摘要北京时间周四(12月18日)亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.367附近，现货黄金开盘于4340.68美元/盎 司，目前交投于4332.10美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于974.48元/克附近，沪金主力交投于980.00元/克附 近。 北京时间周四(12月18日)亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.367附近，现货黄金开盘于4340.68美元/盎司，目 前交投于4332.10美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于974.48元/克附近，沪金主力交投于980.00元/克附近。 上一交易日美元指数收涨0.18%，报99.319，现货黄金收涨0.81%，报4337.16美元/盎司。在现货黄金下 跌之际，其他贵金属纷纷上涨：现货白银收涨3.82%，报66.17美元/盎司；现货铂金收涨2.62%，报 1896.20美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨2.52%，至1646.50美元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 12月17日COMEX黄金库存1119.46吨，较前一交易日保持不变；COMEX白银库存14088.35吨，较前一 交易日减少27.85吨。 09:00中国11月Swift人民币在全球支付中占比 10:00美国总统特朗普发表全国讲话 1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，铂、钯表现偏强 ——中信期货晨报20251218 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4578.2 | 1.75% | 0.09% | 1.61% | -0.86% | 16.76% | 航运 贵金属 | 集运欧线 | 1699. ...

受避险需求和技术性买盘拉动，黄金价格当日小幅上涨，白银价格则大幅攀升再创新高，盘中交易一度达到每盎司67.18美元。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价17日上涨0.90%，收于每盎司4371.40美元；当天3月交割的白银期货价格上涨4.92%，收于 每盎司66.44美元。 今年黄金和白银价格表现惊人，分别上涨超过65%和100%。加拿大蒙特利尔银行预计，贵金属价格在2026年仍有上涨空间。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进 行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 来源：新华财经专业终端 今年以来，白银价格上涨约130%，是同期黄金期货涨幅的2倍。部分原因是白银库存趋紧以及零售和工业需求强劲 ...

美国对委内瑞拉的武力威胁引发了市场对黄金和白银的避险需求。与此同时，在美国封锁进出委内瑞拉的油轮后，原油价格也出现上涨。纽约商品交易 所原油期货价格当日收涨2.92%，报56.74美元／桶，从八个月来的最低水平反弹。 与此同时，据知情人士透露，美国正准备对俄罗斯能源部门实施新一轮制裁。 新华财经纽约12月17日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价17日上涨0.90%，收于每盎司4371.40美元；当天3月 交割的白银期货价格上涨4.92%，收于每盎司66.44美元。 受避险需求和技术性买盘拉动，黄金价格当日小幅上涨，白银价格则大幅攀升再创新高，盘中交易一度达到每盎司67.18美元。 今年以来，白银价格上涨约130%，是同期黄金期货涨幅的2倍。部分原因是白银库存趋紧以及零售和工业需求强劲。不断扩张的太阳能、电动汽车和数据 中心行业对白银的需求尤其强劲。 （文章来源：新华财经） 来源：新华财经专业终端 今年黄金和白银价格表现惊人，分别上涨超过65%和100%。加拿大蒙特利尔银行预计，贵金属价格在2026年仍有上涨空间。 ...

Group 1 - If the AI hype continues to fade, the Chinese stock market may outperform the US stock market [1] - Concerns about US tech stocks have resurfaced, with the S&P 500 index down nearly 2% from its recent peak [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve may be more willing to cut interest rates next year than previously assumed [2] - The upcoming employment reports will be crucial in determining whether the Fed will resume easing policies, with a focus on the unemployment rate rather than overall non-farm payroll growth [2] - Goldman expects the easing cycle to extend into 2026, with the federal funds target rate potentially dropping to 3% or lower [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the price increase of gold will slow down by 2026 due to reduced purchases by central banks and ETFs [3] - By Q4 2026, gold prices are expected to reach $4,800 per ounce, driven by stronger retail demand in China and increased central bank buying [3] - Silver is anticipated to underperform gold, with a peak shortage expected in 2025 due to declining solar equipment installations [3] Group 4 - A Bank of America survey indicates that 53% of investors believe the dollar is overvalued, up from 45% in November [4] - Investors are currently underweight in the dollar compared to historical levels, with short positions in the dollar considered the third most crowded trade [4] Group 5 - Concerns about the AI bubble have eased slightly but remain high, with 38% of investors identifying it as the biggest tail risk [5] - Private credit has emerged as a new risk factor, with 14% of fund managers considering it the largest tail risk for the coming year [5] Group 6 - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan has increased due to strong export performance, but the governor is not expected to signal a hawkish stance [6] - November exports grew for the third consecutive month, indicating a recovery from previous economic contraction [6] Group 7 - The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce notes that softening US employment data may prompt the Fed to consider earlier rate cuts in 2026 [8] - The labor market's cooling is expected to weaken the Fed's resolve to maintain current rates, increasing the likelihood of policy easing [8] Group 8 - China International Capital Corporation remains optimistic about bank stocks' absolute and relative performance, highlighting their high dividend yields and quality development phase [9] - The focus is on dividend yield and certainty, which depend on valuation and profit growth [9] Group 9 - Tianfeng Securities anticipates a more pronounced credit front-loading trend in 2026, with a positive outlook for early-year loans [10] - The bank sector may face challenges from high-interest term deposits and stock market fluctuations impacting general deposits [10] Group 10 - Tianfeng Securities expects a non-symmetric principle for deposit rate cuts in 2026, with a higher probability of implementation in the second quarter [11] - The report suggests a potential need for a rate cut before the Spring Festival, with a range of 25-50 basis points [11] Group 11 - China Galaxy Securities indicates that leading real estate companies are demonstrating strong operational management capabilities, which may enhance their market share [12]

