Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that despite concerns over a price war in the food delivery market, SF Express's subsidiary, SF Tongcheng, has seen a significant stock price increase of over 30% since May 8, with a maximum increase of over 41%, positioning it as a leader in the instant delivery sector [1] - The competition in the instant retail market, valued in trillions, has created opportunities for third-party instant delivery platforms like SF Tongcheng, which operates independently from any commercial platform and efficiently handles orders from major platforms such as Douyin, WeChat, and Alibaba [1] - SF Tongcheng maintains the highest market share among key accounts (KA clients) in the industry, collaborating with leading brands like McDonald's, KFC, and Starbucks, and is expected to add over 7,500 new KA client stores in 2024, indicating a strong preference for independent logistics by merchants [1] Group 2 - The company has demonstrated robust and sustained profitability, with a 27% year-on-year revenue growth to 15.7 billion yuan in 2024, a doubling of net profit, and an increase in gross margin to 6.8%, making it the only company to achieve continuous profitability since mid-2023 [1] - Analysts from Guohai Securities note that the local lifestyle market is experiencing significant flow diversification, and the company's strong brand and leadership position in instant delivery are expected to enhance its market share while benefiting from economies of scale [2] - Data from Questmobile indicates that the average daily usage of SF Tongcheng's rider app increased by 40% year-on-year in April, suggesting that demand for instant delivery services is likely to exceed expectations due to growth in food delivery and last-mile delivery needs [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing price war in the instant delivery sector, which is squeezing profit margins across the industry, prompting players to actively respond [2] - SF Express's stock has risen over 30% since May 8, with a peak increase of over 41%, positioning it as a leader in the instant delivery sector amid a reassessment of the value of third-party delivery platforms [2] - The competition in the instant retail market reveals that platforms' own delivery capabilities cannot meet the diverse and time-sensitive delivery demands, creating opportunities for third-party platforms like SF Express [2] Group 2 - The market's revaluation of third-party instant delivery services is reflected in SF Express's recent stock performance, driven by significant trends in local life market traffic polarization and high fulfillment demands across multiple scenarios [3] - According to Questmobile data, the average daily usage of SF Express's rider app increased by 40% year-on-year in April, indicating a positive outlook for demand in the instant delivery industry [3] - Analysts have raised revenue forecasts for SF Express for 2025 and 2026, maintaining a "outperforming the industry" rating with a target price of HKD 13.50, suggesting a 26% upside potential from the current price [3]

Company Updates - The company announced that during the "May Day" period, the total business volume for SF Same City increased by 87% year-on-year, with supermarket and department store volume up by 177%, beverage volume up by 106%, and last-mile delivery volume up by 102% [1] - According to Questmobile data, the average daily usage of the rider app in April increased by 40% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the instant delivery sector [1] Industry Commentary - The growth in the takeaway industry is driving demand for last-mile delivery, suggesting that the company's same-city delivery B2B business volume may exceed previous expectations [1] - Questmobile data shows that the average daily usage of KFC and McDonald's increased by 31% and 30% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a positive trend in the takeaway sector [1] - The company is expected to benefit from its refined operational capabilities and flexible logistics network, leading to increased order volumes from key accounts (KA) [1] - The company anticipates that its revenue from merchants will exceed 24% by 2025, with KA business growth expected to be even higher [1] - The company's B2C business is expected to grow steadily alongside macroeconomic demand, supported by synergies with its express delivery services [1] Last-Mile Delivery Insights - The last-mile delivery business is projected to continue contributing revenue beyond expectations due to increased demand from e-commerce returns and the delivery of national subsidy products [2] - The integration of the company's logistics network with its parent company's express network is expected to enhance penetration rates and collaborative effects, further boosting profitability [2] - The company anticipates that its last-mile delivery volume will contribute significantly to revenue growth [2] Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively, to 20.343 billion and 25.711 billion [2] - Despite uncertainties in pricing trends within the takeaway industry, the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 250 million and 406 million [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 13.50, which corresponds to 0.6x and 0.4x P/S for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a 26% upside potential from the current price [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is witnessing a shift in perception towards third-party instant delivery platforms, with SF Express (顺丰同城) emerging as a key beneficiary amidst the competitive landscape of food delivery giants like JD, Meituan, and Alibaba [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ongoing battle for the instant retail market, initially focused on food delivery, has revealed two main issues: the inability of self-owned logistics from platforms to meet diverse delivery demands and the need for merchants to avoid being tied to a single delivery platform [2] - SF Express, as a neutral third-party delivery platform, is positioned to capitalize on these challenges by providing services across multiple platforms, thus enhancing operational efficiency for merchants [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The market for neutral logistics has been disrupted in 2024, with Dada Group being privatized by JD and Flash Delivery facing significant losses, highlighting the scarcity of leading third-party players [3] - In contrast, SF Express has demonstrated strong and sustained profitability, with a 27% year-on-year revenue increase to 15.7 billion yuan and a doubling of net profit, solidifying its position as the only consistently profitable player in the sector [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The stock performance of SF Express reflects a market re-evaluation of the value of third-party instant delivery services, driven by the increasing demand for multi-scenario fulfillment and the company's strong brand presence [3] - Analysts predict continued growth for SF Express, with expectations of increased revenue in 2025 and 2026, supported by a 40% year-on-year increase in daily usage of its rider platform [4]

