Group 1: Spot Market Data - Newman powder price is 809, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -5, and the import profit is 19.32 [1] - PB powder price is 819, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -3 [1] - Macfarlane powder price is 812, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -12, and the import profit is 47.16 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 772, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -3, and the import profit is 55.23 [1] - Mixed powder price is 754, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -2, and the import profit is 13.74 [1] - Super special powder price is 688, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of -13, and the import profit is 2.12 [1] - Carajás powder price is 905, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -10, and the import profit is -1.75 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder price is 850, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -13, and the import profit is 13.32 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 774, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -12 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 779, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -12 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 892, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -15 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 761, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -3 [1] - Karara concentrate price is 896, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -11 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 806, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -3, and the import profit is 65.68 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 878, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -3 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 623, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of -13 [1] - Atlas powder price is 749, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -2 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 977, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 1 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Data - i2601 contract price is 806.5, with a daily change of -26.0 and a weekly change of -45.5, and the monthly spread is -13.0 [1] - i2605 contract price is 812.0, with a daily change of -1.0 and a weekly change of -2.5, and the monthly spread is -5.5 [1] - i2609 contract price is 793.5, with a daily change of -0.5 and a weekly change of 0.5, and the monthly spread is 18.5 [1] - FE01 contract price is 107.39, with a daily change of -0.61 and a weekly change of -0.46, and the monthly spread is -2.04 [1] - FE05 contract price is 106.74, with a daily change of -0.75 and a weekly change of -0.02, and the monthly spread is 0.65 [1] - FE09 contract price is 105.35, with a daily change of -0.48 and a weekly change of 0.51, and the monthly spread is 1.39 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply is generally loose with the arrival of the first shipment of Simandou iron ore in China; overseas shipments declined last week, but recent concentrated arrivals of iron ore have led to a continuous increase in port inventories. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production declined, iron ore daily consumption decreased, and in - plant inventories increased. Overall, supply is stronger than demand, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the impact of steel mills' restocking before the Spring Festival [1][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3163 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.60% with a total trading volume of 5178836 lots and a total open interest of 2320984 lots - SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3315 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 0.64% with a total trading volume of 2077198 lots and a total open interest of 1448345 lots - DCE iron ore closed at 812.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or - 0.31% with a total trading volume of 1331049 lots and a total open interest of 652402 lots - DCE coking coal closed at 1171.0 yuan/ton, down 24.5 yuan or - 2.05% with a total trading volume of 6677833 lots and a total open interest of 625637 lots - DCE coke closed at 1717.0 yuan/ton, down 31.0 yuan or - 1.77% with a total trading volume of 116309 lots and a total open interest of 38799 lots [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand side**: Last week, hot metal production declined, iron ore daily consumption decreased, and in - plant inventories increased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points from the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average hot metal production was 228.01 tons, a decrease of 1.49 tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.53 tons from the same period last year - **Supply side**: Overseas shipments declined last week, but recent concentrated arrivals of iron ore have led to a continuous increase in port inventories. On January 17, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived at China Baowu's Majishan Port. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 31.809 million tons, a decrease of 328,000 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 172.887 million tons, an increase of 2.4426 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 194,000 tons [4][5] 3.3 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, including optimizing loan discount policies for service - sector business entities and personal consumption loans, implementing loan discount policies for small and medium - sized enterprises, establishing a special guarantee plan for private investment, and optimizing the fiscal discount policy for equipment renewal loans - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments announced that from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a housing in the market within one year after the sale of their current housing will be eligible for a tax refund on the individual income tax paid for the sale of their current housing - The central bank launched a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the re - loan and re - discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, merging the use of re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses with re - discount quotas, increasing the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, setting up a 1 - trillion - yuan re - loan for private enterprises in the total quota, expanding the support scope of the carbon emission reduction support tool, and lowering the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing purchase loans to 30%. