2025年05月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 2 | | 铜：矿端扰动，价格上涨 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 6 | | 锌：炼厂扰动上行，但持续性或有限 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：弱预期压制镍价，现实成本支撑 | 12 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025 年 5 月 27 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：跟随上涨 2 期货研究 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | 沪金2508 | 昨日收盘价 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has weakened, leading to a resurgence in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 4.75% to $3,357.70 per ounce and SHFE gold increasing 3.76% to ¥780.10 per gram [1][27] - The U.S. economic uncertainty and global trade dynamics are prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with expectations of continued price appreciation [3][48] - The ongoing U.S.-EU tariff tensions and the recent U.S. debt auction results have contributed to the volatility in the market, reinforcing the attractiveness of precious metals [3][47] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have increased significantly, with COMEX gold up 4.75% and SHFE gold up 3.76% [1][27] - The gold-silver ratio has risen by 0.99% to 99.81, indicating a stronger performance of gold relative to silver [27] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 119,821.97 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 9,728,859.30 ounces [27] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.76% to $9,614.00 per ton, while aluminum fell by 0.62% to $2,466.00 per ton [52] - SHFE copper prices decreased by 0.45% to ¥77,790.00 per ton, while aluminum prices increased by 0.12% to ¥20,155.00 per ton [52] - The overall sentiment in the base metals market remains mixed, with supply concerns and fluctuating demand impacting prices [7][52] Small Metals - The price of magnesium has increased by 0.11% to ¥18,780 per ton, reflecting strong pricing power among manufacturers [14] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, with molybdenum iron at ¥227,500 per ton [15] - The market for small metals is currently stable, with limited price fluctuations observed [15][80]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.61% at 41,603.07 points, the S&P 500 down 0.67% at 5,802.82 points, and the Nasdaq down 1% at 18,737.21 points [1] - Popular tech stocks experienced declines, with Apple dropping over 3%, and Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Meta each falling over 1% [1] - European stock indices also closed lower, with the German DAX down 1.54% at 23,629.58 points, the French CAC40 down 1.65% at 7,734.4 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.24% at 8,717.97 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.90% at $3,357.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.27% at $33.64 per ounce [1] - International oil prices strengthened, with the main US oil contract rising 0.92% to $61.76 per barrel and Brent crude rising 0.92% to $65.03 per barrel [1] - London base metals saw an overall increase, with LME lead up 1.22% at $1,994.00 per ton, LME copper up 1.19% at $9,614.00 per ton, and LME aluminum up 0.41% at $2,466.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 0.43 basis points at 3.982%, the 10-year yield down 2.26 basis points at 4.506%, and the 30-year yield down 0.29 basis points at 5.038% [1] - European bond yields also declined, with the UK 10-year yield down 6.8 basis points at 4.679%, the French 10-year yield down 6 basis points at 3.258%, and the German 10-year yield down 7.6 basis points at 2.565% [1]

2025年05月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 12 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 12 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 23 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：跟随上涨 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日 ...

①美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.27%报42677.24点，标普500指数跌0.39%报5940.46点，纳指跌 0.38%报19142.71点； ②大型科技股多数下跌，谷歌、亚马逊跌超1%，苹果、英伟达跌近1%； ⑧伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME期锌涨1.79%报2724.50美元/吨，LME期铝涨1.27%报2481.00美元/吨， LME期铅涨1.27%报1986.50美元/吨，LME期铜涨0.33%报9554.50美元/吨，LME期锡涨0.19%报32960.00 美元/吨，LME期镍跌0.21%报15530.00美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨0.02个基点报3.970%，3年期美债收益率涨0.01个基点报 3.952%，5年期美债收益率涨1.07个基点报4.072%，10年期美债收益率涨3.96个基点报4.489%，30年期 美债收益率涨6.98个基点报4.974%； ③热门中概股多数收跌，携程网跌超5%，蔚来跌近2%，爱奇艺、小鹏汽车跌超1%，阿里巴巴涨超 1%； ⑩欧债收益率普涨，英国10年期国债收益率涨3.9个基点报4.700%，法国10年期国债收益率涨0.3个基点 报3 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between China and the US has led to a recovery in macroeconomic sentiment, benefiting the overall base metals sector [4][16][42] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to remain attractive due to ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation concerns, with gold prices anticipated to rise in the long term [4][42][43] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in gold and silver mining companies, as well as in base metals like copper and aluminum, driven by favorable market conditions and policy support [17][18][42] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices on COMEX fell by 3.72% to $3,205.30 per ounce, while silver prices decreased by 1.37% to $32.43 per ounce [22][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 617,575.37 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings fell by 1,591,307.50 ounces [24] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support gold prices, with a focus on gold resource stocks due to their low valuation levels [4][42][43] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices increased by 0.02% to $9,447.50 per ton, aluminum rose by 2.65% to $2,481.50 per ton, zinc increased by 1.43% to $2,691.50 per ton, and lead rose by 0.93% to $2,000.00 per ton [6][44] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper at 78,140.00 yuan per ton, aluminum at 20,130.00 yuan per ton, zinc at 22,500.00 yuan per ton, and lead at 16,870.00 yuan per ton [6][44] - The report indicates a tightening supply of copper concentrate and a favorable outlook for copper prices due to ongoing infrastructure investments and demand in sectors like electric vehicles [17][71] Small Metals - The report notes that magnesium prices have remained firm due to cost increases and environmental inspections in certain regions [14] - The market for molybdenum and vanadium is stable, with steel mills beginning to procure, although price movements are limited [15][79] - The US has initiated anti-dumping investigations on metal silicon imports, which may impact market dynamics [78]