Group 1 - The concept of "instant consumption" is reshaping consumer habits and shortening the consumption chain, driven by the rapid pace of life and deepening online shopping habits [1][2] - During Mother's Day, there was a significant increase in demand for instant delivery services, with data showing a 161% year-on-year growth in supermarket and department store orders and a 143% increase in beverage orders [1] - Major platforms like Taobao and JD.com are intensifying competition in the instant delivery space, with Taobao upgrading its "hourly delivery" service and launching a "super 10 billion subsidy" campaign in collaboration with Ele.me [1] Group 2 - Instant delivery is becoming a critical competitive tool for local supermarkets, tea shops, retail, and food services, with brands like Luckin Coffee and Haidilao establishing deep partnerships with instant delivery services [2] - Online consumption is expanding into instant delivery, as seen with various platforms launching flower sections for Mother's Day and Douyin offering a "flower hourly delivery" coupon package to stimulate spending [2] - Experts believe that with upcoming consumption events like 520 and 618, instant delivery will continue to play a vital role in connecting businesses and consumers, injecting new vitality into the market [2]

Core Insights - The tourism market is experiencing unprecedented heat ahead of the "May Day" holiday, with significant growth in long-distance travel, cross-border tourism, and county-level tourism [1] - Local cultural and tourism departments are actively implementing consumer-friendly policies, such as Sichuan's issuance of 68.115 million yuan in tourism vouchers [1] Tourism Market Trends - Cross-city accommodation orders exceed 80% due to the "4 days off, 11 days on" holiday strategy, with inbound travel orders increasing by 173% year-on-year [1] - High-star hotel consumption in county areas has surpassed that in high-tier cities, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [1] Innovative Services in Tourism - Instant delivery services are becoming a new focus in the cultural tourism industry, addressing challenges such as luggage management for travelers [3] - SF Express has launched the "Easy Travel" project in Hangzhou and Sanya, providing luggage delivery services that cover transportation hubs, hotels, scenic spots, and commercial areas [3][4] Customer Experience Enhancement - The "Easy Travel" service allows tourists to send their luggage directly to designated locations, improving their travel experience by eliminating the burden of carrying luggage [4] - The service includes over 100 storage points and 24-hour unattended storage options, enhancing customer satisfaction [4] Cultural Tourism Innovations - The rise of "New Chinese-style" tourism is highlighted by the increasing popularity of Hanfu experiences, with over 3,000 Hanfu stores expected in Xi'an by February 2025 [4] - SF Express has introduced a "Hanfu return" service to streamline the return process for tourists, ensuring timely and safe returns of rented Hanfu [4][5] Market Growth Opportunities - The integration of instant logistics services in the cultural tourism sector is seen as a unique value proposition, enhancing consumer engagement and providing growth opportunities for businesses [6] - The "delivery and return" model is gaining traction, with a significant increase in customers utilizing these services, indicating a growing trend in the tourism industry [5][6]

Core Insights - The instant delivery industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with order volume reaching 42 billion in 2023 and expected to exceed 48 billion in 2024, moving towards a trillion-level market [1] - The growth is driven by a combination of diversified traffic channels, integration with instant retail, expansion of food supply, digitalization in lower-tier markets, and the application of new technologies like AI and drones [1][2] - SF Express is leading the industry by connecting upstream traffic and demand through a unique independent third-party position, enhancing service models, and advancing AI and unmanned delivery technologies [1][4] Industry Trends - The instant delivery sector is projected to continue its rapid expansion, with significant contributions from AI and unmanned technologies that enhance operational efficiency and service quality [2][4] - The integration of green and sustainable practices is becoming a core part of the operational framework, with SF Express adopting electric vehicles and AI-driven logistics systems to reduce carbon emissions [2][5] Company Initiatives - SF Express has successfully implemented unmanned vehicle delivery across multiple regions, achieving over a thousand active routes monthly, significantly improving delivery efficiency [4] - The company has reported a 98% usage of green transportation methods in its delivery operations, saving 2.42 million tons of carbon emissions [5] - SF Express is committed to social responsibility, with a focus on creating a supportive ecosystem for its delivery personnel, including safety training and welfare initiatives [6][7] Future Outlook - SF Express aims to maintain its position as an independent third-party instant delivery service, leveraging its full-service network and exploring new models empowered by AI and unmanned technologies [8] - The company is focused on building a collaborative ecosystem that benefits consumers, merchants, and society, contributing to high-quality development in the instant delivery industry [8]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - High-growth companies in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery platforms are expected to deliver significant returns, with business volume and revenue growth around 20% and operating profits increasing substantially [3][4] - As competition stabilizes, operating leverage will lead to greater growth in operating profits, with companies like Manbang Group and Meituan projected to see substantial profit increases in 2024 [4][5] - The rising penetration rates in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery are expected to drive revenue and gross profit growth of approximately 30% for leading companies in 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Growth Logic - Revenue growth and declining expense ratios are key drivers for profit growth, with companies like Manbang Group benefiting from rapid revenue increases and improved monetization rates [14][17] - The report highlights that the faster the revenue growth and the quicker the expense ratio declines, the more significant the profit growth potential [16] High Growth in Leading Companies - In 2024, leading companies in ride-hailing, freight platforms, and instant delivery are expected to see high growth in operating profits, with Didi Chuxing turning profitable [19][23] - The operating profit growth rates for these companies are significantly higher than their gross profit growth rates, indicating effective cost management [23] Operating Leverage - The report notes that the increase in operating profit growth is due to a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, showcasing the effect of operating leverage [28][31] - As leading companies solidify their market positions, their expense ratios are expected to stabilize, further enhancing profit margins [28][46] Revenue and Market Penetration - The revenue growth for leading companies is primarily driven by increases in business volume, with many companies outpacing industry growth rates [39][41] - The rising market penetration rates in various segments, such as ride-hailing and digital freight, are contributing to revenue growth exceeding overall market growth [44] Monetization Rates - Manbang Group's monetization rate is on the rise, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth compared to competitors whose monetization rates are stabilizing [49]