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year - According to China Baowu, the first shipment of Simandou iron ore arrived at China Baowu's Majishan Port. On January 17, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore successfully arrived at a Chinese port [10] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as the profitability rate of steel mills across the country, daily average pig iron production, global iron ore shipments, port inventories, and domestic mine iron ore production from 2022 to 2026 [8][11][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to decline, but there is still support from the macro - level. As the enthusiasm for chasing commodity prices fades and profit - taking accelerates, the iron ore price has fallen from its high. However, the macro - level expectations and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may provide some support, and investors should be wary of upward price drivers that deviate from fundamentals [3][5] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Overseas overall iron ore shipments are at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments have declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, showing a moderately weak performance. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil to China have been continuously falling recently [5] - The four major mainstream mines' shipments at the beginning of the year are moderately strong. For example, Vale's global shipments have increased by 19.0% year - to - date [4] - After months, Ukraine has resumed overseas shipments. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region has rebounded, driving the overall operation of domestic mines to improve [20][28] 3.2 Demand - The blast furnace operation rate has decreased month - on - month but remains relatively high compared to the same period last year. The pre - Spring Festival restocking demand from downstream industries may support the molten iron production to some extent [5][31] - The substitution effect of scrap steel is limited. The price of iron ore has only a limited decline, and the scrap - iron price difference has rebounded slightly from a low level, but the overall level is still around zero [32] 3.3 Macro - level - The People's Bank of China has decided to lower the re - loan and re - discount rates, reigniting the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, there is still some support for the valuation of domestic risk assets [5] 3.4 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 05 contract has weakened in a volatile manner, closing at 812.00 yuan/ton. The position is 648,900 lots, an increase of 9,000 lots week - on - week. The average daily trading volume is 266,200 lots, a decrease of 75,100 lots week - on - week [7] 3.5 Spot Price Performance - The price of medium - grade iron ore remains relatively firm with a small decline. For example, the price of PB powder (61.5%) has decreased by 7 yuan/ton week - on - week [11] 3.6 Inventory - There is an obvious differentiation between port inventory and steel mill raw material inventory. Structurally, the powder ore inventory is significantly high [36][38] 3.7 Downstream Profit - The decline in raw material futures prices has helped to repair the on - paper profit. For example, the spot profit of hot - rolled coils and the on - paper profit of screw steel and coil steel have shown certain changes [40] 3.8 Spot Category Price Difference - The upward momentum of imported medium - grade powder ore has weakened, and the price difference between domestic iron ore concentrate and PB powder has rebounded from a low level [42] 3.9 Futures Month - to - Month Spread - During the recent price decline, the price of the near - month main contract has fallen more, and the 5 - 9 spread has continued to narrow compared to last year [44] 3.10 Basis Performance - With the decline in futures prices, the basis has strengthened slightly month - on - month [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - With the end of the year - end shipping rush by mines, the latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline week - on - week. The supply pressure may be marginally reduced as overseas shipments enter the off - season. The limited resumption of hot metal production and the unresolved inventory structural issues, along with the pre - festival restocking by steel mills and the relatively warm market atmosphere, support the iron ore price. However, there is a lack of new marginal drivers. As market sentiment fluctuates, the iron ore price may experience some shock adjustments at high levels. Future attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills and the rhythm of hot metal production [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The global total iron ore shipments were 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons. Australia's shipments were 19.316 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 16.52 million tons, an increase of 36,700 tons. Brazil's shipments were 6.748 million tons, a decrease of 1.283 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 30.15 million tons, an increase of 1.903 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 29.204 million tons, an increase of 1.64 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points [13]. - **Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports nationwide was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 126 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder price difference was 81 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder price difference was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 22.5 yuan/ton, with no change [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: The pellet feed ratio was 14.59%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 11.63%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.78%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,155 yuan/ton, with no change. The Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,110 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from last week. The PB powder import profit was 23.21 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - The imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 165.551 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7984 million tons. The pellet inventory was 391,000 tons, an increase of 46,210 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.52971 million tons, an increase of 66,940 tons. The lump ore inventory was 2.15413 million tons, an increase of 38,750 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 73.8921 million tons, an increase of 2.0387 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 57.0714 million tons, an increase of 432,400 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, an