今日白银板块表现活跃，兴业银锡、株冶集团、盛达资源、贵研铂业、豫光金铅领涨，白银题材相关企 业整理如下： 国城矿业（000688.SZ） 最新股价：25.34元 日涨幅：+9.98% 最新股价：34.95元 日涨幅：+6.46% 亮点：主要矿企位于内蒙古（国内铅锌银矿主产地之一） 兴业银锡（000426.SZ） 亮点：子公司银漫矿业以铅锌银矿为主，是国内大型白银生产矿山之一 株冶集团（600961.SH） 最新股价：16.00元 日涨幅：+6.45% 亮点：主冶炼产品包含白银，拥有高产能白银的生产能力 盛达资源（000603.SZ） 最新股价：30.71元 日涨幅：+6.01% 亮点：白银龙头企业，控股6家矿业子公司 贵研铂业（600459.SH） 最新股价：19.00元 日涨幅：+5.61% 亮点："贵研"牌银锭为上期所、上金所仓单品牌 豫光金铅（600531.SH） 最新股价：10.86元 日涨幅：+4.73% 亮点：国内白银生产领域龙头企业，主营白银等有色金属的冶炼与销售，白银产品以银锭为主 白银有色（601212.SH） 最新股价：5.18元 日涨幅：+4.65% 山金国际（00975.SZ） 亮点： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates a significant potential for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, with U.S. officials suggesting that 90% of the issues may have been resolved, although some details still need negotiation [1] - Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov expressed optimism about reaching a diplomatic solution, stating that both sides are "on the verge" of an agreement and that they are ready to finalize it soon [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky acknowledged progress on security issues but highlighted that territorial disputes remain a painful topic, as Russia maintains its claims while Ukraine cannot concede further [1] Group 2 - The current trading situation for silver shows a strong bullish trend, with prices recovering from previous declines and reaching 14.955 yuan per gram, marking a 3.99% increase [2] - The daily chart indicates that silver is in an overbought condition according to the RSI indicator, suggesting caution for potential pullbacks, while the DMI shows sufficient upward momentum for further price increases [2] - Key support levels for silver are identified between 14.0 and 14.20 yuan, while resistance levels are noted between 14.50 and 15.00 yuan [2]

据交易所数据显示，12月17日，中国白银集团(00815)盘中上涨5.88%，截至11:06，报0.72元/股，成交 1841.61万元。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：行情君 中国白银集团有限公司是一家全产业白银及贵金属综合企业，主营业务包括白银制造、珠宝新零售及白 银交易。该公司是香港上市的中国领先民营白银生产商，也是伦敦金银市场协会的中国成员企业之一， 连续12年获评为"中国用户最喜爱20家白银品牌"。 截至2025年中报，中国白银集团营业总收入23.3亿元、净利润5491.1万元。 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

周三(12月17日)白银价格重拾迅猛上涨势头，一举突破关键的65美元关口，刷新历史高位至65.99美元。 （来源：tradingview） 这轮上涨由罕见的多重因素共同推动：一方面，白银市场持续存在供应缺口；另一方面，来自工业领域和投资者的需 求均保持强劲。全球调查显示，白银市场已连续第五年出现结构性短缺，矿产供应增长受限，而可再生能源、电子产 品及其他工业领域的消费却持续扩大。 宏观因素同样发挥了重要作用。市场对货币政策趋于宽松以及实际收益率持续被压缩的预期，降低了持有白银等无收 益资产的机会成本，吸引了寻求分散配置和通胀对冲的机构资金。白银兼具关键工业原材料和价值储存工具的双重属 性，使其投资者基础超越了传统的贵金属市场参与者，ETF资金流入及零售投资需求进一步推高了价格。 今年以来，白银涨幅明显超过黄金，反映出其更高的工业属性权重，以及与脱碳和数字化相关行业需求的显著增强。 白银价格跃升至高于原油的水平——这一数十年未见的罕见现象——凸显了基本面因素与投机力量在大宗商品市场中 可能形成的共振效应。 不过，分析人士提醒，白银的价格波动性依然偏高。获利了结行为，以及白银对宏观经济信号（如利率预期和美国就 业 ...