作者：长桥社区@ 戴某DEMO 海豚君经授权发布。 继上篇《 十问十答：刘强东送外卖！京东葫芦里到底卖的什么药？ 》之后，本篇重点通过外卖市场的乱斗复盘、美团和京东的优劣势来深入分析京东这场迟到 的外卖大战。 先上核心判断： 在一个已经发展了 10 多年，增速即将进入个位数区间的存量业务中， 想要占住足够业务盈亏平衡的市场份额「30%的饿了么并未实现盈利」，需要具备许多必 要条件： 1. 数倍于展业红利期的投入； 2. 精准锐利的通过资源投入和得当的运营协作占据业务链条上的「关键竞争资源」； 3. 维持交付链、履约条上各个角色的稳态，将这种局部的竞争优势维持一段时间； 最终才有可能形成差异化的心智和供给，并建立同业效率差； 第一点，在投入这个数字我没具体核算，但饿了么当年在用户心智还未完全确立行业还能相对高速增长的竞争窗口期，真金白银投入了 30 亿补贴，并未对份额 有太大影响。 第二点，是需要创始人级别的一号位owner，对业务十分理解，并能找到差异化竞争的路径，长时间持续的投入； 因为在战略、路径、方法、节奏上都没有什么犯错的空间，空降的职业经理人很难胜任这个角色， 且可能出于 向上 管理的需要，还会增加 ...

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - High-growth companies in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery platforms are expected to achieve revenue growth of around 20%, with operating profits increasing significantly. Companies like Manbang Group and Meituan are projected to have a PE ratio below 20 times in 2025, making them attractive investments [3] - As the competitive landscape stabilizes, stable sales, management, and R&D expenses are expected to lead to substantial growth in operating profits. Companies like Manbang Group, Meituan, and SF Express are anticipated to see their operating profits double in 2024, with continued rapid growth thereafter [4] - The rising penetration rates in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery are expected to drive revenue and gross profit growth of around 30% for companies like Manbang Group, Meituan, and SF Express in 2024. Manbang Group's monetization rate is expected to increase, leading to a gross profit growth rate of 42% in 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Growth Logic - The growth in profits is driven by revenue growth, market expansion, and decreasing expense ratios. Companies with faster revenue growth and declining expense ratios are likely to see quicker profit growth, particularly in the cross-city digital freight sector, where Manbang Group is expected to experience high profit growth [14][16][17] High Growth in Express Delivery, Ride-Hailing, and International Air Transport - In early 2025, most transportation modes are experiencing low growth in volume, while international air transport, express delivery, and ride-hailing are seeing faster growth [11] Head Companies' Profit Growth - In 2024, leading companies in ride-hailing, freight platforms, and instant delivery are expected to see high growth in operating profits, with Didi Chuxing turning profitable. The gross profits of these companies are also expected to grow, although at a slower rate than operating profits [23] Operating Leverage - The increase in operating profit growth is attributed to a decline in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, which enhances operating profit margins. As leading companies solidify their positions, these expenses are expected to stabilize [28][31] Revenue Growth Driven by Business Volume - The revenue growth of leading companies is primarily driven by an increase in business volume, with many companies expected to outpace industry growth rates in 2024 [39][41] Market Penetration Rate Increase - The market penetration rates for various sectors are on the rise, leading to revenue growth that exceeds overall market growth. This trend is particularly evident in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery sectors [44] Monetization Rate - Manbang Group's monetization rate is significantly increasing, contributing to faster revenue growth compared to competitors like Uber and Didi Chuxing, whose monetization rates are stabilizing [49]