increase of 2.7263 million tons from last week [35][38][41][46]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: The latest 19 - port Australian shipments to China were 15.933 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,500 tons. Brazilian shipments were 6.643 million tons, a decrease of 1.282 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.085 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 414,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.555 million tons, a decrease of 409,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 5.896 million tons, an increase of 271,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.914 million tons, an increase of 1.148 million tons [51][54][57]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: The latest 45 - port arrivals were 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons. In November, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.0041 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 845,000 tons [60]. - **Domestic Mines**: The latest domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 59.72%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points. The daily average iron concentrate powder output of domestic mines was 46,670 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons [66]. 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points. The 45 - port daily average iron ore port clearance volume was 3.1989 million tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,400 tons [71][74]. 3.6 Basis - As of January 16, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 38.72 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 4.55% [79].

Core Insights - The successful arrival of the bulk carrier "Weili Qingnian" at the Ma Jishan Baosteel ore transfer terminal marks the first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project to China, indicating a significant milestone in the project’s development [1][3] Group 1: Project Overview - The Simandou iron ore project, located in southeastern Guinea, is set to commence production in November 2025 and is recognized as a world-class large-scale high-quality open-pit iron ore mine with a resource volume exceeding 4 billion tons and an average iron content of over 65% [3] - The project is primarily led by Chinese enterprises, which hold more than half of the equity, and is expected to reach full production around 2030, contributing to 5% of global iron ore supply and enhancing China's bargaining power and resource security in iron ore trade [3] Group 2: Logistics and Operations - The "Weili Qingnian" vessel departed from the port of Maribaya in Guinea on December 3, 2025, carrying 200,000 tons of high-grade iron ore, marking the establishment of a complete industrial chain from mining to rail, port, and maritime transport, thus entering the commercial operation phase [3] - Upon arrival at the Ma Jishan Baosteel ore transfer terminal, the vessel is set to unload approximately 110,000 tons of iron ore before proceeding to Rizhao, Shandong, to unload the remaining cargo [3] - To ensure the safe entry of the "Weili Qingnian," the Zhoushan maritime department organized traffic flow in the port approach and provided full escort for the vessel, utilizing smart maritime systems and vessel traffic management systems to enhance remote electronic patrols and ensure safety [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current dominant factor for iron ore prices is not the fundamentals but the macro - expectations. In the context of continuous inventory accumulation and slow production resumption, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is a lack of support for the price to continue rising. However, after the price drops, steel mills have a rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so there is also support for the price at the lower level [4][7] - The iron ore price has a large divergence from the fundamentals, and the price is significantly over - estimated [5][7] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Leveraging Factors**: There is a structural shortage of medium - grade iron ore delivery products; the steel fundamentals are acceptable with some support from export rush; steel mills currently have decent profits and some room for production increase [5] - **Negative Factors**: The overall iron ore shipment is moderately high, the floating inventory at sea is high, and the overall spot is not in shortage; despite the price decline, the valuation is still high; the inventory continues to accumulate, with the port inventory exceeding 170 million tons and the accumulation speed exceeding previous years [5] - **Market Performance**: The iron ore swap price once exceeded $109 per ton during the week, hitting an 18 - month high, but then the price declined along with other risk assets. After the recent surge in non - ferrous metals and other assets, the selling pressure was significant, and assets with large previous gains all corrected. The iron ore price trend, after removing the impact of inventory fundamental factors, is currently close to the CSI 300 index trend again, indicating that the current price is mainly driven by macro factors rather than fundamental factors [5] - **Supply - Side Situation**: After the end - of - year shipment rush, the seasonality has weakened, but the year - on - year shipment is still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth of 12%. The iron ore shipment is still in excess, which is the main reason for the continuous inventory increase [5] - **Demand - Side Situation**: The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, with the pig iron output in this period decreasing by 1.5 tons to 2.28 million tons compared with the previous period. The steel outbound volume has been at a high level since December. In December, the steel export volume was 11.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.32 million tons or 13.