证券研究报告 2025年05月13日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 24&25Q1总结：资源端金&铜领涨，材料端盈利大幅提升 作者： 分析师 刘奕町 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523050001 分析师 曾先毅 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524060002 分析师 胡十尹 SAC执业证书编号：S1110525010002 联系人 吴亚宁 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） • 24-25Q1有色金属板块整体情况：资源端金&铜领涨，材料端盈利大幅提升。指数表现方面，24年全年有色板块涨幅为3.2%，低于沪深300指数，板块Q1大幅上 涨，之后主要由于宏观预期扰动大幅回落。25Q1有色板块涨幅为12%，位列申万一级行业之首，主要系有色板块主要品种价格表现强势，一方面特朗普关税政策 推升通胀预期，金价中枢持续抬升，另一方面3月是有色金属需求旺季，铜铝持续去库价格强势，高价格中枢下相关企业业绩释放预期增强。 • 贵金属：金价上涨带动企业盈利同比大增。 2024年黄金行业实现营业总收入2915.88亿元，同比+2.83%。 25Q1实现营收838 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][18]. Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI is weakening, indicating a potential economic turning point, leading to a weak performance in basic metals [6][11]. - Despite short-term price weakness in basic metals, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside potential, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 29,468.06 billion and a circulating market value of 27,667.90 billion [3]. - The A-share market overall rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.07 percentage points [21][25]. Economic Factors - The April manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49, indicating contraction, with new orders PMI at 49.2 [36]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI also declined to 48.7, reflecting similar trends [38]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index dropped significantly to -18.5 [47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: Trade uncertainties and weak demand expectations have led to a decline in aluminum prices post-holiday. The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remains stable at 43.835 million tons [9][55]. - **Alumina**: The supply-demand balance is tight, with production decreasing and some companies reportedly violating production regulations, creating short-term bullish sentiment [12]. - **Copper**: The processing fees for copper concentrate are declining, while domestic refined copper production is increasing, indicating a deepening conflict in the mining and metallurgy sectors [14]. - **Zinc**: Domestic refined zinc production is growing, with social inventories at historically low levels [16]. Inventory and Pricing - Overall inventory levels for basic metals are low, with specific metrics indicating a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory to 694,000 tons [10][57]. - The current price for electrolytic aluminum is around 19,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.49% decrease [57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. It offers market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, with an overall cautious and diversified view on the market trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: International gold prices rose 0.57% last Friday. Multiple factors influenced the market, and with the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to hold long gold positions. The gold - silver ratio remained above 100, and it is advised to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] - **Silver**: After the holiday, the pattern of strong gold and weak silver remained. With the gold - silver ratio above 100, it is recommended to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated on Friday, and the US copper strengthened before the morning session. The short - term market risk appetite was boosted by the Sino - US negotiation, leading to stronger copper prices. The tight supply of copper ore continued [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum rose 0.54% on Friday. The supply side maintained high - load production, and the demand side saw a slight increase in the start - up rate. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose 3.06% on Friday. The supply side had reduced production due to maintenance, while the demand side had an increase in operating capacity. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price fell on Friday. The supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it is recommended to wait and see as the downward driving force is limited [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell 4.46% week - on - week. The supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed in May, and it is recommended to hold short positions or wait and see [3] - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract rose. The supply is expected to be flat or slightly lower in May, and long positions can be held due to the issue of the number of registered warehouse receipts being far less than the positions [3] - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated on Friday. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and it is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short - term [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract of rebar was weakly oscillating. The supply - demand of steel was seasonally deteriorating, but the contradiction was not significant. It is expected that the steel futures price will oscillate widely, and it is recommended to hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions [5] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore was horizontally oscillating. The supply - demand was neutral to strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained. It is recommended to try short positions on the 2509 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [5] - **Coking Coal**: The main contract of coking coal was weakly oscillating. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, and it is recommended to wait and see [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday. The supply was loose in the near - term in South America and the sowing in the US was accelerating in the long - term. The US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic soybeans are short - term bearish and medium - term follow the international market [6] - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn was narrowly oscillating. The supply - demand was tightening, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to be bullish [7] - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar both rose. The raw sugar's later trend will be affected by Brazil's crushing progress and sugar - alcohol ratio. Domestic sugar is short - term bullish and long - term bearish [7] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price was flat, and the Zhengzhou cotton price rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [7] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil rose. The supply was seasonally increasing, and the demand was improving. It is in a seasonally weak stage, and attention should be paid to relevant reports