外伴随科创债发行企业债 融资亦有改善，对社融整体构成正向贡献。 居民信贷偏稳，企业短贷冲量与中长贷偏弱。5 月信贷低于预期，结构表现分化， 居民 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Russell Investments suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates throughout the summer, with potential rate cuts of one to two times by the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. recession outlook, citing that the impact of tariffs is lower than expected and the financial environment has returned to pre-tariff levels [2] - The current inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may be less significant than anticipated, although future CPI increases are expected due to tariff effects [2] Group 2: Global Economic and Market Trends - Analysts from Deutsche Bank note that the market's inflation and interest rate expectations in Japan are rising, putting pressure on the long-term bond market [1] - The performance of German and U.S. government bonds is influenced by inflation concerns and safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - The decline in new home sales in Singapore is attributed to a lack of new launches, reflecting uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook due to global trade challenges [3] Group 3: Currency and Oil Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar is primarily driven by a rebound in oil prices rather than traditional safe-haven dynamics [4] - The U.S. has become one of the largest oil producers globally, which means that rising oil prices not only benefit oil-producing countries but also support the dollar through improved trade conditions [4] - Investors are advised to focus on global oil price changes and their impact on U.S. trade conditions for a more accurate prediction of the dollar's performance in international markets [5]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasized the need to effectively promote the construction of "good houses" and integrate it into urban renewal mechanisms, providing policy support in planning, land, finance, and other areas to stabilize the real estate market [4] - The People's Bank of China announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 6 months [4] - The central government allocated 80 billion yuan for urban renewal projects, benefiting approximately 17 million people and improving living conditions [5] Group 2 - A series of adjustments to A-share indices, including major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component, will take effect on June 16 [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released new regulations for algorithmic trading in the futures market to enhance monitoring and risk management [4] - The successful clinical trial of an invasive brain-computer interface marks China as the second country globally to enter this phase, following the United States [5] Group 3 - GAC Group committed to ensuring the completion of dealer rebate payments within two months [10] - Kweichow Moutai adjusted its 2024 profit distribution plan, increasing the dividend to 27.673 yuan per share [10] - Shenzhen Guangdao Digital Technology Co., Ltd. faces potential forced delisting due to financial fraud, with trading suspended for one day [10] Group 4 - Huatai Securities reported that the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to high volatility in oil prices, with significant price rebounds expected [14] - CITIC Securities noted that the new model of real estate development will more effectively address structural supply-demand mismatches, with economic growth projected to exceed 5% in the second quarter [15] - GF Securities maintained a positive outlook on the computer industry, emphasizing the importance of external risk preferences and identifying key areas for mid-term opportunities [16]