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. Currently, the rebar production is at a low level, the demand is resilient, and the inventory has not accumulated rapidly. The hot - rolled coil production has marginally increased, but the demand can digest the production increase, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased [5][7] - **Inventory - Side Situation**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, with the inventory of imported ore in 47 ports reaching 17.2887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 244,260 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate beyond the seasonality, and the divergence between the iron ore price and the fundamentals continues to widen. Steel mills are gradually replenishing raw materials before the Spring Festival, but the replenishment pace is significantly slower than in previous years, and the overall replenishment willingness of steel mills is not strong, mainly for rigid - demand procurement and being cautious about prices [7] 1.2 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range is 770 - 820 yuan, with the current at - the - money option IV at 18.90% and the historical volatility percentile at 11.3% [8] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, if there is spot inventory and there is concern about future inventory price decline, the strategies include directly shorting iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2602, short, 25%, entry range: 840 - 850) and selling call options to collect premiums (I2602 - C - 840, 30%, sell at high prices). For procurement management, if there is a need to purchase in the future and there is concern about price increase, the strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2602, long, 30%, entry range: 800 - 810) and selling out - of - the - money put options. If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions (I2602 - P - 810, 40%, sell at high prices) [8] 1.3 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: The pig iron cost per ton decreased by 1.69 yuan week - on - week and 7.65 yuan month - on - month; the blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit per ton decreased by 5 yuan week - on - week and increased by 6 yuan month - on - month; the blast furnace rebar profit per ton decreased by 3 yuan week - on - week and increased by 34 yuan month - on - month; the average - electricity rebar profit of Jiangsu electric furnaces decreased by 52 yuan week - on - week and 21 yuan month - on - month; the steel mill profitability rate increased by 2.17 percentage points week - on - week and 3.9 percentage points month - on - month; the iron - scrap price difference decreased by 21.69 yuan week - on - week and 38 yuan month - on - month [9] - **Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data**: The global shipment volume decreased by 328,000 tons week - on - week and 4.116 million tons month - on - month; the Australia - Brazil shipment volume decreased by 1.333 million tons week - on - week and 3.561 million tons month - on - month; the Australian shipment volume decreased by 51,000 tons week - on - week and 1.217 million tons month - on - month; the Brazilian shipment volume decreased by 1.282 million tons week - on - week and 2.345 million tons month - on - month; the non - Australia - Brazil shipment volume increased by 1.005 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 555,000 tons month - on - month [10] - **Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data**: The daily average port clearance volume decreased by 33,800 tons week - on - week and increased by 64,400 tons month - on - month; the daily average pig iron output decreased by 14,900 tons week - on - week and increased by 14,600 tons month - on - month; the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and increased by 0.37 percentage points month - on - month; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points week - on - week and increased by 0.55 percentage points month - on - month [11] - **Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data**: The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports increased by 2.7984 million tons week - on - week and 10.4247 million tons month - on - month; the proportion of traded ore in 45 ports increased by 0.07 percentage points week - on - week and 1.04 percentage points month - on - month; the port congestion days in 45 ports remained unchanged week - on - week and increased by 3 days month - on - month; the number of ships at ports in 45 ports increased by 1 week - on - week and 6 month - on - month; the inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased by 2.7263 million tons week - on - week and 5.3827 million tons month - on - month; the available days of imported ore in steel mills increased by 1.13 days week - on - week and 1.77 days month - on - month [12] Chapter 2: Supply - **Global Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality, year - on - year cumulative difference, and over - seasonality of the global iron ore shipment volume [13] - **Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis**: Studied the seasonality, year - on - year cumulative difference, over - seasonality, and year - on - year cumulative value of the shipment volume of the four major iron ore mines [15][18] - **Non - Mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis**: Examined the seasonality, year - on - year cumulative difference, over - seasonality, and year - on - year cumulative value of the non - mainstream mines' shipment volume. The Platts iron ore index leads the non - mainstream shipment by about 5 weeks [21][24] - **Arrival and Congestion Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality, year - on - year cumulative value of the arrival volume at 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and the actual arrival volume [26][29] - **Capsize Shipping Analysis**: Studied the seasonality of freight prices, the proportion of freight costs, ship speed, and the floating inventory of iron ore [32][38] - **Domestic Ore Supply Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality of the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from 186 mine enterprises and the monthly output of 433 mine enterprises [41] Chapter 3: Demand Analysis 3.1 Pig Iron Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises, the impact of blast furnace maintenance on pig iron production, and the relationship between pig iron output over - seasonality, year - on - year change, and iron ore prices [45][47][49] 3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis - Studied the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the relationship between various steel product profits and future production [51][55][57] 3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis: Rebar - Analyzed the seasonality of rebar production, consumption, total inventory, short - process production, the proportion of short - process production, the price - cost relationship, and related price spreads [65][66][70] 3.4 Downstream Steel Analysis: Hot - Rolled Coil - Studied the seasonality of hot - rolled coil production, consumption, total inventory, and price spreads [73][74][76] 3.5 Downstream Steel Analysis: Medium - Thick Plate - Analyzed the seasonality of medium - thick plate production, consumption, total inventory, and inventory - sales ratio [78][79] 3.6 Off - Balance - Sheet Steel Analysis - Examined the seasonality of off - balance - sheet steel production estimation, the combined inventory of on - and off - balance - sheet crude steel, and the production, inventory, and