and policies [7] - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs was narrowly oscillating. The supply was high and the demand was weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs was narrowly oscillating. The supply will increase, and the price is expected to decline resistantly. Attention should be paid to the enterprises' slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening trends [7] - **Apples**: The main contract of apples fell last week. The new - season production is worried due to extreme weather, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating and long - term bearish [9] - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to hedge after the premium is restored [9] - **PTA**: The PTA market has short - term supply pressure relief but long - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and look for short - selling opportunities in the far - month contracts [9] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see with the improvement of the macro - atmosphere [9][10] - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to hedge [10] - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating [10] - **MEG**: The MEG market is in a de - stocking pattern in May, and it is recommended to operate within a range [10] - **Crude Oil**: The short - term price is supported by seasonal demand, but the long - term supply surplus is significant. It is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Styrene**: The main contract of styrene fell slightly on Friday. The supply and demand are expected to weaken slightly in the later period. It is short - term oscillating, and the upward movement is restricted by the import window [11] - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash fell. The supply has a reduction expectation but the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [11] Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The US is negotiating tariffs with China. The supply of the US line overflows, and the European line freight is under pressure. The overall freight rate expectation is pessimistic, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light long position in the 8 - 10 period [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings but gives trend intensities for each commodity: - Gold: 1 [8] - Silver: -1 [8] - Copper: 1 [12] - Aluminum: -1 [15] - Alumina: 0 [15] - Zinc: 0 [17] - Lead: -1 [19] - Nickel: 0 [23] - Stainless steel: 0 [23] - Tin: -1 [29] - Industrial silicon: -1 [33] - Polysilicon: -1 [33] - Lithium carbonate: 0 [36] 2. Core Views - Gold: Data is better than expected [2][4] - Silver: Experiences an oscillatory decline [2][4] - Copper: Firm spot prices support the price [2][10] - Aluminum: Lacks upward momentum [2][13] - Alumina: Trades in a low - level consolidation [2][13] - Zinc: Moves in an oscillatory manner [2][16] - Lead: Faces short - term pressure [2][19] - Nickel: The upside and downside spaces converge, and nickel prices return to narrow - range oscillations [2][21] - Stainless steel: Spot prices decline to repair the basis, and there is still support below the futures price [2][21] - Tin: Prices weakened during the holiday [2][24] - Industrial silicon: The weak state of the futures market continues [2][30] - Polysilicon: The fundamental situation remains weak [2][31] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand surplus continues, and the weak pattern may be difficult to change [2][34] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of沪金2506 was 794.80 with a daily increase of 1.86%, and the night - session closing price was 809.28 with a 1.60% increase. The SPDR gold ETF持仓 decreased by 5. For silver, the closing price of沪银2506 was 8235 with a 0.64% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8275.00 with a 0.45% increase. The SLV白银ETF持仓 (the day before) decreased by 57 [5]. - **News**: Various macro - events such as high - level economic dialogues, central bank policy introductions, and geopolitical events may impact the market [5][9]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 77,600 with a 0.49% increase, and the night - session closing price was 78320 with a 0.93% increase. The伦铜3M电子盘 had a 4.32% increase. The注销仓单 ratio of伦铜 was 44.45%, down 0.45% [10]. - **News**: The EU plans to expand counter - measures against US goods. The Fed may delay interest rate cuts. A Peruvian mine halted production due to an accident. Global refined copper is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [10][12]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 19785, down 125. The沪氧化铝主力合约 closed at 2675, down 54. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises' profit was 3387.46, down 88.38. The domestic aluminum锭社会库存 was 64.10 million tons, down 0.80 million tons [13]. - **News**: A Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plant conducted a spot alumina procurement tender, and a Shanxi alumina plant stopped a production line due to raw material issues [13][15]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22355, down 0.38%. The伦锌3M电子盘 increased by 1.04%. The LME CASH - 3M升贴水 was - 37.09, down 4.09 [16]. - **News**: Central bank and regulatory authorities will introduce a package of financial policies [17]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16700, down 0.83%. The伦铅3M电子盘 decreased by 1.30%. The沪铅期货库存 increased by 1331 tons [19]. - **News**: Central bank and regulatory authorities will introduce a package of financial policies [19]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of沪镍主力 was 124,630, up 910. The不锈钢主力 closed at 12,735, up 65. The 8 - 12%高镍生铁 (factory price) was 959, down 10 [21]. - **News**: An Indonesian nickel - iron project is increasing production capacity, and Indonesia has adjusted resource tax rates for nickel products [21][22][23]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 260,970 with a 0.26% increase, and the night - session closing price was 262,210 with a 0.73% increase. The伦锡3M电子盘 increased by 3.61%. The伦锡 inventory was 2,655, unchanged [25]. - **News**: Various macro - events may impact the market [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The Si2506收盘价 was 8,325, down 215. The PS2506收盘价 was 36,410, down 835. The industrial silicon现货升贴水 (against华东Si5530) was + 1020, up 100 [31]. - **News**: Longi Green Energy signed a major cooperation agreement in the photovoltaic field [33]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: The 2507合约 (closing price) was 65,260, down 700. The battery - grade碳酸锂 was 67,100, down 850. The lithium辉石精矿 (6%, CIF China) was 767, down 6 [34]. - **News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. BYD's new - energy vehicle sales increased [34][36].