市场融资效率提升 得益于全面注册制深化改革，今年前五个月，非金融企业境内股票融资(IPO及再融资)达到1504亿元， 同比多增444亿元。2025年5月末，非金融企业境内股票余额为11.87万亿元，同比增长2.9%。 今年以来，金融对实体经济的支持力度进一步加强。6月13日，中国人民银行发布最新金融统计数据。 初步测算，2025年前五个月，社会融资规模增量累计达18.63万亿元，比上年同期多增3.83万亿元。与此 同时，5月末社会融资规模存量升至426.16万亿元，同比增长8.7%。 值得关注的是，我国资本市场融资功能持续增强。数据显示，2025年前五个月非金融企业境内股票融资 规模达1504亿元，较去年同期增长444亿元，呈现稳步回升态势。截至5月末，非金融企业境内股票余额 达11.87万亿元，同比增长2.9%。 对实体经济发放贷款增加10.38万亿 在稳增长政策持续发力、经济复苏动能增强的背景下，社会融资需求稳步回升，金融对实体经济的支持 力度进一步加大。央行初步统计，2025年前五个月社会融资规模增量累计为18.63万亿元，比上年同期 多3.83万亿元。 从结构看，新增社融主要由人民币贷款、政府债券融资 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 5 月，新增社融 2.29 万亿（前值 1.16 万亿），新增人民币贷款 6200 亿（前值 2800 亿）。社融 存量同比增长 8.7% （前值 8.7% ）， M2 同比增长 7.9% （前值 8% ），新口径 M1 同比增长 2.3% （前 值 1.5% ）。 核心观点 1 、在海外关税政策不确定性的影响下， 4 月和 5 月企业存款回落，企业现金流或承受一定程度的冲击。 2 、但在国内稳定资本市场政策的确定性的影响下，新增非银存款持续抬升， 4 月 5 月非银存款新增规模 是 2016 年以来同期最高值。 3 、政府层面，政府加速发债的背景下，新增存款规模相对偏慢，从这个视角来看政府债的下拨也相对偏 快，不过要关注后续政府债接近发行规模后的续航问题。 4 、从领先指标来看，企业居民存款剪刀差自 2024 年 9 月以来仍在持续改善，外部环境的不确定性并未打 破这一趋势，这或许意味着国内政策的确定性当下或是影响经济循环行为更重要的变量。 报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant changes in the flow of funds in the financial market, driven by a decline in deposit interest rates, leading to a "deposit migration" effect where individuals and businesses are shifting their funds to higher-yielding financial products like money market funds and cash management products [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections Deposit Growth - As of the end of May, the balance of RMB deposits reached 316.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with new deposits in May amounting to nearly 2.2 trillion yuan, which is 500 billion yuan more than the same period last year [1][3]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.19 trillion yuan in May, marking the highest level for the same period in nearly a decade, with a year-on-year increase of 300 billion yuan [3][4]. Factors Influencing Non-Bank Deposits - The significant rise in non-bank deposits is closely linked to the increased activity in the financial market and a shift in fund flows, particularly due to the recent round of deposit rate cuts [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the decline in deposit rates has led residents and some businesses to move their funds from demand deposits to higher-yielding financial products, directly contributing to the substantial growth in non-bank deposits [5][6]. Bank Wealth Management Growth - The continued growth of bank wealth management products serves as strong evidence of the "deposit migration" effect, with a month-on-month increase of 340 billion yuan in May, bringing the total to 31.6 trillion yuan [6]. - The performance of credit bonds has enhanced the attractiveness of wealth management products, providing stable underlying asset returns and improving investor experience, which in turn attracts more funds [6]. Monthly Deposit and Loan Growth Discrepancies - In May, while deposits saw a significant increase, RMB loans rose by only 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, indicating a divergence in growth rates [12]. - Experts note that the differences in monthly deposit and loan growth reflect the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures, necessitating a long-term perspective on these dynamics [12][14]. Economic Context and Market Sentiment - The resilience in May's data is attributed to a series of financial support measures that have boosted market confidence, leading to signs of recovery in investment and consumption activities [10]. - The overall increase in deposits is also influenced by the gradual release of fiscal funds and the recovery of local government financing, which supports the demand for demand deposits [10][13].

资金面部分，未来一周，政府债净缴款规模下降，税期扰动资金面，考虑到央行对资 金面的呵护态度，工具箱的充裕程度，资金面预计维持均衡偏松运行。 存单部分，未来一周，存单到期规模超万亿，供给压力不小，央行二次投放中长期资 金，存单的发行压力预计边际减弱，存单收益率或呈现震荡下行走势。 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 15 日 央行呵护资金面态度明确 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 核心观点 机构行为部分，基金切换为利率债主要买盘，过去一周净买入规模放量明显；农商行 切换为主要卖盘。 ❑ 流动性：央行二次预告投放中长期流动性，呵护态度坚定 1、资金面部分：如何看待央行二次提前公告买断式逆回购操作？ 5 月社融数据显示居民及企业信贷需求环比 4 月均有所回暖，整体信贷需求弱企 稳。政府债供给放量驱动社融增速保持稳定，有望支撑 6 月的财政支出发力关键 期。5 月存款利率调降后，存款搬家现象显现，非银存款高增。 央行月中公告二次投放 6M 买断回购 4000 亿元，结合之前投放的 1 万亿 3M 买断 回购，结合本月共有 1.2 万亿到期量，全月实现买断式逆 ...

截至 6 月 13 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.35 年、2.98 年，均处于 2021 年 3 月以来 90%以上分位数水 平，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 3.90、3.70 年、2.03 年，其 中一般商金债位于较低历史水平；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分别 为 1.64 年、2.05 年、3.56 年、1.62 年，其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，租赁公司债位于较高历史 分位。 模型适用性风险；模型估算误差 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 城投债：城投债加权平均成交期限徘徊在 2.35 年附近。其中，陕西省级城投债久期超 6 年，河北省级城投债成交久 期缩短至 0.81 年附近。同时，江苏区县级、浙江地级市、重庆区县级、广东地级市、福建区县级、四川省级、河南地 级市等区域城投债久期历史分位数已逾 90%，安徽地级市、浙江地级市、广东地级市城投债久期逼近 2021 年以来最 高。 产业债：产业债加权平均成交期限较上周有所缩短，总体处于 2.98 年附近，食品饮料行业成交久期缩短幅度较大， 缩短至 ...

DR001 或成新目标 宽松下限尚未到达 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250615 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com 3DR001 或成新目标 宽松下限尚未到达 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行 OMO 净回笼 72 ...