apparent demand of various steel products such as H - beams, angle steels, galvanized coils, and others [81][83][87] 3.7 Export Analysis - Analyzed the monthly export volume of steel, the port outbound volume, export orders, and export profits [98][99] Chapter 4: Inventory Analysis 4.1 Port Inventory Analysis - Studied the seasonality of the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports, the inventory structure, the relationship between inventory over - seasonality and iron ore prices, the seasonality of different types of ore inventory, and the proportion of different types of ore in the port inventory [101][104][113] 4.2 Other Inventory Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the imported iron ore inventory in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of in - plant and floating in - transit iron ore in steel mills, and the estimated inventory turnover days [119][120] Chapter 5: Valuation Analysis 5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Presented the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, including the cheapest spot price, converted futures price, basis of different contracts, and delivery profits. Also analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [121][122] 5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - Rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio - Studied the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and the hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [124] 5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the price difference between coking coal and iron ore of different contracts and the cost - sharing relationship between coking coal and iron ore [126][127] 5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - Effectiveness Analysis - Examined the iron - scrap price difference, the relationship between the iron - scrap price difference and scrap steel consumption, and the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast - furnace enterprises [129][131][133]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, steel products are supported by the cost side with limited downside, but lack upward drivers, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, with a high shipping level, slow steel - mill resumption, increasing port inventories, and high valuations, so the short - term price is weak but with limited downside [21] - The coking coal supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the surplus is not serious. The inventory structure is expected to improve, and the macro sentiment is the key factor for price trends [32] - Ferroalloys have large supply pressure, but are supported by the cost side, and may show bottom - oscillating trends after a correction [49] - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the long - term, with increasing over - supply expectations. High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream limit prices [63] - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, and the high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, with existing spot pressure [87] 3. Summary of Each Section Steel Products - **Price Data**: - On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day, and the month - spreads also showed different degrees of change. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, up from 3165 yuan/ton on the previous day [4] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed slightly, and the basis also had corresponding fluctuations [8][10] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot roll - rebar price difference also showed different trends [15] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable [18] Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume of iron ore is at a moderately high level with a 12% year - on - year increase. The steel - mill resumption is slow, with a 1.5 - million - ton week - on - week decrease in molten iron production to 228 million tons. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, exceeding historical highs [21] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts generally decreased compared to the previous day, and the basis also changed. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 806.5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Fundamentals**: The coking coal supply - demand structure is in surplus, but the surplus is not serious compared to previous years. With the improvement of demand and the reduction of domestic mine production during the Spring Festival, the inventory structure is expected to improve [32] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the coking coal and coke contract spreads, the basis, and the production profits all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [33][35][36] Ferroalloys - **Fundamentals**: Silicon iron has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of silicon manganese has decreased week - on - week, but the inventory base is still large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is large, but they are supported by the cost side [49] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the basis, contract spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [50][51] Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: With the release of new production capacity, the daily output of soda ash has reached a new high, and the over - supply expectation is intensifying. The inventory in the upstream and mid - stream is high, which restricts the price. However, exports in November were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [63] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts and the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in different regions remained stable [64] Glass - **Fundamentals**: Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [87] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts and the month - spreads changed significantly. For example, the glass 01 contract dropped to 0 yuan/ton from 941 yuan/ton on the previous day [88]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2026 年 1 月 1 6 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 813.0 | 821.0 | -8.0 | I05-I09 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 | | I09 | 794.0 | 799.0 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | -38.5 | -33.5 | -5.0 | | I01 | 832.5 | 832.5 | 0.0 | I01-I05 | 19.5 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - No relevant information provided 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Newman powder price is 810, down 8 daily and 3 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 867.2, and an import profit of 16.20 [1] - PB powder price is 820, down 7 daily and 1 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 874.2 [1] - Macfarlane powder price is 813, down 7 daily and 10 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 887.9, and an import profit of 43.45 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 773, down 7 daily and 1 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 867.8, and an import profit of 54.83 [1] - Mixed powder price is 755, down 2 daily and up 5 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 895.2, and an import profit of 11.15 [1] - Ultra-special powder price is 693, down 9 daily and 7 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 915.0, and an import profit of 3.97 [1] - Carajás powder price is 906, down 3 daily and 7 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 841.8, and an import profit of -5.23 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder price is 851, down 7 daily and 11 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 860.2, and an import profit of 9.87 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 775, down 12 daily and 10 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 850.1 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 780, down 12 daily and 10 weekly [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 893, down 8 daily and 12 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 994.9 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 762, down 7 daily and 1 weekly [1] - Karara concentrate price is 897, down 8 daily and 8 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 919.4 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 807, down 7 daily and 1 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 888.2, and an import profit of 65.64 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 879, down 7 daily and 1 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 859.3 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 628, down 9 daily and 7 weekly [1] - Atlas powder price is 750, down 2 daily and up 5 weekly [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 977, down 5 daily and 5 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 864.0 [1] 3.2 Futures Market - i2601 contract price is 832.5, unchanged daily and down 25.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of -38.5, and a change of 9.3 daily, -3.2 weekly, and 17.9 monthly [1] - i2605 contract price is 813.0, down 8 daily and unchanged weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of 19.5, and a change of 28.8 daily, 4.8 weekly, and -7.6 monthly [1] - i2609 contract price is 794.0, down 5 daily and up 2 weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of 19.0, and a change of 47.8 daily, 1.8 weekly, and -9.6 monthly [1] - FE01 contract price is 108.00, down 0.19 daily and 0.85 weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of -2.17, and a change of -19.1 daily, 3.6 weekly, and 2.1 monthly [1] - FE05 contract price is 107.49, up 0.08 daily and down 0.46 weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of 0.51, and a change of -26.6 daily, 0.5 weekly, and -1.5 monthly [1] - FE09 contract price is 105.83, up 0.19 daily and down 0.18 weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of 1.66, and a change of -35.5 daily, -0.9 weekly, and -2.2 monthly [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuates, with a daily decline of 0.13%. Demand has improved slightly, but the downstream remains weak, and the supply is weakly stable. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with attention paid to steel mill production [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuates with a 0% daily decline. Demand shows some resilience, but supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuates downward, with a daily decline of 1.03%. Supply remains high, and although demand has improved, fundamental contradictions in the ore market are accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The central bank reported that in 2025, the annual RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan, M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the year - end social financing scale stock was 442.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3% [7]. - By the end of December 2025, over 5500 plots of land were planned to be acquired using special bonds, with a planned acquisition area of nearly 300 million square meters, and more than 300 billion yuan of corresponding special bonds had been issued [8]. - Ukraine's Ferrexpo produced 6.1 million tons of iron ore in 2025, a 9% decrease from 2024 but maintaining above 6 million tons for the second consecutive year. In Q4 2025, production was affected by attacks, with a 29% decline from the previous quarter and a 38.9% decline year - on - year [9]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel products**: Rebar's Shanghai price is 3260 yuan/ton, Tianjin is 3200 yuan/ton, and the national average is 3346 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil's Shanghai price is 3290 yuan/ton, Tianjin is 3190 yuan/ton, and the national average is 3309 yuan/ton. The rebar - scrap spread is 1150 yuan/ton, and the coil - rebar spread is 30 yuan/ton [10]. - **Iron ore**: PB powder in Shandong ports is 815 yuan/ton, Tangshan iron concentrate is 782 yuan/ton, the Australian sea freight is 7.52, and the Brazilian sea freight is 20.38. The SGX swap price (current month) is 108.00, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 107.80 [10]. 3. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract is 3160 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.13%, a trading volume of 754,088, and an open interest of 1,685,122 [12]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active contract is 3307 yuan/ton, with no change, a trading volume of 326,133, and an open interest of 1,448,345 [12]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active contract is 813.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.03%, a trading volume of 252,986, and an open interest of 652,402 [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 - 2026 [15][20]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal changes and month - on - month changes from 2022 - 2026 [23][25]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and electric furnace operating rate of steel mills from 2022 - 2026 [29][32]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Demand has improved slightly, but the downstream is still weak, and supply is weakly stable. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [39]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Demand shows some resilience, but supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Iron ore**: Supply remains high, and although demand has improved, fundamental contradictions in the ore market are accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [41].